Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change...

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www.ricardo-aea.com

Ricardo-AEA

ClimaEast

Workshop - Baku Richard Smithers

Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change

vulnerability and impact assessment

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd Ricardo-AEA in Confidence 2

Workshop Agenda – Day 1

• Welcome speech and introductions

• Introduction to the workshops

• Expectations

– Definition of priority areas to be addressed

– Purpose of the modelling tool

– Strengths and weaknesses of classes of models used in climate change

– Review technical characteristics of potential models to facilitate selection

– Identification of selection criteria

– Potential issues

• Initial review of the short-listed models identified


Welcome

and introductions


Introduction to the workshop


• More than 30-years’ experience in the environmental field

• Background in land management, including forestry

• Assessing impacts and vulnerabilities and considering adaptation measures since

1998, including involvement in developing and applying models and decision

frameworks

• Lead adviser on ecosystem-based adaptation in supporting EC DG CLIMA with regard

to development of EU Adaptation Strategy

• Providing expert input to: development of a Climate Adaptation Support Package for

Turkey, defining a pilot approach on estimating the direct and indirect impacts of

extreme events on economic activity for EC DG CLIMA, the UK Climate Change Risk

Assessment, the UK National Ecosystem Assessment

• Currently:

– Preparing Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures Chapter of Palestine’s

Initial National Communication Report to the UNFCCC

– Supporting the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution process in Bangladesh

– Contributing to a meta-review of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) mainstreaming

for EC DG CLIMA regarding effective performance of tools for climate action policy.

Richard Smithers, Knowledge Leader: Ecosystems and Principal

Consultant


Expectations


Expectations – Definition of priority areas


Climate Change

Adaptation

Water resources

Agriculture

Forestry

Water-related natural events

Others???

Definition of priority areas

Water authorities Government

Farmers and foresters Industry

Cities and

communities Others???


Expectations – Purposes of the modelling tool


• Audience – Who will use the outputs?

– Researchers?

– Policy-makers?

– Practitioners?

• What are their aspirations for how they will use them?

• For example:

– To assess vulnerabilities, and/or

– To identify and develop adaptation options, and/or

– To enable stakeholder engagement.

• Discuss…




Inter-relations between definitions of terms used in IPCC’s 4th

Assessment Report (top) and 5th AR (bottom)


Strengths and weaknesses of modelling

approaches


Conceptual model of the integrated system

(Nay et al. 2015, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2014.912196)


• Equation-based models

– Start with a set of equations that describe relationships among variables of a system

(top down)

• Agent-based models

– Start with behaviours of constituent agents of a system (bottom up)

• Geographic-based models

– Geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial information from a variety of

sources to be manipulated in a common projection format

• Participation-based models

– Involve stakeholders in role-playing games to understand climate vulnerabilities,

explore plausible futures, and inform adaptation decisions

Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change


Model type Advantages Disadvantages

Equation-

based

models

Fewer parameters than ABM

Amenable to making precise

predictions and has less

parameters to estimate

Can be viewed as “black box” – less

transparent

Numeric outputs can be taken as certain

May not account for macro-level impacts of

social norms or individual decisions

Uncertainty not always explicit in results

Agent-based

models

Explore “what–if” scenarios

Evaluate competing models of

human behaviour vs observation

Better understand causal links

Simulate adaptation

Can be viewed as “black box”

Data hungry to capture reality

Computationally complex

Geographic-

based

models

Represent detailed spatial patterns

and facilitate visualization

Can include location-specific assets

(e.g. flood protection)

Not good at representing dynamic diverse

processes

May need to be informed by equation- and

agent-based modelling

Participation-

based

models

Can help stakeholders understand

how decisions link to consequences

Can adapt to different priorities

Can inform cost:benefit analyses

May require simplified input from other

models

Assumptions and process need to be

transparent and recorded

Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change


“As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also

know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not

know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.”

Donald Rumsfeld in a US Department of Defense news briefing in 2002.

• All models are wrong

• Uncertainties increase with down-scaling

• Uncertainties are compounded the more complex the model

• Strategic decisions need to address the full range of likely variation in projected

changes and their impacts

• It is important not to select one preferred future in the hope that it will come true

• Adaptation measures are required that will be beneficial whatever the extent, rate or

even direction of climate change.

Managing for uncertainty


• Discuss…

What type of modelling approaches are required in Azerbaijan

and Georgia


Review technical characteristics of

potential models that may facilitate

selection


• Coverage of priority areas

• Where the model has previously been applied

• Relevance to the region (Azerbaijan and/or Georgia)

• Whether climate change is implicit within the model

• Type of adaptation model (equation-based; agent-based; geographic-based;

participation-based)

• Technical parameters and resultant data requirements (inputs)

• Technical ability, i.e. what does the model do? (outputs)

• Scale

• Ability to run on beneficiaries PCs

• Accessibility (i.e. any associated fees)

• Discuss…

Characteristics being assessed


Identification of selection criteria


• With reference to:

– Priority areas

– Purposes

– Classes of models

– Technical characteristics

• Discuss…

Identification of selection criteria


Potential issues for models


• Data availability

• Data collection

• Training needs

• Discuss…

Choosing a model – potential issues


Initial review of short-listed models


Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs





© Ricardo-AEA Ltd

www.ricardo-aea.com

Ricardo-AEA

ClimaEast

Workshop - Baku Richard Smithers

Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change

vulnerability and impact assessment


Workshop Agenda – Day 2

• Initial review of the short-listed models identified (continued)

• Case studies

• Discussion on short-listed models

• Working in groups on identified issues, criteria for model selection, possible

setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the short-listed models

• Presentation of the preliminary conclusions of the groups regarding preferences of the

short-listed models

• Discussion on further steps and follow-up of the workshop

• Closure of workshop


Initial review of short-listed models


• Richard Smithers to complete bullet point based on Day 1 discussion

• Replace slide with a photo and summary

Summary of discussion from day 1


Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate

Resilience Evaluation and Awareness

Tool


• Objectives

– To obtain short- and long-term projections (for 2035 and 2060) of future climate

change for the Las Vegas Valley

– To identify South Nevada Water Authority’s (SNWA) assets most vulnerable to

weather and climate-related threats, based on climate projections

– To use the risk reduction unit (RRU) metric provided by CREAT to develop cost-

effective adaptation strategies to minimize threats and demonstrate resilience (or

lack of resilience) to future climate threats both with and without adaptation.

– To familiarize staff with the climate change risk assessment process and develop a

database, including vulnerability of SNWA’s assets, threats and potential

adaptation measures for

iterative use in future

assessments.

Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and

Awareness Tool


• Input data required

– Digitised boundaries of the utility operating area

– Historical temperature and precipitation data for developing projections

– Regional projected climate information (within model)

– Identity of threats (based on SNWA staff’s consideration of CREAT outputs )

– Catalogue of assets (provided by SNWA)


Awareness Tool


• Types of outputs

– Future climate projections

– Priority threats and assets

– Preliminary risk assessment

– Increased understanding and consensus built around key risk assessment

parameters (e.g. climate data, likelihood, consequences).


Awareness Tool


• Although standard data is US-specific, there is an option to import historical climate

data (and climate projections) from Azerbaijan.

• Modelling approach combines elements of quantitative assessment with stakeholder

participation.

• CREAT provides a single platform to apply climate change data and take stakeholders

through an assessment and decision-making process. However, the focus is on water

utilities rather than wider cities and catchments.

Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia


Case Study 2 – EU Climate Adapt


• Objectives

– To assist users in developing climate change adaptation strategies and plans by

providing guidance, links to relevant sources and dedicated tools.

• Applied at a city scale in Turkey by Ricardo-AEA

– A UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office-funded project following on from application

of this approach to 21 cities in the EU.

– The city of Bursa has a population of over 2 million and climate change and

economic growth require adaptation strategies, especially regarding flooding and

drought.

– A capacity-building approach was taken to lead municipal

government officers through a stepwise process and

develop an adaptation strategy. This included three

workshops in Turkey, one of which focused specifically on

water management.



• Input data

– Identifying current and future climate change

impacts

– Information about ongoing adaptation activities

– Good practice examples.


– Identification of adaptation options

– Selection of adaptation options based on cost-

benefit analysis

– Adaptation strategy for implementation

– Monitoring and evaluation plans.



• Applicability for Azerbaijan and Georgia

– The Climate Adapt model and adaptation support tool are participation based and

more flexible than taking a quantitative approach and using a one-size fits all model.

– The approach can:

• Enable dialogue around the most important aspects of adaptation

• Support information on vulnerability from a range of sources

• Lead to cost-benefit analysis of options

• Provide a robust adaptation strategy at a city, regional or national scale.



Case Study 3 – FAO: MOSAICC –

MOdelling System for Agricultural

Impacts of Climate Change


Case Study 3 – FAO- MOSAICC – MOdelling System for

Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

• Objectives

– To use an integrated package of

models to assess the impact of climate

change on agriculture, including the

variations in crop yields and their effect

on national economies.


– The models are robust and can work

with minimal data, but it is essential to

have good quality time series of

weather observations, over a at least

20-30 years at least for a significant

number of stations.

• Types of outputs (see figure)


• The models:

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PORTAL

(SD PORTAL)

– Used for downscaling climate data.

This tool is an adaptation of the portal

developed within the EU ENSEMBLES

project.

AQUACROP

– Based on the FAO crop model for

estimating crop productivity in relation

to water supply and agronomic

management. The overall framework is

based on plant physiological and soil

water budgeting concepts.

WABAL

– A crop specific water balance model

derived from AgroMetShell, the FAO

crop yield forecasting software.



STREAM

– A grid-based precipitation-runoff model

which simulates the discharge rate in

large catchment areas.

DYNAMIC CGE MODEL

– Designed to model the future evolution

of the national economies and how

they are affected by variations of crop

yields under different climate change

projections. Policy response options

can also be tested.

OTHER UTILITIES

– These include: data interpolation tools

(kriging, AURELHY), reference

evapotranspiration, and planting date

and growing season length calculation

tools.




• The green Moroccan Plan, a large scale

agricultural development strategy in

Morocco, is expected to boost the

agricultural sector and promote rural

development

– The strategy will be challenged by

climate change, as crop yields and

water resources are expected to

decline

– A total of 11 institutions are

participating in the use of MOSAICC in

Morocco at national and regional

levels.


• Deployment of MOSAICC for green

Morroco was achieved in three steps:

– (1) installation of the server and the

software,

– (2) training of the system

administrators and

– (3) training of the national experts on

the system, the models and the data.




• Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia

– Designed to be distributed to national

institutions

– Different models should be run by

researchers with relevant expertise in

climate and/or agriculture sciences as

well as good computer skills

– Promotes synergy between

stakeholders (climate, water, soil,

agriculture, economy)

– FAO provides training and support

– Web portal-based, though investment

and hosting of server system required

– Remote access through web interfaces

opens opportunities for participatory

approach. Users do not need to install

any software on PC as the system is

accessed through usual web browsers.

Case Study 3 – FAO: MOSAICC – Modelling System for


– Easy data exchange, low computing

time and automatic data formatting

and unit conversion

– Data can be tracked down the flow

– Replication and comparison is easy.

– Once installed, the system requires

maintenance but no licensing cost.


Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water

Integrated Model


• Objectives

• To investigate climate and land use

change impacts at the regional scale.

• The model

• SWIM is an ecohydrological integrated

river basin model

• Processes are interrelated at a daily time

step using regionally available data and

considering feedbacks

• The model set-up and post-processing

are supported by a GIS interface.

Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model



– Topography

– Land use

– Soil distribution and soil parameters

– Surface waters and river network

– Climatic and precipitation stations

– Water and land use management data

– Measured discharge data

– Measured values of nutrient concentrations (for calibration and validation).

• Types of output

• It simulates:

– Runoff generation

– Nutrient and carbon cycling

– Plant growth and crop yield

– River discharge and erosion.






– High level of data requirements and effort to set-up this modelling approach.

– Benefits over traditional hydrological models in terms of understanding the

interactions with vegetation and water quality.



Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water

Evaluation and Planning System


Integrated Approach Unique approach for conducting integrated water

resources planning assessments

Stakeholder Process Transparent structure facilitates engagement of diverse

stakeholders in an open process

Water Balance

A database maintains water demand and supply

information to drive mass balance model on a link-node

architecture

Simulation Based

Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, infiltration, crop

requirements, flows, and storage, and pollution

generation, treatment, discharge and instream water

quality under varying hydrologic and policy scenarios

Policy Scenarios

Evaluates a full range of water development and

management options, and takes account of multiple and

competing uses of water systems

User-friendly Interface Graphical drag-and-drop GIS-based interface with flexible

model output as maps, charts and tables

Model Integration

Dynamic links to other models and software, such as

QUAL2K, MODFLOW, MODPATH, PEST, Excel and

GAMS

Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water Evaluation and Planning System



– Water supply and demand

– Scenarios

Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water Evaluation and Planning System


– Current and future water availability

– Can link with:

• Energy modelling

• LEAP



– Can help address issues around agricultural water allocation and future

supply/demand issues



Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt

Ecosystems in a Changing Environment


• Objectives

– To describe long-term forest behaviour under

changing environmental conditions

– To analyse:

– Forest productivity (11 European tree species)

– The carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets of

forests including soil

– To derive reduced models for application in

information systems

– To analyse adaption of forestry to climate change

by management

– To estimate the bioenergy potential from short

rotation coppice.

Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing

Environment


• The model

– Describes processes at tree and stand level based on eco-physiological

experiments, long-term observations and physiological modelling at an intermediate

level of complexity.

– Resolution:

• Time step: 1 day – 1 year

• Simulation period: 1 – 200 years

• Spatial: Cohorts of trees in a forest stand

– Operating system: Linux, Unix, Windows

– Programming language: Fortran90

– Model run time: Dependent on the number of sites, scenarios and simulation time


Environment



– Daily meteorology,

– soil description (physical and chemical),

– forest stand description


– Water, carbon and nitrogen dynamics (pools and fluxes) of forest stands including:

• Soil

• Growth behaviour of forest stands (diameter, height, volume)


Environment



Environment



– Can help address issues around forestry, energy and climate change mitigation as

well as adaptation.



Working in groups on identified issues,

criteria for model selection, possible

setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the

short-listed models


• From day 1 choose one of the key issues you have identified

– Water resources

– Agriculture

– Forestry

– Water related disaster

• Choose a model from the short-list and/or case studies

– What are the data requirements

– What are the outputs that you’d like to see and can the mode produce these

– What are the training and capacity requirements of that model

• Feedback to main group at the end

• This will help us understand if the short-listed models are suitable and help you

identify some of the key inputs and data requirements

Breakout groups


Presentation of the

preliminary conclusions

of the groups regarding

preferences of the short-

listed models


Discussion on further steps and follow-up

of the workshop

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd

www.ricardo-aea.com

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E:

W:

Ricardo-AEA Ltd

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Fermi Avenue

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Richard Smithers

01235 75 3615

[email protected]

www.ricardo-aea.com

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Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change...

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