COST Action TU1001 Public Private Partnerships in Transport:

Trends & Theory P3T3

Athena Roumboutsos Action TU1001 Chair

Assoc. Professor Dpt. Shipping, Trade and Transport, University of the Aegean, Greece

PPPs in Transport: Trends & Theory

  Introduction to COST Action TU1001 – Public Private Partnerships in Transport: Trends & Theory (P3T3)

  P3T3 Objectives

  P3T3 Set up

  P3T3 Research

  P3T3 & Future

Overview

P3T3 Network: Who’s Who

5 Non-COST Countries : AU, HK, CH, US, AL & WB

OR ≅ 100 Researchers from approx. 50 institutes

COST Action TU1001, 2010 - 2014

P3T3: Objectives (Memorandum of Understanding,

MoU)

  ….The aim of the Action is to develop a theoretical basis for PPPs in the transport sector grounded on the multidisciplinary analysis of an extensive cross-sectoral and transnational empirical data-set.

  ….. a shift from a descriptive to a normative approach

……for the prediction and forecasting of variations, impacts and outcomes.

European PPP Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

Number of deals

Value in Billion Euro

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04 The Market, 2010, EIB The Market, 2011, EIB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

UK

All Others

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

UK

All Others

European Transport PPP Market

Share of Number of Transport deals

Share of Value of Transport PPPs

Ref. Andreas Kappeler and Mathieu Nemoz (2010), EIB Economic and Financial Report 2010/04

European PPP Market 2003-2012 by Volume and Number of projects

(source: EPEC, 2012)

  1990-2006 Transport 80% of value

  Since 2010 Transport below 50%   + ramifications (eg. slow

down, renegotiations etc.)

P3T3: Objectives (MoU)

  Decision making process   Selection, implementation and

operation of PPP transport projects considering sustainable procurement‘ and value propositions‘

  PPP performance   CSF, KPIs, test criteria

  Impact of External Events   Implications of the financing

arrangement.

  Modal perspective

  National Perspective

Organizational Set up

Core Group

  WG1 Leader: Nunzia Carbonara, Politecnico di Bari (IT)

  WG2 Leader: Champika Liyanage, University of Central Lancashire (UK)

  WG3 Leader: Athena Roumboutsos, University of the Aegean (GR) & Geert Dewulf, University of Twente (NL)

  AWG1 Leader: Koen Verhoest, University of Antwerp (BE)

  AWG2 Leader: Rosario Macario, IST (PT)

  Vice-Chair: Thierry Vanelslander, University of Antwerp (BE)

  Chair: Athena Roumboutsos, University of the Aegean (EL)

Research WG: Decision Models

Deterministic Models

Stochastic Models

Flexible Models

Complete Contracts

Incomplete Contracts

Real Options Flexibility Theory Risk Mitigation Strategies Tendering Field of Applicability

Policy Guidance Framework

TEST/SIMULATE/SURVEY

Research WG: Performance Step 5:

Performance Analysis and Improvement

Step 1: Performance

Definition

Step 2: Objectives (at Different

levels)

Step 3: Criteria

(Based on KPIs and CSF)

Step 4: Benchmarking

Policy Guidance Framework

Research AWG: Modal Context

  Case Study Database

FOR

  Testing Theories

  Benchmarks

  Analysis

  Synthesis

  …..References http://www.ppptransport.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=81&Itemid=78

Research AWG: National Context

  National Characteristics Database   Legal framework   Business structures   Etc

  Impact of External events   Macroeconomic

Figures   Transport Demand

FOR

  Testing Theories

  Benchmarks

  Analysis

  Synthesis

  Correlations

  …..References

http://www.ppptransport.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=82&Itemid=82

Research WG: “Impact of External Events”

  Addressing Contract Incompleteness   Changes in initial

Assumptions   Changes in initial

Predictions   Changes in initial “values”   Changes in Perceptions   Changes transport market

structure & regulations

  New Financing Models

  New Needs in Transport

  New Value creation

  New PPP Models

  Addressing Existing PPPs   Renegotiations

Complete Contracts

Incomplete Contracts

  Survey on Risk “shift”   DP – shift (delta) in estimated risk probability of

occurrence   DI – shift (delta) in estimated risk impact

Research WG: Addressing Incompleteness Examples of Work Underway

Countries without a sovereign debt crisis

-1.0000

-0.5000

0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

DP_NO

DI_NO

Initial Findings

Countries with a sovereign debt crisis

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

DP_Yes

DI_Yes

Initial Findings

Connecting Dots … Research

Flexible Decision Models

KPIs & CSFs

Addressing Incompleten

ess

Policy Guidelines

Transport Policy Procurement / Contract Guidelines

Model Building

Model Testing

Expected Outcome

P3T3 Value Propositions Visualizing flexible Value System models

Research

Addressing Incompleteness

P3T3 Now & Future

Why PPPs?

  Because Transport PPPs are under stress

  Because they are too many and too important to fail

  Because there are too many implications not to take scientifically founded decisions

What to do?

  Identify the value structure (what is value for the various parties and how it is assessed)

  Test the value structure (how are they combined to make a viable endeavor)

  P3T3 & CV

Dissemination 2013

  March 18-20, 2013; Conference, Public Private Partnerships Body of Knowledge; Preston, UK; Organized by University of Central Lancaster, CIB and COST Action TU1001 (P3T3); http://www.pppconference2013.com/May 22, 2013;

  May 22, 2013; International Transport Forum/OECD; Side Event: Value Creation and Capture: Next Generation of Transport Public Private Partnerships; Leipzig, Germany; http://2013.internationaltransportforum.org/value-creation-and-capture

  June 17-19, 2013; Conference, Innovative Public Finance, Special Session P3T3 Case Study Showcase; Milano, Italy; http://www.ipfconference.org/

  July 15-18 2013; Conference, WCTRS, Special Session P3T3; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; http://www2.wctr2013rio.com/

  August 5-7, 2013; Conference, 1st International Public Private Partnership Conference, Special Session P3T3 (TBC); Dalian, China; http://ppp-china.dlut.edu.cn/

  September 30 – October 2, 2013; European Transport Conference, Special Session P3T3; Frankfurt, Germany; http://etcproceedings.org/

  November 6-7, 2013; Conference, "Global challenges in Public Private Partnerships: Cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary solutions?"; Antwerp, Belgium; Co-organized with COST Action TU1001; http://www.ua.ac.be/main.aspx?c=*TPR&n=112187

And…

  Training Courses

  STSM

  Journal Special Issues

  Books

P3T3 Network Motto

  Mobilize private finance

  Optimize PPP agreements in the Transport Sector - the most sensitive to the global economy sector

  Visualize and prepare for the future

  Empower Innovation and Sustainability

MOVE Europe

www.ppptransport.eu www.cost.eu/domains_actions/tud/Actions/TU1001&

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