C. Sequestration zones& relative costs

Lake Nyos, Cameroon CO2 “burp”

formed 400 yr ago in volcanic fieldCO2 dissolved to heavy layer at bottomRainwater accumulated, sank, caused overturn,

CO2 displaced O2 and suffocated 1700 people instantly

Any CCS must be stabilized!

Enhanced Oil Recovery w/ CO2

Improved Mobility Control in CO2

Enhanced Oil Recovery using SPI Gels (Impact Technologies, LLC)

Engineered Nanoparticle-Stabilized CO2

Foams to Improve Volumetric Sweep of CO2 EOR Processes (U. Texas - Austin)

Novel CO2

Foam Concepts and Injection Schemes for Improving CO2

Sweep Efficiency in Sandstone and Carbonate Hydrocarbon Formations (U. Texas - Austin)

Nanoparticle-Stabilized CO2 Foam for CO2-EOR Application (NM Institute of Mining & Technology)

Has been used for 40+ yrs

Currently in 5% US oil extraction

Main challenge is to “thicken” CO2 for controlled flow & reliable long-term CCS

Problem: limited land storage volume

Deep sea, basaltic rock? ||acidificationERoEI of sequestration?

e.g. Australia

CCS doesn’t scale!~30% efficiency loss, so 1.3x more coal burned

Futuregen 2 demo gets 90% of 200 MW plant, 40% efficiency hit, in 2017 (15 yrs after first planned), 175 mi to store 1 MT CO2/yr

To bury 20% of world’s CO2 emissions, neednew worldwide infrastructure 1.7x volume handled

now by oil industry for CO2 absorption/compression/transport/storage

took decades and $60 trillion to build!Needs billions of $ federal R&DWould accelerate depletion so coal would last only

a few decadesNeed to monitor CO2 cemeteries for millennia

Why not “just" reduce emissions??

Greenhouse gases & peak oilIPCC

“Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess reserves in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually mineable reserves.”

Natl Academy of Sciences

REVISION IS NOT INCORPORATED IN IPCC scenarios!

Scenario report SRES (2000) references 1995 and 1998 surveys IPCC chose to use additional recoverable reserves and they also chose

1998 (3,368Gt) instead of 1995 (680Gt) (Deffeyes’ Law) Additional recoverable reserves are now 1/19 that in 1998 4th Assessment report notes the 2004 survey results, and includes

5,000Gt as a “possible resource” with no reference

Where Does IPCC Get Its Coal Numbers?World Energy Council survey

Proved recoverable reserves, Gt

Additional recoverable reserves, Gt

1992 1,039 702

1995 1,032 680

1998 984 3,368

2001 984 409

2004 909 449

2007 847 180

Routledge2010

Carbon-Dioxide Emissions

Carbon coefficients for oil, gas, & coal from IPCC 4th Assessment Projection is less than any IPCC scenario

no tar sands, hydrates, or unconventional gas

Routledge2010

Problem: CO2 lingers in atmosphere.What we’ve put in already will increase T for 10,000 yrs.

Reason: CO2 reactants vary throughoutatmosphere, i.e. CO2 destruction isdispersed.

CO2 rise boosts T for ~1000 yrs

Routledge2010

(wet) shale oil vs (dry) oil shale Oil/gas mix in “tight”

reservoir, mobilized by fracking liquids, self-pressurized

Growing contribution to US oil production Will be applied worldwide

ERoEI ~ 5-6

Kerogen (not yet oil) + 10% bitumen, electric heaters melt it out of impermeable rock ERoEI <2? ~9% energy density of

crude oil (~baked potato) “Best” Green River (CO,

UT, WY), huge reserve

Canadian “bitumen” (tar) sandsMix of sand grains, thin water layer (critical!) & bitumenDissolves in solvents and flows when heated to ~170 oCERoEI ~5-6 for mining, “smaller” for in-situ

“Critical ingredients of an eventual success are straightforward:

beginning the quest immediately, progressing from small steps to grander solutions, persevering for not just years but for

generations --- and always keeping in mind that our blunders may accelerate the demise of modern, high-energy civilization, while our

successes may extend its lifespan for centuries, perhaps even for millennia.”

Physicist V. Smil