| Date post: | 22-May-2015 |
| Category: |
Technology |
| Upload: | sue-rudd |
| View: | 570 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
Economics of Small Cells and Backhaul
Stream: Future Communications Infrastructure Focus
Broadband World Forum - Content Hub 2
October 18th. 2012
Presented by:
Sue Rudd Director Service Provider Strategies
email: [email protected]
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Outline
• Why Operators should Deploy Small cells: Traffic Capacity
3G Life Extension
• How will Small cells Roll Out? Public Femto, Pico, Metro..
• How will Small Cells change Backhaul?
• How do we Resolve other Challenges created for Backhaul by Small Cells?
• How much Backhaul is Required?
• Summary: Small Cells offer a Significant Market Opportunity ….but create Backhaul Challenges
October 2012
2
October 2012
3
Why Operators should Deploy Small Cells: Mobile Data Traffic Explosion
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Pe
taB
yte
s Tr
affi
c Th
rou
ghp
ut
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mobile Data Traffic Explosion
M East/Africa
Asia-Pacific
C/L America
N America
C/E Europe
W Europe
Asia Pacific will be by far the largest Mobile Broadband Data Market with
North America & Western Europe virtually tied in 2017
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
October 2012
4
Why Operators should Deploy Small Cells: Solving the Capacity Crunch
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
Small Cells Solve the Capacity Crunch…..
Sources: Alcatel Lucent, Farpoint Group and Strategy Analytics estimates
Source Of Efficiency Times Capacity Grows
New Spectrum ~2 Times
Spectral Efficiency ~1.5 Times
TOTAL ~3 times (2*1.5)
Adding Small Cells & Spatial Re-Use = 3 to 5 times Capacity increase
= 9 - 15 Times (3 *3 – 5)
October 2012
5
Why Operators should Deploy Small Cells: 3G Life Extension – Tri-Mode will Dominate + WiFi
Global Penetration of CDMA, 3G (UMTS, HSPA & HSPA+ and LTE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pe
rce
nt
Pe
ne
trat
ion
of
Glo
bal
Po
pu
lati
on
CDMA Penetration %
LTE Penetration %
UMTS/HSPA/ HSPA+ Penetration %
Global Penetration by Technology Generation – CDMA, 3G & LTE
Legacy Technologies will co-exist for many years
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
October 2012
6
How will Small Cells Roll Out? Small Cell Shipments By Region
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Smal
l Ce
ll S
hip
me
nts
00
0s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Small Cell Shipments By Region through 2017
M East/Africa
Asia-Pacific
C/L America
N America
C/E Europe
W Europe
Asia Pacific will be by far the largest market for small Cells
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
September 2012 7
How will Small Cells Roll Out? Public Femto, Pico, Metro..Small Cell Shipments
Macro, Metro, Pico and Public Femto Cellls 000s
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mac
ro &
Me
tro
Ce
lls
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 Pico
and
Pu
blic Fe
mto
Ce
lls
Macro Cells
Metro Cells
Pico Cells
PublicFemto Cells
Public Femto Cells dominate initially but are overtaken by Pico Cells (Right Axis) By 2014 Metro Cell Shipment Volume will overtake Macro Cells (Left Axis)
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
September 2012 8
Seven Core Use Cases for Small Cells
Note: Degree of Shading indicates Relative Importance
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
‘Small Cell Market Outlook 2012 - 2017 - Seven Market Opportunities Quantified’
Location/Area Characteristics Functions Required for Small cell
Seven Use Cases Add Capacity w. Thru’put
Complete Coverage
Ensure Quality of Service(QoS)
Integrate WiFi Load Mgt.
1. Urban Low Speed Hot Zone
2. High Mobility Hot Zone
3. Suburban Neighborhood
4. Outdoor Sporadic Use Locations
5. Indoor Public Spaces
6. Range Extension for Macro Cells
7. Offload to Fixed/WiFi
How will Small Cells change Backhaul? New Topology Part 1
New Topologies Require more connections Per Cell Site
October 2012
9
Evolution from Hub ….. to Hub and Spoke ……to Tree and Branch…..
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
How will Small Cells change Backhaul? New Topology Part 2
New Topologies Require More Connections for Redundant Cell Site Connectivity and Real Time Redirect/ Offload
October 2012
10
Evolution to Ring and Partial Mesh
How do we Resolve other Challenges created for Backhaul by Small Cells?
…’Smart Backhaul’, QoS, Synch., C-RAN, OAM, SON & SDN
• Small cells need more than new Partial Mesh Architecture for Backhaul Connectivity..
• Small Cells Require:
High Performance Resilient Multi-path Links
QoS for very high Signaling & Network Performance (S1 Links , Diameter etc.)
Synchronization for Packet Ethernet connected sites
Intelligent Pro-active Network Management with Tools for Network Operations Support
Self-Organizing Networks (SON) to handle increasing Complexity
October 2012
11 Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
October 2012
12
How much Investment in Backhaul is Required? Forecast by Region based on Traffic Demand & Estimated $/GB of Backhaul
Required Backhaul Expenditures to meet Traffic Demand
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
An
nu
al $
00
0s
for
Bac
khau
l
M East/Africa
Asia-Pacific
C/L America
N America
C/E Europe
W Europe
By 2017 Traffic Growth Requires over $35 Billion in Backhaul
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
September 2012 13
Summary: Small Cells offer a Significant Market Opportunity ….but create Backhaul Challenges
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
• Small cells will help solve the Capacity Crunch and will add capacity to legacy 2.5G/3G Macro Cells Public Femto cells will play a key role for a few years Pico cells with more ‘intelligence’ and remote configurability
take off Metro Cells will complement Macro Cells in Integrated
Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets)
• BUT …Small cells are not necessarily cheaper
• AND create Backhaul Challenges that Require: High Performance Signaling Network QoS Network Management Partial Mesh Architectures ….
Separate Report shows it is worthwhile to increase Expenditures for Backhaul
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
September 2012 14
Small Cell and WiFi Reports from Strategy Analytics
Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless Operator Strategies
Below are selected Reports that you may find useful.
Complimentary Executive Summaries Executive Summary: Too Good to be True? Small Cells Solve the Capacity Crunch and Improve Service
WiFi Hotspots will be Small Cells in Mobile Broadband Networks by 2015
Full Small Cells Reports and Forecasts Small Cell Economics - Key to 3G Profitability
and
Small Cell Market Outlook 2012 - 2017 - Seven Market Opportunities Quantified
and
Small Cell Market Outlook 2012 - 2017 - Forecasts By Region and Cell Type
Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2012
Contact Information
www.strategyanalytics.com
Sue Rudd Director Service Provider Analysis
October 2012 [email protected]
15
