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The FX Technical Report aims to highlight a wide variety

of traded technical formations, expected levels of

increased supply and demand and multi- timeframe

trends on the world’s major currency pairs.

In the process it will attempt to identify risk appetite and,

where appropriate, analyse less liquid and more exotic FX

crosses, sector indices and commodities, namely oil, gold

and silver.

Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used

for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is

correct, and Swissquote Bank and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in

respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or

reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a

recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered

as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece

of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit

dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. See additional disclosures at

the end of this material.

Daily FX Chart Analysis

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Peter Rosenstreich

Swissquote FX Strategy Desk

Peter.Rosenstreich@swissquote.ch

Tel: +41 (0) 58 226 2906

Fax: +41 (0) 58 226 2201

FX Technical Report

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

2

EURUSD

EURUSD was able to recover marginally to 1.2171on ECB Nowotny comments. The emboldened

bulls were able to fill in of the gap from Mondays open (taking out our short term cap at 1.2140) . In

spite of yesterdays bullish correction, we still feel that the downside is vulnerable due to the gloomy

news emulating from Europe and solid downtrend resistance at 1.2184 capping demand. Our target

of 1.2000 remains undamaged.

Should bullish momentum continue to fade, the first levels of support can be found at 1.2046 (25 th

July low), 1.2000 (psychological support) then 1.18670 (7th June low), and 1.1772 (30th Dec 05’ low).

The break of 1.2184 ( downtrend channel), would trigger a move to1.2336 (10th & 19th July highs),.

The not much supply till 1.2439 (multiple support and resistance in June), 1.2685 (June 19th high &

June 20th low), 1.2754 (June 20thhigh), 1.2826 (22ndMay high), 1.2906 (support turned resistance),

1.3066 (8th May high), 1.3081 (gap high), 1.3122 (2nd May low), then 1.3179 (7th May pivot high).

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

3

USDJPY

USDJPY technical's have not really changed this week ,as we bounce around 78.00 , yet the bears

remain in full control. Risk emulating from Europe provided the catalyst for a USDJPY weakness and

means we are heading towards potentially ugly confrontation between USDJPY sellers and the

Japanese authorities who have made it very clear they don’t appreciate yen gains. It just a matter of

time before we challenge our target of 77.66.

Should USDJPY break below the June 6th pivot low and downtrend top, the next areas of supply will

be lying at 77.66 (1stJune low), 77.36 (13thFeb low) then 76.58 (3rd& 17thJan low).

The next levels of resistance remain unchanged at 79.16 (18thJuly high), 80.21 (reversal), 80.62

(2ndMay high), 81.60 (failed corrective rally), 82.56 (6thApril high), 82.99 (3rdApril high), trigger

resistance at 83.40.

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

4

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has taken a beating as economic data failed to impress trader. The sell-off began at the

start of last week and since then bearish pressure has not retreated. The pair has now dropped back

into the 2-month downtrend channel (marginally) , which has shifted our bias to bearish. The low

price for the day was 1.5458 (pushing past weeks low) and price action suggests further losses may

be on the cards this week.

The break of supply zone at 1.5520 (downtrend channel top) opens the way to 1.5405 (8th June low),

1.5390 (6th June low), then 1.5266 (13th Jan low).

The next resistances lie 1.5663 / 78 (June 18th & 19th lows), 1.5739 (18th July high), 1.5776 (23rd May

high), 1.5845 (22nd May high), 1.5954 (1st Mar pivot high).

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

5

USDCHF

USDCHF aggressive sell-off ran out of steam at 0.9873 support and has slowly been grinding higher.

Given the pairs history of rallies then corrections followed by further rallies, we suspect the pullback

to 0.9873 will now be followed by a broader a move towards parity.

The next resistances can be found at 1.0000 (psychological resistance), 1.0070 (1st Dec 11’ pivot

high), 1.0149 (2010 pivot), then 1.0294 (10th Sept 10’ high).

The first levels of support continue to be at 0.9873 (13th July high), 0.9738 (old resistance turned

support), 0.9683 (June 4thpivot high), 0.9584 (5th July close, 6thJuly opening), 0.9419 (17th June

low), 0.9369 (21st May Support), then 0.9183 (7th & 11th May low).

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

6

XAUUSD

Gold has aggressively traded higher over the past few trading sessions, peeking over the $1602

asymmetrical triangle top, a strong reversal signal. However, demand that should have paved the

way for an easy jump to $1616, failed to materialize. And today , there is a slightly bearish tone, with

the commodity threatening to push back into the triangle. The lack of demand combined with the

strong downtrend keep us in a bearish mode.

Further rallies are likely to meet sellers back up through $1616 (multiple supports in June), $1634

(downtrend top), $1641 (8th June high), $1671 (1st May high), $1697 (27th Mar high), $1725 (1st & 2nd

Mar high), then $1764 (3rd Feb high & downtrend top).

In the meantime, first support on the downside remains at $1603 (triangle top), $1580, $1557 (8th

June low), $1527 (16th May low), $1478 (30th June 11’ low) then $1462 (5th May 11’ low).

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

26 July 2012

7

OILUSD

OILUSD has drifted sideways in the past 48 hours, and for now the pair is oscillating between $86

and $89 level. Regardless of the marginal recovery rally yesterday, broader bearish price action

suggests further losses may be on the cards this week. Now that seller have gotten the numbers to

push through $89 support there doesn't seem to much significant demand and should trigger a

broader move to $83.

First levels of supply for oil can be found at $86 (7th June high), $83 (Multiple lows in June) $81 (10th

& 11th June low),$78 (psychological level) for the next support, then $75 (Oct 11’ low) and $71 (Apr

10’ multiple lows).

The first levels of resistance are located at $93 (29th May high) $95 (16th May high), $98 (7th May

high), $101 (downtrend-line), $103 (6th Jan high) and $109 (23rd Feb high).

© Copyright Swissquote Bank SA

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