Date post: | 15-Apr-2017 |
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The Bullwhip effect By Smita Sharma
What is Bullwhip effect?
What is Bullwhip effect?
The Bullwhip effect is an observed phenomenon in forecast driven distribution channels. It refers to larger and larger swing in inventory in response to changes in customer demand, as one looks at firms further back in the supply chain of the product. The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. Since the oscillating demand magnification upstream of a supply chain is reminiscent of a cracking whip, it became known as the bullwhip effect.
The Bullwhip effect.
Supply Chain in Equilibrium
Customer demand forecast = 10 units
Products & Services
Information
Cash
Key: = Inventory Levels
10 Units 10 Units 10 Units
10 Units 10 UnitsSuppliers Producers Distributors Retailers
Products & Services
Products & Services
10 Units
Retailers are selling product at a constant rate and price. Firms along the supply chain are able to set their inventory to meet demand.
Supply chain disruptedCustomer Demand forecast = 20 units
Key: = Inventory Levels
160 Units 80 Units 40 Units
SuppliersProducers
DistributorsRetailers
Products & Services
Products & Services
Products & Services
Information Flow
Cash Flow
80 Units 40 Units 20 Units
As demand increases, the distributor decides to accommodate the forecasted demand and increase inventory to buffer against unforeseen problems in demand. Each step along the supply chain increases their inventory (double in this example) to accommodate demand fluctuations. The top of the supply chain receives the harshest impact of the whip effect.
Doesn’t place order
to Wholesaler
6 Beer Bottles/Da
y
Sufficient
Stock at
Retailer
Doesn’t place
order to manufactu
re
Factory reduces
Production
Quantity
Doesn’t buy Raw Material
from Supplier
Finished Goods Stock
Reduces
Stock reduces
Sufficient stock to
meet normal Demand Demand
Increases to 40
Bottles/day
Raw Material
Stock vanishes
40 Bottles Order
Stock
Out
Places Huge
Order to wholesal
er
Stock
Out
Places Huge
Order to Manufact
urer
Stock
Out
Places Huge
Order to Supplier
Stock
Out
Raw Materi
al Suppli
ed
Production Starts
Waiting for Replenishmen
t
NOSTOC
K
Finished Goods Inventory piled
up
Replenishment occurs
Full Store
Full Warehous
e
Replenishment occurs
Demand returns to 6 Bottles/day
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Material Flow
Order Flow
Demand Change
by(+/-)10%
Order = (+/-) 20%
Change byDemand = (+/-)
10%Forecast = (+/-)
10%
Order = (+/-)40% Change by
Demand = (+/-) 20%
Forecast = (+/-) 20%
Order = (+/-) 80%
Change byDemand = (+/-)
40%Forecast = (+/-)
40%HUGE
Change in
RawMaterial Supply
Down Stream Order Amplification
Impact of bullwhip effect
Excess Inventory Unnecessary costs Insufficient or excess capacities Expedited transportation Poor customer service Poor forecast accuracy
Impact of Bullwhip effect
Poor quality Lengthened and inaccurate lead time Loss of sales
Causes of Bullwhip effect
Because customer demand is rarely perfectly stable, businesses must forecast demand to properly position inventory and other resources. Forecasts are based on statistics, and they are rarely perfectly accurate. Because forecast errors are given, companies often carry an inventory buffer called "safety stock”Moving up the supply chain from end-consumer to raw materials supplier, each supply chain participant has greater observed variation in demand and thus greater need for safety stock.
Causes of Bullwhip effect
Behavioral causes Misuse of base-stock policies Misperceptions of feedback and time delays Panic ordering reactions after unmet demand Perceived risk of other players' bounded rationality
Causes of Bullwhip effect
Operational causes Dependent demand processing
Forecast errors Adjustment of inventory control parameters with
each demand observation
Lead time variability (forecast error during replenishment lead time)
Causes of Bullwhip effect
Lot-sizing/order synchronization Consolidation of demands Transaction motive Quantity discount
Trade promotion and forward buying
Causes of Bullwhip effect
Anticipation of shortages Allocation rule of suppliers Shortage gaming Lean and JIT style management of inventories and a
chase production strategy
How to cope up with Bullwhipeffect
Improve communication along the supply chain Improve sources of forecast data Share Information establish a demand-driven supply chain which reacts to actual
customer orders Break order batches Stabilize prices Eliminate gaming in shortage situations
Improve communication along the supply chain
Retailers notifying firms upstream of sales promotions will help clarify demand signals from consumers
Improved information will improve demand forecasts upstream in the supply chain
Improve sources of forecast data
Firms can use data from Point of Sale computer systems to derive data from forecasting
Firms along the supply chain can use EDI systems to retrieve data on items that are legitimately being purchased by customers
Information sharing
Lack of visibility = rise in costs. Encourage information sharing among your partners. Be a catalyst and good example of information sharing. Work with suppliers on releasing lead times and improving on time delivery.
establish a demand-driven supply chain which reacts to actual
customer orders
In manufacturing, this concept is called kanban. This model has been successfully implemented in Wal-Mart's distribution system. Individual Wal-Mart stores transmit point-of-sale (POS) data from the cash register back to corporate headquarters several times a day. This demand information is used to queue shipments from the Wal-Mart distribution center to the store and from the supplier to the Wal-Mart distribution center. The result is near-perfect visibility of customer demand and inventory movement throughout the supply chain. Better information leads to better inventory positioning and lower costs throughout the supply chain.
Break order batches
Use EDI Exchange to reduce the cost of placing orders. Place orders more frequently. Ship assortments of products in a shipload to counter high transportation costs or use a third party logistics company to handle shipping.
Stabilize prices
Manufacturers reduce the frequency and level of wholesale price discounting to keep customers from stockpiling
Work to develop consistent pricing of products to avoid demand fluctuations from the sale of inexpensive products.
Eliminate shortage gaming
Rationing and Shortage Gaming When demand exceeds supply, manufacture ration supplies
to distributors This results in distributors ordering more than they need, to
fulfill the demand When the market cools down, orders start getting cancelled;
excess inventory piles up, leading to the bullwhip effect Real demand is never known in such market conditions. Most commonly affected is the IT hardware & telecom
industry
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