‹#› 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. S. Beau Waldrup May 16, 2019
Transcript
‹#›
2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand,
supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information
from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout
2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including
energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic
regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions,
technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors
discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our
website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon
Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
S. Beau Waldrup
May 16, 2019
2 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
The energy equation
living standards People energy needs
3 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy ‹#›
Global trends continue to evolve
+1.7 billion
people
2x
GDP
Percent
Growth from 2016 level 2016
4 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
0
1
2
3
2000 2020 2040
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2020 2040
Population
Billion
OECD
Rest of
World
China
India
Energy Drivers – Population & Households
Households
Billion
Urbanization
% Population
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2000 2020 2040
Africa
OECD
China
India
Africa
Source: United Nations
5 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2020 2040
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2020 2040
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2020 2040
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2020 2040
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile
Billion People
OECD China India Africa
Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates
Age 0 – 14
Age 15 – 64
Age 65+
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Purchasing power expands
Thousand PPP$
GDP per capita
United States
Europe OECD
China
World
India
Other AP Non-OECD
Global middle class
Billion people
Latin America
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Source: The Brookings Institution
Africa/
Middle East
Africa
~97% of the
growth comes
from AP, Africa
and ME
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global trends continue to evolve
+1.7 billion
people
2x
GDP
+25%
demand
Percent
Growth from 2016 level 2016
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Other Renewables
Energy demand varies by sector
Primary energy demand by sector
Quadrillion BTUs
'16
'25
'40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Elec/Mkt Heat
Wind/Solar
Hydro/Geo
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Liquids
Energy demand
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Energy savings
China
India
Other AP Non-OECD
Rest of World
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Liquids
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global passenger vehicles increase and
diversify Fleet by type
Million cars
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas/LPG
Full hybrid
Electric/Plug-in/
Fuel cell
Efficiency curbs demand growth
MBDOE
Elec / Fuel
Cell / Hybrid
~
30% of
global fleet
2040 Fleet
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Policy and consumer choices impact demand
Electric vehicles grow rapidly
Million cars
Battery
electrics
Plug-in
hybrids
Liquids demand remains resilient
MBDOE
Total liquids
demand
Light-duty liquids
demand
Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base
Outlook
11 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell
Hybrid
Natural Gas & LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2020 2040
L. America Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Rail
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
Passenger Vehicles
Million
By Fuel
MBDOE
0
1
2
3
2000 2020 2040
Mogas
Kero/Jet
Dist
Fuel Oil
Natural Gas & LPG
Secondary
12 ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy ‹#›
Global trends continue to evolve
+1.7 billion
people
2x
GDP
+25%
demand
+10%
CO2 emissions
-45%
CO2 intensity
Percent
Growth from 2016 level 2016
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy ‹#›
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Billion tonnes
Assessed
Baseline
scenarios
Assessed 2oC
scenarios
2018 Outlook for Energy
EMF27-FT cases include CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes
Baseline and 2oC scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios
Energy CO2 emissions by sector
Billion tonnes
Transportation
Electricity generation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
Energy CO2 emissions by region
Billion tonnes
North America
Europe
China
Other Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
14
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to
lower GHG emissions
(e.g. natural gas,
wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,
CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policy
costs
High policy
costs
Technology advances likely to
reduce costs of policies on society
Technology opportunity landscape
Technology advances likely to reduce costs
of policies on society
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
15
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to
lower GHG emissions
(e.g. natural gas,
wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,
CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policy
costs
High policy
costs
Technology advances likely to
reduce costs of policies on society
Technology opportunity landscape
Technology advances likely to reduce costs
of policies on society
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
BEVs Advanced
biofuels
Wind Nuclear
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to
lower GHG emissions
(e.g. natural gas,
wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,
CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policy
costs
High policy
costs
Technology advances likely to
reduce costs of policies on society
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to
lower GHG emissions
(e.g. natural gas,
wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,
CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy /
technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policy
costs
High policy
costs
Technology advances likely to
reduce costs of policies on society
Res/Comm Transportation
Industrial Power Generation
CCUS CCUS
Solar PV
Solar PV
Hydrogen
Fuel cells
Fuel cell /
hydrogen?
Energy
storage
Energy
Storage?
Energy
Storage?
Energy
storage
Digital
Digital
Digital
Digital
Some images from Getty Images
Technology to drive efficiency gains
‹#›
ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy powers modern economies and
living standards
Global energy needs rise about 25%, led by
non-OECD nations
Electricity demand nearly doubles in non-
OECD nations
Electricity from solar and wind increases
about 400 percent
Natural gas expands role to meet a wide
variety of needs
Oil plays a leading role to aid mobility and
modern products
Decarbonization of the world’s energy
system will accelerate
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