‹#› 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com . This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Todd Onderdonk Stanford NGI Symposium October 2018
Transcript
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2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Todd OnderdonkStanford NGI SymposiumOctober 2018
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10 100 1000 10000
Energy Fuels Human Development
U.N. Human Development Index2015 Index
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates
2015 Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)
United StatesNorway
Nigeria
Yemen
BangladeshIndia
China
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global trends continue to evolve to 2040
+1.7 billionpeople
2xGDP
+25%demand
+10%CO2 emissions
-45%CO2 intensity
2016
Global middle class
Billion people
Latin America
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Source: The Brookings Institution
Africa/Middle East
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global efficiency limits demand growthEnergy demand Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Energy savings
China
India
Other AP Non-OECD
Rest of World
Share of primary energy demand by region Share of Quadrillion BTUs
World energy-related CO2 emissions relative to energy intensity and CO2 emissions intensity
Reducing CO2 emissions intensity of energy use
Impr
ovin
g en
ergy
effi
cien
cy a
cros
s eco
nom
y
Tonne CO2 per billion BTU of global energy
*Based on average Stanford EMF27 full technology / 450ppm scenarios’ CO2 emissions (~20 billion tonnes including energy and industrial processes), ExxonMobil GDP assumptions consistent with 2018 Outlook
2018 Outlook for Energy performance pathway
2040 hypothetical 2oC performance levels*
18 billion tonnes CO2
33 billion tonnes CO2
36 billion tonnes CO2
Level exceeded
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy use and technology evolve over timePrimary energy demand
