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2017 PROPERTY MARKET BRIEF National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), Valuation and Property Services Department, Ministry of Finance Malaysia Property Market Division 23 March 2018
Transcript

2017

PROPERTY MARKET BRIEF

National Property Information Centre (NAPIC),

Valuation and Property Services Department,

Ministry of Finance Malaysia

Property Market Division

23 March 2018

2

State of Malaysia Economy

3

State of Malaysia Economy

Q3 2017: 103.1 points

Q3 2017: 101.5 points Q3 2017: 77.1 points

Q4 2017: 82.6 points

4

State of Malaysia Economy

Purchase of Residential

Year

Loan

Application

(RM Billion)

Loan

Approval

(RM Billion)

% Change

Loan

Application

% Change

Loan

Approval

% of Loan

Approval

over Loan

Application

2007 79.14 48.15 48.3 46.6 60.8

2008 98.31 57.95 24.2 20.4 59.0

2009 130.39 70.48 32.6 21.6 54.1

2010 166.43 84.23 27.6 19.5 50.6

2011 186.79 95.16 12.2 13.0 50.9

2012 193.74 92.83 3.7 -2.4 47.9

2013 245.90 121.00 26.9 30.3 49.2

2014 223.85 121.09 -9.0 0.1 54.1

2015 206.03 103.41 -8.0 -14.6 50.2

2016 208.55 87.57 1.2 -15.3 42.0

2017 239.81 101.52 15.0 15.9 42.3

5

State of Malaysia Economy

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Loan Application 98.31 130.39 166.43 186.79 193.74 245.90 223.85 206.03 208.55 239.81

Loan Approval 57.95 70.48 84.23 95.16 92.83 121.00 121.09 103.41 87.57 101.52

% Change Loan Approval 20.4 21.6 19.5 13.0 -2.4 30.3 0.1 -14.6 -15.3 15.9

% Change Loan Application 24.2 32.6 27.6 12.2 3.7 26.9 -9.0 -8.0 1.2 15.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

Perc

enta

ge C

han

ge

RM

Bill

ion

Loan Application & Approval for Residential Purchase

6

State of Malaysia Economy

Purchase of Non-Residential

Year

Loan

Application

(RM Billion)

Loan

Approval

(RM Billion)

% Change

Loan

Application

% Change

Loan

Approval

% of Loan

Approval

over Loan

Application

2007 39.13 25.15 64.8 64.9 64.3

2008 46.21 30.66 18.1 21.9 66.4

2009 53.04 26.44 14.8 -13.8 49.9

2010 79.84 39.67 50.5 50.0 49.7

2011 99.32 52.23 24.4 31.7 52.6

2012 98.89 52.77 -0.4 1.0 53.4

2013 119.23 51.36 20.6 -2.7 43.1

2014 103.39 50.94 -13.3 -0.8 49.3

2015 90.98 38.41 -12.0 -24.6 42.2

2016 79.94 32.91 -12.1 -14.3 41.2

2017 86.04 31.12 7.6 -5.4 36.2

7

State of Malaysia Economy

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Loan Application 46.21 53.04 79.84 99.32 98.89 119.23 103.39 90.98 79.94 86.04

Loan Approval 30.66 26.44 39.67 52.23 52.77 51.36 50.94 38.41 32.91 31.12

% Change Loan Approval 21.9 -13.8 50.0 31.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -24.6 -14.3 -5.4

% Change Loan Application 18.1 14.8 50.5 24.4 -0.4 20.6 -13.3 -12.0 -12.1 7.6

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

Perc

enta

ge C

han

ge

RM

Bill

ion

Loan Application & Approval for Non-Residential Purchase

VOLUME & VALUE OF PROPERTY

TRANSACTIONS 2017

Overall Volume & Value of Property Transactions

9

Volume Value

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential -9.7% 0.4% -4.6% -13.9% -4.1%

Commercial -16.5% 3.6% -10.6% -25.3% -6.7%

Industrial -15.7% -3.8% -13.0% -20.4% 2.1%

Agriculture -12.4% 2.0% -7.5% 3.6% 1.8%

Development Land -6.8% -1.9% -2.4% -7.9% 0.2%

Total -10.9% 0.8% -5.7% -11.5% -2.7%

Malaysia Country Paper 10

Volume Value

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential 6.3% 13.9% -10.5% -10.7% 4.4%

Commercial 28.0% -10.5% -17.1% 36.1% -29.2%

Industrial 2.7% 17.7% -17.5% 0.4% -3.1%

Agriculture -7.0% -4.2% 2.9% 9.6% -5.9%

Development Land -8.8% 13.5% 15.4% -30.2% 18.8%

Total 6.7% 7.0% -8.0% -3.0% -3.8%

Movements of Volume & Value of Property Transactions by Sector

11

Market Share by Sub-sector

Volume of Transactions by Sub-Sector in 2017 Value of Transactions by Sub-Sector in 2017

Market Share Market Share

12

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential 197,722 223,270 229,185 248,514 292,661 331,888 311,357 322,925 351,663

Commercial 491,601 599,032 632,784 676,505 1,036,852 896,055 830,801 1,513,691 1,147,872

Industrial 847,914 999,170 1,101,463 1,202,517 1,464,549 1,791,287 1,698,944 2,142,755 2,033,601

Agriculture 120,273 140,373 222,162 176,984 187,890 176,459 196,239 207,692 192,075

Development Land 484,475 613,634 827,986 909,953 891,239 1,031,466 1,220,003 924,592 1,096,641

Total 239,628 285,283 320,230 334,125 399,790 424,346 414,135 453,798 448,457

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Average Value/Transaction by Sub-sector

13

Volume & Value of Residential Transaction

Volume Value

14

Residential Transaction Volume Change

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%W

PK

L

Pu

traj

aya

Lab

uan

Sela

ngo

r

Joh

or

Pu

lau

Pin

ang

Per

ak

Neg

eri S

emb

ilan

Mel

aka

Ked

ah

Pah

ang

Tere

ngg

anu

Kel

anta

n

Per

lis

Sab

ah

Sara

wak

Residential Transaction Volume Trend by State

% Change 2015

% Change 2016

% Change 2017

15

Volume & Value of Commercial Transaction

Volume Value

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume 43,674 41,082 34,298 35,528 31,776 23,745 22,162

% Change 9.7% -5.9% -16.5% 3.6% -10.6% -25.3% -6.7%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

% C

han

ge

Vo

lum

e (U

nit

s)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value 27,636. 27,792. 35,561. 31,835. 26,399. 35,942. 25,439.

% Change 15.9% 0.6% 28.0% -10.5% -17.1% 36.1% -29.2%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

% C

han

ge

Val

ue

(RM

Mill

ion

)

16

Commercial Transaction Volume Change

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

WP

KL

Pu

traj

aya

Lab

uan

Sela

ngo

r

Joh

or

Pu

lau

Pin

ang

Per

ak

Neg

eri S

emb

ilan

Mel

aka

Ked

ah

Pah

ang

Tere

ngg

anu

Kel

anta

n

Per

lis

Sab

ah

Sara

wak

Commercial Transaction Volume Trend by State

% Change 2015

% Change 2016

% Change 2017

17

Volume & Value of Industrial Transaction

Volume Value

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value 11,542. 12,005. 12,328. 14,509. 11,970. 12,018. 11,642.

% Change 17.4% 4.0% 2.7% 17.7% -17.5% 0.4% -3.1%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

% C

han

ge

Val

ue

(RM

Mill

ion

)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume 10,479 9,984 8,418 8,100 7,046 5,609 5,725

% Change 6.5% -4.7% -15.7% -3.8% -13.0% -20.4% 2.1%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

% C

han

ge

Vo

lum

e (U

nit

s)

18

Volume & Value of Agriculture Transaction

Volume Value

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value 18,822. 14,278. 13,283. 12,723. 13,090. 14,346. 13,500.

% Change 65.4% -24.1% -7.0% -4.2% 2.9% 9.6% -5.9%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

% C

han

ge

Val

ue

(RM

Mill

ion

)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Volume 84,726 80,679 70,698 72,104 66,705 69,078 70,290

% Change 4.5% -4.8% -12.4% 2.0% -7.5% 3.6% 1.8%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

% C

han

ge

Vo

lum

e (U

nit

s)

VOLUME & VALUE OF

PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN

MAJOR STATES

1. KUALA LUMPUR2. SELANGOR3. JOHOR4. PULAU PINANG

Transaction Volume By Sub-Sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 15,751 15,151 13,899 11,252 10,856

Commercial 4,213 4,776 4,061 3,186 3,238

Development Land 383 410 383 345 297

Industrial 206 253 231 167 115

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Tran

sact

ion

Nu

mb

ers

Kuala Lumpur Market Activity 2017

• Residential sub-sector remained the most dominant sector, capturing 74.8% of the transactions in the property market.

• Followed by Commercial (22.3%), Development Land (2.0%) and Industrial(0.8%) sub-sectors.

Market Share

TOTAL 20,553 20,590 18,574 14,950 14,506

Kuala Lumpur Market Activity 2017

• In term of value, residential sub-sector took the lead with 36.3% share.

• Followed by commercial (31.8%) and development land (30.8%) sub-sectors.

Market Share

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 10,604.34 11,676.97 10,349.57 8,968.33 9,693.23

Commercial 6,533.36 7,466.65 6,596.59 19,986.43 8,467.66

Development Land 2,465.48 4,221.20 6,040.99 4,867.82 8,226.65

Industrial 350.58 410.91 399.98 397.89 278.91

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

Val

ue

(RM

/Mill

ion

)

Transaction Value By Sub-Sector

TOTAL 19,953.76 23,775.73 23,387.13 34,220.47 26,666.45

Kuala Lumpur Market Activity 2017

In summary…

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential -19.3 -3.8 -8.3 -19.0 -3.5

Commercial -12.4 13.4 -15.0 -21.5 1.6

Industrial -4.2 22.8 -8.7 -27.7 -31.1

Development Land -10.7 7.0 -6.6 -9.9 -13.9

Total % Change -17.7 0.2 -9.8 -19.5 -3.0

Sign of turnaround from -19.5% in 2016 to a mere of -3.0% in 2017

Transaction Numbers By Sub-Sector

Selangor Market Activity 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 64,269 60,903 57,827 48,879 47,551

Commercial 7,083 8,409 7,472 5,601 5,154

Industrial 2,681 2,545 2,037 1,638 1,957

Agriculture 5,312 4,975 4,524 4,112 4,160

Development Land 2,681 2,545 2,037 1,638 2,678

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Tran

sact

ion

Nu

mb

ers

• In 2017, residential sub-sector remained the most dominant sector, capturing 77.4% of the transactions in the property market.

• Followed by commercial (8.3%) and agriculture (6.8%) sub-sectors.

Market Share

TOTAL 84,039 81,391 75,912 63,884 61,500

Selangor Market Activity 2017

Transaction Value By Sub-Sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential 26,086.45 26,954.22 24,868.55 21,933.66 22,584.47

Commercial 8,125.52 8,041.43 6,894.38 5,985.41 6,612.06

Industrial 5,951.33 7,637.87 5,589.58 5,891.39 6,168.90

Agricultural 2,097.29 1,839.80 2,245.67 3,229.96 1,152.53

Development 4,255.74 2,990.57 7,555.68 3,664.80 4,016.67

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

Val

ue

(RM

/Mill

ion

)

TOTAL 46,516.33 47,463.90 47,153.87 40,705.22 40,534.63

• In terms of value, residential sub-sector dominated 55.7% of the total.

Market Share

Selangor Market Activity 2017

In summary…

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential 9.6 -5.2 -5.1 -15.5 -2.6

Commercial -6.8 18.7 -11.1 -25.0 -8.6

Industrial 14.6 -5.1 -20.0 -19.6 19.5

Agriculture 23.7 -6.3 -9.1 -9.1 1.2

Development Land 21.8 4.3 11.9 -10.4 -1.8

Total % Change -9.2 -2.9 -5.9 -15.9 -2.3

Sign of turnaround from -15.9% in 2016 to -2.3% in 2017

Transaction Numbers By Sub-Sector

Johor Market Activity 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 33,651 39,017 31,060 26,186 24,886

Commercial 5,083 5,774 4,507 3,359 3,144

Industrial 1,214 1,255 1,134 730 799

Agricultural 10,048 10,001 9,027 8,294 8,180

Development & Others 2,783 2,500 2,000 1,497 1,630

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Tran

sact

ion

Nu

mb

ers

• Residential sub-sector remained the most dominant sector, capturing 64.1% of the transactions in the property market.

• Followed by Agricultural (21.6%) and Commercial (8.1%) sub-sectors.

Market Share

TOTAL 52,774 58,541 47,725 40,066 38,639

Johor Market Activity 2017Transaction Value By Sub-Sector Between 2013 – 2017p

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 9,282.77 13,737.82 9,283.57 8,577.70 8,643.11

Commercial 11,234.25 6,424.17 3,712.44 2,845.25 3,378.20

Industrial 2,249.85 2,847.45 2,331.12 2,026.78 1,895.63

Agricultural 3,424.13 3,344.05 2,819.57 3,250.85 2,769.69

Development & Others 3,915.85 6,701.39 3,505.18 2,747.10 1,925.19

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

Val

ue

(RM

/Mill

ion

)

TOTAL 30,106.84 33,054.88 21,651.87 19,447.68 18,611.82

Market Share

In terms of value, residential sub-sector dominated 46.4% of the total.

Johor Market Activity 2017

In summary…

Sign of turnaround from -16.1% in 2016 to a mere of -3.1%

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 56.1 15.9 -20.4 -15.7 -5.0

Commercial 43.0 13.6 -21.9 -25.5 -6.4

Industrial 28.5 3.4 -9.6 -35.6 9.5

Agricultural -25.5 -0.5 -9.7 -8.1 1.0

Development & Others 26.6 -10.2 -20.0 -25.2 9.0

Total % Change 41.2 10.9 -18.5 -16.1 -3.1

Transaction Numbers By Sub-Sector

Pulau Pinang Market Activity 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 17,700 18,410 15,291 13,244 12,090

Commercial 2,240 2,397 2,140 1,696 1,344

Industrial 549 504 632 443 452

Agriculture 1873 2360 2020 1599 1509

Development & others 1984 1884 1472 1370 1197

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Tran

sact

ion

Nu

mb

ers

2014 2015 2016 2017p

• In 2017, residential sub-sector remained the most dominant sector, capturing 72.9% of the transactions in the property market.

• Followed by agricultural (9.1%) and commercial (8.1%) sub-sectors.

Market Share

TOTAL 24,346 25,555 21,555 18,352 16,592

13,244 12,090

2013

Pulau Pinang Market Activity 2017

Transaction Value By Sub-Sector

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Residential 7,093.06 7,578.95 6,172.97 5,364.58 5,412.86

Commercial 1,802.88 1,738.99 2,069.98 1,192.18 1,049.72

Industrial 804.13 699.66 734.66 908.54 678.17

Agricultural 722.73 996.20 737.67 485.75 1,206.02

Development & Others 3,068.65 2,756.25 1,987.09 1,610.91 2,040.61

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

Val

ue

(R

M/M

illio

n)

TOTAL 13,491.45 13,770.05 11,702.37 9,561.96 10,387.37

2013 2013 2015 2016 2017

5,364.58 5,412.86

• In terms of value, all sub-sectors recorded upward trend with the exception of commercial and industrial sub-sectors, down by 11.9%and 25.4% respectively.

Market Share

Pulau Pinang Market Activity 2017

In summary…

SECTOR 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential -23.9 4.0 -16.9 -13.4 -8.7

Commercial -20.7 7.0 -10.7 -20.7 -20.8

Industrial -24.2 -8.2 25.4 -29.9 2.0

Agriculture -5.3 26.0 -14.4 -20.8 -5.6

Development

Land -9.5 -4.5 -23.5 -4.5 -12.6

Total % Change -21.4 5.0 -15.7 -14.9 -9.6

The % change of transactions show a sign of turnaround from -14.9% in 2016 to -9.6%.

SUMMARY OFVOLUME & VALUE OF

PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN MAJOR STATES

Malaysia Country Paper 32

SUB SECTOR

NUMBER OF TRANSACTION 2017 VALUE OF TRANSACTION 2017 (RM Mil)

KUALA LUMPUR

SELANGOR JOHOR PULAU PINANG

KUALA LUMPUR

SELANGOR JOHOR PULAU PINANG

Residential 10,856 47,551 24,886 12,090 9,693.23 22,584.47 8,643.11 5,412.86

Commercial 3,238 5,154 3,144 1,344 8,467.66 6,612.06 3,378.20 1,049.72

Industrial 115 1,957 799 452 278.91 6,168.90 1,895.63 6,78.17

Agriculture 0 4,160 8,180 1,509 0 1,152.53 2,769.69 1,206.02

Development Land 297 2,678 1,627 1,194 8,226.65 4,016.67 1,920.06 2,039.57

33

Thank You


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