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100 Chapter-6 NUCLEAR, CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES AND MIXED SCENARIO 6.1 Introduction In the last chapter, it was shown that because of increasing economic activity and population, the electrical energy requirement in India will reach an estimated value of 5081 billion kWh.In the business as usual scenario, the supply will be only 1561 billion kWh, leaving a gap of 3520 billion kWh i.e. 70% of the total projected demand in the year 2045.Such a situation warrants a number of measures that are economically viable and environmentally sustainable. The best and one of the most effective ways of dealing these situations to reduce the demand through energy efficiency measures in all the sectors of economy. With the assumption of full exploitation of energy saving potential as in Table.3.1, it was seen that the demand supply gap of electrical energy can be reduced by 40% of the total requirement. For other cases, the forecasted estimates are as follows: 15% energy savings scenario save about 1340 billion kWh which is 27% of total requirement.10% energy savings case save 902 billion kWh which is 18% of total requirenment.5% energy savings case can save about 436 billion kWh energy which is about 9% of the total energy requirement. It is seen therefore that it is absolutely essential to provide additional capacities for power generation to meet the future demand. The possible options, keeping in mind the environmental aspect, are: 1. Clean coal technology 2. Nuclear technology New and advance power technologies using coal as the primary fuel are: 1. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) 2. Pressurized Fluidized-bed Combustion (PFBC) The efficiency of power conversion for IGCC is 40.6% and for PFBC only 38.6%.In contrast, the efficiency for a conventional coal power plant is only 32%, at some eastern and north- eastern states even lower.
Transcript
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Chapter-6

NUCLEAR, CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES AND MIXED SCENARIO

6.1 Introduction

In the last chapter, it was shown that because of increasing economic activity and population,

the electrical energy requirement in India will reach an estimated value of 5081 billion

kWh.In the business as usual scenario, the supply will be only 1561 billion kWh, leaving a

gap of 3520 billion kWh i.e. 70% of the total projected demand in the year 2045.Such a

situation warrants a number of measures that are economically viable and environmentally

sustainable. The best and one of the most effective ways of dealing these situations to reduce

the demand through energy efficiency measures in all the sectors of economy.

With the assumption of full exploitation of energy saving potential as in Table.3.1, it was seen

that the demand supply gap of electrical energy can be reduced by 40% of the total

requirement. For other cases, the forecasted estimates are as follows:

15% energy savings scenario save about 1340 billion kWh which is 27% of total

requirement.10% energy savings case save 902 billion kWh which is 18% of total

requirenment.5% energy savings case can save about 436 billion kWh energy which is about

9% of the total energy requirement.

It is seen therefore that it is absolutely essential to provide additional capacities for power

generation to meet the future demand. The possible options, keeping in mind the

environmental aspect, are:

1. Clean coal technology

2. Nuclear technology

New and advance power technologies using coal as the primary fuel are:

1. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)

2. Pressurized Fluidized-bed Combustion (PFBC)

The efficiency of power conversion for IGCC is 40.6% and for PFBC only 38.6%.In contrast,

the efficiency for a conventional coal power plant is only 32%, at some eastern and north-

eastern states even lower.

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Nuclear recently has become very important option because of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Before we attempt to calculate Market Allocations for clean coal technologies and Nuclear

power generation, we briefly describe these technologies in the Indian context.

6.2 Nuclear power in India

Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydro and

renewable sources of electricity.[1] As of 2008, India has 17 nuclear power plants in

operation generating 4,120 MW while 6 other are under construction and are expected to

generate an additional 3,160 MW[2].There are 10 nuclear power plants planned to genetare

20600 MW of power in coming decade ( Appendix 6.1).

Since early 1990s, Russia has been a major source of nuclear fuel to India[3]. Due to

dwindling domestic uranium reserves,[4] electricity generation from nuclear power in India

declined by 12.83% from 2006 to 2008.[5] Following a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers

Group in September 2008 which allowed it to commence international nuclear trade,[6] India

has signed nuclear deals with several other countries including France,[7] United States,[8],

and Kazakhstan[9] while the framework for similar deals with Canada and United Kingdom

are also being prepared [10-11]. In February 2009, India also signed a US$700 million deal

with Russia for the supply of 2000 tons nuclear fuel [12-13].

The Indian nuclear power industry is expected to undergo a significant expansion in the

coming years due to the passing of the Indo-US nuclear deal. This agreement will allow India

to carry out trade of nuclear fuel and technologies with other countries and significantly

enhance its power generation capacity [14] when the agreement goes through, India is

expected to generate an additional 25,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020, bringing total

estimated nuclear power generation to 45,000 MW[15].

6.2.1 Nuclear Technology Representation in MARKAL

In the Indian MARKAL model, all nuclear technologies draw on a single uranium supply

curve. The uranium supply curve is based on estimates of global uranium reserves and the

cost of extraction [16]. Because the energy density (energy per unit weight) of uranium is

high, transport costs were ignored. The nuclear fuel cycles included in Indian MARKAL were

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determined by careful consideration of the nuclear technologies most likely to be deployed in

the Indian power sector. The analysis considers the following technologies: heavy water

reactors and fast breeder reactors. Light water reactors (LWRs) operating on a once-through

fuel cycle (no reprocessing) currently have the lowest cost among commercially available

reactors. But these reactors require enriched uranium which is again rise the cost of electricity

production because in Indian context it is very costly to install uranium enrichment plant.

Heavy water reactor technology typically calls for larger plants with higher construction and

capital costs, as compared to light water reactor plants. Moreover, the large amount of heavy

water (deuterium) required to run these plants also necessitate significant infrastructure

investments. A heavy water reactor’s key advantage is its ability to use natural uranium, as

compared to enriched uranium required by light water reactors. However, the demand-supply

equilibrium is such that most analysts expect enough enriched uranium to be available at

reasonable price for at least the next half-century. As a result, heavy water reactors are

included in the present MARKAL scenario study because the time periods we have taken are

from 2005 to 2045.

Enough supplies of uranium exist to build and operate then breeder reactors may emerge as a

viable option to meet long-term energy supply goals. Breeder reactors not only fission

uranium, but also convert fertile materials (primarily U238 and Th232) into fissile products

(primarily Pu239 and U233). Breeder reactors are designed to produce more fissile material than

they fission. Breeder reactors are not an economically attractive option in the wake of

prevailing enriched uranium prices, at least in the short-term. Therefore, we did not include

breeder reactors in the Indian MARKAL.

In India, PHWR are likely to remain the dominant nuclear technology because there is

significant experience with design, construction and operation of these plants. In the present

scenario Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been considered as advanced nuclear

power technology.�AHWR is a vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and

heavy water moderated reactor using 233U-Th MOX (Mixed Oxide) and Pu-Th MOX fuel.

MOX (mixed oxide) reactors were included in the model, since it is at least plausible that

plutonium recycling would be considered in the future, despite the high costs and risks of

proliferation.

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The Indian MARKAL includes the following nuclear technologies: PHWR, and AHWR. In

the results that follow, the PHWR presented as “conventional nuclear” and the AHWR

presented as “advanced nuclear”. The techno-economic parameters of advanced nuclear

technology are given in Table 6.1 latter. Due to the long gestation period and some technical

problems it has been considered that the technology will available only after 2020.

6.3 Clean Coal technologies in India

Clean coal technology is an umbrella term used to describe technologies being developed that

aim to reduce the environmental impact of coal energy generation.[17] These include

chemically washing minerals and impurities from the coal, gasification, treating the flue gases

with steam to remove sulfur dioxide, carbon capture and storage technologies to capture the

carbon dioxide from the flue gas and dewatering lower rank coals (brown coals) to improve

the calorific quality and thus the efficiency of the conversion into electricity. Coal, which is

primarily used for the generation of electricity, is the largest domestic contributor to carbon

dioxide emissions in India.

Coal-based power has driven much of the growth in India’s power sector over the past three

decades. By 2004-05, coal and lignite accounted for about 57% of installed capacity (68 GW

out of 118 GW) and 71% of generated electricity (424 TWh out of 594 TWh) in the country;

currently, the power sector consumes about 80% of the coal produced in the country. As the

demand for electricity is expect to rise dramatically over the next decade, coal will continue to

be the dominant energy source [18]. The Central Electricity Authority has estimated that

meeting electricity demand over the next ten years will require more than doubling the

existing capacity, from about 132 GW in 2007 to about 280 GW by 2017, of which at least 80

GW of new capacity is expected to be based on coal [19]. The analysis of various clean coal

technologies suggests that commercial supercritical combustion technology is the best option

for India in the short-to-medium term. While gasification and advanced combustion

technologies will be potentially important options for the longer-term future, there are

significant issues surrounding the current relevance of these emerging technologies for India,

including uncertainties in technical and cost trajectory, suitability for Indian conditions, and

timing of India’s greenhouse-gas mitigation commitments. Given the still evolving (technical

and deployment) nature of many of the key technologies, the analysis suggests that India

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should not make rigid technology choices for the long term, but rather keep its options open

[18].

Keeping in mind the long term clean and environmentally sustainable energy supply India's

state-controlled Bharat Heavy Electricals and Andhra Pradesh Power Generation, also

government-owned, have signed an agreement to set up a 125 megawatt clean coal power

plant. The power plant will be sited in Vijaywada, the third largest city in the southern state of

Andhra Pradesh, and use integrated gasification combined cycle, or IGCC, technology. The

Bharat Heavy Electricals has been running a 6 MW pilot IGCC plant in Tamil Nadu since

1983, which is now being scaled up to commercial size. The Vijaywada plant is expected to

use high ash Indian coals as a feedstock. IGCC produces significantly less greenhouse gases

than traditional coal-fired plants and has an operating efficiency of around 40%. IGCC also

reduces water consumption by about 40 % and has lower solid waste production. The project

is scheduled for commissioning in mid-2011 [20]

6.3.1 Clean Coal Technologies Representation in MARKAL

Advanced clean coal technologies for power generation have been under development for

thirty years. These technologies are designed to generate electricity with lower emissions and

higher thermal efficiency than the conventional alternatives. More recently, the need to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions has focused developments on integration of these technologies with

those for carbon capture and storage.

Conventional technology used in coal-fired electric power generation is based on the use of

steam turbines. Advanced clean coal technologies, including PFBC and IGCC, are being

introduced at the commercial demonstration scale in near future. These technologies make it

possible to use the vast reserves of coal in the India for efficient and environmentally clean

energy production. Considering the above features of clean coal technology, two most

efficient technologies i.e. PFBC and IGCC has been taken in the present Indian MARKAL

model.

6.3.1.1Pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC)

Pressurized fluidized bed combustion is operated at a pressure of 6-16 atmospheres. In

contrast to CFBC and BFBC, where combustion takes place at atmospheric pressure, the

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boiler and cyclone of a PFBC system are placed in a pressurized chamber, so that combustion

can take place under high pressure. The underlying combustion process for the PFBC can be

based on either bubbling or circulating fluidized-bed systems, although most of PFBC

systems have been based on the bubbling-bed technology. Pressures of 12-16 bars can be

reached with temperatures in the range of 800-900 0C [21]. The high-pressure hot flue gas

from combustion process is then cleaned and expanded in a gas turbine, allowing for a

combined cycle operation. Generally, the gas turbine accounts for 20% and the steam turbine

80%, of the total electricity generation. The key advantage of PFBC is the increased

efficiency that results from both the pressurized combustion and the combined cycle

operation. The efficiency of PFBC is higher than of CFBC, and it can reach as high as 40%

[22]. Advanced PFBC (APFBC) systems add a carbonizer before the PFBC boiler to generate

fuel gas and char. The char is sent to the PFBC boiler and the fuel gas is cleaned and burned

in a topping combustor. The vitiated flue gas from the PFBC boiler and from the topping

combustor is then sent into the gas turbine for power generation. The efficiency of such

advanced systems can be as high as 47% [22]. In fact, the most advanced Karita supercritical

PFBC plant in Japan (360 MW) already has a net efficiency of 42% HHV [23].

In terms of PFBC, technology development for India has been limited to R&D activities by

BHEL till now. A small scale (6 ton/hr) PFBC testing facility was setup and operated by

BHEL R&D using a wide variety of feedstock. Using this test facility, feasibility studies for

scale-up were conducted; however, the lack of commercial gas-cleanup technology has

prevented further development of this technology [24]. It is clear that any further development

of this technology in India requires a great deal of investment and linkages with Japanese

technology developers, who the only ones are investing in any significant R&D in this area.

6.3.1.2 Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)

In the integrated gasification combined cycle technology, coal is first fed to a gasifier where it

is partially oxidized to form a raw fuel gas. The raw gas is cleaned to remove sulfur and

nitrogen compounds, particulates, and tar. The clean gas is then fired in a gas turbine to

generate electricity. The hot exhaust from the gas turbine passes through a waste heat boiler

and provides steam for a conventional steam turbine. The steam turbine generates additional

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electricity. There are three generic types of gasifiers. The first is the moving-bed process

where large particles of coal move slowly downward through the reactor. Counter currently, a

stream of steam and oxygen (or air) moves upward, devolatilizes the coal, resulting in the two

products, gas and ash. The second type is the fluidized bed gasifier. In this process, the

resultant gas is desulphurized within the reactor using limestone or dolomite as sorbent.

Particulates are removed downstream with cyclones. The entrained bed gasifier is the third

generic type. Here, the pulverized coal and the oxidant are introduced together and move

concurrently with the steam through the gasifier while they react with each other.

IGCC plants are expected to operate at efficiencies of up to 40%. By the end of the decade,

IGCC plants are projected to achieve thermal efficiencies of 43% giving them ideal near-term

potential for reducing emissions from conventional coal-fired power plants with efficiencies

of 35% [25].

Furthermore, oxygen-based IGCC plants are expected to have a lower cost of generated

electricity when capture of carbon is required, as opposed to capture of CO2 from the flue gas

of PC plants because of higher concentration and partial pressure. By using a shift-reactor334

in an IGCC, the carbon in the syngas can be converted into a pure stream of CO2 that can be

captured and sequestered. The carbon capture in this case occurs before combustion of the

syngas – ‘precombustion capture’ – unlike in PC plants, where carbon capture must occur

post-combustion. Broadly, gasification processes can be divided into air-blown and oxygen-

blown gasification. Most gasification processes use oxygen as an oxidant, although air-blown

gasifier systems are simpler and possibly cheaper. Air-blown gasifiers are larger since they

have to handle large nitrogen volumes. While air-blown gasifiers are not considered at present

for commercial power applications335 because of its compatibility with carbon capture, there is

still ongoing research in this area. Air-blown IGCC might still be considered if the IGCC’s

local environmental benefits are highly valued.336 In contrast, gasification of coal using

oxygen reduces the size of the gasifier and it is more amenable to carbon capture. However,

the requirement of an air separation unit (ASU) for oxygen production raises the total plant

cost and the power plant’s auxiliary consumption. In addition, further integration is possible

for oxygen-blown systems, wherein the ASU can be integrated with a compressor powered by

the gas turbine. Given these advantages, most of the planned IGCCs world-wide are based on

oxygen-blown gasifiers.There are three main types of gasifiers: moving-bed gasifier,

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fluidized-bed gasifier, and entrained-flow gasifiers. It is important to note that worldwide

IGCC experience and information is primarily based on entrained-flow gasifiers, since there

are very few large-scale IGCC systems using fluidized-bed and moving-bed gasifiers.

The two clean coal technologies described above are considered in the present MARKAL

model. Since both of the technologies are not mature in their technological development, it

has been considered that these technologies will be available from 2015 onwards. The techno-

economic parameters have been given in Table 6.1.

Two alternative scenarios have been developed with respect to the base case as discussed in

chapter 5.The first is the Advanced technology scenario and the second is Mixed scenario. In

Advanced technology scenario only penetration of advanced nuclear (AHWR) and clean coal

technologies (PFBC and IGCC) in the power sector has been considered. The mixed scenario

uses the energy saving potential in various sectors of Indian economy together with advanced

technologies.

Table.6.1 Cost and performance estimates for advanced nuclear and clean coal

technology in Indian MARKAL model [26-27].

Technology Start Year

Lifetime

(years)

Efficiency (%)

Availability Fraction

Investment

Cost (US$/kW)

Fixed O&M cost (US$/kW)

Variable O&M cost (US$/kWh)

Advanced

Nuclear Power 2020 60 40 0.65 1250 55 0.0025

IGCC Power 2015 30 40.6 0.84 1287 29.8 0.73

PFBC Power 2015 40 38.6 0.6 1570 38.11 3.1

6.4 Model Results

All of the advanced nuclear and clean coal technologies with their techno-economic

parameters have been used as input for the MARKAL and the run of the software gives very

useful results for the future resource allocation of energy sources. The CO2 can also be

reduced marginally with the application of new technologies. Detailed analyses of results are

given below:

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The energy mix in advanced technology scenario at least cost is shown in Fig.6.1.It is

observed that the conventional coal technology remains the dominant energy resource with

only marginal increase. Coal power plant capacity increases from the base year 2005 to the

year 2015. From 2015 to 2035 there is stagnation for conventional coal and it increases again

up to 2045.During the year 2015 to 2035 when coal and large hydro almost remains constant

the additional installed capacity should be shared by conventional nuclear, wind, IGCC and

advanced nuclear, contribution a total of 450 GW. Between 2035 and 2045 there is a slight

increase in all the technologies however, other renewable start making significant contribution

in year 2045.The projected installed capacity is 752GW.The oil and gas power plant capacity

shows decreasing patterns over the years. The large hydro power plant becomes double of its

present capacity in year 2015 and after that slowly decreases up to 2045.The other renewable

technologies becomes suddenly important in year 2040 and be a measure source of electricity

production. The PFBC technology not getting allocation in the energy mix of present scenario

due to higher installation costs.

Fig.6.1 Electricity installed capacity in advanced technology scenario.

The corresponding energy production by considering the typical parameter for a power station

is shown in Fig.6.2 below (in PJ).Coal is still dominant electric energy generation technology.

Advanced nuclear emerge as major power producing resource.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(GW

)

Coal Gas Oil Large HydroNuclear Wind Small Hydro Other RenewableIGCC PFBC Advanced Nuclear

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

Ele

ctric

ity G

enera

tion(P

J)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

Fig.6.2 Resource wise electricity generation in advanced technology scenario.

6.4.1 CO2 Emission Reduction

Fig.6.3 shows that CO2 emissions are minimally impacted. The additional advanced

technologies mentioned in the previous sections, have a negligible effect on carbon emissions

in Indian power sector. The result shows that about 16% CO2 will be reduced in this scenario

in the year 2045.The reduction of CO2 itself starts in year 2020 with a very little reduction and

decreases very slowly. So with this policy implication scenario we are not able to achieve the

Kyoto target even in hundreds of year. Advanced technology introduction in power sector

however, play an important role in departing significantly energy mix from base case but CO2

emission trajectory not depart significantly.

Fig.6.3 Electric sector CO2 emission in advanced technology scenario relative to base case.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

millio

n tonnes C

O2

Base case

Advanced technology

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6.5 Mixed Scenario Results

However, as discussed in chapter 3 substantial reduction in required power can be achieved

by implementing energy efficiency measures. If we introduce full energy conservation

potential (Table 3.1) or partial energy conservation measures he scenario emerged as given in

section 6.1.

To mitigate CO2 emission marginally there is a requirement of an integrated approach. Fig.6.4

shows the mixed scenario resource allocation for Indian power sector.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity(G

W)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

(a) Resource wise installed capacity in mixed (b) Resource wise installed capacity in mixed scenario with maximum energy conservation scenario with 15% energy savings and

potential and advanced technologies. advanced technologies. .

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity(G

W)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity(P

J)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

(c)Resource wise electricity generation in mixed (d) Resource wise electricity generation in mixed scenario with 10% energy savings and scenario with 5% energy savings and advanced advanced technologies. technologies

Fig.6.4 Resource wise installed capacity in various energy savings potential scenarios.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Ins

tall

ed

Ca

pa

cit

y(G

W)

Coal Gas Oil Large HydroNuclear Wind Small Hydro Other Renew ableIGCC PFBC Advanced Nuclear

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The result in Fig.6.4 (a) shows that when we apply conservation potential with advanced tech

nologies, the power requirement reduced heavily. The energy mix also affected with their

proportion changed over the years. In base case scenario the total power requirement in 2045

is 752 GW while in mixed scenario it decreases to 472 GW which is 37.5% reduction in

installed capacity. The total installed capacity increases faster up to the year 2015 and then

shows slow increase up to year 2040.After the year 2040 there is a decrease in total power

requirement. This may be due to the effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements in

future. The conventional coal power technology in this scenario becomes the least choice of

electricity generation in year 2045.The advanced technologies may be the dominant electricity

production technologies in long future as can be seen in the Fig.6.4 (a).Contrast to the

advanced technology scenario in the previous section, in this scenario the other renewable

scenario does not get allocation in the energy mix. This may be due to the reduced

requirement and relatively higher investment costs.

Other three energy savings scenarios (i.e. 15%, 10% and 5%) shows almost same pattern for

coal power technology. First increase from the base year 2005 to 2015.Then there is

stagnation up to year 2040 in 15% and 10% scenarios and 2035 in 5% scenario and finally a

slight increasing pattern. In 10% and 5% scenario other renewable is giving significant

allocation in year 2040 while in 15% savings scenario almost zero allocation. Large hydro

remains almost constant throughout the planning period in all energy savings scenarios.

The corresponding electricity generation in various scenarios is shown in Fig.6.5. The

advanced nuclear technology becomes important after 2025 in all of the scenarios. Except

energy conservation potential scenario, coal is showing increasing pattern in all other

scenarios.

Due to reduced requirement, the major source of electricity production in energy conservation

potential is advanced nuclear and the clean coal technologies. Therefore conventional

resources do not get impacted allocation in the energy mix as shown in Fig.6.5 and the result

is a very heavy reduction in CO2 emission.

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

Ele

ctr

icity

Ge

ne

ratio

n(P

J)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Coal

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Ele

ctr

icity

Ge

ne

ratio

n(P

J)

Advaced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

(a)Resource wise electricity generation in mixed (b) Resource wise electricity generation in mixed scenario with maximum energy conservation scenario with 15% energy savings and advanced potential and advanced technologies. technologies

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

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icity

ge

ne

ratio

n(P

J)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

Ele

ctr

icity

Ge

ne

ratio

n(P

J)

Advanced Nuclear

PFBC

IGCC

Other renew able

Small Hydro

Wind

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Oil

Gas

Coal

(c)Resource wise electricity generation in mixed (d) Resource wise electricity generation in mixed

scenario with 10% energy savings and advanced scenario with 5% energy savings and advanced technologies. technologies.

Fig.6.5Resource wise electricity generation in various energy savings potential scenarios.

6.5.1 CO2 Emission reduction

The carbon dioxide emission in various scenarios is shown in Fig.6.6.Introducing advanced

technologies in Indian power sector can only solve the problem of energy security and not too

much the sustainability. Since advanced technology can reduce the carbon dioxide only about

16% which is not a sustainable solution for environmental protection.

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Now, if we introduce the energy conservation potentials together with advanced technologies

there is a great reduction in carbon dioxide mission. The 5%, 10% and 15% energy savings

scenarios show marginal reduction in CO2 emission.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Year

Millio

n tonnes C

O2

Base case Advanced Technology

Advanced Tech.+5% energy savings Advanced Tech.+10% energy savings

Advanced Tech.+15% energy savings Advenced Tech.+ energy conservation potential

Fig.6.6 Electric sector CO2 emission in mixed scenarios relative to the advanced technology and base case scenario.

The 15% energy savings estimates about 46% emission reduction while 10% savings

measures about 35% emission reduction in the year 2045.The great amount of carbon dioxide

can be seen in the full energy conservation potential. The two scenarios, advanced technology

and energy conservation potentials are mixed together and CO2 is reduced about 70% as

compared to the base case in 2045.

6.6 Conclusions

The above discussions of various scenarios show that if only one approach is applied to the

power sector we can not get a sustainable energy future. An integrated approach is required

for the resource generation and also for the CO2 mitigation.

The introduction of advanced technologies in Indian power sector can change the proportion

of each resources for electricity production but not reduce significant the carbon dioxide.

Since Indian power sector emits major proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,

therefore, at present it feels huge pressure to switch over to the renewable sources for power

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generation. Due to high investment cost and gestation period it is not viable in near future.

Therefore, the holistic approach of energy conservation is most suitable at this time for

immediate action.

Various energy conservation scenarios show a great amount of carbon dioxide reduction. Full

energy savings potential shows about 72% carbon dioxide reduction in the year 2045.

References

[1] CEA (2008)‘http://cea.nic.in/power_sec_reports/Executive_Summary/2008_12

/27-33.pdf ’.

[2] REUTERS (2008)‘http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSDEL167

11520080818’.

[3] EXPRESSINDIA (2007)‘http://www.expressindia.com/news/fullstory.php?ne

wsid=65381’.

[4] LIVEMINT (2008)‘http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/30222448/Uranium-

shortage-holding-back.html’.

[5] MOP(2008) ’http://powermin.gov.in/JSP_SERVLETS/internal.jsp#’

[6] OUTLOOKINDIA (2008)‘http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=321

896’

[7] REDIFF (2008) ‘http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/jan/25france.htm’.

[8] LIVEMINT (2008)‘http://www.livemint.com/2008/10/09005930/Bush-signs-

IndiaUS- nuclear-de.html?d=1’.

[9] TIMESOFINDIA (2007)‘http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Business/Kazakh

_oil_deals_hang _in_balance/articleshow/40 19306.cms’.

[10] NDTV (2009)‘http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN

20090080481 & ch=1/18/2009%203:57:00%20PM’.

[11] PTI (2007)‘ http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/3AA1B3B19AE0CD

276525754500564CCB?OpenDocument’.

[12] BBC (2008) ‘ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7883223.stm’.

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[13] NTPC (2008) ‘Nuclear Power to Spend $3 Billion on India Atomic

Plants’Newaletter’.

[14] PTI (2008)‘http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/E696AFE1CBD8BA

4C652574A600103BE1?OpenDocument’.

[15] LIVEMINT (2008)‘http://www.livemint.com/2008/07/10012202/At-G8-

Singh-Bush- reaffirm-c.html’.

[16] Thomas, S. (2005) ‘The economics of nuclear power: analysis of recent

studies’, Public Services International Research Unit, University of Greenwich.

[17] WIKIPEDIA(2009) ‘ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_coal’.

[18] Chikkatur, Ananth P. and Sagar Ambuj D. (2007) ‘Cleaner Power in India:

Towards a Clean-Coal-Technology Roadmap’, Discussion Paper 2007-06,

Cambridge, Mass.: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

[19] CEA (2006) ‘All-India Electricity Statistics: General Review 2006.’ Central

Electricity Authority. See: http://www.cea.nic.in.

[20] CETC (2005) ‘Canada's Clean Coal Technology Roadmap (CCTRM)’,See:

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/es/etb/cetc/combustion/cctrm/htmldocs/cctrm_e.html

[21] IEA (2005) ‘Clean coal technologies - home page.’ See: http://www.ieacoal.

org.uk/site/ieaccc/home.

[22] Ghosh, D.2005 ‘Assessment of Advanced Coal-Based Electricity Generation

Technology Options for India: Potential Learning from U.S. Experiences.’

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of

Government, Cambridge. See: http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/?program=STPP

[23] Power Clean (2004) ‘Fossil Fuel Power Generation: State-Of-The-Art.’ Power

Clean R, D&D.

[24] Gopinath, V.K., Balagurunathan, S., Gopalakrishnan, V.(2002) ‘Advanced

Clean Coal Technology ,Perspectives for India.’See:www.igeos.pl/doc/coaldial

ogue/WECCoalSlides.ppt.

[25] Thematic Network (2004) ‘http://www.cleanpowernet.net/state_art.pdf’.

[26] Timothy L.J.et al (2006) ‘MARKAL Scenario Analyses of Technology

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Options for the Electric Sector: The Impact on Air Quality’ United States

Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development

Washington DC 20460.

[27] TERI (2006) ‘National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030’,

Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser, and Government of India.

Appendix 6.1

The installed capacity,capacity under construction and planned nuclear power projects are

given in the following tables.

Table.(a) Power station wise Installed nuclear power in India.

Power

station Operator State Type Units

Total

capacity

(MW)

Kaiga NPCIL Karnataka PHWR 220 x 3 660

Kakrapar NPCIL Gujarat PHWR 220 x 2 440

Kalpakkam NPCIL Tamil Nadu PHWR 220 x 2 440

Narora NPCIL Uttar Pradesh

PHWR 220 x 2 440

Rawatbhata NPCIL Rajasthan PHWR 100 x 1, 200 x 1, 220 x 2

740

Tarapur NPCIL Maharastra BWR (PHWR) 160 x 2, 540 x 2 1400

Total 17 4120

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Table.(b) Power station wise nuclear projects under construction in India.

Power station Operator State Type Units Total capacity

(MW)

Kaiga NPCIL Karnataka PHWR 220 x 1 220

Rawatbhata NPCIL Rajasthan PHWR 220 x 2 440

Kudankulam NPCIL Tamil Nadu VVER-1000 1000 x 2 2000

Kalpakkam NPCIL Tamil Nadu PFBR 500 x 1 500

Total 6 3160

Table.(c) Power station wise nuclear power planned projects in India.

Power station Operator State Type Units Total capacity

(MW)

Kakrapar NPCIL Gujarat PHWR 640 x 2 1280

Rawatbhata NPCIL Rajasthan PHWR 640 x 2 1280

Kudankulam NPCIL Tamil Nadu VVER-1200 1200 x 2 2400

Jaitapur NPCIL Maharastra EPR 1600 x 4 6400

Kaiga NPCIL Karnataka PWR 1000 x 1, 1500 x 1 2500


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