IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme
CCS in different regions
Monica Garcia, Tim Dixon, Keith Burnard, Jasmin KemperIEAGHG
What We Are:
Part of the IEA ETN since 1991
33 Members from 15 countries plus OPEC, EU and CIAB
Greenhouse Gas R&D TCP
Independent Technical Organisation• We don’t define policy • We are not advocates
Members set strategic direction and technical programme
IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG)
• A collaborative international research programme founded in 1991
• Aim: To provide information on the role that technology can play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from use of fossil fuels.
• Focus is on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)
• Producing information that is:Objective, trustworthy, independentPolicy relevant but NOT policy prescriptiveReviewed by external Expert Reviewers
IEAGHG • Flagship activities:
• Technical Studies >300 reports published on all aspects of CCS
• International Research Networks
• GHGT conferences• PCC conferences
• Risk Assessment/Management• Monitoring • Modelling• Environmental Research• Social Research• Oxy-combustion • Solid Looping
IEAGHG• Other activities include:
• International CCS Summer Schools: 2017 – July, Regina, Canada
• Peer reviews, eg US DOE, US EPA; CO2CRC
• Active in international regulatory developments – UNFCCC, London Convention, ISO TC265
• Collaborations with IEA, CSLF, CCSA, EU ZEP and others
Regular briefing on CCS status:ROAD permit assessment;Offshore workshop
IEAGHG Technical reports to CSLF Technical Group
CCS Side Events at COP20, COP21, COP-22
Input to WPFF
ISO Technical Committee on CCS, TC-2654 draft standards, 2 technical reports –IEAGHG input
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissionsEnergy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%24% 21% 14% 6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture, forests and
other land usesIndustry Transport
Building Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM
PARIS AGREEMENT
PARIS AGREEMENT (2015): WHY
CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE “COMMON RESPONSABILITIES” “NEED OF EFFECTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE RESPONSE TO (…)
CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BASIS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE”
“SPECIFIC NEEDS” “LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES”
Image from NASA
Article 2“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”
PARIS AGREEMENT: OBJECTIVE
ADAPTATION FAIRNESS ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT
While the Paris Agreement lays out essential goals, the ability to achieve them will depend on the rules, guidelines and processes adopted by each party
PARIS AGREEMENT: HOW
THIS IS THE CHALLENGE:
IMPLEMENTATION
We know enough about climate
changeNo specific goals Triumph of
diplomacy
It is possible to push countries to cut down in much
less time
"Society” will not do anything if the government does
not FORCE
HIGHLY CRITIZED
CCS AND PARIS AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT SPECIFIC PATHWAY TO
FULFIL THE PARIS AGREEMENT OBJECTIVES, THIS IS A NEW FRAMEWORK THAT PROVES THE NEED OF CCSCCS IS THE ONLY TECHNOLOGY TO REDUCE
EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS (POWER GENERATION & INDUSTRILAL PROCESSES). ONLY TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE FOR INDUSTRYNOT ONLY CCS, BUT BIO-CCS: MOST ADVANCED ONE
TO DELIVER NEGATIVE EMISSIONS2C ACHIEVEMENT (OVERALL “WELL BELLOW”: $3.5
TRILLIONS CHEAPER THAN WITHOUT CCS
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA ETP: CCS plays a key role in 2°C
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
Renewables 32%
CCS 12%
Power generation efficiencyand fuel switching 1%
End-use fuel switching 10%
End-use efficiency 38%
Nuclear 7%
6DS
2DS
Global CO2 reductions by technology area, 2013-2050
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: 94Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2DS
From 50Mt in 2020 to 6Gt in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through 2050
52Gt 56% power 29Gt 31% process industries 13Gt 14% gas processing and biofuel production
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
Other
Gas processing
Biofuels
Chemicals
Cement
Iron and steel
Biomass power
Gas-fired power
Coal-fired power
CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS
COP-21 – Paris Agreement
• Article 3 and Article 4 – ‘Mitigation’ • via (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• Global peak of emissions asap, rapid reductions thereafter to achieve balance between emissions and sinks in second half of century
• Developed countries to lead, Developing countries to enhance efforts over time. Reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances
• NDCs to be updated very 5 years to represent a progression (from 2020) (current INDCs cover from 2020 to 2025 or 2030)
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Climate Action Tracker http://climateactiontracker.org/global/173/CAT-Emissions-Gaps.html
• 187 INDCs submitted• 94% global emissions• New trajectory to ~ 2.7C • ~ 3.6C from existing policies
• CCS in 10 INDCs Bahrain MalawiCanada NorwayChina Saudi ArabiaEgypt South AfricaIran UAE
(and EU and USA)
Global CCS Update
Very Active region
Active region
R&D/Pilots
Active region
Developing Interest
Commercial-scale Application of CCS (to date)
1996
Sleipner 1Mt/y CO2
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Weyburn2.5 Mt/y CO2
Snohvit 0.7Mt/y CO2
2010 2012 2014 20162018
In-Salah1.2 Mt/y CO2
160km sub sea pipeline350km overland
pipeline
2014 Worlds first integrated coal fired power plant with CCS• SaskPower’s Boundary
Dam Coal PS, Saskatchewan, Canada
• 110MWe Retrofit • Shell/Cansolv Post combustion
capture technology.• EOR, and storage at Aquistore• Started operation October
2014• 2016 - International CCS
Knowledge Centre
2015
Quest, Shell CanadaH2 Refining1mt CO2 pa to DSF storage
Lula, Petrobras, BrazilOffshore gas separation and CO2-EOR
2017 Power Sector
Kemper County, USAPetra Nova, NRG Parish, USA
Refit of existing coal fired unit Operational in January 2017 MHI amine based PCC
technology 250 MW slip stream 90% capture CO2 for EOR
• Novel IGCC Technology• 524 MW lignite fired – new build• 65% of total emissions captured• Due on stream later 2017
Other New Developments • Norway
• Developing 3 industry CCS projects• Offshore Assessments
• Gulf States• Uthmaniyah CO2-EOR Demonstration Project, Saudi
Aramcoo Source Gas processing – 0.8Mt/y
• The Abu Dhabi CCS Projecto CO2 capture capacity of 0.8 Mtpa,o the world’s first iron and steel project
Precombustion CO2 capture
© OECD/IEA 2016
IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage
New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November at GHGT-13 and COP-22.
Three sections:
1. Two decades of progress
2. Towards well below 2°C: An increased role for CCS
3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace
http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/
© OECD/IEA 2016
SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE
Source: PTRC, Boundary Dam (IEAGHG Summer School 20
What the society thinks it is vs what it actually is $
Regions and CO2 availability
Source: Patricio et al. (2016) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcou.2016.10.002
Europe: 1913 MtCO2emitted in 2012 at aEuropean level by 2215stationary industrialsources
60% of the total amountof CO2 was from power.
The majority of theemissions occurred inGermany (454.6 MtCO2),United Kingdom (221.2MtCO2), Poland (192.3MtCO2) and Italy (154.1MtCO2)
Effects of Plant Location on Costs of CO2 Capture(August 2017)
IEAGHG Project Manager: Keith Burnard
Background IEAGHG publishes economic reports based on a
generic European location (The Netherlands)
• There is a greater potential for CCS in regions where coal consumption is higher
Ambient conditions
Fuel price
Selected Locations• Eastern Europe (Poland)• United States (Wisconsin and Wyoming)• Canada• South Africa• Middle East (Egypt)• India• China• Japan• South-East Asia (Indonesia)• South America (Brazil and Chile)
This study is focused in two evaluations: efficiency and economy.
Economic results (CAPEX+ OPEX) are shown in this presentation
Considerations in the studyLocation Material
Factors Labour Factors
(productivity)
Labour Factors (costs)
Contingency
The NL 1.00 1.00 1.00 10% Eastern Europe 0.92 1.28 0.40 10% USA (mid-west) 0.94 0.95 0.92 10% Canada 1.07 1.12 0.96 10% South Africa 1.03 2.24 0.70 10% Australia 1.00 1.23 1.38 10% India 0.93 2.42 0.26 15% China 0.77 2.29 0.16 15% Japan 0.91 0.98 0.68 10% South-East Asia 0.92 1.78 0.24 15% South America 0.97 1.54 0.28 20% Middle East 0.91 1.84 0.24 20%
Total Plant Cost
Operation CostsNGCC
PC• Feedstock prices, coal
and natural gas are highly dependent on location (and transportation costs if those are not locally available)
• Operation labour cost/productivity have a high impact
Conclusions• Some practice are giving costs of CCS
based on specific regions. That must be adapted to the new cases
• Availability of water and labour costs highly impacts on the cost (OPEX)
• Capital costs varies from region to region (CAPEX)
• Future study: Carbon Capture+ Storage
CCS Deployment in the Context of Regional Developments in Meeting Long-Term Climate
Change Objectives(August 2017)
IEAGHG Project Manager: Jasmin Kemper
Objectives- Characterise key countries where CCS is essential to reach mitigation efforts (circumstances and priorities)- Identify hoy international frameworks (as UNFCCC) can support CCS
• CCS has an important role in the climate change mitigation but it changes from country to country. Factors identified:
• 1. Energy Use• 2. GHG emissions• 3. CCS potential • 4. Other factors
Significant drivers to implement CCSCCS would mean a significant cut in CO2 emissions, overall for countries depending on fosil fuels (coal)
North America: Wide experience at commercial scaleEurope: Energy systems varied (case of Poland and Germany)Storage capacity varied (case of Norway)OEACD Asia-Pacific: Australia, Japan, Korea have significant potential Non-OECD Asia: China, India and others are big emmiters. Potential to apply in industry Affrica and Middle East: South Africa and Botswana are big emittersStorage capacity has high potential South America: Significant potential in Brazil, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago
Findings
• CCS projects are technically feasible at large scale and have costs that are comparable with other mitigation technologies
Specific barriers
• Policy barriers (perception of CCS). Concerns:
• - Increase of fossil fuels• - EOR: new emissions• - No investing in renewable energies• - Bio-CCS• - Increasing CO2 emissions
Specific barriers
• Economic Barriers• From Demonstration to FOAK to SOAK
Source: IEA
Specific barriers
• Technical Barriers• - Project and Process Integration• - CO2 stream composition• - CO2 flow Assusange• - Injection and storage
Specific Barriers
• Legal and regulatory Barriers• - Licencing, rights, responsibility,
property, ….• Institutional and public acceptance
barriers• - Not in my Backyard!
Specific Barriers• Technical • Economic• Institutional and regulatory• Concern on effectiveness of CCS
Findings
Developed countries will need to develop and deploy CCS using their own finance and technology
Countries developing currently will require financial and technological assistance from developed countries to deploy such large-scale, capital intensive, mitigation technologies
THIS STUDY HAS IDENTIFIED SPECIFICMECHANISMS
Conclusions• - This study has analysed the CCS
potential • - CCS is feasible at large scale and
comparable with other mitigation options• - Much work needed to define the
modalities to make CCS happen• - We are responsible of providing the
correct concept on CCS
Comment on IEAGHG view
• As IEAGHG reports are an unbiased source ofinformation, IEAGHG itself cannot take on the task ofproviding strong messages or developing policyrecommendations
Papers will be on http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/18766102
www.ghgt.info
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, OCTOBER 21-26, 2018
www.ghgt.info
Call for abstracts opens 1st September 2017
Deadline 31st December 2017
Registration opens early March 2018
Technical programme announced 1st May 2018