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OPERATIONS RESEARCH, Vol. 25, No. 2, March-April 1977

THE 1976 LANCHESTER PRIZE

Call for Nominations

Each year since 1954 the Council of the Operations Research Society of America has offered the Lanchester Prize for the best English-language published contribution in operations research. The Prize for 1976 consists of $2,000 and a commemorative medallion.

The screening of books and papers for the 1976 Prize will be carried out by a committee appointed by the Council of the Society. To be eligible for consideration, the book or paper must be nominated to the committee. Nominations may be made by anyone; this notice constitutes a call for nominations.

To be eligible for the Lanchester Prize, a book, a paper, or group of papers must meet the following requirements:

(1) It must be on an operations research subject, (2) It must carry a 1976 publication date, (3) It must be written in the English language, and (4) It must have appeared in the open literature.

The book or paper(s) may be a case history, a report of research represent- ing new results, or primarily expository.

Judgments will be made by the committee using the following criteria:

(1) The magnitude of the contribution to the advancement of the state of the art of operations research,

(2) The originality of the ideas or methods, (3) New vistas of application opened up, (4) The degree to which unification or simplification of existing theory

or method is achieved, and (5) Expository clarity and excellence.

Nominations should be sent to:

Ralph L. Disney, Chairman 1976 Lanchester Prize Committee Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109.

Nominations may be in any form, but must include as a minimum the title(s) of paper(s) or book, author(s), place and date of publication.

365



366 Announcements

Supporting statements bearing on the worthwhileness of the publication in terms of the five criteria will be helpful, but are not required. Each nomination will be carefully screened by the committee, but nominations should be received by May 1, 1977 to allow time for adequate review.

Announcement of the results of the committee and ORSA Council action, as well as award of any prize(s) approved, will be made at the 52nd national meeting of the Society, November 6-9, 1977, in Atlanta, Georgia.

Lanchester Prize Committee-1977

Professor Ralph L. Disney Chairman of Committee Department of Industrial and

Operations Engineering The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109

Dr. Daniel E. Cullen Operations Research and

Consulting Mathtech P. 0. Box 2392 Princeton, NJ 08540

Mr. Robert L. Farrell Vector Research, Inc. P. 0. Box 1506 Ann Arbor, MI 48106

Professor Arthur Geoffrion Graduate School of Management University of California, Los

Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90024

Professor James Templeton Department of Industrial

Engineering University of Toronto Toronto M5S, Canada

Professor Robert M. Thrall Department of Mathematical

Sciences Rice University Houston, TX 77001



Announcement Schedule of Future ORSA/TIMS Meetings

1977 May 9-11 San Francisco, CA San Francisco Hilton Chairman: DAVID SCHRADY, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93940

Nov. 6-9 Atlanta, GA Peach Tree Center Plaza Hotel Chairman: JERRY BANKS, 535 High Brook Drive NE, Atlanta, GA 30342

1978 May 1-3 New York, NY Americana Hotel Chairman: PETER A. DEMETRIOU, Celanese Corporation, 522 Fifth Avenue, New

York, NY 10022

Nov. 12-16 Los Angeles, CA Bonadventure Hotel Chairman: HARRY GROSSMAN, 280 North Kentner Avenue, Los Angeles,

CA 90049

1979 Apr. 29-May 1 New Orleans, LA Hyatt Regency Hotel Chairman: IRVING H. LAVALLE, Tulane Univ., Graduate School of Business

Administration, New Orleans, LA 70118

Oct. 21-24 Milwaukee, WI Marc Plaza Hotel Chairman: RUSSELL W. FENSKE, Univ. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Mil-

waukee, WI 53201

1980 May 4-7 Washington, D.C. Shoreham Hotel Chairman: Donald Gross, George Washington Univ., Washington, D.C. 20052

Nov. 10-12 Houston, TX Regency Hyatt House Hotel Chairman: F. T. Sparrow, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. 20550



CONTENTS TECHNOMETRICS, Volume 19, No. 1, February 1977

Two Diagnostic Displays for Robust Regression Analysis

L. Denby and C. L. Mallows

Detection of Influential Observations in Linear Regression

R. Dennis Cook

The Robustness of Efficiency of Ad- justed Trimmed Estimators in Linear Regression

Effat Moussa-Hamouda and Fred C. Leone

Centering and Scaling in Ridge Regres- sion

P. J. Brown

A Mixtures Model with Inverse Terms Norman R. Draper and

Ralph C. St. John

Restricted Exploration of Mixtures by Symmetric-Simplex Design

S. K. Saxena and A. K. Nigam

Optimal Designs for Two-Non-Interac- tive Treatments

Ralph A. Bradley and A. Hedayat

The Design of Incomplete Multinomial Samples: The Nested Case

H. H. Oxspring and L. R. LaMotte

Screening Based on Normal Variables D. B. Owen and

Yueh-ling Hsiao Su

A Study of Distributional Shape in Life Testing

Vern T. Farewell and Ross L. Prentice

Uniformly Most Powerful Unbiased Tests on the Scale Parameter of a Gamma Distribution with a Nuisance Shape Parameter

Max Engelhardt and Lee J. Bain

Comparison of Prediction Intervals for Failure Times When Life is Exponen- tial

Kenneth S. Kaminsky

Efficient Unbiased Quantile Estimators for Moderate-Size Complete Samples From Extreme-Value and Weibull Distributions: Confidence Bounds and Tolerance and Prediction Intervals

Nancy R. Mann and Kenneth W. Fertig

Minimum Variance Unbiased Estima- tion of P[Y<X] in the Normal Case

Wayne A. Woodward and Gary D. Kelley

NOTE

Derivation of Single-State Attribute Sampling Plans with one of the p's Larger Than 0.5

Shaul P. Ladany

BOOK REVIEWS

LETTER TO THE EDITOR

ERRATA

NOTICE

TECHNOMETRICS is published quarterly in February, May, August, and

November by the TECHNOMETRICS Management Committee of the American Society

for Quality Control and the American Statistical Association.

The annual subscription rate for members of the American Society

for Quality Control and the American Statistical Association is $10.00 a

year. The annual subscription rate for non-members is $15.00 a year.

Inquiries should be addressed to: TECHNOMETRICS, Post Office Box 587,

Benjamin Franklin Station, Washington, DC 20044.



FACULTY POSITIONS OPEN The Department of Quantitative Analysis of Bentley College has a few full-time posi-

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The candidates must present solid evidence of effective teaching at the undergraduate, and possibly the graduate, level. They must be able and willing to teach quantitative courses at all levels. Active involvement in scientific and professional organizations, publications, and research activity are very desirable.

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Please send detailed r6sum6, photocopy of dissertation abstract, evidence of teaching effectiveness, and names, addresses, and telephone numbers of three references by April 5 to: Dr. Nikolaos G. Kondylis, Chairman, Department of Quantitative Analysis, Bentley College, Waltham, MA 02154.

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5. JUDGMENT AND DECISION PROCESSES IN APPLIED SETTINGS Edited by MARTIN F. KAPLAN and STEVEN SCHWARTZ A Volume in the ACADEMIC PRESS SERIES IN COGNITION AND PERCEPTION

Perhaps the most complete examination of important applied decision making areas using the concepts of basic decision making theory, this book provides both new directions for research and practical suggestions for practical decision making. Articles show the use of information-integration, social judgment, and expectancy theory, and multiattribute utility measure- ment to clarify applied decision making processes in such areas as mass transportation, medicine, the criminal justice system, agriculture, college admissions, conflict resolution, industry, marketing, and the military. 1977, in preparation ISBN: 0-12-397240-X

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Faculty Positions HEAD, DEPARTMENT OF SYS-

Areas of Expertise: TEMS ENGINEERING, University Operations Research and Financial of Illinois at Chicago Circle. Position

Management as applied to the field of open September, 1977. The Depart- health. ment has a full time faculty of 15 and Minimum Qualifications: offers undergraduate and graduate

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Negotiable and are dependent on qualifications and experience. The positions gree, and o dingtraecd inlre- will be filled as early as negotiations are search, and demonstrated ability In finalized. and administration. Send

Apply: resume, list of publications, and Chairman, names of three references to: Dr. Department of Health Administration Richard M. Michaels, Chairman, School of Public Health 201-H Search Committee, 925 SEO, Uni- University of North Carolina at versity of Illinois, Box 4348, Chicago, Chapel Hill, N.C. 27514 Illinois 60680. An Equal Opportun-

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dling the more realistic uncertainty situations * The theory of quantifying preferences over multiple objectives, and applications

of that theory * Mathematical complexities in later chapters, presented in such a way that you

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1EW The first unified approach to the latest material, presented so you can apply it to solve practical problems

Mupower Plmning Models MODELLING OF LONG RANGE MANPOWER IN LARGE ORGANIZATIONS A volume In the series PUBLICATIONS IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH IPORS)

By Richard C. Grinold, Operations Research Center and Graduate School of Business. University of California. Berkeley Kneale T. Marshall, Professor of Operations Research. Naval Postgraduate School.

**3 Monterey. California

_ _ ~~~~~~~A broad picture of possible trade-offs In manpower plan- * Explore regions of possible policy change ning and the mathematical models lo gauge them make * Understand the basic manpower flow process

this book essential to policy-makers concerned with * Design systems that balance the flow of manpower manpower problems In their organizations It presents the requirements and costs first unified theory of manpower flow integrating new and * Structure the manpower information system In a man-

already-pubished but scattered material and reinforces ner suitable for policy analysis and planning the theory with examples and appications-drawn Whether you are appications-oriented or a researcher mainly from universities and the armed forces-and with the book suggests which parts of It to read and In what problems By showing managers and decision-makers order to get to what you want to know And If you want

how to bald and understand the relevant mathematical only the basic results without extensions modifications models the book gives them the tools they need both to or advanced technical material the book tells you what

analyze their present manpower policies and to plan for you can safely skip For all but the most technical sec- the future ions a basic knowledge of linear algebra and statistics is

The book s planning models can be used to the only mathematics necessary * Forecast the future manpower requirements that the CONTENTS:

current inventory of personnel will satisfy Overview * Bass Concepts* Cross-Sectional Models * Longrlud- * Analyze the impact on an organization of changes In nal Models * Synthesis of Cross Sectonal and Longitudinal

such areas as promotion and retirement rules salary Models * Opimzaton Models * Data and Mode; Valdaton *

and benefits transfers in and out and rate of growth Appendix Approximating Probability Generating Functions -

* Test the rationale of present and past policy for consis- References

tency 1976 256 pages t19 50 ISBN 0-444-00190-5

Available to ORSA and TIMS members at a 25% discount

Operations Research Society of America

INFORMATION ON MEMBERSHIP 1.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..

Annual membership dues are $20.00 for Members and Associate Members and $11.00 for Students. Dues include subscriptions to OPERATIONS RE- SEARCH, ORSA/TIMS-TIMS/ORSA BULLETIN, OR/MS TODAY, and either INTERFACES or MATHEMATICS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH. (Members of both ORSA and TIMS will receive both of these publications) Half year memberships are accepted after July 1. ORSA also offers members several other publications at reduced subscription rates and the opportunity to enroll in various technical sections and special interest groups. o Please enroll me as a new member of the Operations Research Society of America at the mem-

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Publications in Operations Research Series Published under the sponsorship of the Operations Research Society of America by the following publishers ORSA members and TIMS members are entitled to a 25% discount if payment and the order is sent through the ORSA Business Office. Elsevier North-Holland NEW PUBLICATION Manpower Planning Models by Richard C. Grinold and Kneale T. Marshall. The first unified approach to the latest material, presented so you can apply it to solve practical problems. A broad picture of possible trade-offs in manpower planning and the mathematical models to gauge them make this book essential to policy makers concerned with manpower problems in their organizations. By showing managers and decision-makers how to build and understand the relevant mathematical models, the book gives them the tools they need both to analyze their present manpower policies and to plan for the future. Whether you are applications-oriented or a researcher, the book suggests which parts of it to read, and in what order, to get to what you want to know. For all but the most technical sections, a basic knowledge of linear algebra and statistics is the only mathematics necessary. Overview * Basic Concepts * Cross-Sectional Models * Longitudinal Models * Synthesis of Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Models * Optimization Models * Data and Model Valida- tion * Appendix: Approximating Probability Generating Functions * References 1976. 256 pages. List $19.50, ORSA/TIMS members $14.62

ORSA LIST & TIMS

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. PRICE MEMBERS Bellman, Richard and Smith, Charlene Paule, Simulation in Human Systems, Decision Making in Psychotherapy, 1973, 205 pages

This book illustrates certain contemporary mathematical concepts and methods applied to decision processes occurring in a human interaction system. It also provides an introduction to the powerful and versatile technique of simulation. $13.95 $10.46

Kelleher, Grace J., The Challenge to Systems Analysis: Public Policy and So- cial Change, 1970, 150 pages ............................................. $ 9.95 $ 7.46 Fishburn, Peter C., Utility Theory for Decision Making, 1970, 234 pages ....... $13.95 $10.46 Seller, III, Karl, Introduction of Systems Cost-Effectiveness, 1969, 108 pages $ 9.95 $ 7.46 Aronofsky, Julius, editor, Progress in Operations Research-Volume III: OR and the Computer, 1969, 561 pages ........................................ $18.75 $14.06 Ackoff, Russell L., editor, Progress in Operations Research-Volume 1, 1961, 505 pages ......... . ............................. $14.95 $11.21 McKean, Roland N., Efficiency in Government Through Systems Analysis, 1958, 336 pages ........ $12.50 $ 9.37

ORSA The Society is also making available to the public a selected group of publications at reduced prices. The number of copies available is limited and payment must accompany the order. No additional discounts are applicable to these publications.

LIST REDUCED Rao, Ambar G., Quantitative Theories in Advertising, 1970, 103 pages ........ $10.95 $ 6.00 Huysmans, Jan H. B., The Implementation of Operations Research: A Study of Man-Machine Simulation, 1970, 240 pages .............................. $11.95 $ 6.00 Hertz, David B. and Melese, Jacques, editors, Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, 1969, 1092 pages ..... ..... $24.95 $11.00 Fifteen Year Index to Operations Research, 1952-1967 ....... ............... $15.50 $ 5.00 Proceedings on the ORSA/TSS Urban Workshop, August 1971 ...... ........ $ 5.00 $ 2.00 Please send your check, made payable to:

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Operations Research VOLUME 25, NUMBER 2, March-April 1977

CONTENTS Preface ............................... Saul I. Gass 185 ORSA Twenty-Five Years Later ................. Philip M. Morse 186 Intuition in Mathematical Operations Research o

Bernard O. Koopman 189 National Development Planning Revisited .... Russell L. Ackoff 207 A Classified Bibliography of Research on Optimal Design and Control

of Queues Thomas B. Crabill, Donald Gross, and Michael J. Magazine 219

Individual versus Social Optimization in Exponential Congestion Systems .... Steven A. Lippman and Shaler Stidham, Jr. 233

Optimal Control of Single-Server Queuing Networks and Multi- Class M/G/1 Queues with Feedback

Dong-Wan Tcha and Stanley R. Pliska 248 Optimal Control of Discrete and Continuous Time Maintenance

Systems with Variable Service Rates .......... Wayne Winston 259 Analysis and Design of Loop Service Systems via a Diffusion Ap-

proximation ................ ........... M. J. Fischer 269 Conservation Equations and Their Application to Queuing Simula-

lations ................................... Averill M. Law 279 On a Linear Programming Technique for the Steady-State Behavior

of Some Queuing Systems ................ T. C. T. Kotiah 289 Information Theory and the Optimal Detection Search

William H. Barker II 304 Bounds on the Expectation of a Convex Function of a Random

Variable: With Applications to Stochastic Programming C. C. Huang, W. T. Ziemba, and A. Ben-Tal 315

Technical Notes

Minimizing Cost to Maintain a Steady-State Growth Rate in a Population ............................ Rodger Parker 326

Insurance Exposure and Investment Risks: A Comment on the Use of Chance-Constrained Programming ......... Yehuda Kahane 330

The One-Dimensional Generalized Lagrange Multiplier Problem Harvey J. Greenberg 338

Solving Integer Programming Problems by Aggregating Con- straints ... Kenneth E. Kendall and Stanley Zionts 346

On Intersection Cuts in Interval Integer Linear Programming A. Charnes, Daniel Granot, and Frieda Granot 352

Optimal Service Policies, Just after Idle Periods, in Two-Server Heterogeneous Queuing Systems ................. Kiran Seth 356

Some Special Cases of Stochastic Programs with Recourse Behram Hansotia 362

Errata .. Robert E. Machol and Michael Wien 364 The 1976 Lanchester Prize: Call for Nominations ................. 365



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