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Collusion at the Extensive Margin (Presentation)

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    Collusion at the Extensive Margin

    Martin ByfordRMIT University

    Joshua GansUniversity of Melbourne

    September 2010

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    Introduction

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Introduction

    Collusion at the intensive margininvolves rms coordinating their strategic actions within the markets in which they come into contact.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Introduction

    Collusion at the intensive margininvolves rms coordinating their strategic actions within the markets in which they come into contact.

    Collusion at the extensive margin involves rms coordinating their participation across markets in order to avoid coming into contact.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Introduction

    Collusion at the intensive margininvolves rms coordinating their strategic actions within the markets in which they come into contact.

    Collusion at the extensive margin involves rms coordinating their participation across markets in order to avoid coming into contact.

    This paper is the rst to develop a theoretical framework for analysing collusion at the extensive margin.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Motivating Case

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Motivating Case

    In 2001 the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission took

    Rural Press and Waikerie to the Federal Court of Australia alleginganti-competitive agreement, exclusionary conduct and abuse of market power.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Motivating Case

    In 2001 the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission took

    Rural Press and Waikerie to the Federal Court of Australia alleginganti-competitive agreement, exclusionary conduct and abuse of market power.

    The matter went all the way to the High Court of Australia with the

    anti-competitive agreement case upheld.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Motivating Case

    In 2001 the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission took

    Rural Press and Waikerie to the Federal Court of Australia alleginganti-competitive agreement, exclusionary conduct and abuse of market power.

    The matter went all the way to the High Court of Australia with the

    anti-competitive agreement case upheld.

    The basic story was one of collusion at the extensive margin.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Rural Press and Waikerie

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    Rural Press and Waikerie

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    Rural Press and Waikerie

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    Rural Press and Waikerie

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    Entry by the River News

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    Entry by the River News

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    The Threat

    The attached copies of pages from The River News were sent to me lastweek. The Mannum advertising was again evident, which suggests yourWaikerie operator, John Pick, is still not focussing on the traditional area of operations.

    I wanted to formally record my desire to reach an understanding with yourfamily in terms of where each of us focuses our publishing efforts.

    If you continue to attack in Mannum, a prime readership area of the MurrayValley Standard, it may be we will have to look at expanding our operationsinto areas that we have not traditionally services [sic].

    I thought I would write to you so there could be no misunderstanding ourposition. I will not bother you again on this subject.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Ian Law, Rural Press, 7 April 1998

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    The Threat

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    The Threat

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    The Response

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    The Response

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    Other Relevant Cases

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Other Relevant Cases

    In Bell Atlantic v. Twombly it was alleged that the Baby Bells conspired to restrict competition for local telephone services by failing toexpand into one and others territories.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Other Relevant Cases

    In Bell Atlantic v. Twombly it was alleged that the Baby Bells conspired to restrict competition for local telephone services by failing toexpand into one and others territories.

    The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does notcreate a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Other Relevant Cases

    In Bell Atlantic v. Twombly it was alleged that the Baby Bells conspired to restrict competition for local telephone services by failing toexpand into one and others territories.

    The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does notcreate a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.

    Apple followed Googles entry into the smart phone market by purchasing the mobile advertising company Quattro Wireless andannouncing the iAds service.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Other Relevant Cases

    In Bell Atlantic v. Twombly it was alleged that the Baby Bells conspired to restrict competition for local telephone services by failing toexpand into one and others territories.

    The Supreme Court held that parallel conduct alone does notcreate a plausible inference of an illegal arrangement.

    Apple followed Googles entry into the smart phone market by purchasing the mobile advertising company Quattro Wireless andannouncing the iAds service.

    It was reported that Apples action was a reprisal against Googlefollowing Googles violation of a gentlemans agreement. (Stone &Helft, 2010)

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    I d i

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    Contrasting Literature

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    I t d ti

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    I t d ti

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements areeasy to detect.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements areeasy to detect.

    Green and Porter (1984) show that rms may employ temporary punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements areeasy to detect.

    Green and Porter (1984) show that rms may employ temporary punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.

    Bernheim and Whinston (1990) show that multi-market contact canfacilitate collusion by pooling participation constraints.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements areeasy to detect.

    Green and Porter (1984) show that rms may employ temporary punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.

    Bernheim and Whinston (1990) show that multi-market contact canfacilitate collusion by pooling participation constraints.

    Athey, Bagwell and Sanchirico (2003) show that rms may keep pricesrigid to assist in preserving the stability of a collusive outcome.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Contrasting Literature

    Edwards (1955) discussed mutual forbearance by conglomerates.

    Stigler (1964) argues that while colluding at the extensive margin may produce the most robust collusive agreements, these agreements areeasy to detect.

    Green and Porter (1984) show that rms may employ temporary punishments to facilitate collusion in the presence of uncertainty.

    Bernheim and Whinston (1990) show that multi-market contact canfacilitate collusion by pooling participation constraints.

    Athey, Bagwell and Sanchirico (2003) show that rms may keep pricesrigid to assist in preserving the stability of a collusive outcome.

    Fershtman and Pakes (2000) use a semi-collusive Markov perfect

    equilibrium to isolate collusion on a single dimension.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Bernheim-Whinston (1990)

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Bernheim-Whinston (1990)

    Simple intuition: rms should enter multiple markets to improvecartel stability.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Bernheim-Whinston (1990)

    Simple intuition: rms should enter multiple markets to improvecartel stability.

    Complication: requires some combination of non-identical rms,markets and non-constant returns to scale.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Bernheim-Whinston (1990)

    Simple intuition: rms should enter multiple markets to improvecartel stability.

    Complication: requires some combination of non-identical rms,markets and non-constant returns to scale.

    That is, multi-market contact is irrelevant with identical rms,markets and constant returns to scale.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Bernheim-Whinston (1990)

    Simple intuition: rms should enter multiple markets to improvecartel stability.

    Complication: requires some combination of non-identical rms,markets and non-constant returns to scale.

    That is, multi-market contact is irrelevant with identical rms,markets and constant returns to scale.

    Did not consider the possibility that collusion might involve marketforbearance.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Research Questions

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Research Questions

    What conditions support collusion at the extensive margin?

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Research Questions

    What conditions support collusion at the extensive margin?

    How does the presence of multiple markets facilitate collusion?

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Research Questions

    What conditions support collusion at the extensive margin?

    How does the presence of multiple markets facilitate collusion?

    How do different enforcement mechanisms perform in terms of stability and expected returns?

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Introduction

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    Research Questions

    What conditions support collusion at the extensive margin?

    How does the presence of multiple markets facilitate collusion?

    How do different enforcement mechanisms perform in terms of stability and expected returns?

    What are the implications for anti-trust policy of collusion takingplace at the extensive margin?

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    The Model

    Introduction

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    Primitives

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

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    Uncertainty

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    Primitives

    A nite set I of rms.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Primitives

    A nite set I of rms.

    A nite set N of distinct markets or separable market segments.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Primitives

    A nite set I of rms.

    A nite set N of distinct markets or separable market segments.

    Entry into a market costs a rm an amount c. The cost of maintaining a presence is captured in the prot function.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

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    Collusive Equilibria

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    Primitives

    A nite set I of rms.

    A nite set N of distinct markets or separable market segments.

    Entry into a market costs a rm an amount c. The cost of maintaining a presence is captured in the prot function.

    Each market is modelled as a repeated simultaneous moves non-cooperative game.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Primitives

    A nite set I of rms.

    A nite set N of distinct markets or separable market segments.

    Entry into a market costs a rm an amount c. The cost of maintaining a presence is captured in the prot function.

    Each market is modelled as a repeated simultaneous moves non-cooperative game.

    The game has an innite number of periods. All rms have identicaldiscount rate, . Collusion at

    the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Timing

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    Period t

    Timing

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    Period t

    ParticipationStage

    Timing

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    Period t

    ParticipationStage

    State Revealed

    Timing

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    Period t

    ParticipationStage

    State Revealed

    MarketStage

    Timing

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    Period t

    ParticipationStage

    State Revealed InstantaneousProts Realised

    MarketStage

    Timing

    Introduction

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    Markov Perfect Equilibrium

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

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    Uncertainty

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    Markov Perfect Equilibrium

    The general model nests Bernheim and Whinstons (1990) model of multi-market contact. From the perspective of the basic framework

    the key addition is the inclusion of the participation stage.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Collusive Equilibria

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    Markov Perfect Equilibrium

    The general model nests Bernheim and Whinstons (1990) model of multi-market contact. From the perspective of the basic framework

    the key addition is the inclusion of the participation stage.

    In order to rene the (very large) set of subgame perfect equilibriawe conne our attention to the set of Markov Perfect equilibria(MPE).

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Markov Perfect Equilibrium

    The general model nests Bernheim and Whinstons (1990) model of multi-market contact. From the perspective of the basic framework

    the key addition is the inclusion of the participation stage.

    In order to rene the (very large) set of subgame perfect equilibriawe conne our attention to the set of Markov Perfect equilibria(MPE).

    In the market stage the payoff relevant information is the prole of rm participation resulting from actions in the participation stage.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    h d l

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    Markov Perfect Equilibrium

    The general model nests Bernheim and Whinstons (1990) model of multi-market contact. From the perspective of the basic framework

    the key addition is the inclusion of the participation stage.

    In order to rene the (very large) set of subgame perfect equilibriawe conne our attention to the set of Markov Perfect equilibria(MPE).

    In the market stage the payoff relevant information is the prole of rm participation resulting from actions in the participation stage.

    In the participation stage the payoff relevant information is the proleof rm participation from the previous period. This prole dictatesfor which markets a rm must pay an entry cost if it wishes toparticipate in the market in the current period.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Th M d l

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    Lemma 1

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Lemma 1

    Assumption 1: In a one shot game each market produces a unique(expected) equilibrium payoff vector for each prole of participation.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Lemma 1

    Assumption 1: In a one shot game each market produces a unique(expected) equilibrium payoff vector for each prole of participation.

    Initially we assume that markets are identical, separable andsymmetric. The paper contains a richer model in which markets andrms are permitted to be heterogeneous.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Lemma 1

    Assumption 1: In a one shot game each market produces a unique(expected) equilibrium payoff vector for each prole of participation.

    Initially we assume that markets are identical, separable andsymmetric. The paper contains a richer model in which markets andrms are permitted to be heterogeneous.

    Oligopolistic prot to a rm in a market with q participants arewritten *(q).

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Lemma 1

    Assumption 1: In a one shot game each market produces a unique(expected) equilibrium payoff vector for each prole of participation.

    Initially we assume that markets are identical, separable andsymmetric. The paper contains a richer model in which markets andrms are permitted to be heterogeneous.

    Oligopolistic prot to a rm in a market with q participants arewritten *(q).

    Lemma 1: In a Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE) each rm takes itsstatic Nash equilibrium action in the market stage , subject to theprevailing prole of participation.

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Competitive Equilibrium

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Competitive Equilibrium

    Assumption 2 (Expansion Incentive): Entry into an additional marketis always protable for a rm, holding the participation of the

    remaining rms constant.

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    Competitive Equilibrium

    Assumption 2 (Expansion Incentive): Entry into an additional marketis always protable for a rm, holding the participation of the

    remaining rms constant.

    The strong version of assumption 2 requires MPE instantaneousprot to satisfy *(m) > *(m + 1) > c for all m I .

    Collusion at the Extensive

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    Competitive Equilibrium

    Assumption 2 (Expansion Incentive): Entry into an additional marketis always protable for a rm, holding the participation of the

    remaining rms constant.

    The strong version of assumption 2 requires MPE instantaneousprot to satisfy *(m) > *(m + 1) > c for all m I .

    Proposition 1 (Competitive Equilibrium): Where assumptions 1 and2 hold it is always an MPE for all rms to enter and remain in every market.

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    Introduction

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    Collusive Equilibria

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    Introduction

    The Model

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Where collusion takes place at the extensive margin a collusiveagreement has two components:

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Introduction

    The Model

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Where collusion takes place at the extensive margin a collusiveagreement has two components:

    A partition P of the set N of markets that assigns each market to arm or to a contested component of the partition in which all rmsparticipate. A collusive partition is characterised by the number of markets n i in each rm is component of the partition.

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    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Introduction

    The Model

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Where collusion takes place at the extensive margin a collusiveagreement has two components:

    A partition P of the set N of markets that assigns each market to arm or to a contested component of the partition in which all rmsparticipate. A collusive partition is characterised by the number of markets n i in each rm is component of the partition.

    An enforcement mechanism that utilises the threat of reciprocal entry to counter the expansion incentive.

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    Uncertainty

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    Partitioning Contests

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    Contested

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    The Model

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    Grim Strategy Enforcement

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    Grim Strategy Enforcement

    Grim strategy enforcement requires permanent reversion to thecompetitive equilibrium as soon as any rm is observed deviatingfrom the collusive partition.

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    Grim Strategy Enforcement

    Grim strategy enforcement requires permanent reversion to thecompetitive equilibrium as soon as any rm is observed deviatingfrom the collusive partition.

    With identical, separable and symmetric markets grim strategy collusion requires that MPE instantaneous prots decrease at rate

    that is more than proportional to a change in participation: *(1)/ m > *(m).

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    UnitingFrameworks

    f

    Introduction

    The Model

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    Grim Strategy Enforcement

    Grim strategy enforcement requires permanent reversion to thecompetitive equilibrium as soon as any rm is observed deviatingfrom the collusive partition.

    With identical, separable and symmetric markets grim strategy collusion requires that MPE instantaneous prots decrease at rate

    that is more than proportional to a change in participation: *(1)/ m > *(m).

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    GS = maxiI

    j = in j

    (2) cn i (1) (I ) + j = i n j (2) (I ) c

    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Contested

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    Contested

    E C

    Introduction

    The Model

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    Entry Costs

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    E C

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    Entry Costs

    The value of critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in theentry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.

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    Collusive Equilibria

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    E C

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    Entry Costs

    The value of critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in theentry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.

    Innitesimal entry cost need not prevent collusive partition of markets.

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    E t C t

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    Entry Costs

    The value of critical for the stability of the cartel is decreasing in theentry cost c as barriers to entry decrease the returns to a deviation.

    Innitesimal entry cost need not prevent collusive partition of markets.

    Where c goes to zero and N is at least as large as I there exists apartition P that assigns an equal number of markets to each member of the cartel which is stable for sufciently high .

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    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat Equilibria

    Tit f T t E f t

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    Tit-for-Tat Enforcement

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    Uncertainty

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    UnitingFrameworks

    Tit f T t E f t

    Introduction

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    Tit-for-Tat Enforcement

    Where punishments may be triggered along the equilibrium path, or a subset of markets display natural monopoly characteristics, a cartelmay prefer an enforcement mechanism with temporary punishments.

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    Collusive Equilibria

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    UnitingFrameworks

    Tit for Tat Enforcement

    Introduction

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    Tit-for-Tat Enforcement

    Where punishments may be triggered along the equilibrium path, or a subset of markets display natural monopoly characteristics, a cartelmay prefer an enforcement mechanism with temporary punishments.

    At the intensive margin temporary punishments tend to only vary in terms of length.

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    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    UnitingFrameworks

    Tit for Tat Enforcement

    Introduction

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    Tit-for-Tat Enforcement

    Where punishments may be triggered along the equilibrium path, or a subset of markets display natural monopoly characteristics, a cartelmay prefer an enforcement mechanism with temporary punishments.

    At the intensive margin temporary punishments tend to only vary in terms of length.

    Single period punishments can be effective at the extensive margin.Moreover, punishments can be targeted at individual rms and scaled to match the size of an initial deviation.

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    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Contested

    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    The Model

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    Multilateral Enforcement

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

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    Multilateral EnforcementIntroduction

    The Model

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    Multilateral Enforcement

    Multilateral enforcement requires a deviation to be punished by temporary reversion to the competitive equilibrium.

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    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

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    Multilateral EnforcementIntroduction

    The Model

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    Multilateral Enforcement

    Multilateral enforcement requires a deviation to be punished by temporary reversion to the competitive equilibrium.

    If at least one rm is present in another rms market, and at leastone rm is not present in every market, then all rms enter every market.

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    Margin

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Multilateral EnforcementIntroduction

    The Model

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    Multilateral Enforcement

    Multilateral enforcement requires a deviation to be punished by temporary reversion to the competitive equilibrium.

    If at least one rm is present in another rms market, and at leastone rm is not present in every market, then all rms enter every market.

    Otherwise all rms withdraw from every market belonging to a rivalplayer.

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    Margin

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    Multilateral Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    Gain in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    Gain in Period 2

    Loss in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    The Model

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    Heavy Handed Enforcement

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    q

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    The Model

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    Heavy Handed Enforcement

    The heavy-handed enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rmsindependently.

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    Margin

    q

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Heavy-Handed EnforcementIntroduction

    The Model

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    Heavy Handed Enforcement

    The heavy-handed enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rmsindependently.

    For each pair of rms {i, j }, if rm i is present in at least one of rm j s markets, and rms i and j are not present in all of each othersmarkets, then both rms enter all of each others markets.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Heavy-Handed EnforcementIntroduction

    The Model

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    Heavy Handed Enforcement

    The heavy-handed enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rmsindependently.

    For each pair of rms {i, j }, if rm i is present in at least one of rm j s markets, and rms i and j are not present in all of each othersmarkets, then both rms enter all of each others markets.

    Otherwise rms i and j withdraw from every market belonging to the other player.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Heavy Handed Response (t = 2)

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    Contested

    Heavy Handed Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    Gain in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

    Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 2

    Loss in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

    Proportional Response EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    p p

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Proportional Response EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

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    p p

    The proportional response enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rms independently as well as scaling punishments to the initial

    transgression.

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    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Proportional Response EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    p p

    The proportional response enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rms independently as well as scaling punishments to the initial

    transgression.

    For each pair of rms {i, j }, if rm i is present in at least one of rm j s markets, and rms i and j are not present in an equal number of each others markets, then the rm in the fewest of its rivals contestsenters additional contests sufcient to equalise cross participation.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Proportional Response EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    p p

    The proportional response enforcement mechanism treats each pair of rms independently as well as scaling punishments to the initial

    transgression.

    For each pair of rms {i, j }, if rm i is present in at least one of rm j s markets, and rms i and j are not present in an equal number of each others markets, then the rm in the fewest of its rivals contestsenters additional contests sufcient to equalise cross participation.

    Otherwise rms i and j withdraw from every market belonging to the other player.

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    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Proportional Response Response (t = 2)

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    Contested

    Proportional Response Response (t = 2)

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    Contested

    Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

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    Gain in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

    Tit-for-Tat Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 2

    Loss in Period 2

    Gain in Period 1

    Loss in Period 1

    Return to the Equilibrium Path (t > 2)

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    Contested

    Stability ConditionsIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Stability ConditionsIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Stability ConditionsIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    i

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    U i

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    Suppose that with some small probability a player makes a mistakeand enters too many markets in the participation stage. Supposefurther that this mistake is commonly observed.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    U t i t

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    Suppose that with some small probability a player makes a mistakeand enters too many markets in the participation stage. Supposefurther that this mistake is commonly observed.

    The expected cost to rms of a mistake is higher under heavy handed enforcement than under proportional response enforcement.It follows that proportional response enforcement is payoff dominant.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    U t i t

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    Suppose that with some small probability a player makes a mistakeand enters too many markets in the participation stage. Supposefurther that this mistake is commonly observed.

    The expected cost to rms of a mistake is higher under heavy handed enforcement than under proportional response enforcement.It follows that proportional response enforcement is payoff dominant.

    Multilateral enforcement may be stable where proportional response

    enforcement is not.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Uncer tainty and Tit-for-Tat EnforcementIntroductionThe Model

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    Uncertainty

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    Suppose that with some small probability a player makes a mistakeand enters too many markets in the participation stage. Supposefurther that this mistake is commonly observed.

    The expected cost to rms of a mistake is higher under heavy handed enforcement than under proportional response enforcement.It follows that proportional response enforcement is payoff dominant.

    Multilateral enforcement may be stable where proportional response

    enforcement is not.

    (Caveat: It is possible to design perverse systems of uncertainty where these results do not hold.)

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    Margin

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Predatory Entry

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    Predatory Entry

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    Natural Monopoly Market Natural Duopoly Market

    Firm 1 Firm 2Predatory Entry

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    Natural Monopoly Market Natural Duopoly Market

    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Gain in Period 1

    Initial Deviation (t = 1)

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    Gain in Period 1 Loss in Period 1

    Firm 1 Firm 2Response (t = 2)

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    Firm 1 Firm 2Response (t = 2)

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    Firm 1 Firm 2Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 2

    Firm 1 Firm 2Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 2

    Loss in Period 2

    Firm 1 Firm 2Response (t = 2)

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    Gain in Period 2

    Loss in Period 2 Loss in Period 2

    (1) (2) + m (2)

    Firm 1 Firm 2Return to the Equilibrium Path (t = 3)

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    12

    Firm 1 Firm 2Return to the Equilibrium Path (t = 3)

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    Stability ConditionsIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Stability ConditionsIntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

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    Implications for Anti-Trust Policy IntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Implications for Anti-Trust Policy IntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Participation across the set of markets may be easier to observe thana rms strategic behaviour within a market.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Implications for Anti-Trust Policy IntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Participation across the set of markets may be easier to observe thana rms strategic behaviour within a market.

    Collusion at the extensive margin can be implemented by a smaller

    group of managers than collusion at the intensive margin, helping toreduce the risk of detection.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Implications for Anti-Trust Policy IntroductionThe Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Participation across the set of markets may be easier to observe thana rms strategic behaviour within a market.

    Collusion at the extensive margin can be implemented by a smaller

    group of managers than collusion at the intensive margin, helping toreduce the risk of detection.

    A cartel may be able to avoid prosecution by aligning the boundariesof a collusive partition with the boundaries of anti-trust authority

    jurisdictions.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Implications for Anti-Trust Policy

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

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    Participation across the set of markets may be easier to observe thana rms strategic behaviour within a market.

    Collusion at the extensive margin can be implemented by a smaller

    group of managers than collusion at the intensive margin, helping toreduce the risk of detection.

    A cartel may be able to avoid prosecution by aligning the boundariesof a collusive partition with the boundaries of anti-trust authority

    jurisdictions.

    The theory provides new insights into where we may nd a collusiveagreement operating.

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Anti-Trust

    UnitingFrameworks

    Management Complicity in Multi-Market Collusion

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    Management Complicity in Multi-Market Collusion

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    Firm Level

    Vic

    WA SA

    Qld NT

    NSW

    Tas

    Management Complicity in Extensive MarginCollusion

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    Firm Level

    WA SANSW

    Management Complicity in Extensive MarginCollusion

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    Firm Level

    Monopoly Monopoly

    WA SANSW

    Management Complicity in Extensive MarginCollusion

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    Firm Level

    Monopoly Monopoly Competitive

    WA SANSW

    Management Complicity in Extensive MarginCollusion

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    Firm Level

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

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    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

    Firm 1 Firm 2

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    Firm 1 Firm 2

    Firm 3

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

    Firm 1 Firm 2

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    Firm 3

    ACCC

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

    Firm 1 Firm 2

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    Firm 3

    ACCCCompetitionBureau

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

    Firm 1 Firm 2

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    Firm 3

    ACCC

    CompetitionCommission

    CompetitionBureau

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

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    Firm 1

    CompetitionBureau

    Transnational Extensive Margin Collusion

    Firm 1 Firm 2

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    Firm 3

    ACCC

    CompetitionCommission

    CompetitionBureau

    Beer or Soft Drink Market

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    Beer or Soft Drink Market

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    Retail Sales

    Vending Machine Location B

    Beer or Soft Drink Market

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    Retail Sales

    Restaurant Chain A

    Restaurant Chain B

    Restaurant Chain C

    Bar A

    Bar B

    Sports Ground

    Entertainment Venue

    Vending Machine Location A

    Vending Machine Location B

    Vending Machine Location C

    Convenience Store A

    Convenience Store B

    Collusive FringeFirm 1 Firm 2

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    Retail Sales

    Restaurant Chain A

    Restaurant Chain B

    Restaurant Chain C

    Bar ABar B

    Sports Ground

    Entertainment Venue

    Vending Machine Location A

    Vending Machine Location B

    Vending Machine Location C

    Convenience Store A

    Convenience Store B

    Contested

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    Uniting Frameworks:Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive

    Margins

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    All MPEs are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of theunied framework.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    All MPEs are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of theunied framework.

    Consider a multi-market setting containing two identical, separable

    and symmetric markets and suppose that two rms collude utilisinggrim strategy enforcement.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    All MPEs are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of theunied framework.

    Consider a multi-market setting containing two identical, separable

    and symmetric markets and suppose that two rms collude utilisinggrim strategy enforcement.

    If the rms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they eachreceive C from each market while deviating nets a rm D.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    All MPEs are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of theunied framework.

    Consider a multi-market setting containing two identical, separable

    and symmetric markets and suppose that two rms collude utilisinggrim strategy enforcement.

    If the rms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they eachreceive C from each market while deviating nets a rm D.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    GS = (2)

    (1) (2)

    Relative Stability

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    All MPEs are sub-game perfect and therefore are equilibria of theunied framework.

    Consider a multi-market setting containing two identical, separable

    and symmetric markets and suppose that two rms collude utilisinggrim strategy enforcement.

    If the rms collude at the intensive margin of both markets they eachreceive C from each market while deviating nets a rm D.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    GS = (2)

    (1) (2) IM =

    D C

    D (2)

    Complementarities Between Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive Margins

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Complementarities Between Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive Margins

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Consider a multi-market setting containing three identical, separableand symmetric markets.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Complementarities Between Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive Margins

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Consider a multi-market setting containing three identical, separableand symmetric markets.

    Suppose that each rm acts as a monopolist in one market while

    colluding at the intensive margin of the third market. A deviation ispunished by permanent reversion to the oligopolistically competitiveequilibrium.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Complementarities Between Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive Margins

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Consider a multi-market setting containing three identical, separableand symmetric markets.

    Suppose that each rm acts as a monopolist in one market while

    colluding at the intensive margin of the third market. A deviation ispunished by permanent reversion to the oligopolistically competitiveequilibrium.

    A rm can either deviate in the participation or market stage but not

    both. Punishments are carried out across all markets

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Complementarities Between Collusion at the Intensive and Extensive Margins

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Consider a multi-market setting containing three identical, separableand symmetric markets.

    Suppose that each rm acts as a monopolist in one market while

    colluding at the intensive margin of the third market. A deviation ispunished by permanent reversion to the oligopolistically competitiveequilibrium.

    A rm can either deviate in the participation or market stage but not

    both. Punishments are carried out across all markets

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    crit < max { GS , IM }

    Length versus Breadth of Punishment

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Length versus Breadth of Punishment

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly one period.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Length versus Breadth of Punishment

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly one period.

    The strength of each punishment can be increased by increasing thelength of the punishment.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Length versus Breadth of Punishment

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    The temporary punishments set out in the paper persist for exactly one period.

    The strength of each punishment can be increased by increasing thelength of the punishment.

    Length and scope of punishment are substitutes.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Conclusion

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Conclusion

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    We develop the rst theoretical framework in which rms may collude by coordinating market participation to avoid coming intocontact.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Conclusion

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    We develop the rst theoretical framework in which rms may collude by coordinating market participation to avoid coming intocontact.

    Extensive margin collusion has a number of features that may make itattractive for a cartel.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Conclusion

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    We develop the rst theoretical framework in which rms may collude by coordinating market participation to avoid coming intocontact.

    Extensive margin collusion has a number of features that may make itattractive for a cartel.

    We provide the rst game theoretic foundation for proportionalresponse enforcement.

    Uniting

    Frameworks

    Collusion at the Extensive

    Margin

    Conclusion

    Introduction

    The Model

    Collusive Equilibria

    Uncertainty

    Anti-Trust

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    We develop the rst theoretical framework in which rms may collude by coordinating market participation to avoid coming intocontact.

    Extensive margin collusion has a number of features that may make itattractive for a cartel.

    We provide the rst game theoretic foundation for proportionalresponse enforcement.

    Uniting

    Frameworks


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