Energy Security

Energy-Issues-Contested Planet….1. Supply-demand and security

2. Impacts:environmental and socio economic issues3. Futures- alternatives, renewables, conservation, efficiency……..

Economic viability of energy sources

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Conventional Oil Middle East

Conventional Oil other

Deep water oil

Oil Shale

Coal to liquids

Tar sands

Sugar cane ethanol

USA Corn ethanol

European biodiesel

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Oil price US$

Oil exploration Arctic- tar and shale sands

Expansion nuclear power UK eg Sizewell Kingsnorth coal

powerstation + Grenpeace protest

Energy crisis - oil peak

Alternatives for future?

Renewables: wind farm Thames Estuary ARRAY and wave: Anaconda system

Key supply player: OPEC

Hybrid car- less energy

What students need to learn:

• There are many energy sources that can be classified in different ways (flows of renewable sources, stocks of non-renewable and recyclable sources) and that have different environmental costs.

• Access to and consumption of energy resources, both renewable and non-renewable, is not evenly distributed, and depends on physical factors, cost, technology and public perception.

• Some areas suffer from energy poverty, while others have a surplus.

• Demand for energy is growing globally, and at regional and local scales, especially in developed and emergent economies such as China and India.

• Energy security depends on resource availability (domestic and foreign) and security of supply, which can be affected by geopolitics, and is a key issue for many economies.

• Develop an awareness that that there is little excess capacity to ease pressure on energy resources and therefore energy insecurity is rising, particularly for finite resources.

• There are 3 possible energy futures- each has implications on the environment, the economy and people (social)

Energy demand, supply and security-

What are the main energy sources?

How do they impact on the environments

Where are the main supplies of energy resources found?

Play the game…Renewable or non-renewable? Click on the C to check your

answers

How can we classify energy sources?

Renewable

Finite resources. Their exploitation and use will eventually lead to exhaustion

Uranium and plutonium in nuclear power plants and heat recovery stations

In your notes copy the following and add in the information representing numbers 1-6

How can we classify energy sources?

• Renewable

• Non-renewable

• recyclable

Flows of nature which are continuous and therefore can be constantly reused

Solar, wind, wave

Coal. Oil and natural gas

Finite resources. Their exploitation and use will eventually lead to exhaustion

Power sources that can be used more than onceUranium and plutonium in

nuclear power plants and heat recovery stations

1. Energy supply,

demand and security

There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues:

Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable

A finite stock of resources, which will

run out

A flow of resources, which is infinite in

human terms

Can be used repeatedly, if managed

carefully

Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale, tar sands, lignite

etc.)

Wind, solar, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, geothermal

Biomass, nuclear (with reprocessing of fuel)

•Significant environmental impacts

during extraction (oil wells, opencast mines)

•Greenhouse gas emissions during use, and acidic emissions

•May require large areas (solar arrays, wind

farms) for operation. •NIMBY issues.•Limited / no

greenhouse emissions.

•Large land area needed for biomass.•Largely unresolved issues of storing high

level radioactive waste.

Comparing the environmental costs of energyOutline the opportunities and challenges of each energy type- choosing one representative of each- colour code responses according to (SEE)

Renewable- wind

Non renewable oil and gas

Recyclable uranium/ plutonium (nuclear)

OpportunitiesSocialEconomicenv

ChallengesSocialEconomicenv

Renewable- wind Non renewable oil Recyclable uranium/ plutonium (nuclear)

OpportunitiesSocialEconomicenv

ChallengesSocialEconomicenv

Which energy source has overall the

Greatest impact

Least impact on the world?

What does it mean to be energy secure?

• To have ENERGY SECURITY means to have access to reliable and affordable energy sources

E.g. Russia, Canada

• Countries/ regions/ localities that do not have this are said to be ENERGY INSECURE

E.g.. Rural communities in Zimbabwe.Or – the UK winter fuel allowance for the

elderly is a recognition of fuel poverty!

• What factors give higher chance of energy security/ insecurity? Why?

• Rank the statements on your sheet form most important (1) to least important

Achieving Energy Security

Factors important are:

• Control over supplies

• Control over prices

• Having a variety of energy sources to call on (energy mix)

• Political stability (in supply region as well as demand region)

Energy security can be threatened by:

• Rapid increase in prices (oil 2004)

• Instability of suppliers (Georgia 2008)

• Manipulation of supply and proces

• Attack on infrastructure (terrorism)

• Competition from expanding economies e.g. China

• Environmental legislation which adds to the costs of finding, transporting and processing the resource

1) Rapidly growing demand; use of pollution sources such as high sulphur coal; health impacts; impact on global fossil fuel prices

2) Reserves; questions of developing these in the Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas

3) Energy poverty; dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply (Nigeria, Sudan)

4) Dependency; wastefulness; lack of fossil fuel supply (energy insecurity)

5) Supply security; role of unstable regions in fossil fuel supply; link between nuclear power and weapons.

6) Huge surplus; inefficient use; energy as a political weapon?

Energy Issues across the world

Dependency; wastefulness; lack of

fossil fuel supply (energy insecurity)

Huge surplus; inefficient use;

energy as a political weapon?

Rapidly growing demand; use of pollution sources

such as high sulphur coal; health impacts; impact on global fossil fuel prices

Energy poverty; dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply

(Nigeria, Sudan)

Supply security; role of unstable regions in fossil fuel supply; link between nuclear power and weapons.

Reserves; questions of developing these in the

Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas

Energy Issues across the world

What is energy security?

• Where there is a reliance on imported supplies, the energy security will rely on whether there is an uninterrupted AVAILABILITY of energy at AFFORDABLE prices.

Access to energy• Direct access to fossil fuel reserves

is a coincidence of geological history and international boundaries.

• Some countries find themselves with more fossil fuel sources than their needs

• Others have none

• Reserves run down over time, as is the gas with the UK’s once abundant North Sea oil and gas

• Remaining oil and gas will increasingly concentrate in the Middle East over the next 30 years.

Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coal reserves in 2008

Look at the 2 cartoon images and write a paragraph about what you think the message is from each.

Energy consumption – refers to the availability and use of energy

Energy demand – is the need or desire for energy

World demandSOURCES OF WORLD DEMAND:• Oil: nearly ½ world oil usage for transport• Coal: Over ½ world coal used for electricity and heavy industry.• Nuclear and Hydro: solely for electricity generation.

RISING WORLD CONSUMPTION:• Consumption related to demand- increasing in BRICs and RICs

rapidly as they get rich- stabilized in HICs like the UK but at really high levels of consumption

• rising demand met by variety of sources including renewables• Correlation between GDP per capita and power consumed.

Global energy demand is growing globally, and at regional and local

scales.

• Climate change = increase in air conditioning (in hot places), or heating (in colder places)- especially in Middle East

• Modern technology = increase in electricity consumption- Especially in BRICs and RICs

• Increased world population = increase demand. More of an issue in some countries than others. Mainly in BRICs/ RICs

World Energy consumption

Describe the trend

From the Spec:

1.2: Access to and consumption of energy sources, both renewable and non-renewable, is not evenly distributed, and depends upon physical factors, cost, technology and public perception. Some areas suffer from energy poverty whilst others have a surplus.

Examine:

Distribution of fossil fuels

Distribution of renewable potential

Complete for a global basis

1.3: Demand for energy is growing globally, and at regional and local scales, especially in developed and emergent economies such as China and India

Examine:

Trends in global energy supply

Trends in demand (by source)

Type of economy demanding energy

Type of economic sector demanding energy

Who has all the energy?

Task: Use the next 9 slides and make a note of:

Who is energy rich and who is energy poor?

Does the type of resource matter?

Who has the most renewables?

Who the most non-renewables?

What futures?

When the resources are split up do you get the same picture as when you have the info all on one map?

Nuclear Power Potential

CountryUranium

miningin tonnes

Australia725,000 t

Brazil 157,400 t

Canada 329,200 t

Kazakhstan 378,100 t

South Africa 284,400 t

Namibia 176,400 t

Niger 243,100 t

Russia 172,400 t

Ukraine 135,000 t

Uzbekistan 72,400 t

USA 339,000 t

Rank       Country/Region       Natural Gas-proven reserves

(billion - 109 m³)      

Date ofInformation      

—     World 175,400 2006 est.

1     Russia 47,570 2006 est.

2     Iran 26,370 2006

3     Qatar 25,790 2007 est.

4     Saudi Arabia 6,568 2006 est.

5     United Arab Emirates

5,823 2006 est.

6     United States 5,551 2006 est.

7     Nigeria 5,015 2006 est.

8     Algeria 4,359 2006 est.

9     Venezuela 4,112 2006 est.

—     European Union 3,310 2006 est.

10     Iraq 3,170 2007 est.

This map shows the supply of natural gas (red, purple, blue) and the demand for natural gas (white dots)

Supply Projections Natural Gas

Demand Projections Natural Gas

Who buys?

Who sells?

Rank      

Country/Region       Oil- proven reserves (billion bbl)      

Date ofInformation  

   

—     World 1,371.742 estimated

1     Saudi Arabia 261.9 2003 est.

2     Canada 178.8 2001

3     Iran 132.5 2004 est.

4     Iraq 112.5 2003 est.

5     Kuwait 101.5 2003 est.

6     United Arab Emirates

97.8 2003 est.

7     Venezuela 80 2008 est.

8     Russia 74.4 2003 est.

9     Algeria 43 2006 est.

10     Libya 42 2003 est.

Two-thirds of the world’s remaining reserves are in the Middle East???????:

Country Billions of barrels

Saudi Arabia 261.8

Iraq 112.5

United Arab Emirates 97.8

Kuwait 96.5

Iran 89.7

By comparison, the North Sea has around 4.9bn barrels remaining. Brazil recently discovered a new field with an estimated 5 – 8 billion barrels but such major discoveries are rare.

Country       TOTAL       Share      

    USA 246,643 27.1

    Russia 157,010 17.3

    China 114,500 12.6

    India 92,445 10.2

    Australia 78,500 8.6

    South Africa 48,750 5.4

    Ukraine 34,153 3.8

    Kazakhstan 31,279 3.4

    Poland 14,000 1.5

    Brazil 10,113 1.1

http://feelthephoton.blogspot.com/2010/09/top-10-countries-using-solar-power.html

Millions of people WITHOUT electricityMillions of people relying on Biomass

What does the map tell you about access to and consumption of energy sources?

What are the future implications for these regions?

Describe the World Energy Balance in 1997.

What are the implications of what you have described both NOW and in the FUTURE?

World Energy Balance in 1997

http://thalimexco.com.vn/biofuel/?m=news&a=page&group=2&page_id=15

Think about:

What are the long term forecasts in terms of possible supply of these fuels?

This is another way of looking at the world energy balance.

What is the current picture of energy consumption?

How might this change?

Who is energy rich and who is energy poor?

Does the type of resource matter?

Who has the most renewables?

Who the most non-renewables?

What futures can be seen?

When the resources are split up do you get the same picture as when you have the info all on one map?

Energy security can be improved by:

• Greater energy efficiency

• Greater energy self-sufficiency

• Decentralization of energy production

• Short term stockpiles (90 days)

• Diversifying energy sources/ having multiple sources

• Physical and human factors from earlier card sort

What is energy poverty?

Energy and Poverty - Access to ElectricityOf the1.6 billion people today have no access to electricity, about 80% of these people are located in India (580 million) and sub-Saharan Africa (500 million). Four out of five people lacking access to electricity live in rural areas. By 2030, in the absence of radical new policies, 1.4 billion will still have no electricity.Traditional Biomass UseToday 2.4 billion people in developing countries rely heavily on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. The use of biomass in traditional and inefficient ways have significant implications: productivity, health, gender and environment. By 2030, over 2.6 million people in developing countries will continue to rely on biomass.Concluding RemarksIn the absence of radical new policies, energy poverty will still be a major issue in the next decades. Creating conditions to attract investment is the main challenge. Proper sequencing of market reforms are vital. Investment requirements for power generation in developing countries amount to 2.1 trillion US$ for the next 30 years.

• Energy Poverty is a term for a lack of access to electricity, heat, or other forms of Power. Often referring to the situation of peoples in the developing world, the term also implies any quality of life issues relating to this lack of access.

• Energy poverty is distinct from fuel poverty in that access is more of a problem than affordability. Energy poverty exists when the required infrastructure is not in place for energy delivery, most often electricity. Fuel poverty, on the other hand, exists when people do not have the ability to pay for energy, most often heating materials.

• According to the Energy Poverty Action initiative of the World Economic Forum, "Access to energy is fundamental to improving quality of life and is a key imperative for economic development. In the developing world, energy poverty is still rife. Nearly 1.6 billion people still have no access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)."[1]

Exam Practice

SAMS Mark scheme Q 1a