By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
October 21st, 2014
Back to the Future Part II
On Behalf of
The Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce
Raging Bull (1980)
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2014 Estimates*
2.4%0.3%
1.3%2.7%
5.6%7.4%
6.5%0.2%
2.7%5.1%
4.4%2.2%2.3%
3.2%0.9%
1.3%-0.2%
1.4%0.4%
0.8%1.8%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
MexicoBrazil
Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India**China
Developing AsiaRussia
Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countriesUnited States
CanadaUnited Kingdom
JapanSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
*IMF Staff Estimates
The IMF’s global and regional growth figures for 2014 are based on new purchasing power parity (PPP) weights
derived from the recently released 2011 International Comparison Program survey .
**For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market
prices.
Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database
Debt by Selected Country2014 Projected
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Indonesia
China
South Africa
Mexico
Argentina
India
Brazil
Germany
Canada
United Kingdom
France
Spain
United States
Italy
Japan
General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database
Rank Exchange Index % Change
4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 56.7%
2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 38.3%
1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.5%
6 Frankfurt SE DAX 25.5%
8 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 21.4%
12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 20.2%
5 Euronext CAC 40 18.0%
10 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 16.6%
3 London SE FTSE 100 12.0%
9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 9.6%
11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 2.9%
7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -6.8%
Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth*
Source: Yahoo! Finance
*Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.
S&P Select Sector Performance12-Month Percent Change as of October 10th, 2014
Source: Standard & Poor’s
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Energy
Telecommunication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Materials
Financials
Consumer Staples
Utilities
Information Technology
Health Care
1.0%
4.1%
7.2%
7.7%
9.4%
11.7%
13.0%
13.2%
20.5%
23.4%
12-month percent change
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 IndexMay 2008 – October 2014*
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 index depicted in orange
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-0
9S
ep-0
9N
ov-
09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10S
ep-1
0N
ov-
10Ja
n-1
1M
ar-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
l-11
Sep
-11
No
v-11
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12S
ep-1
2N
ov-
12Ja
n-1
3M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-13
Sep
-13
No
v-13
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14S
ep-1
4
S&P 500FRB Credit Reserve$Trillions
*Through 10/8/2014
Second Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share
Symbol Q2 2013 Q2 2014
Estimated Q2 2014
Reported Surprise Symbol Q2 2013
Q2 2014 Estimated
Q2 2014 Reported
Surprise
CMG $2.82 $3.09 $3.50 $0.41 BTU $0.33 -$0.29 -$0.28 $0.01
COF $1.87 $1.82 $2.04 $0.22 DD $1.28 $1.17 $1.17 $0.00
UTX $1.70 $1.71 $1.84 $0.13 GE $0.36 $0.39 $0.39 $0.00
FCX $0.22 $0.51 $0.58 $0.07 MMM $1.71 $1.91 $1.91 $0.00
COH $0.89 $0.53 $0.59 $0.06 AMD -$0.09 $0.03 $0.02 -$0.01
TXN $0.58 $0.59 $0.62 $0.03 YHOO $0.35 $0.38 $0.37 -$0.01
DOW $0.64 $0.72 $0.74 $0.02 STI $0.68 $0.76 $0.72 -$0.04
HON $1.28 $1.36 $1.38 $0.02 UPS $1.13 $1.25 $1.21 -$0.04
VFC $0.32 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 MCD $1.38 $1.44 $1.40 -$0.04
XRX $0.27 $0.26 $0.27 $0.01 MSFT $0.66 $0.60 $0.55 -$0.05
VZ $0.73 $0.90 $0.91 $0.01 CAT $1.45 $1.53 $1.69 -$0.16
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Jobs -0.7%
Incomes 2.7%
Profits 49.2%
Housing -10.5%
Stocks 25.9%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Per
cen
t ch
ange
sin
ce e
nd
of
200
7
Top Gun (1986)
Profits out of the Danger Zone
Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance
The Golden Child (1986)Highest Earning Hedge Fund Managers, 2013
Source: Forbes
Manager Hedge Fund Firm 2013 Earnings Net Return
George Soros Soros Fund Management $4 billion 22%
David Tepper Appaloosa Management $3.5 billion 42%
Steve Cohen SAC Capital Advisors $2.3 billion 19%
John Paulson Paulson Enhanced $1.9 billion 26%
Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises $1.7 billion 31%
James Simons Renaissance Technologies $1.1 billion 18%
Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates $900 million 5.25%
Ken Griffin Citadel $900 million 19.25%
Larry Robbins Glenview Capital $750 million 43%
Leon Cooperman Omega $730 million 25%
2013 S&P 500: +29.6%
Airplane! (1980)David Tepper’s Move against the Market
Source: Forbes, Bloomberg
2013 Appaloosa Management: +$3.5 billion (42%)
“Our big play versus the market is airlines. That’s a big play. We’re the biggest holder of all these different airlines. No hedge fund owned as many airlines as we did and not too many people did. Delta, UAL, LCC, US Air, AMR. We owned big percentages in all those stocks. And you know what, they did pretty good… pretty freaking good.” -David Tepper
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers*2000Q2 through 2014Q2
*SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U)Wage and salary workers ages 16+
$320
$325
$330
$335
$340
$345
$350
200
0Q
2
200
0Q
4
200
1Q2
200
1Q4
200
2Q2
200
2Q4
200
3Q2
200
3Q4
200
4Q
2
200
4Q
4
200
5Q2
200
5Q4
200
6Q
2
200
6Q
4
200
7Q2
200
7Q4
200
8Q
2
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
2
200
9Q
4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2014Q2
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
fro
m P
rece
din
g P
eri
od
(S
AA
R)
2014Q2: +4.6%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q2 – 2014Q2
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
PersonalConsumption
GovernmentSpending
Net Exports Gross Investment
1.2
0.0
-0.5
1.01.4
0.0
0.6
2.52.5
-0.7
1.1
0.60.8
-0.2
-1.7
-1.1
1.8
0.3
-0.3
2.9
SA
AR
(%
)
Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14
Ordinary People (1980)
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600Ja
n-0
2M
ay-0
2S
ep-0
2Ja
n-0
3M
ay-0
3S
ep-0
3Ja
n-0
4M
ay-0
4S
ep-0
4Ja
n-0
5M
ay-0
5S
ep-0
5Ja
n-0
6M
ay-0
6S
ep-0
6Ja
n-0
7M
ay-0
7S
ep-0
7Ja
n-0
8M
ay-0
8S
ep-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ay-0
9S
ep-0
9Ja
n-1
0M
ay-1
0S
ep-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ay-1
1S
ep-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ay-1
2S
ep-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ay-1
3S
ep-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ay-1
4S
ep-1
4
Th
ou
san
ds
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
September 2014: +248K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through September 2014
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorSeptember 2013 v. September 2014
10
47
47
52
89
161
230
372
399
515
713
0 200 400 600 800
Information
Other Services
Government
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,635K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Virginia Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)August 2013 v. August 2014Absolute Change
-11,200
-2,500
-1,400
-700
200
300
2,900
4,500
5,000
5,600
15,900
-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Government
Information
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Education & Health Services
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
VA Total:
+18.6K; +0.5%
US Total (SA):
+2,551K; +1.9%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series VA lost 38,298 jobs between August 2013 and August 2014.
Northern VA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)August 2013 v. August 2014Absolute Change
-2,600
-2,100
-700
-600
600
1,100
1,800
2,300
3,000
3,100
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000
Professional and business services
Information
Manufacturing
Education and health services
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Financial activities
Other services
Leisure and hospitality
Government
Mining, logging, and construction
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Northern VA Total:
+5.9K +0.4%
VA Total (SA):
+18.6K; +0.5%
US Total (SA):
+2,551K; +1.9%
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.9%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2013 v. August 2014 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.4 18 MISSOURI 1.8 35 KANSAS 0.8
2 NEVADA 3.5 18 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.8 35 PENNSYLVANIA 0.8
2 TEXAS 3.5 20 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 37 ILLINOIS 0.7
2 UTAH 3.5 20 MINNESOTA 1.6 37 MICHIGAN 0.7
5 FLORIDA 2.8 20 WISCONSIN 1.6 37 MISSISSIPPI 0.7
6 DELAWARE 2.7 23 ARKANSAS 1.5 37 NEW MEXICO 0.7
6 OREGON 2.7 23 LOUISIANA 1.5 37 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.7
8 NORTH CAROLINA 2.4 25 KENTUCKY 1.3 42 NEBRASKA 0.6
9 COLORADO 2.3 25 MAINE 1.3 43 IDAHO 0.5
10 GEORGIA 2.2 27 IOWA 1.2 43 VIRGINIA 0.5
11 CALIFORNIA 2.1 27 NEW YORK 1.2 45 MARYLAND 0.4
11 TENNESSEE 2.1 27 RHODE ISLAND 1.2 45 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.4
11 WASHINGTON 2.1 27 WYOMING 1.2 45 VERMONT 0.4
14 ARIZONA 2.0 31 ALABAMA 1.1 48 CONNECTICUT 0.3
14 INDIANA 2.0 31 HAWAII 1.1 48 OHIO 0.3
14 OKLAHOMA 2.0 31 WEST VIRGINIA 1.1 50 NEW JERSEY 0.1
17 MONTANA 1.9 34 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.0 51 ALASKA -0.8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.1%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) August 2014RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.8 17 VIRGINIA 5.6 33 WEST VIRGINIA 6.6
2 NEBRASKA 3.6 17 WASHINGTON 5.6 36 ILLINOIS 6.7
2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.6 17 WISCONSIN 5.6 36 NEW MEXICO 6.7
2 UTAH 3.6 21 OHIO 5.7 38 ALASKA 6.8
5 VERMONT 4.1 22 INDIANA 5.8 38 NORTH CAROLINA 6.8
6 HAWAII 4.3 22 LOUISIANA 5.8 40 ALABAMA 6.9
6 MINNESOTA 4.3 22 MASSACHUSETTS 5.8 41 ARIZONA 7.1
8 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.4 22 PENNSYLVANIA 5.8 41 KENTUCKY 7.1
9 IOWA 4.5 26 ARKANSAS 6.3 43 OREGON 7.2
10 WYOMING 4.6 26 FLORIDA 6.3 44 CALIFORNIA 7.4
11 IDAHO 4.7 26 MISSOURI 6.3 44 MICHIGAN 7.4
11 MONTANA 4.7 29 MARYLAND 6.4 44 TENNESSEE 7.4
11 OKLAHOMA 4.7 29 NEW YORK 6.4 47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.6
14 KANSAS 4.9 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.4 47 NEVADA 7.6
15 COLORADO 5.1 32 DELAWARE 6.5 49 RHODE ISLAND 7.7
16 TEXAS 5.3 33 CONNECTICUT 6.6 50 MISSISSIPPI 7.9
17 MAINE 5.6 33 NEW JERSEY 6.6 51 GEORGIA 8.1Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)August 2014
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.8 9
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3
2Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 12
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6
3Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 12
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.6
3San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 14
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7
5Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 5.5 15
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8
5Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 16
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0
7Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 17
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.7
8San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.9
9Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 19
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.0
9New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3 20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Loudoun County Unemployment RateAugust 2000 - August 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
August-144.6%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Au
g-0
0
Feb
-01
Au
g-0
1
Feb
-02
Au
g-0
2
Feb
-03
Au
g-0
3
Feb
-04
Au
g-0
4
Feb
-05
Au
g-0
5
Feb
-06
Au
g-0
6
Feb
-07
Au
g-0
7
Feb
-08
Au
g-0
8
Feb
-09
Au
g-0
9
Feb
-10
Au
g-1
0
Feb
-11
Au
g-1
1
Feb
-12
Au
g-1
2
Feb
-13
Au
g-1
3
Feb
-14
Au
g-1
4
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Loudoun County EmploymentAugust 2000 - August 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug. 2013 v. Aug. 2015+1,584
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000A
ug
-00
Feb
-01
Au
g-0
1
Feb
-02
Au
g-0
2
Feb
-03
Au
g-0
3
Feb
-04
Au
g-0
4
Feb
-05
Au
g-0
5
Feb
-06
Au
g-0
6
Feb
-07
Au
g-0
7
Feb
-08
Au
g-0
8
Feb
-09
Au
g-0
9
Feb
-10
Au
g-1
0
Feb
-11
Au
g-1
1
Feb
-12
Au
g-1
2
Feb
-13
Au
g-1
3
Feb
-14
Au
g-1
4
12-M
on
th N
et
Ch
an
ge
Field of Dreams (1989)
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through October 2014*
Source: Freddie Mac
3.18%
3.97%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Feb
-95
Jul-
95
Dec
-95
May
-96
Oct
-96
Mar
-97
Au
g-9
7Ja
n-9
8Ju
n-9
8N
ov-
98
Ap
r-9
9S
ep-9
9F
eb-0
0Ju
l-0
0D
ec-0
0M
ay-0
1O
ct-0
1M
ar-0
2A
ug
-02
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3A
pr-
04
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7Ja
n-0
8Ju
n-0
8N
ov-
08
Ap
r-0
9S
ep-0
9F
eb-1
0Ju
l-10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2Ja
n-1
3Ju
n-1
3N
ov-
13A
pr-
14S
ep-1
4
Rat
e
15-yr 30-yr
*Week ending 10/16/2014
U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through August 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
August 2014504K
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through September 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
-99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan
-00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan
-01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan
-02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan
-03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
1 Unit 5 units or more
September 2014:1 Unit: 646K5 Units or more: 353K
U.S. Housing Building PermitsJanuary 1999 through September 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan
-99
May
-99
Sep
-99
Jan
-00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Jan
-01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Jan
-02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Jan
-03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Th
ou
san
ds,
SA
AR
1 Unit 5 units or more
September 2014:1 Unit: 624K5 Units or more: 369K
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
3.8% 3.8% 4.0%
5.7%6.7% 6.7% 6.8%
7.4%8.4%
9.0%
10.3%11.0%
12.8%
12-M
on
th %
Ch
ange
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros July 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence
Loudoun County Luxury Home Sales ($1 Million+)2000 - 2013
1731 31 41
119
337
257
186
8250 55
68 76 86
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Monthly Sales of Luxury HomesSeptember 2013: 6September 2014: 10
Loudoun County Housing Unit SalesJanuary 2001 through September 2014
Source: Northern Virginia Association of Realtors
September-14-8.9%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Ja
n-0
1M
ay-0
1S
ep-0
1Ja
n-0
2M
ay-0
2S
ep-0
2Ja
n-0
3M
ay-0
3S
ep-0
3Ja
n-0
4M
ay-0
4S
ep-0
4Ja
n-0
5M
ay-0
5S
ep-0
5Ja
n-0
6M
ay-0
6S
ep-0
6Ja
n-0
7M
ay-0
7S
ep-0
7Ja
n-0
8M
ay-0
8S
ep-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ay-0
9S
ep-0
9Ja
n-1
0M
ay-1
0S
ep-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ay-1
1S
ep-1
1Ja
n-1
2M
ay-1
2S
ep-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ay-1
3S
ep-1
3Ja
n-1
4M
ay-1
4S
ep-1
4
Ye
ar-
ove
r-ye
ar
% c
ha
ng
e
Trend Line
*Figures include sales of attached, detached, and condos
The Shining (1980)
-2.5%
0.3%
0.6%
2.2%
2.4%
2.7%
2.7%
3.4%
5.4%
5.8%
6.0%
7.1%
9.5%
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0%
Gasoline Stations
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food & Beverage Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Internet, etc. Retailers
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business September 2013 v. September 2014*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
*September 2014 advanced estimate
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through August 2014
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%A
ug
-07
No
v-0
7
Feb
-08
May
-08
Au
g-0
8
No
v-0
8
Feb
-09
May
-09
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
9
Feb
-10
May
-10
Au
g-1
0
No
v-10
Feb
-11
May
-11
Au
g-1
1
No
v-11
Feb
-12
May
-12
Au
g-1
2
No
v-12
Feb
-13
May
-13
Au
g-1
3
No
v-13
Feb
-14
May
-14
Au
g-1
4
On
e-m
on
th P
erc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
August 2014 = 103.8 where 2004=100
Coming to America (1988)
• Economy gained momentum over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos;
• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and
• Regions with rapid population growth and/or significant import/export activity, industrial output and energy production will lead the way –Loudoun destined to be an outperformer, but near-term has been challenging.
Thank You
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