A Meta Analytical Study on Impact of … doc/2017/IJMIE_JULY2017/IJMRA-11731.pdftried demonetisation...

International Journal of Management, IT & Engineering Vol. 7 Issue 7, July 2017,

ISSN: 2249-0558 Impact Factor: 7.119

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134 International journal of Management, IT and Engineering

http://www.ijmra.us, Email: [email protected]

A Meta Analytical Study on Impact of

Demonetisation In India: A Public Policy

Management Perspective

Prof.Dr.C.Karthikeyan *

Prof Pious Thomas**

Abstract: 'Demonetization' was a shocker to Indians, on the red letter day of 08 Nov 2016.

Common man could not understand the ―demonetized‖ shocker for a while, and could not digest

the ―Demonetization act of stripping two different legal tender units of currencies and the most

prominently circulated one the INR 500 Rupee Note and INR 1000 Rupee Note. These units of

its status as legal tender were removed overnight. Demonetization is necessary whenever there is

a change of national currency. The old unit of currency must be retired and replaced with a new

currency unit. There are multiple reasons why nations demonetize their local units of currency.

Some reasons include to combat inflation, to combat corruption, and to discourage a cash

system. The process of demonetization involves either introducing new notes or coins of the

same currency or completely replacing the old currency with new currency. Demonetization

technically is a liquidity shock; a sudden stop in terms of currency availability. It creates a

situation where lack of currencies jams consumption, investment, production, employment etc.

In this context, the exercise may produce following short term/long term/,

consumption/investment, welfare/growth impacts on Indian economy. The intensity of

demonetization effects clearly depends upon the duration of the liquidity shocks. Following are

the main impacts.

Keywords: Demonetisation; Black money; Public Policy; Ministry; Positivity; Economy; Indian

Mindset.

* Director- Adithya School of Business, Adithya Institute of Technology, Coimbatore,

Affiliated to Anna University, Chennai, Tamilnadu

** Professor, Christ University Bangalore

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/legal-tender.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/national-currency.asp




Introduction: In 2016, the Indian government decided to demonetize two biggest denomination

notes all INR 500 (US$7.40) and INR 1,000 (US$15) banknotes which accounted for 86% of the

country‘s cash circulation. The intention and the immediate goal to eradicate counterfeit

currency is to put up a fight against, tax evasion, black money, money laundering and terrorist

financing activities, with a larger aim of bringing Indian transactions to cashless economy. On

the previous occasions of the demonetisation by the Indian government in 1946 and 1978 the aim

was similar, the ultimate goal was to combat "black money" held outside the formal economic

system. A longitudinal study highlights that in 1946, the pre-independence government of India

tried demonetisation to penalize Indian businesses who were allies in World War II. Similar

demonetisation in 1978, the Indian (coalition) government demonetised banknotes of 1000, 5000

and 10,000 rupees, to fight black money. The end result was not clear to neither public nor the

government.The Central Board of Direct Taxes in 2012 was not in favour of demonetisation,

stating that demonetisation can‘t tackle black money or economy, since its actual form is benami

properties, bullion and jewellery. It stated that only 6% or less of their wealth as cash is kept as

black money and rest as property. On 28 October 2016 money circulation in India was INR

17.77 trillion (US$260 billion) and report of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of 31 March 2016

stated that total notes in circulation valued to INR 16.42 trillion (US$240 billion) of which

nearly 86% (around INR 14.18 trillion (US$210 billion)) were INR 500 and INR 1,000

banknotes. In terms of volume, the report stated that 24% (around 22.03 billion) of the total

90266 million banknotes were in circulation.

Figure: 1: The Perplexing Spiral for the Common Man on Public Policy (Demonetisation of

500/1000 Notes)

•31 Mar 2016(16.42 Trillion)

•28 Oct 2016 (17.77 Trillion)

14.18 Trillion 500/1000notes

•8 Nov 2016 (14.18 Trillion Notes Lost its Value by Demonetisation)

•3.69 Trillion From Next day For Use

•Public Policy Implemented

Plan Started 10 Months Prior •Units of 100,50,20,10 Notes

were only available

•No new notes of 500/2000 anywhere

The Common Man (on 09 Nov 2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Board_of_Direct_Taxes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benami_Transactions_(Prohibition)_Act,_1988






Aims of Demonetisation:

Aim One: The strategy planned was making the larger denomination notes worthless, through

the government expected the black money gotten from parallel cash systems, to convert the

money at a bank which is by law required to acquire tax information from the entity.

Aim Two: To bring the Indian business transactions into cashless mode, so that every moment of

money is monitored by the authority.

Aim Three: To bring the circulation of money under control and flush the unaccountable black

currencies and its values out of the system.

Aim Four: To make economic growth consistent with transparency in economic activities of the

nation and there by the tax revenues are utilised correctly.

Aim Five: To make common man free from corruption, get access to public utilities, get all the

government services electronically and make every citizen to become cashless.

Aim Six: To make India a vibrant destinations for Influx of investment and hassle free nation to

promote positive growth in all sectors.

Figure:2: The Benefit Layer of Demonetisation as a Public Policy Conundrum: Designed

by Prof Dr.C.Karthikeyan

Aim One Curb Black Money

Control Counterfiet

Notes

Aim Two Control Tax Evasion

Make Cashless Transaction

Aim ThreeBring

Circulation Under Control

Flush out Unaccountable

Money

Aim Four Make Economic Growth Consisten

Tax Revenues Monitored

Closely

Aim Five Free From Corruption

e-Governance

Aim Six MAKE INDIA VIBRANT FOR INVESTMENT

Free India of

Corruption




Objectives of the Study:

(i) To evaluate whether the aims of demonetisation policy as said above would come

true and the intended progress is felt.

(ii) To examine the parallel impact on the common man on the public policy of

demonetisation

(iii) To examine the Impact of the Policy on Informal Sectors in India.

(iv) To evaluate the Impact of the public policy on Demonetisation.

(v) To analyse the level of cashless transactions in all the sectors of Indian Economy.

Methodology: Meta Analytical and Conceptual analysis with longitudinal secondary datas of

various authentic sources.

Data: Secondary Data and Literature Reviews of Previous Research

Scope: To spread awareness on the importance of understanding the impact of Public Policy

Management.

Limitations: The period of study is for the past four months from 08 Nov 16 to 08 Feb 2017,

with secondary sources of data. The geographical area is Pan India and only observable

evidences and data procured from reliable government sources could be used for justification.

The Curtain Raiser; On 8 November 2016, the Prime Minister of India, the demonetisation of

all INR 500 (US$7.40) and INR 1,000 (US$15) banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series. The

strategy was to crack down on the use of illicit and counterfeit cash to fund illegal activity and

terrorism. The announcement was a shocker and the prolonged cash shortages in the weeks that

followed disturbed the Psyche of the whole country to a spin and created rampant disruption. The

positivity among the common public trolled and specially people of the rural economy, felt

threatened on the policy decision was heavily criticized as poorly planned and unfair, and was

met with protests, litigation, and strikes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender#Demonetisation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahatma_Gandhi_Series




Objective: (i) To evaluate whether the aims of demonetisation policy as said above would

come true and the intended progress is felt.

Aim One: The strategy planned was making the larger denomination notes worthless, through

the government expected the black money gotten from parallel cash systems, to convert the

money at a bank which is by law required to acquire tax information from the entity. The stock

indices of India crashed the day after the announcement and as aftermath the country faced

severe cash shortages with severe detrimental effects on the common man‘s life across the

economy since every transaction came to a standstill. The banks could not serve the people

seeking to exchange their bank notes, and went on to put people on lengthy queues despite the

banks served its customers 24/7. The insurgency like situation created panic and psychological

trauma to people of daily wages and other lower middle class economy, and people even

collapsed in the long queues. Seriously ill people in queues died down in a fit of rush to

exchange cash which came in for heavy criticism by the opposition parties, leading to debates in

both houses of parliament. The economists in India predicted that this public policy is reducing

the country's GDP and industrial production. When the movement of cash mostly on high value

notes that were demonetized were no more of value and every sector tumbled for few days, and

when the cash crunch was beyond control, well known celebrated economists across the world

also expressed their concern on the situation. Those who are illiterate with no access to banking

facilities were hit by such diversionary measures. A declaration by the Government of India on

Income Declaration Scheme, till 30 September 2016, for undeclared assets a penalty of 45%

thereafter though were satisfactory but was not formidable. Immediate Impact: Heavy

Deflation: Initially heavy deflation trigger will persist as declaration of the money will be

delayed as Govt/Income Tax Dept will counter on the legitimacy of their income, which curbs

circulation in the economy, and in turn leading to deflation. Deflation increases the value of

money, as the total money supply goes down despite commodities and things available in the

market remain stable along side making gold prices, stocks & commodities to come down. The

trigger from deflation to Inflation: Legal deposits of cash, legally earned, getting deposited in

the bank which increases the banks for more lending. Credit (loans) will become easier and

interest rates may come down. More loans given out increases broad money supply and creates

inflation in sojourn of time. Deflation and Inflation would balance in couple of months. The

Prelude to demonetisation: The plan to demonetise the INR 500 and INR1000 bank notes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Parliament

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_production

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_declaration_scheme,_2016




began six to ten months prior, and was kept highly confidential with only about ten people aware

of it completely. The logistical processes and preparations for printing the new INR 500 and INR

2000 bank notes began in early-May. The cabinet was informed about the demonetisation on 8

November 2016 in a meeting called by the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi which was

followed by Modi's public announcement about the demonetisation in a televised address. The

Hidden Purpose: The RBI governor, and Economic Affairs secretary, clarified the purpose of

the action was to fight terrorism funded by counterfeit notes. The supply of notes of all

denominations had increased by 40 percent between 2011 and 2016, the INR 500 and 1,000

banknotes increased by 76 percent and 109 percent, respectively, paving way to counterfeit

supply and other fraudulent transactions easier, like terrorist funding and hawala transactions, to

fund terrorist activities against India which the demonetisation process thwarted a counter-

terrorism purpose.

The Beginning of Common Man’s Problem:

Figure: 3: The shocker: Source: RBI

The Knee Jerking Reactions and Problems were: The routine was stumbling and the worst

being the job of replacing and cost of replacing the 500 and 1000 Rs notes. The common man

felt very difficult as more than half the population were not well versed with the card

transactions. The move deeply impacted the working sections of society: drivers, maids, cooks,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Council_of_Ministers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi

http://www.livemint.com/r/LiveMint/Period2/2016/12/14/Photos/Processed/G-oped-(demonetization)web.jpg




electricians, plumbers and it included everyone who provided services in the informal sector and

depends on monthly or bi-monthly cash payments. Starting from a very basic Tea Shop Owner

who was suppose to leave his business and stand in a queue to deposit these notes in bank?

Never anyone were confident that the note they had is a fake one.

Government ordinance: The Specified Bank Notes (Cessation of Liabilities) Ordinance, 2016

issued by Government of India on 28 December 2016 ceasing the liability of the government for

the banned bank notes. The ordinance further imposed a fine upto INR 10,000 or five times the

amount of the face value of the bank notes, whichever is higher, for people transacting with them

after 8 November 2016 or holding more than ten of them after 30 December 2016 added the

problems to the common man despite allowing usage the same at petrol, CNG and gas stations,

government hospitals, railway and airline booking counters, state-government recognised dairies

and ration stores, and crematoriums were allowed to accept the banned INR500 and INR1,000

bank notes until December 2, 2017. Exchange of old notes: The RBI stipulations like fifty days

to deposit the demonetised banknotes as credit in bank accounts exchange limits upto a limit that

varied over the days, and exchange of banknotes getting abruptly stopped from 25 November

2016 were the exchange problems. The Cost of New Notes: If all this additional money (a

spectacular Rs.6.666 trillion) had to be printed using Rs.100 notes, it would cost RBI about

Rs.11,900 crore, which is more than a four-fold increase. This is without taking into

consideration the increased costs of operating ATMs (since they would need to be refilled more

often), and of handling money in general. Scrapping Rs500, Rs1000 notes a costly idea.

The Streamlining of Black and White Money

Up to 97 percent of the demonetised bank notes have been deposited into banks which have

received a total of INR 14.97 trillion ($220 billion) as of December 30 out of the INR 15.4

trillion that was demonetised. This is against the government's initial estimate that INR 3 trillion

would not return to the banking system. Of the INR 15.4 trillion demonetised in the form of INR

500 and INR1000 bank notes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series, INR 9.2 trillion in the form of INR

500 and INR 2000 bank notes of the Mahatma Gandhi New Series has been recirculated as of 10

January 2017, two months after the demonetisation. Withdrawal limits: Cash withdrawals

from bank accounts were restricted to INR 10,000 per day and INR 20,000 per week per account

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNG

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Railways

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/fhNlITluEPxCOHef3GSA6H/Scrapping-Rs500-Rs1000-notes-a-costly-idea.html




from 10 to 13 November. This limit was increased to INR 24,000 per week from 14 November

2016. A daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs was also imposed varying from INR 2,000 per

day till 14 November and INR 2,500 per day till 31 December. This limit was increased to INR

4,500 per day from January 1, and again to INR 10,000 from January 16, 2017. Limits placed

vide the circulars cited above on cash withdrawals from Current accounts/ Cash credit accounts/

Overdraft accounts stand withdrawn with immediate effect. The limits on Savings Bank accounts

will continue for the present and are under consideration for withdrawal in the near future. Limits

vide the circulars cited above placed on cash withdrawals from ATMs stand withdrawn from

February 01, 2017. However, banks may, at their discretion, have their own operating limits as

was the case before November 8, 2016, subject to 2 (ii) above. Under the revised guidelines

issued on 17 November 2016, families were allowed to withdraw ₹250,000 for wedding

expenses from one account provided it was KYC compliant. The rules were also changed for

farmers who are permitted to withdraw INR 25,000 per week from their accounts against crop

loans.

The Politics of Policy Implementation: Prior leakage of information: A fortnight before the

official announcement, a news report in the Hindi daily Dainik Jagran quoting RBI sources

mentioned about the coming release of new 2000 rupee note alongside withdrawal of 500 and

1000 rupee notes. Similar news came in The Hindu Business Line on 21 October 2016 which

also mentions about coming 2000 rupee note and about possible withdrawal of 500 and 1000

rupee notes. A businessman reportedly admitted in an interview that he had received prior

warning of the impending demonetisation from a source in the government, and that he had

sufficient time to convert most of his money into smaller denominations.The chairman of

the State Bank of India had also openly spoken in April 2016 about the possibility of

demonetisation of INR 500 and INR 1000 notes. A BJP MLA from Rajasthan, Bhawani Singh

Rajawat, claimed in a video that 'Ambani and Adani' were informed about the demonetisation,

and made arrangements. However, he later said that it was an off-the-record conversation, and

officially denied the comments. Criticism: Nobel laureate Indian economist called it "despotic

action", former Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, called it a 'major

mistake' and said that the 'damage' is likely to be much greater than any possible benefits. Chief

Statistician and Planning Commission called it a "hollow move" as it had no purported goals of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_your_customer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dainik_Jagran

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Line

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_India

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambani

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gautam_Adani

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Off_the_record_(journalism)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_Chief_Economist




tackling black money or fake currency. Business Standard stated demonetisation 'looks like a bad

idea, badly executed on the basis of some half-baked notions'. Steve Forbes described the move

as 'Sickening And Immoral'and stated what India has done is commit a massive theft of people's

property without even the pretense of due process, and criticised it as a shocking move for a

democratically elected government. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said that it is difficult to see

gains from demonetisation, while there may be significant costs to it. New York Times stated the

demonetisation was "atrociously planned" and that it did not appear to have combatted black

money. The Guardian stated that demonetisation has brought havoc to India. The Harvard

Business Review called it a case study in poor policy and even poorer execution. Sudden

Impact Due to Demonetisation: Impact of Shortage of cash everywhere: Cash shortage due

to demonetisation impacted badly on the people and the underprepared banking sector could not

withstand or support the people suffering due to difficulties exchanging them due to endless lines

outside banks. The ATMs were not sufficient to render services and ran dry or non-

functional.Violence , with grievous injury, the bank premises and ATMs, shop owners refused

to accept INR 500 banknotes. Deaths; aged and sick people while in queue died and were

mainly attributed to lack of medical help due to refusal of old banknotes by hospitals. Death toll

across India due to demonetisation touched almost a staggering 33 and by the end of the year,

opposition leaders claimed that over 100 people had died due to demonetisation. Stock market

crash: Trickle down effect of demonetisation hit the BSE SENSEX, the crash was but

inevitable, nearly 1,689 points and NIFTY 50 plunged by over 541 points. By the end of the

intraday trading section on 15 November 2016, the BSE SENSEX index was lower by 565 points

and the NIFTY 50 index was below 8100 intraday. Logistical movements like transportation

was a major hit:halting vehicles: Approximately 800,000 truck drivers and 400,000 trucks

stranded at major highways across India with toll junctions across highways also saw long

queues as toll plaza operators refused the old banknotes. Impact on Agriculture: Indian

agriculture sector , that is cash dependent (raw cash), was severly impacted with farmers going

dry on hard cash. The logistics for agriculture in rural India is dependent on hard cash as

purchase of seeds, fertilisers and pesticides were indispensible due to plantation of rabi

crops sown around mid-November. The district cooperative central banks were cash stripped

and were ordered not to accept or exchange the demonetised banknotes. Dumping of

agricultural produce: The demonetisation led to unavailability of cash to pay for food products.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Standard

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Forbes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Krugman

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Times

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Guardian

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_Business_Review



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIFTY_50

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NIFTY_50

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_India



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabi_crop



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_Cooperative_Central_Bank




The reduction in demand that arose in turn led to a crash in the prices of crops. Farmers were

unable to recover even the costs of transportation from their fields to the market from the low

prices offered. The prices dropped as low as 50 paise per kilo for tomatoesand onions. This

forced the farmers across the country to dump their products in desperation. Some farmers

resorted to burying unsold vegetables.] Agricultural produce such as vegetables, foodgrains,

sugarcane, milk and eggs were dumped on roads. Some farmers dumped their produce in protest

against the government.

The Fight Back of the Indian Economic Sectors: The fight back of the Banking Sector: The

historic first four days: Knee Jerk reaction from the banking sector for the historic first four

days post the policy of demonetisation 3 trillion (US$45 billion) in the form of old INR 500 and

INR 1,000 banknotes were deposited in the banking system and about INR 500

billion (US$7.4 billion) had been dispensed via withdrawals from bank accounts, ATMs as well

as exchanges over the bank counters. These four days made the banks to work on about 180

million transactions and approximately 300 billion (US$4.5 billion) came back into circulation of

banking spiral. A metamorphic spike in the usage of debit card and credit card post

demonetisation became staggering and generated a positivity among the citizens, and the banks

reported deposits of demonetised banknotes worth INR 8.45 trillion (US$130 billion) (exchange

of ₹339.48 billion (US$5.0 billion) and deposits of INR 8.11 trillion (US$120 billion)). During

this period, an amount of INR 2.16 lakh crore (US$32 billion) historic withdrawals by people

from their accounts. Business: The cigarette sales across India fell to 30–40%, and E-commerce

companies made 30% decline in cash on delivery (COD) orders. The e-commerce companies

moved further the impetus to an increase in digital payments and brought a decline in COD

returns ,simultaneously increasing demand for point of sales (POS) or card swipe machines. E-

payment options like PayTM and Instamojo Payment Gateway, PayUMoney and Pine Labs, the

demand for its POS machines doubled after the decision. The debit card transactions rose by

108% and credit card transactions by 60% post the historic policy implementation. Confidence

and Convincing aftermath on GDP growth rate: Global analysts forecasts India's GDP to be

US$2.25 trillion, hence, each 1 per cent reduction in growth rate represents a shortfall of

US$22.5 billion (Rs. 1.54 lakh crores) for the Indian economy. Tremors in industrial output:

The obvious; the reduction in industrial output hit by the cash crisis catapulted the Purchasing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_banknote_demonetisation#cite_note-231

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakh

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crore

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_on_delivery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-commerce_payment_system

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instamojo_Technologies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers%27_Index

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers%27_Index




Managers' Index (PMI) to 46.7 in November from 54.5 in October, making it a best reduction in

three years. A reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below shows contraction. The

PMI report recorded inflation in November was due to shortage in money supply. The growth in

eight core sectors such as cement, steel and refinery products, which constitute 38% of the Index

of Industrial Production (IIP), was only to 4.9 percent in November as compared with 6.6 percent

in October. The government action on Income tax raids and cash seizures: The Finance

Ministry stepped up the revenue intelligence agencies for crackdown on forex traders, hawala

operators and jewellers besides tracking movement of demonetised currency notes. The Prime

Minister's Office (PMO) and the Prime Minister himself were directly coordinating the raids

conducted by the Income Tax, Enforcement Directorate (ED) and other agencies. The PMO

received around 700 calls on black money and it directly forwarded the information to various

law enforcement agencies for further action. Income Tax departments raided various illegal tax-

evasive businesses in Delhi, Mumbai, Chandigarh, Ludhiana and other cities that traded with

demonetised currency. The Enforcement Directorate issued several FEMA notices to forex and

gold traders. Large sum of cash in defunct notes were seized in different parts of the

country. INR 4.4 million (US$65,000) was seized and the Income Tax department detected over

INR 4,172 crore of un-disclosed income and seized new notes worth INR 105 crore as part of its

country-wide operations. The department carried out a total of 983 search, survey and enquiry

operations under the provisions of the Income Tax Act and has issued 5,027 notices to various

entities on charges of tax evasion and hawala-like dealings. The department also seized cash and

jewellery worth over INR 549 crore out of which the new currency seized (majority of them INR

2000 notes) is valued at about INR 105 crore. The department also referred a total of 477 cases

to other agencies like the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) to probe other financial

crimes like money laundering, disproportionate assets and corruption. Seizures of INR 2000

notes: The cash in the form of new notes were seized all over the country after the

demonetisation. As of December 2016, over 4 crore in new banknotes of INR 2000 were seized.

The government is taking steps to bring the siezed money into the mainstream as soon as

possible to ease out the cash problem. Earlier, agencies kept all seized material, including cash

seizures, in their strong rooms as evidence till the case was adjudicated by the courts. The seized

money was then deposited into the Consolidated Fund of India. Railways: The Indian Railways

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_industrial_production



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Finance_(India)



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister%27s_Office_(India)



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enforcement_Directorate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Exchange_Management_Act

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Consolidated_Fund_of_India&action=edit&redlink=1




did not have the option to make payment with cards at the countersnow the government has

taken steps to make card payment options available at railway counters in the country.

The Negative Spiral against the Economic Policy of Demonetisation: The evasion attempts

started off like Gold purchases: Post demonetisation the sales of gold increased 20 to 30%

premium surging the price as much as INR 45,000 (US$670) from the ruling price of INR

31,900 (US$470) per 10 grams (0.35 oz). Still the purchase was unexpectedly high. Donations

in temples: In cash collection boxes in temples and gurudwaras discovered cash worth INR 4.4

million (US$65,000) from the temple hundi in the form of defunct notes. Multiple bank

transactions: The incidence of multiple transactions at different banks to exchange large

amounts of banned currency at banks were done and immediately the government took to other

measures proposed to ensure that the exchange transactions are carried out only once by each

person. The multiplicity in Railway bookings:Indian Railways authorities observed that the

booking tickets particularly in classes 1A and 2A for the longest distance possible, almost 27,237

passengers had booked tickets in 1A and 69,950 in 2A to rotate the unaccounted money, but

the Railways Ministry and the Railway Board responded swiftly and decided that cancellation

and refund of tickets of value INR 10,000 and above will not be allowed by any means involving

cash. The payment can only be through cheque/electronic payment. Tickets above INR 10,000

can be refunded by filing ticket deposit receipt only on surrendering the original ticket. A copy

of the PAN card must be submitted for any cash transaction above INR 50,000. The railway

claimed that since the Railway Board on 10 November imposed a number of restrictions to book

and cancel tickets, the number of people booking 1A and 2A tickets came down. Municipal and

local tax payments:The trickle down effect resulted in revenue collections of the local civic

bodies jumped. To about INR 1.6 billion (US$24 million) in cash payments of outstanding and

advance taxes, within 4 days. The tax collection by local bodies have surged over 260% and

more than 15000 crore mare after 14 days of demonetization. The total indirect tax collection

rose to 14.2% only in the month of December according to Finance Minister. Backdated

accounting:The Enforcement Directorate raided several forex establishments making back dated

entries. Money laundering using backdated accounting was carried out by co-operative banks,

jewellers, sellers of iPhones, and several other businesses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Railways

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Railways_coaching_stock

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Railways_(India)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PAN_card

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enforcement_Directorate




Objective (ii) : To examine the parallel impact on the common man on the public policy of

demonetisation: Demonetization technically is a liquidity shock and a stop for currency

availability. This situation of lack of currencies interrupts consumption, investment, production,

employment etc. The sufferings due to impact usually is short term depends upon the duration of

the liquidity shocks. Following short term impact can be felt: Liquidity crunch (short term

effect): liquidity shock due to lack of flow of hard currency unit of favourable denomination in

daily life nearly to 49% of the previous currency supply in terms of value. Welfare loss for the

currency using population: Most active segments of the population who constitute the ‗base of

the pyramid‘ uses currency to meet their transactions. The daily wage earners, other labourers,

small traders etc. who reside out of the formal economy uses cash frequently. Loss of Growth

momentum- India risks its position of being the fastest growing largest economy: reduced

consumption, income, investment etc. may reduce India‘s GDP growth as the liquidity impact

itself may last three -four months. Impact on bank deposits and interest rate: Deposits made

to conversion would not be in terms of regular long term deposits and in the banking system,

most of the savings were obtained by biggie public sector banks like the SBI and not in the long

term. Impact on black money: Since black income is kept in the form of physical assets like

gold, land, buildings etc the recovery will be smaller than expected. Impact on counterfeit

currency: the real impact will be on counterfeit/fake currency as its circulation will be checked

after this exercise. Demonetization as a cleaning exercise may produce several good things in the

economy. At the same time, it creates unavoidable income and welfare losses to the poor

sections of the society who gets income based on their daily work and those who doesn‘t have

the digital transaction culture. Overall economic activies will be dampened in the short term. But

the unmeasurable benefits of having more transparency and reduced volume of black money

activities can be pointed as long term benefits. Ambit Capital, estimates GDP could decelerate

to 0.5%, down from 6.4% in the previous six month and is hopeful that a strong formalisation of

the informal economy will ensue through 2017 until 2019 and this disruption could also crimp

GDP growth in 2017-18 to 5.8 % from their earlier estimate of 7.3%.

Objective: ( iii ) To examine the Impact of the Policy on Informal Sectors in India:

Approximately 45% of gross value added (GVA) in the economy (average of 2011-15) is from

informal sector. The informal sector‘s growth is mostly cash-centric and its sustenance has been




dependent on prevalence of cash transactions so far. Demonetisation of high denomination notes

(of Rs1,000 and Rs500) has put over 85% of currency out of circulation. This has resulted in

short-term disruptions in transactions in agriculture and related sectors, small establishments,

households and among professionals. Since injection of liquidity is slow, incomes in both formal

and informal sectors have been affected with the intensity of adverse impact being greater for the

informal sector. Since self-employed and casual workers dominate in the overall economy, their

incomes may suffer a setback. The unexpected and sudden demonetisation has had a 'knee jerk'

reaction on the level of economic activity. All the cash dependent consumption-led sectors such

as retail, wholesale, jewellery, hospitals, healthcare, diagnostics, trading, restaurants, transport,

logistics are severely affected. Real estate/construction transactions, which are partly dealt with

in cash, have been affected jeopardising millions of jobs in construction. A large proportion of

the country‘s labour force is employed in these sectors collectively. Therefore, the biggest

concern from the demonetisation exercise is its far-reaching impact on India‘s cash

economy.Here‘s an assessment of how this single significant move has impacted some major

sectors. The Brick and Mortar Business of Real estate: A sereious fund crunch in the short to

medium term, is making land prices to fall. The Real Estate Regulatory Bill and continuous

monitoring of circle rates/ ready reckoner rates by states will reduce the gap in prices in the

primary and secondary market transactions like Cement consumption in the real estate sector will

be affected. pressure on already low prices.Steel amd negative since 30-35 percent of

consumption or just a third emanates from the real estate sector. Near-term demand will be

affected. There could be marginal pressure on long steel prices. Telecom: The telecom web in

totality the mobile industry slumped in prepaid recharges, smartphone sales and data adoption.

Demonetisation has already lead to a 50-70 percent fall in over-the-counter smartphone sales, as

per channel checks by CLSA. Automobiles: Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities say retail

sales of two-wheelers have been severely impacted, down by 30-50 percent year-on-year in

various regions in India due to lack of adequate cash in hand for customers. But, they say, since

cash circulation will improve over the next few months, there will be a recovery in scooter and

commuter bike demand by next fiscal. Etailing, online cabs: An analysis by RedSeer

consulting says business was down 15-20 percent for e-commerce companies in November

whereas the impact on online cabs was a reduction of 3-5 percent. Both these new economy

sectors have seen an increase in non-cash transactions too. Consumer products: Kotak analysts




asseses at three levels: (1) shortage of cash in the hands of the consumer, consume only the most

basic necessities; (2) shortage of lower denomination currency notes creating a ‗change‘ problem

in the cash economy and hurting transaction volumes and, (3) shortage of cash at the retail and

wholesale level leading to de-stocking across the chain; this factor means that the primary sales

impact across most categories is disproportionately higher than the ‗off-take‘ impact, at this

point. The analysts have said that the liquidity impact is a temporary issue and should get sorted

over the next 2-3 months. On wholesalers having to reset their business model towards cashless

transactions, they said this could take a while. Overall, demand recovery to ‗normal‘ levels could

take 12-18 months. Logistics: The All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) a

representative body for 9.3 million truckers, and more than five million bus operators, tourist

taxis and maxi went off the roads. With the government's curbs on withdrawal of money and

exchange of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, the motor transport business suffered, since 80 per

cent of the business is cash-based. Supplies of essential commodities like milk, fruits, vegetables

and medicines got increasingly affected the lives of 200 million people directly or indirectly

dependent on this industry.

Objective: (iv) : To evaluate the Impact of the public policy on Demonetisation:

Demonetisation no doubt, helps the government to fight Black money, corruption, terrorism and

counterfeit currency with one single decision, by curbing arms smuggling, espionage and

terrorist related activities due to lack of funding. The prevention of Counterfeit currencies which

were catalyst for financing terrorism, and run by the enemy in India is closed. With the new

limits on ATM withdrawals the e-transactions will drive the card payments across the country.

Every transaction gets recorded automatically and the financial ecosystem improves

automatically. Demonetisation has facilitated the Government to track the money being

exchanged as with supporting documents produced at transit points like PAN, Aadhaar and

Election Card helps the system with monetary movements with care, and details with precision

available. FIU of India get info about transactions from banks. During this period, banks will

take extra precaution. Banks will share info with Income Tax dept. as deemed fit. The legal

provisions like traditional benami transactions have already received a big blow as the new

legislation has a provision for seven-year imprisonment and fine, replacing the three-year jail

term, or fine, or both. Government can now institutionalize the real estate sector bringing more




transparency in the Indian real estate industry. This step would give the Indian real estate sector

more credibility making it more attractive to the foreign as well as domestic investors, by

housing prices witnessing downward pressure, helping revive demand in the sluggish housing

segment (this will give much needed bloodline to the sector). This helps the common man by

putting an end to the artificial increase in Real Estate, Higher Education and Healthcare

transactions bringing them within the reach of the common man. Hence the common man has

some good feeling about the public policy of demonetisation, and in the long term interest of the

country comfortably outweigh the consequences. The Indirect Impact due to Public Policy on

Demonetisation: The impact positive, negative or invisible, has infact done the moves like;

Demonetisation impact socially: The social impact of demonetisation is includes the difficulties

the common man is facing. Indeed, the social impact is the most major visible impact of

demonetisation. People who do not use ‗plastic money‘ such as credit cards, debit cards or online

banking suffered from getting even the basic necessities. Small time merchants, and business

persons without plastic money could not make further stocks. Small time shops and independent

services like transport that do not accept other methods of payments lost business. Daily-wage

earners would suffered, but still the people (common man) tolerated keeping in mind the long

term benefits of getting the positive impact as the time passed and they could sense the positivity

of learning to use the e-way transaction, as well as started learning the importance of e-

commerce. Demonetisation impact Politically: Opposition parties across the country together

to protested strongly against the demonetisation, that had direct impact on political parties as

politicians have massive amounts of black money. Though not compatible with their incomes,

black money will no longer be as useful and eventually begin piling up again, which can be

mustered before the upcoming Assembly Elections in 2017. As a result, the election would be

transparent as paid supporters will be minimal and international counterfeiting operations will be

instantly useless. Demonetisation Impact on Business: Large-scale businesses that were

unscrupulous means to accumulate non-taxable income fell in trouble as the piled up currency

are not valid. Small-scale business that operate on mainly cash basis faces difficulty and Online

companies on the other hand would flourish as they already have set-up for cash-less

transactions. Companies that sell high-range products might face initial hiccups as customers

juggle cash transactions and digital transactions. Sale of Jewellery and gold no doubt faced a

sudden spike as people rush to invest the unstable currency into a more reliable format of gold.




Demonetisation Impact on Indian Economy: The long term visualisation from the government

with this public policy of demonetisation is basically to improve the economy, especially in

long-term. As a result of the demonetisation, the public is now forced to deposit massive

amounts of money, helping accumulation of money so that the economy will become more

organised, transparent and cash-less, with all long-term benefits. The transition from cash

economy to cash-less will be an immense pressure hitting India hard, due to the country‘s heavy

reliance on cash, but even if black money is generated in the future, the 2016 sweep will have

cleared away a vast majority of it. Demonetisation Impact on MSMEs of India: MSMEs,

manufacturing and construction sectors may have immediate impact on the overall economic

situation, but still government the opportunity to contribute to the labour and other groups in

social sector that need developmental priorities. SMEs and MSMEs usually accommodate the

social sector which includes labour, below poverty line (BPL) people, socially and economically

backward people, villagers, tribals, lower middle class, agriculture sector, micro and small

industries and provide minimum wages, social security, employment, health and education,

especially in the rural parts of India.

Impact on Common Man: Day-1-10: People panicked, number of transactions drop by more

than 50%. Day-10-50: People realise depositing in bank and raise capital and economy will

grow. People realise the problem on their hands and cooperate with the government by learning

to use e-transactions. People realise the importance of the economic policy and the black money

will be effectively taken out of circulation and that aids deflation. Day 50-200: Deflation eases

out, inflation returns. Lending broadens money supply electronically, creating demand for raw

materials and capital goods. This leads to a steady growth of Indian economy. Days in future:

Real Estate prices melts down or may crash. Builders & developers who were eager to sell for

cash can no longer sell and will be forced to lower the price by 10-20%. Real estate developers

will be forced to go with legal transactions and play in white economy. Impact on the illegal

money: Big Losers: The corrupt government officials, Politicians, Hawala tansactor, and those

sitting on undeclared tonnes of cash face risk of tax investigations, and are in the verge of losing

their illegal money. Impact on the Real Estate: Home sales is impacted significantly and

promoters are deferring launches of premium projects while prices of land and properties,

particularly luxury homes, are likely to drop in the next 3-6 months. Even secondary (resale)




property markets sales have dropped by 50%, say brokers and analysts. While the short-term

impact is negative, developers expect things to return to normal over the course of the fiscal year.

Some are hoping that rate cuts in the coming months would boost home sales. Impact on

Automobiles: The market has been hit very badly and decline in sales even has trickled down

to selling old cars, as the entire market was cash. Impact on Tourism: Big slump in hotels

and associated services bookings including the premium hotel segment and discretionary

expenses are being delayed.

Conclusion:

The impact for the future of India: Today India along with its citizens have a huge positive

outlook and is enjoying the positive impact on the state of the Indian economy. The public

policy though was a implementation shcoker by choice. The e-commerce culture and new

learning curve: The e-culture has boomed beyond expectations as the 4G infrastructure has

enable all Indians to connect on a common platform to transact with out the differences of rich,

poor, educated, uneducated, rural or urban. The banking apps in Fingertips: The loan

repayments to tax payment to other application process has become transparent. It has choked

off the stock of liquidity which finances black activities. The Challenges still left: Certain

criminal activities (such as smuggling, drug peddling, gun running etc.) that follow this pattern,

are collectively account for a minuscule fraction of what is commonly understood as the ‗black

money‘. Bit coins and other kinds of untraceable etransactions may hit for which the e-

governance needs to get prepared to tackle. The paradox of Black Money Trail and Means of

Movement Post Demonetisation:The really big bucks come from two other activities –

corruption and tax evasion. In both these cases, the ‗black money‘ is a recurring income, and the

recipients use the funds as all of us do with out incomes either consume it or invest it for future

consumption. In either case, the cash does not stay with them for long and moves along an ever-

widening ripple of transactions, most of which are perfectly legal. The illegality, if any, happens

only to the extent that tax is evaded on the income from these secondary and tertiary

transactions. For example, if a jeweller accepts cash in payment for gold or an ornament, he is

committing no illegality (indeed, by law, it would be illegal for him to refuse to accept legal

tender). If he conceals this income, however, then, and only then, it remains ‗black‘ (this, by the

way, is also true of real estate transactions). The perplexing cost. The informal sector in India




accounts approximately 45% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and approximately 80% of

the employment, and the worse is, this cash is held by hundreds of millions of the poor as

savings and for meeting contingencies, and they have little else to fall back upon, now that these

funds will be replacedthe human cost will be substantial. So the informal financial sector is to

have the real impact including the moneylender nidhis, hundis, chit-funds and the like will have

a very hard time exchanging its stock of currency (some of which may well be black money),

and may indeed suffer a permanent erosion in its lending capacity. So finally we can conlude for

this study like the Public Policy of Demonetisation historically has successfully done the

following; eliminated terrorist funding through counterfeit currency, black assets as cash and

completely rounded off, curbed criminal activities of counterfieting and other hawala

transaction. Brought the e-culture platform to entire informal sector, and on the not satisfying

side the Public policy is still to show its effect on to curb either corruption or tax evasion, and the

excessive cost of Rs 12,000 crores in printing new notes are having scope for further discussion

and has a scope of indepth qualitative analysis to map up the feeling of positivity among the

stakeholders of country.

The Reality Today on the Policy of Demonetisation: Streamlining India by Budget: The

annual budget of India on capital and current expenditure post the announcement of

demonetisation on November 8, is to affect the level of gross domestic product (GDP) and

revenue collections from direct and indirect taxes in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 financial years.

The resulting impact will be on the government fiscal. The revenue receipts of the government

during April-October 2016-17, at 50.7 per cent of the budgeted figure as compared with 51.7 per

cent in the corresponding period of the previous year, Revenue Expenditure at 60 per cent of the

total, had taken the revenue deficit to 93 per cent of the budgeted total in the first seven months

of the year. The resulting economic contraction from demonetisation may put a break or deter

output growth, reduce revenue collections and further widen the revenue and fiscal deficits.

Union Budget assumes a nominal GDP growth rate of 11 per cent while Reserve Bank of India

(RBI) is setting a target of 4-5 per cent inflation. The chances are that in any case the GDP

growth slows much more than predicted and if revenue collections hits negatively the cash

crunch precipitated by the demonetisation, by the government may have the potential explosion

of its revenue deficit which means a higher fiscal deficit as well. The government may be using




the collected black money to carry the benefits to the common citizen by reducing the

burden of taxes, for which a slight reduction has been made. The collected amount of black

money approximately 65,000 crores shall fetch some benefit in the form of tax exemptions in the

way of corporate tax rate as well as personal income tax. To improve growth of

entrepreneurship which is the norm of creating employment, the government may consider

bringing the corporate tax rate down to be competitive internationally. The Government shall

increase in home loan tax benefits, and the government may do away with the time limit for

completion of construction of five years for claiming interest on home loan deduction, especially

for first-time home owners. Home owners can claim a deduction of INR 2 lakh when they meet

this condition. However, due to delays by builders in projects, home buyers suffer. The

government can also allow tax exemptions and no MAT for companies which are investing in

building affordable housing. This can be an attractive impetus to the realty sector which has been

hit by demonetisation.

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