The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Kyle Countryman
International Energy Forum
April 30, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
100 countries
15 demand
sectors
20 fuel
types
Energy Outlook Model
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy Demand
Energy Saved
~500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDP Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.9%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
Percent
By Region
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
Southeast Asia
India
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand
Trillion 2005 $
OECD GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD Demand
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Non OECD Demand Trillion 2005 $
Non OECD GDP
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
2010
2025
2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Middle East Energy Trends
Billion
Population GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.4%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
3.6%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.8%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Middle East Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Other
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Middle East Energy Demand by Country
By Country
Quadrillion BTUs
Iran
Saudi Arabia
UAE
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Other
Iraq
Rest of Middle East
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
Personal
MBDOE
Commercial
MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Conv. Gasoline
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV
Natural gas/LPG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG
2010
2020-2025 Target
2015 Target
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
North
America
Europe
OECD
Other OECD China India Middle East Latin
America
Other Non
OECD
PHV/EV
Full Hybrid
CNG
LPG
Diesel Conv
Mogas Conv
2040
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
30% Global Industrial
demand grows by 30%
from 2010 to 2040.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2015 2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2015 2040
Industrial Demand Shift Continues
Heavy Industry * Chemicals
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
China
India & Africa
Other Non OECD
* Steel, Cement and General Manufacturing
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Power Generation Mix Evolves
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Middle East Electricity
Electricity Generation by Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Electricity Demand
k TWh
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Residential
Commercial
Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 2040
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 2040
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2015 2040
k TWh
Gas
Nuclear Coal
Wind
Other Renewables
Gas w/ CCS
Coal w/ CCS
Electricity Supply Varies Globally
United States k TWh
China
Oil
k TWh
Europe
* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
U.S. Europe China India
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2015 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion Tons
By Region
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
China
Tons per Person Emissions per Capita
2010
2025
2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /
Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be
supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
1
2
3
4
5
2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOE
Liquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
Remaining
Resource
Cumulative
Production
TBO
Resource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was
authorized in advance by IHS.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
3
6
9
12
15
2000 2020 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
2000 2020 2040
Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally
MBDOE Deepwater by Region NGL by Region
MBDOE
North America
Russia-Caspian/Far East
Africa
Latin America Europe
North America
Far East
Africa
Latin America
Russia/Caspian
Europe Middle East
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2015 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2015 2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2015 2040
Natural Gas Grows in All Areas
Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
By Region
BCFD
By Sector
BCFD
Oil
Gas
Russia/Caspian
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America Industrial
Electricity
Generation
Other
Transportation
Coal
Middle East
North America
Europe
Res/Comm
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America
Europe
OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies
BCFD
United States
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
BCFD
Europe Asia Pacific BCFD
Conventional
Pipeline
0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Percent
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040