STEVE BENJAMIN

An Ideascape for Education: What Futurists Recommend

A glimpse into the future reveals actions educators can take now.

E ducational futurists offer a wealth cf ideas for those who are searching for a substantive

philosophy to guide education in the coming years. I recently analyzed the educational and societal futures litera ture to identify themes (Festinger and Katz 1953, Krippendorff 1980).' My research yielded information about trends in society, the family, the demo graphics of the nation, and the US and international economic structure (Benjamin 1987). Of the many trends discussed in the literature, 10 are of particular importance (see "Societal Trends," "Economic Trends," "Family Structure Trends," and "Demographic Trends").

In brief, the futurists construct an ideascape for education that suggests that global and multicultural pressures will alter the way of life in the United States. Because of technological ad vances, life will be characterized by rapid change; knowledge will become obsolete at a more rapid rate. School-

children will be more likely to come from single-parent homes or from homes in which both parents work Finally, the world of work will require the abilities to manage information and to work with people Workers will need high-level thinking skills as well as the ability to adapt Given this sce nario, what changes in education do futurists recommend?

My analysis of the literature identi fied numerous recommendations for educational change I discuss 14 of them here The themes appear in or der of frequency (that is, "active learn ing" appears first because references to this theme were most numerous)

Active LearningThe futurists' call for active learning should be understood in two ways First, students must participate in learning endeavors in which they en gage in the process of learning That is, learning is not seen as students' sitting at a desk listening to a teacher lecture; students are doing things Second, stu dents must be more active in deter mining the nature of their own educa tional programs They must be given more autonomy and power of choice Self (1978) lobbies for more active, experiential, real-world learning. "Ex periential education field trips, dem onstrations, investigative projects, and

Societal Trends

National and global interdependence. Futurists discuss multi-ethnic and multi cultural interdependence as welt as the interconnectedness of complex systems, either person-made (nuclear power plants and nations) or natural (the biosphere). Our world is shrinking for several reasons. For example, advances in communica tions, microelectronics, and transportation have made it physically easier and more enjoyable for people to travel about the globe. "We live in a globally interconnected world, in which biological, psychological, social, and environmental phenomena are all interdependent," writes Capra (1982, p. 19; see also Fantini 1977, Onstein 1981, Combs 1978 and 1981, Barnes 1978, Seif 1979, Brown and Saks 1984, Gardner 1985, Bjerstedt et al. 1982, Alley 1985, Wilson 1985).

Increasing change both in pace and in complexity. Most authors point to technology as the predominant factor causing change (Scan- et al. 1980, Ford 1980, DeBevoise 1982, Dede 1981, Shane and Tabler 1981, Toffler 1980, Pelton 1984). "If we could devise an index to measure change," observes Brown (1979), "we might conclude that the next three decades will bring at least two centuries' worth of changes, as measured in historical terms" (p. 3). Historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., (1986, p. 20) adds that "this cumulative increase in the rate of change has been the decisive factor in the making of the modem world."

"Short half-life" (Alley 1985) of knowledge. I n a time of change fueled by new technological and scientific discoveries, knowledge itself undergoes rapid restruc turing. We live in a world in which "the amount of knowledge increases geometri cally, and in which no one can keep pace with it..." (Kirschenbaum and Simon 1974, p. 267). "The world's store of knowledge has doubled and doubled again during the 20th century," writes Cornish (1986, p. 14; see also Arters 1980 and Abbott 1977).

hands-on labs" will grow in impor tance, according to Cornish (1986. p. 16). In addition, students will need more freedom to decide what they wish to study (Gay 1981, Albrecht 1984) Lewis (1981) suggests that

one major shift would be in the relation ship of the teacher and the learner. The old paradigm made the teacher responsible for the student's learning, with the student obliged to learn. The new paradigm of a learning society shifts the responsibility for learning to the learner .. . (original em phasis, pp 66-67).

A number of futurists describe a new collaborative role for teachers and stu dents in which students accept an Ac tive senior partnership role in the learning enterprise (see, for example, Kirschenbaum and Simon 1974, Wees 1975, Glaser 1975, Brown and Saks 1984, Miller 1981, Barnes 1978)

Higher Cognitive SkillsGenerally, futurists suggest that be cause of the nature of future society (that is, technological, overloaded with information, interdependent, global, change-driven), students and citizens must be able to think critically, uncover bias and propaganda, reason, question, inquire, use the scientific process, remain intellectually flexible, think about complex systems, think holistically, think abstractly, be cre ative, and view and read critically (Shane and Tabler 1981, Gay 1981, Laswell 1975, Ravitch 1983, Taylor 1985)

Service LearningFuturists view service learning as a way to involve students in active learn ing, to allow interaction with comrhu- nity adults and other youth, to intro duce students to agencies and institutions within their local communi ties, and to help youth gain a service ethic that will check tendencies toward unbridled self-interest (Schwartz et al. 1977, Apple 1983). Learning ought to focus on real problems, suggest Toffler (1981) and Shuman (1984), thus en abling students to provide services to the community Real service commit ments should be coupled with in-school analysis and discussion of those experi ences, recommends Wees (1975) Boyer

Economic Trends

The shift to an information- and service-based economy. For quite some) the U.S. economy has been experiencing a shift from a long-established industrial manufacturing base to that of a service, information, and high-technology base (Meierhenry 1981). Even though the sunset industries are declining, such work is not disappearing; there will just be less of it in the future (Nardone 1984).

TJte high-tech influence. Shane (1987) suggests that the near-future economy wilt be one in which "microbioelectronics" rule. Other authors note the glowing importance of biogenetics, physics, robotics, telecommunications, microelectronics; space, and the oceans (Brown and Saks 1984, Toffler 1980, Seif 1979, Pulliam 1980, Bright et al. 1984). However, although many people will use technology in the future, a relatively small percentage of the total work force will require sophisticated technical knowledge (Forbes 1984, Odden 1983, Rumberger 1984). Unfortunately, high-tech receives nigh publicity.

The need to shift fobs frequently. Futurists predict that various sectors of the economy will be prone to violent upheavals during which workers are displaced. As technological advances speed swifdy ahead, whole industries may be bom, grow to maturity, and die in a matter of a decade. In such an environment, k is likely that workers will find it necessary to shift from one job to another as many as four or five times over the course of their work lives (Gay 1981; Shane 1976a, 19766, 1987; Toffler 1980; Cetron et al. 1985; Cornish 1986).

(1984) recommends voluntary service in hospitals, museums, community agencies, and schools. Recognizing the importance of real experience in the development of responsible citizens, Etzioni (1982) recommends social agency internships for youth (For more views on service learning, see also Tyler 1975, Nash 1980, Omstein 1981. Van Avery 1980.)

Past-Present-Future FocusEducation should "move from past- oriented curriculums to past/present/ future-oriented curriculums." suggests Bames (1978. p. 124; see also Small 1981). Other writers support applica tion of a balanced time perspective to educational thinking and activity (Ev ans and Elium 1982, Singer 1974, Barnes 1978, Seif 1978). Because of

In a world where knowledge, skills, and values become obsolete more rapidly, education can no longer be reserved for the early years of life.

the interactivity of the future, present, and past, futurists stress the need for youth to consider their ability to con struct alternative futures Shane (1975) suggests that

one of the most important goals of educa tion in the next decade might well be to instill in youth a much greater awareness of alternatives and of their consequences. The curriculum for tomorrow's educa tional programs must help young learners recognize that the future is literally created by our decisions (p. 112).

Other futurists also urge that educa tion must pass on the belief that we shape the future by present actions (BjersreJt et al 1982. Seif 1979, Pulliam 1980. Come and Cavaliere 1982).

Lifelong LearningIn a world where knowledge, skills, and values become obsolete more rapidly, education can no longer be reserved for the early years of life Omstein (1981) suggests that

in line with the growing complexity of modem society and the corresponding need for people to have access to a greater variety of educational resources at differing stages of their lives, education will con tinue to become more a lifelong enterprise ... (p. 52)

Coombs (1982, p 146) writes that we must be involved in "building a pro gressively broader and more diversi fied 'learning network' combining formal, nonformal, and informal modes of education to serve the evolving lifelong learning needs of all members of the population" (For

MARCH 1989

more views on lifelong learning, see also Bestuzhev-Lada 1981, Ornstein 1982, Cornish 1986, Rumberger 1984, Shane and Tabler 1981. Glines 1978, Troutman and Palombo 1983, Henson and Balentine 1984, Wees 1975. Asi- mov 1976.)

Whole-Person EducationEducational futurists generally criti cize traditional education for overem phasizing the cognitive, while failing to recognize the importance of other components of one's personality. Combs (1981) suggests a more bal anced perspective, claiming that edu cation should not force a choice be tween 'smart psychotics or well- adjusted dopes" (p. 370). We must concentrate on developing mental, physical, and emotional health for the total person," stresses Furner (1984, p 8). Moreover, effective living, suggests Nash (1980) will require an education of the self "not merely those human qualities considered useful by the in dustrial and commercial interests of society, but the entire range of human capacities" so each person becomes "aware of himself entirely mind, body, feelings, spirit, imagination (p. 24)

Coping With DiversityGreater and expanded opportunities for communication and travel have increased contact with people from other countries and other cultures (Seif 1979. Gay 1981). Not only will we

Because knowledge in the future will have a short half-life, future-oriented educators advocate viewing learning as the active seeking of knowledge by each student.

live in a globally interdependent world in the coming years, but greater cultural and ethnic diversity will exist in our own nation and communities (for example, see Naisbitt 1982 and Toffler 1980) Thus, educational futur ists deduce the need for students to expect, understand, and cope with change, diversity, and national and in ternational interdependence. Educa tion must help students become flex ible, able to deal with ambiguities (Small 1981, Ford 1980). From an im age of a complex, change-driven world. Pulliam (1980) infers the need to accept change as inevitable and to be able to use it to advantage

Family Structure Trends

• Women in the workplace. Approximately 50 million American women are in the work force—nearly 53 percent of those over 16 who are capable of working, and nearly 45 percent of total employment—and it appears that in the future women will enter the work force at a faster rate than any other group (Naisbitt 1985, Cetron etal. 1985).

• Single-parent families. Many factors contribute to the increase in single-parent families, but divorce is perhaps the most visible, if not the most important, driving force behind this shift. Toffler (1980, p. 214) writes that "a staggering one in seven American children is raised by a single parent and that the number is even higher—one in four—in urban areas." Cetron and his coauthors (1985) document a near doubling in the percent of white families maintained by women between 1970 and 1984, up from 9 percent to 15 percent. Minority families are even more likely to be headed by females (23 percent of Hispanic and 40 percent of African-American families).

General EducationIn an environment where people will continue to forge complex social and technological systems, general pro cesses and general knowledge are thought not to pass out of vogue quiie so quickly as specialized training Toffler (1980) believes that in the fu ture, we will need to think like gener- alists, not specialists Moreover, a gen eral or liberal education allows a broad vision, the ability to see many dimensions of problems and of life (.see, for example, Small 1981, Shane 1976a, 1976b, DcBcvoi.se 19H2) Tyler (1981, p 144) writes that

occupational competency increasingly de mands broad vision, flexibility in outlook, knowledge of alternative conceptions in place of narrow views, rigid conceptions, and unchanging .specific skills

Transdisciplinary EducationIn the future, learning will be (entered around ideas and problems, not frag mented into discrete subject areas controlled by a scven-perkxl day The educational futurists call for a curricu lum that is activity- and idea-based, a transdisciplinary one Small (1981) urges adoption of a vertical, thematic- approach that integrates many disci plines and different levels of complex ity around a (ore idea. Futurists advo cate this view because of the interdependent nature of the world and its pesky, system-style problems. That i.s, the complexity of t(x.l:iy'^ prob lems requires us to draw solutions from knowledge in a variety of fields in order to foresee other problems that may be created by shortsighted solutions. For example, the use of chemical pesticides to increase frxxj production causes other problems. Van Avery (1980) notes that

curriculum in its present departmentalized setting is as outmoded as medieval medi cine knowledge is not segmented hut interrelated. Future concerns can be con sidered only a.s interdependent wholes, not a.s segmented parts (p 442)

McClure (1981) warns thai

to continue to narrowly compartmentalize curricular content may inhibit young stcrs abilities to generalize, see productive relationships, or be effective solvers of complex problems (p 183)

10 Enrc.ATiONAi. I.FADERSHIP

Personalized LearningThe futurists call for personalise! learning is predicated on the notion that the many differences that exist among people should he cherished as a major source of creativity and diver sity. Comhs (1981) notes that

for 150 years we have been trying to teach students as though they were alike We have grouped them, trac kcd them, grade- leveled them, and iried to homogemze and organi/e them into one kind of group or another for administrative expedience <p 372)

The futurists adv<x-ate personalized education, which emphasizes the ac quisition of learning goals according to the abilities of individual students and without adherence to arbitrary time schedules. Barnes (1978) sug gests that since all students are unique they need not begin at the same place and end at the same place in a set amount of time" (p 124). Glaser (1975) urges future educators to remove arbitrary- time units, grade levels, and unduly classificatory activi ties, and to use flexible environments and curriculums to meet the learning needs of individual students

Process ApproachBecause knowledge in the future will have a short half-life, future-oriented educators advocate the shift from a view of learning as the passive acqui sition of discipline-based subject mat ter to one of process the active seek ing of knowledge by each student (see, for example, Shane 1977). Van Avery (1979) suggests that "there will be a need to redefine knowledge with the emphasis on learning how to learn, rather than on learning facts, learning would move from a knowing to a searching emphasis" (p 10; see also Orsini-Romano and Pascale 1978, Ford 1980, Miller 1981. Walz and Leu 1979. Longin 1984. Fletcher and Wooddell 19^6. Boucouvalas 1933. Shanc 1976a and 19""). To force home the point, Kirschenbaum and Simon (1974, p 266-267, in pan) pre sent examples

Traditionally, .subject matter has been re garded as a fixed body of knowledge which all people needed to know Shake speare, the pans of speech, quadratic equa tions, the major products of Argentina, and

Demographic Trends

Graying population. The median age of the population of the U.S. is advancing. Cetron and his coauthors (1985, p. 37) project that the median age will rise to 36.3 by the year 2000, up from 30.6 in 1982, and that the proportion of the population over 65 will rise from the current 12 percent to an estimated 17 percent during the same period.

Growth in minority populations. M inority populations will continue to grow, relative to the overall population, with Hispanics increasing faster than any other group. Hispanics will become our largest ethnic group, soon outnumbering African- Americans, predict Naisbitt (1982), Long (1981), and Shane (1979). Further, minority population growth will be found primarily in the large urban areas (Wegmann 1980) and in the southern and western sections (Furner 1984) of the nation.

the pans of the digestive system were treated as the ends of education More recently, we have realized that, in a world in which the amount of knowledge in creases geometrically, in which no one can keep pace with it. we need to change our emphasis from what to leam to hou' to learn The shift has been from content to pr<xx*ss (original emphasis'!

Education for CommunicationThe futures literature contains many references to the importance of inter personal communication and "peo pling" skills (see. for example. Shive 1980, Rumberger 1984. Forbes 1984, Herman and Roderick 19~V). Among the survival skills of a new age are communication skills, including the ability to speak other languages (Shanc and Tabler 1981) There is a growing need for workers who can communicate and interact with others in order to make decisions in a dem ; ocratic workplace (Abbott 19^). Gay (1981, p. 84) sums up the futurist perspective:

If, indeed, the greatest challenges of the next few decades are going to be people- and process-oriented, then knowing how to communicate with and relate to others is fundamental to the nurturing of human potential as well as to the revitalizing of each individual

Early Childhood EducationEarly education is preventive prob lem-solving that will provide students a proper base from which to build Boyer (1984) reminds us that the earlv years are the most important Futurists also note that because of the changing

In education, large size is a problem, not an economic cost benefit. Schools should be modeled more after the family than big business, with its overattention to economies of scale.

family structure (that is. more families in which both parents work or the single parent works), institutions are needed to care for and nurture the very young (Ford 1980. Shane 19"9V Cornish (19861 and Etzioni (1982) ad vocate shifting scarce educational re sources from the higher levels (colleg es and universities) to meet the needs of young children If everyone who is now teaching remedial classes in jun ior and senior high schools were transferred to elementary schools," suggests Ravitch (19"'9. p 82). "the pupil-teacher ratio could be smaller in the lower grades and larger in the upper grades." thus concentrating re sources where thev are needed most

SEPTEMBER 1989 11

Small StructureThe futurists believe that schools are too big, even high schools In educa tion, large size is a problem, not an

economic cost benefit. Some authors suggest that schools should be mod eled more after the family than after big business, with its overattention to

Curriculum for the New Millennium

LeRoy E. Hay and Arthur Roberts

"Curriculum for the New Millennium: Trends Shaping Our Schools," a position paper published by Connecticut ASCD, identifies 10 trends that will affect the curriculum and its delivery as we move toward the year 2001.

The report was written by a committee that included classroom teachers (kinder garten through university level), building and district administrators, and represen tatives of service agencies and boards of education. The committee began by generating a list of trends that will affect schools by the start of the 21st century. They then researched the possible consequences of each trend. For over a year, they discussed the trends and their impact on schools, until the 10 most significant trends emerged:

The world of work will be characterized by a continued shift from an industrial work force to an information and service work force. Technology will play a major role in almost all segments of the work force. Tomorrow's workers will need skills and attitudes different from those of today's workers.

Technology will become even more powerful, convenient, and complex.

The population that the educational system will serve will be quite different from today's population. It will be more ethnic and paradoxically both younger and older.

The world will continue to become more globally interdependent.

The American family will continue to be diverse. No single family type will represent the majority of Americans.

Our society will demand an even more convenient lifestyle, expecting all institutions to deliver their services with ease and speed.

The locus of control in education will continue to shift from the federal to the state level and from the central office to the building level. Decision making within school districts will be shared more with teachers.

A shortage of qualified teachers and administrators will necessitate alternative approaches to training, recruiting, and certifying professional educators.

Alternatives to* public education will continue to grow in popularity and to gain public support

The number, frequency, and complexity of values questions confronting edu cators will increase dramatically.

For each trend, the report predicts consequences and lists possible effects on the curriculum and its delivery. For example, the "Age of Convenience" trend projects that teenagere will join the work force at earlier ages and will work longer hours; as a result, educatois will rethink school schedules and the role of homework.

The 32-page report is available for $7.00 from Edward H. Bourque, Assistant Superintendent, Fairfield Public Schools, Fairfield, CT 06430; (203) 255-8372.

LeHoy E. Hay is Department Chair, English, Manchester High School, 143 E. Middle Turnpike, Manchester, CT 06040. Arthur Roberta is Professor of Education, University of Connecticut, Dept. of Education, Box U-33, Storrs, CT 06268. They are co-editois of the report.

economies of scale (Burdin and Nutter 1984). Ravitch (1983, p 320) writes that

unlike some present schools, which are as vast and impersonal as factories, the school of the future should be modeled on a family; here, caring, knowledgeable adults would guide and instruct young people and each person would be special

Several authors predict that schools will become smaller in order to combat alienation and violence (McDaniel 1974, Suppes 1975, Cornish 1986). (For addi tional information about the desirability of small- or appropriate-scale education, sqe also Henson and Balentine 1984, Combs 1981, Small 1981, Shane 1980.)

Awareness and ActionThe future will arrive ahead of sched ule By considering the futurists' rec ommendations for change, perhaps we can restructure education before it is too late. With proper future-ori ented pedagogical, curricular, and or ganizational changes, we can help stu dents meet the challenges of new ages.D

'I reviewed 209 documents published between 1974 and 1987 A total of 2,223 themes (for example, "Future .students need advanced reasoning skills") were re corded in a computerized data base I then reanalyzed and combined them into 53 categories using the constant comparative method (Glaser and Strauss 1967)

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Steve Benjamin is C(x>rdmator, Curricu lum and Instruction, Metropolitan School District of Decatur Township, 5108S High School Rd. Indianapolis, IN 46241

14 EnucATioNAi. LEADERSHIP

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