China in 2030: The Future Demographic in 2030.pdf · China in 2030: The Future Demographic ......

China in 2030: The Future Demographic

May 2010

© Euromonitor International

2

Population and Homes

China in 2030: Summary

Summary

Population Past, Present and Future

Population Shift

Ageing

Men and Women in China

Births and Deaths

Diversity

Population by Ethnicity

Cities

Data

http://www.euromonitor.com/



3


Summary

China in 2030

Population: 1,392 million

Median age: 42.0 years

Life expectancy: 77.1 years

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

„00

0

Population age shift: 2010-2030

2010 2030

Fastest-growing cities:

2010-2030

1. Tianjin

2. Shenyang

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Non-Han population: 2030

Zhuang Manchu Tujia Hui Miao Uygur Yi

Mongolian Tibetan Dong Bouyei Yao Bai Other




4


• In 2030, the population of China will

reach 1.39 billion, an increase of 4.3%

from 2010. Growth will be mainly driven

by huge increases in the number of

those 60 and over. The population of this

age group will rise by more than 136

million in 2010-2030 – an increase of

68.9%. This group will account for

24.0% of total population by 2030.

• The heat chart shows two bands of red

and orange where the population bulges

will occur in 2030. The first refers to

those 40-43 years of age. This group will

number more than 101 million in 2030

and represent 7.3% of total population.

The second and larger group is made up

of those 56-67 years. In 2030, these

people will represent 18.8% of total

population and total nearly 262 million.

• Several groups will see a fall in their

numbers in 2010-2030. The number of

children 0-6 years will fall by 10.0 million

or 10.6% in 2010-2030. Meanwhile, the

population of teenagers and young

adults 14-24 years will drop by 37.9

million or 17.3%.

Population Past, Present and Future

China in 2030

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980-2030

(Each dot represents a single-year age group)

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Reading the chart: This “heat chart” depicts changes in the age structure of the

population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single

year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest

concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the

lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in

demographic terms.

„000




5


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

„00

0

Population by age: 2010 and 2030

2010 2030 94 million more 56-68

year olds in 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Po

pu

lation

Den

sity -

Pe

rson

s p

er

sq

kilo

me

tre

To

tal P

op

ula

tion

-„0

00

Total Population and Population Density: 1980s-2020s

Total population Population density

• China‟s population is rising decade by decade but at a decelerating rate and is expected to peak in 2027. The total

number will be growing at an average rate of 0.34% per year in 2010-2020 and just 0.07% in 2020-2030.

• Beijing‟s “one-child” policy is the centrepiece of the government‟s efforts at population control. The programme,

which has been in force for two decades, applies to less than half the total population but Chinese officials claim that

it has averted 400 million births. The policy restricts 35.9% of the population, mostly in large and medium-sized cities,

to one child. However, urban couples who are both only children can have two children. In rural areas consisting of

19 provinces, couples are allowed to have a second child if their first is a girl. This applies to 52.9% of the population.

In addition, more than 11% of the population, mostly minority groups, is free to have two or more children.

• Another factor slowing the rate of population growth is a steady decline in the number of childbearing women. In

2010-2030, the number of this group will shrink by 53.6 million or 15.0%.

Population Shift

China in 2030





6


100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

19

80

= 1

00

Growth indices: 1980-2030

Total

Population aged 65+

Population aged 80+

• China‟s population is steadily ageing. By 2030, the median age will reach 42.0 years – 3.2 years greater than in 2010

and 19.5 years more than in 1980.

• A very large jump in the population of those 70+ is expected in 2010-2030. The number in this age range will rise by

57.5 million or 68.6%. Much of this increase will occur among those 80 and over. The number of very elderly will

increase by 112% (nearly 24 million) in 2010-2030. According to the UN, China currently has the world‟s largest

number of very elderly and by 2050 it will have more people over the age of 60 than any other country.

• Beijing‟s aggressive efforts at population control, combined with a natural fall in birth rates, contribute to the

accelerated ageing process. However, steady improvements in healthcare are also a factor. In 2007, the WHO

ranked China‟s healthcare system as one of the world‟s worst – even lower than Haiti‟s. Faced with mounting

dissatisfaction, Chinese leaders have agreed to spend more than US$124 billion to subsidise coverage and improve

hospitals.

Ageing

China in 2030

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

„00

0

Population aged 0-14 and 65+:1980-2030

Population aged 65+ Population aged 0-14

Population 65+ overtakes

0-14 in 2029





7


• The median age for females will be 43.3 years in

2030 – 4.0 years greater than in 2010. Males will

have a median age of 40.8 years in 2030. This

will be 2.5 years greater than in 2010.

• Among females, those between 50 and 64 years

will be the most populous group in 2030

accounting for 23.7% of all women. The largest

group of males will be those between 35 and 49

years (22.7% of all men).

• Among those under 20 years, males will

outnumber females by 28.2 million (21.1%) in

2030.

• The life expectancy of females will be 79.1 years

in 2030, up from 75.4 years in 2010. Males will

have a life expectancy of 75.1 years in 2030

compared with 71.8 years in 2010. The gap

between male and female life expectancy will

also widen slightly; in 2030, women will be living

3.9 years longer than men on average. High rates

of smoking and alcohol consumption as well as

poor working conditions negatively affect the life

expectancy of males.

Men and Women in China

China in 2030

Age pyramid: 2010 and 2030

‘000





8


28.9 29.6 29.8 30.0

28.8

20.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Ye

ars

Mean age at childbirth: 1980s-2020s

21.2

17.6

12.6 11.49.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Pe

r „0

00

inh

ab

ita

nts

Birth rates: 1980s-2020s

• The fertility rate has been steadily falling since the early 1980s. It is currently 1.8 children per female and will not

change in 2010-2030. The mean age at childbirth will be rising until 2020 when a record high is reached (30.0

years). It will gradually fall in later years as restrictions on childbirth are relaxed and standards of living rise.

• China‟s birth rate had fallen to 11.8 births per „000 females in 2010 – a 51.1% decrease in 20 years. It will continue to

fall but at a much slower pace in 2010-2030. The country‟s birth rate is already comparatively low – about two-thirds

of the regional average.

• China‟s death rate will reach an all-time high in 2030 as the population ages. The indicator will increase by 33.9% in

2010-2030. Vascular disease and cancer have become the leading causes of death.

• In recent years, life expectancy in the richest provinces has been more than 13 years greater than in the poorest

provinces. This suggests wide disparities in the quality and availability of healthcare.

Births and Deaths

China in 2030





9


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

„00

0

Han and Non-Han population: 1980-2030

Non-Han Han

• At the turn of the century, an estimated 33

million ethnic Chinese were living abroad in

countries other than Hong Kong and Macau.

Most were from southern coastal provinces –

particularly the poorest parts of Guangdong,

Fujian, and Zhejiang.

• China has consistently experienced a net

outflow of people and the number has steadily

risen over the past several decades as controls

have gradually been relaxed.

• According to the Development Research Centre

on Migration, the favoured countries of

destination for Chinese emigrants are Canada,

Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines

and the USA.

• In 2009, remittance inflows amounted to

US$47.0 billion representing an important

source of funds for many rural families.

• The government of China officially recognises 56 different ethnic groups. The Han is by far the most populous of

these groups, accounting for more than 90% of total population. Most non-Han ethnic groups are currently

experiencing faster rates of growth than the Han because they are not subject to the same population restrictions

including the one-child policy.

• Although China is ethnically diverse, the number of foreign citizens working in the country is minuscule –

approximately 200,000 at present. About a quarter of these expatriates live and work in Shanghai. Foreigners,

however, exert a measure of economic influence far beyond their number because most hold managerial and

professional positions in key industries such as information technology and telecommunications.

Diversity

China in 2030





10


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2030

% o

f to

tal p

op

ula

tion

Non-Han population by ethnicity: 2010/2030Other

Bai

Yao

Bouyei

Dong

Tibetan

Mongolian

Yi

Uygur

Miao

Hui

Tujia

Manchu

Zhuang

• The largest ethnic minorities include the Zhuang, Manchu, Tujia, Hui and Miao, each of which will number more than

10 million by 2030. Together, however, these 5 ethnic groups will account for just 4.4% of the total population (or 61.2

million) in 2030.

• The Zhuang are found mostly in southern China in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Smaller numbers live in

Yunnan, Guangdong and Hunan provinces. The Manchu are scattered throughout China, with a large number found

in Liaoning Province. The Tujia live mainly in the Wuling Mountains on the border between the Hunan, Hubei and

Guizhou provinces.The Hui are concentrated in northwestern China while the Miao are found mostly in southern

China.


China in 2030


• Rates of growth among most ethnic minorities

are generally higher than that of the Han

because they have not been subject to forms of

population control – particularly the one-child

policy.

• Standard Mandarin is the official national spoken

language, although various autonomous and

special administrative regions have additional

official languages.

• Mandarin is spoken by 69.2% of the population

and its share will change very little over time.

Other popular languages include Wu, Cantonese

and Min. Presently, 14.9% of the population

speaks one of these three languages and in

2030 approximately 14.4% will speak them.

• At least 6 different family languages can be

identified among the many languages spoken in

China. Many of these languages are mutually

unintelligible.




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• The pace of China‟s urbanisation is impressive.

In 1980, just 19.4% of China‟s total population

lived in urban areas. Today, the share is 47.6%

and in 2030 it will rise to 63.9%. At that time, the

country will have nearly 890 million urban

residents.

• Most of China‟s larger cities are located on or

near the coast. This development reflects the

country‟s heavy reliance on export-driven growth

– in particular the many industries and export

processing zones that have been established

along the coast and adjacent to Hong Kong.

Belatedly, Chinese planners are trying to alter the

existing pattern of migration by creating more

new industrial centres in inland cities.

• Shanghai will still be China‟s largest city in 2030,

though its population has been falling since 2004.

In 2010, Shanghai has 1.4% of all urban

residents and by 2030 it will account for less than

1%. In fact eight of China‟s 10 largest cities will

see their numbers fall in 2010-2030. The

exceptions are Tianjin and Shenyang. It is the

rapid rise of “second-tier” cities that is changing

the urban landscape. These cities offer cheaper

costs for labour, land and energy. Their growth is

also driven by local and provincial officials who

are intent on attracting more investment and

export-oriented industries.

Cities

China in 2030

China’s 10 biggest cities: 2010/2020/2030

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics




12


Data

Population by 5-Year Age Group

Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

Vital Statistics


Population by City




13


‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 70,700 69,542 65,901 65,832 65,004 60,690 57,106

5-9 94,301 81,293 70,359 69,363 71,833 73,565 71,055

10-14 131,111 103,675 82,137 73,451 75,053 80,557 85,302

15-19 99,999 110,525 91,403 74,890 69,560 73,811 81,825

20-24 88,134 79,266 110,058 91,783 77,910 74,834 81,797

25-29 112,829 84,902 84,047 116,926 98,540 84,992 82,910

30-34 125,986 110,592 83,501 83,582 116,763 98,507 85,034

35-39 110,658 126,320 109,805 83,340 83,597 116,905 98,855

40-44 83,840 112,880 131,432 114,356 87,000 87,514 122,386

45-49 89,265 87,809 115,693 133,698 116,519 88,945 89,494

50-54 66,140 94,652 93,746 119,406 137,638 119,363 90,550

55-59 48,578 69,455 98,510 94,032 117,509 131,924 111,165

60-64 43,627 51,158 68,282 92,050 84,763 103,690 112,245

65-69 36,689 43,172 45,742 58,277 76,239 67,963 80,582

70-74 26,845 34,799 37,153 38,069 47,579 60,912 52,912

75-79 16,710 22,173 25,209 26,556 27,154 33,876 43,038

80+ 12,447 17,667 21,439 26,216 30,599 35,303 45,373

TOTAL 1,257,860 1,299,880 1,334,418 1,361,826 1,383,261 1,393,351 1,391,630

Median Age 31.2 35.4 38.8 41.1 42.0 41.9 42.0

Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data





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‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 38,748 38,985 37,260 37,067 36,372 33,794 31,701

5-9 50,800 45,016 38,537 38,561 39,728 40,403 38,789

10-14 68,818 56,288 45,365 39,805 41,269 44,051 46,279

15-19 51,891 58,441 50,137 41,653 37,925 40,823 44,961

20-24 44,277 39,002 55,320 47,627 41,016 38,597 42,780

25-29 56,943 42,069 41,910 59,250 51,614 45,134 43,055

30-34 63,886 55,471 42,003 42,408 60,143 52,393 45,804

35-39 56,323 63,438 55,082 42,088 42,533 60,373 52,655

40-44 43,281 57,158 66,469 58,064 44,440 45,028 63,874

45-49 45,722 44,926 58,349 67,781 59,281 45,508 46,064

50-54 34,242 48,585 48,088 60,436 69,431 59,867 45,383

55-59 25,244 36,076 50,072 47,630 58,144 64,638 53,847

60-64 22,750 26,722 34,964 46,211 42,292 50,645 54,163

65-69 18,601 22,326 23,361 29,221 37,434 33,202 38,380

70-74 13,100 17,478 18,910 19,255 23,847 30,177 26,346

75-79 7,563 10,586 12,364 13,236 13,519 16,827 21,262

80+ 4,732 7,193 9,220 11,399 13,347 15,305 19,503

TOTAL 646,920 669,760 687,411 701,692 712,333 716,766 714,847

Median Age 30.9 35.0 38.2 40.2 40.7 40.3 40.8

Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data





15


‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 31,951 30,557 28,641 28,765 28,632 26,896 25,404

5-9 43,501 36,278 31,822 30,802 32,105 33,163 32,266

10-14 62,293 47,387 36,773 33,646 33,784 36,506 39,024

15-19 48,109 52,084 41,265 33,237 31,635 32,988 36,864

20-24 43,857 40,263 54,738 44,156 36,894 36,237 39,016

25-29 55,886 42,833 42,137 57,676 46,926 39,857 39,855

30-34 62,100 55,121 41,498 41,175 56,619 46,114 39,230

35-39 54,336 62,882 54,723 41,251 41,064 56,532 46,200

40-44 40,559 55,722 64,963 56,292 42,560 42,486 58,512

45-49 43,543 42,883 57,344 65,917 57,238 43,437 43,431

50-54 31,898 46,067 45,658 58,970 68,208 59,496 45,167

55-59 23,334 33,379 48,438 46,402 59,365 67,285 57,318

60-64 20,877 24,436 33,318 45,839 42,472 53,045 58,082

65-69 18,088 20,846 22,382 29,056 38,804 34,761 42,203

70-74 13,746 17,321 18,243 18,814 23,732 30,735 26,566

75-79 9,146 11,587 12,845 13,320 13,635 17,049 21,776

80+ 7,715 10,473 12,219 14,817 17,252 19,998 25,870

TOTAL 610,940 630,120 647,007 660,135 670,927 676,586 676,783

Median Age 31.5 35.8 39.3 41.9 43.3 43.6 43.3

Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data





16


2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Birth rates 14.0 12.4 11.8 11.5 10.5 9.4 8.8

Live births („000) 17,714.9 16,166.1 15,714.7 15,691.6 14,582.1 13,121.3 12,275.8

Fertility rates 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Age at first childbirth 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.6

Death rates 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.9 8.3 9.0 9.9

Deaths („000) 8,144.1 8,487.2 9,916.4 10,713.0 11,554.8 12,590.0 13,813.0

Vital Statistics

Data


Note: Birth, death, marriage and divorce rates all refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per

female. Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years.




17


‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Han 1,152,074 1,189,543 1,220,298 1,244,668 1,263,716 1,272,467 1,270,484

Zhuang 16,379 16,357 16,385 16,439 16,489 16,438 16,267

Manchu 10,815 11,000 11,175 11,324 11,446 11,481 11,425

Tujia 8,128 9,060 9,801 10,372 10,808 11,117 11,306

Hui 9,938 10,317 10,638 10,891 11,098 11,212 11,229

Miao 9,051 9,613 10,069 10,431 10,711 10,886 10,959

Uygur 8,504 8,906 9,233 9,498 9,706 9,828 9,860

Yi 7,858 8,267 8,603 8,870 9,078 9,205 9,246

Mongolian 5,886 6,251 6,547 6,782 6,963 7,075 7,120

Tibetan 5,483 5,768 6,000 6,185 6,329 6,415 6,442

Dong 2,997 3,153 3,282 3,382 3,462 3,510 3,525

Bouyei 3,008 3,150 3,268 3,363 3,436 3,479 3,491

Yao 2,670 2,856 3,005 3,122 3,214 3,271 3,298

Bai 1,881 1,968 2,040 2,097 2,142 2,167 2,172

Other 13,187 13,670 14,075 14,403 14,665 14,801 14,808


Data





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Population by City

Data

‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Shanghai 9,611 10,133 9,080 8,291 7,782 7,457 7,271

Tianjin 5,202 4,808 5,213 5,655 6,083 6,460 6,784

Beijing 7,179 7,910 6,907 6,125 5,592 5,231 5,002

Shenyang 3,954 4,029 3,946 3,933 3,978 4,045 4,123

Wuhan 4,364 4,702 4,352 4,110 3,975 3,905 3,882

Guangzhou 4,223 4,333 4,035 3,834 3,728 3,677 3,667

Chongqing 3,903 4,122 3,808 3,592 3,470 3,405 3,382

Harbin 2,614 2,804 2,588 2,435 2,349 2,302 2,285

Xi'an 2,518 2,730 2,500 2,334 2,235 2,179 2,152

Nanjing 2,685 3,103 2,647 2,283 2,027 1,849 1,730

Total urban

population 455,594 558,818 634,798 709,693 779,388 838,979 888,953





19


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