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Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro...

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Company update June 2017
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Page 1: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Company update

June 2017

Page 2: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

1

Contents

• Hellenic Petroleum Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Industry Update & Market Developments

• 1Q17 Results

• Appendix

Page 3: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

(1) Includes other activities (exploration and production) which was -€6m in 2016, -€2m in 2015 and -€7m in 2014.

(2) Includes 35% share of Adj. Net Income of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items. As per ‘Share of profit of investments in associates and JVs’ as reported in financial

statements.

Petrochemicals 13%

Marketing13%

Refining, Supply & Trading

74%

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

FYROM

Greece

Cyprus

Elefsina

Aspropyrgos

Thessaloniki

OKTA

Refinery

Marketing

Storage terminal

Company overview

Key financials FY16

€731m(1)

Refining, Supply & Trading

Marketing

3 refineries, 65% Greek market share (by capacity):

- Elefsina (100kbp/d, NCI 11.3)

- Aspropyrgos (148kbp/d, NCI 9.7)

- Thessaloniki (93kbp/d, NCI 6.9)

14.8MTmn of production in 2015 (c. 103% utilisation)

50-60% of sales exported

2014 2015 2016

Refining, Supply & Trading 253 561 536

Marketing 90 107 101

Petrochemicals 81 93 100

Other(1) -7 -2 -6

Total 417 758 731

Share of Adj. Net Income of

associates(2) 28 22 29

Domestic market

- 30% market share across retail, commercial, aviation and bunkering

- Total sales volume c. 3.5MTmn

- 1,739 service stations through marketing subsidiary (EKO and BP brand)

International market

- 300 service stations across Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and FYROM

- Total sales volume c. 1.2MTmn

Petrochemicals

220kt of polypropylene (PP) capacity vertically integrated with ELPE’s

refineries

>50% of domestic petrochemicals market share

60-65% of sales are exports

Sales €6,680m

Adj. EBITDA €731m

Net Debt €1,759m

Net Debt /

Adj. EBITDA2.4x

Paneuropean Oil

and Industrial

Holdings S.A.

Hellenic Republic

Asset Development

Fund

Free Float

Hellenic Petroleum ownership structure

45.5% 35.5% 19.0%

FY16 Adj. EBITDA

Key Business Areas Operational Footprint

Adj. EBITDA Breakdown (€m)

2

Page 4: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Key financials

€ million, IFRS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q17

Income Statement

Sales Volume (MT’000) - Refining 14,502 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538 14,258 15,618 4,009

Net Sales 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478 7,303 6,680 2,078

Segmental EBITDA

- Refining, Supply & Trading 338 259 345 57 253 561 536 190

- Petrochemicals 50 44 47 57 81 93 100 28

- Marketing 114 66 53 68 90 107 101 13

- Other (incl. E&P) -28 -6 0 -5 -7 -2 -6 -2

Adjusted EBITDA * 474 363 444 178 417 758 731 229

Adjusted associates’ share of profit 30 67 69 57 28 22 29 31

Adjusted Net Income * 213 140 229 -120 2 268 265 126

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

Capital Employed 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 2,870 2,913 3,903 4,039

Net Debt 1,659 1,687 1,855 1,689 1,140 1,122 1,759 1,783

Capital Expenditure (incl. refinery upgrades) 709 675 521 112 136 165 126 18

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items3

Page 5: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Refining, Supply & Trading economicsIntegrated supply chain management yields improved results

Trading

(sales premia)

Refining

(Med benchmark + performance)

Domestic market

8.5 MT

Exports, 3rd parties

7 MT

ELPE

Refining System

16 MT

NCI: 9.6

11%

89%

Low sulphur

High sulphur

55%

12%

25%

8%

Fuel Oil

Other

Gasoline

Middle Distillates

Marketing

(Cost +)

Domestic

3.5MT

International

2MT

Petchems

(Benchmark Pricing plus premia)

Domestic and international

Markets (PP + BOPP – 225kt)

4

Page 6: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

(1) Does not include OKTA sales which is mainly wholesale.

Source: Company information.

Montenegro

Serbia

Bulgaria

Greece

FYROM

Turkey

40

No. of petrol stations (2016)

54

86

1,739

94

Cyprus

Elefsina

Aspropyrgos

Thessaloniki

25

5

Marketing operationsLeading domestic market position and regional footprint increasing integrated route to market

4.637

4.070

3.361

2.971 3.052

3.494 3.538

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sales – Greek subsidiaries (‘000MT)

1.051 1.042 1.072 1.072 1.0791.178

1.129

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cyprus Bulgaria Serbia Montenegro

Sales – International marketing subsidiaries(1) (‘000MT)

€101m

International56%

Domestic 44%

2016 Adj. EBITDA

+6%

CAGR

OKTA

Page 7: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

272

228

952

52

Propane Propylene Polypropylene BOPP

PetrochemicalsOperations centred on utilising refining assets for higher value extraction; trading geared to

export markets

6

(1) as of FY16.

Source: Platts, Company information.

Overview

Production and marketing of Polypropylene (PP), BOPP Film, polymers and solvents through the further processing of refinery production

Vertical integration

85-90% of total production integrated using

propylene produced at Aspropyrgos

Best-in-class Polypropylene production technology

Lyondell Basell’s Spheripol technology

Competitive advantages

Margin contribution by product (€/T)(1)

Geographical diversification

>60% of sales exported to Turkey, Italy, Iberia and Eastern Mediterranean where petchems

are used as raw materials in the manufacturing industry and other applications

Strong domestic market share

Domestic market share in petchems > 50% in all products, produced or traded

Low exposure to refining margins

PP margins largely unrelated to refining margins

Domestic and

International market

Aspropyrgos

splitter

Thessaloniki

PP plant (220 kt)

PPPropane

Propylene

(polymer

grade)

BOPPBOPP film

plant (26 kt)

c.90%

c.10%

90%

Imports 10%

Petrochemicals value chain

Page 8: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

2013-18 Strategy UpdateUtilise strong refining and logistics asset base to consolidate position; cash flow for balance sheet

de-resking remains key priority

1

2

5

Rebalance market position and

de-risk business model

Strengthen financial position

3Continue competitiveness

improvement

4 Manage business portfolio for

value

Integrate and realise benefit of

investments

• Vertical integration

• Increased exports (50%)

• Operating KPIs

• Solomon benchmarks

• Gas & Power

• Exploration assets in Greece

• Capture positive refining cycles

• EBITDA €500-700m

STRATEGY TARGETS

• Business model and balance sheet de-

risking

• Cost of funding

7

Page 9: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

0

200

400

600

800

2020201920182017 2022

Credit Facilities - LiquidityStrong cash flow generation enables gross debt reduction; outstanding 8% notes fully repaid on 10

May; Group continuous to explore opportunities in DCM for cost and maturity profile optimization

Gross Debt overview (€m)

35%

1Q17* Term Credit Lines Maturity Profile (€m)

8

Debt Capital MarketsBanksEIB

20211Q17

2,866

FY15

3,231

-14%

1Q17*

2,771

EIB

Debt Capital Markets

Banks (uncommitted)

Banks (committed)

25%

30%

9%

36%

40%

25%

9%

25%

(*) Pro-forma for Eurobond 2017 repayment

Page 10: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Balance Sheet Strategy

9

• Current business model assumes Net Debt of €1.5-2.0 bn depending on prices

• Gearing ratio targets for monitoring and compliance purposes

• Net debt / Adj. EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5x(1)

• Target weighted average life of debt of > 3 years, with c.50% of net debt issued in capital markets

Funding1

• Maintain liquidity at c.20% of gross debt (depending on supply market conditions)

• Reduction of negative cost of carry

• Continue to utilise international banking structure for operational and risk management purposes

Liquidity2

• Recently upgraded refineries allow normalisation of capex to c. €100-150 m p.a.

• Proceeds from material divestments to reduce debtCapex/Divestments3

• €0,20/share proposed in FY16

• Plan to resume annual distribution in line with statutory framework and performanceDividends5

• De-risk working capital position and increase optionality

• Explore market opportunities to improve cash flows and optimise costs/impact of asset conversion

cycle (e.g. contango trades and securitisation)

Working capital4

(1) Proforma leverage excl. the carrying value of Investments in Associates from Net Debt.

Page 11: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Contents

• Hellenic Petroleum Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Industry Update & Market Developments

• 1Q17 Results

• Appendix

10

Page 12: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assetsDiversified asset base in two refining hubs, benefiting from system interconnectivity and global

LP optimisation vs. standalone/single refinery

Group refinery footprint and operating model

11

Aspropyrgos

148kbpd

93kbpd

Elefsina

100kbpd

Naphtha for

reforming

SRAR (1) & VGO (1)

for upgrading

Naphtha for

reforming

Thessaloniki

SRAR* for

upgrading

(1) SRAR (Straight Run Atmospheric Residue) and VGO (Vacuum Gas Oil) are intermediate products.

(2) Refined products output / crude feed capacity.

Source: Company information.

Note: CCR: Continuous Catalytic Reforming; FCC: Fluid Catalytic Cracking; FXC: Flexicoker; HC: Hydrocracking; VDU: Vacuum Distillation Unit.

Aspropyrgos

Elefsina

Thessaloniki

Refinery

System

Capacity(2)

(MTmpa / kbpd))

8.0 / 148

4.5 / 100

3.5 / 93

16.0 / 341

Latest

upgrade

2004

2012

2011

n/a

Next

maintenance

2018

2019

2020

n/a

Nelson

Complexity

Index (NCI)

9.7

11.3

6.9

9.6

HC

FCCHC

FXC

CCR

VDU

Page 13: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

10.9

8.4

High complexity interconnected refining system and logistics assetsConsistent benchmark overperformance supported by high complexity system with crude /

product flexibility and significant wholesale margin capacity

Consistent benchmark overperformance

$/bbl

(1) System benchmark calculated using actual crude feed weights.

(2) Includes wholesale trading premia and propylene contribution which is reported under Petchems.

Source: Company information.12

Sweet / sour crude (%)

67%57% 54% 56% 57% 56% 59%

69% 63% 56% 62% 68%

33%43% 46% 44% 43% 44% 41%

31% 37% 44% 38% 32%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

Sour Sweet

Sales breakdown (%)High value product yield (%)

53% 43%

36% 34% 34% 29%

26%

21% 20% 17% 17%

15%

21% 36%

44% 49% 49% 56%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Domestic Aviation & Bunkering Exports

14% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 13% 11% 14% 11% 13% 13%

51% 52% 53% 54% 54% 57% 52% 53% 49% 52% 52% 52%

24% 23% 24% 24% 23% 15% 22% 22% 24% 22% 21% 21%

5% 5% 5% 4% 5%3%

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%6% 7% 6% 8% 8% 15% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 9%

FO Middle Distillates Gasoline LPG Naphta/Other

ELPE realised margin(1) (2)

12.5 15.4 MTmn

8,0 7,5

10,2 10,2

12,3

8,3

11,8

9,510,2

8,6

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

Benchmark margin

Page 14: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

13

Improved crude supply optionality and supportive regional pricing dynamicsCoastal location and private port facilities allow crude supply optionality

Source: Platts, Company information.

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Recovery in Brent-Urals spread points to current

oversupply in the Med…($/bbl)

CPC25%

Iraq23%

Iran16%

Urals17%

Egypt10%

Saudi5%

Other2%

Import blends and countries of origin

Crude supply sourcing optionality

Black

Sea

Middle

East

North

Africa

Urals34%

Iraq28%

CPC20%

Egypt9%

Libya2%

Other7%

2015 2016

Page 15: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Assets strategically located for exports in diesel-short Med region…

Diesel / Gasoil surplus (2020) Diesel / Gasoil deficit (2020)

Source: KBC Advanced Technologies, Company information.

Key Diesel / Gasoil balances in the Med region, kb/d (2020)

14

Exports sales (MT ‘000)

2.377

4.501

5.518

6.5896.942

8.644

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% of

total

sales21% 36% 44% 49% 49%

Portugal Spain

Morocco Algeria

France

ItalyCroatia

Bosnia

Serbia

FYROM

Albania

Greece

Turkey

Cyprus

Syria

Lebanon

Libya

-51

-114 -69

-441 -35

-11

-13-12

-18-3

-260

-11+49

Israel+6

-162

Egypt

Slovenia

+79

56%

+73

+23

-8

+20

-37

Tunisia

-4 Montenegro

Page 16: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

11.413

10.1259.267

7.727

6.599 6.669 7.091 7.038

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Domestic market demand(1) (MT ‘000)Domestic market shares

…complementing a leading domestic business with performance leveraged to

Greek macro improvement

(1) Does not include PPC and armed forces.

Source: Ministry of Environment & Energy.15

+1%

+7%

-42%

HellenicPetroleum

c.65%

Other

Refining

(16MTmn of capacity)

Marketing

(3.5m MTmn of sales)

HellenicPetroleum

>30%

Other

-1%

Page 17: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

(1) Global benchmarking study conducted on a bi-annual basis; results displayed for C&S Europe (31 refineries).

Source: Company information.

16

ELPE positioning in Solomon Benchmarking(1) Group Headcount (FTE)

Improved operating performance and cost structure through 2008-2015

competitiveness improvement programsFavourable impact on KPIs with significantly improved efficiency and competitiveness

2010 2014

OperationalAvailability

Personnel Index (PI) Maintenance CostEfficiency Index

1st

quartile

2nd

quartile

4th

quartile

3rd

quartile

2010 2016

Domestic marketing opex

4.766

3.303

2010 2016

-31%-24%

Page 18: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

71%

731

Retail Petrochemicals Wholesalesupply,

logistics andoverperformance

Non-refiningmargin derived

EBITDA

Refining EBITDAat $4.5/bbl

LTM Adj.EBITDA

Diversified business model limits exposure to cyclical refining margins

LTM Adj. EBITDA breakdown (€m)

17

Source: Company information.

Note: The above is not intended to be representative of future performance.

USD/EUR exchange rate of 1.1245 as of 8 September 2016.

No / low dependency on gross refining margin

Key industry macro drivers for Group

EBITDA €m

• Illustrative change in EBITDA for a given change in either benchmark

margin or exchange rate

• Based on normal operations throughput of 100-110mmbbl (LTM) and

LTM price environment

-$1.0/bbl

-10c. FX EUR/USD (50)

(100)

50

100 +$1.0/bbl

+10c. FX EUR/USD

Page 19: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

56

16 13 12 931

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

73

25 22 32

91

31

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

18

(1) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items.

(2) Net interest paid as per the company’s cash flow statements.

Source: Company information.

Well-invested asset base with low capex requirements

€ million, IFRS 2015 2016

Adj. EBITDA(1) 758 731

Capex 165 126

Adj. EBITDA – Capex 593 605

Adj. EBITDA / Interest(2) 3.9x 3.8x

(Adj. EBITDA – Capex) / Interest(2) 3.1x 3.2x

Low capex requirements going forward

629

135 100–150

2009-2012Average

2013-2016Average

2017-2018Guidance

Ca

pe

x (

€m

)Last 5Y refinery capex (€m)

Aspropyrgos

Elefsina

Thessaloniki

520453

46 61 36 30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Refinery

SystemCumulative refinery capex over last 5 years: €1.6bn

(Elefsina and Thessaloniki upgrade projects: €911m)

High levels of refinery growth capex historically

• Transformational refinery upgrades completed leading to:

‒ Improved operating performance

‒ Lower capex going forward

Page 20: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Cash Flow ProfilePost upgrade cashflows support balance sheet improvement and increased returns with reduced

risk profile

Free cash flow – pro forma at mid-cycle economics excl. working capital movements (€m)

Free cash flow

for deleverage

and distribution

TaxInterestCapexEBITDA (pro-

forma run rate)

Benchmark margins & EUR/USD driven

(100-150)

(150-200)

200-400

600-800

(60-120)

19

Page 21: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Contents

• Hellenic Petroleum Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Industry Update & Market developments

• 1Q17 Results

• Appendix

20

Page 22: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Med regional crude supplyExcess supply of sour crude grades (Iraq production growth) leads to favourable crude spreads for

Med refiners; Iran return to the market affecting 2016 balances

21

Crude exports / supply to Med* (kbpd)

B-U spread ($/bbl)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Kirkuk CPC Siberian Light Urals (Novo) BTC Basrah (RHS)

(*) Total exports for Bashra; Med loadings for other grades

Page 23: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

European demand growth for refined productsStrong demand growth in 2015-16 especially for light-ends; Consumption in Europe also positive

after several years of contraction

22

European demand growth per product (%)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gasoline Distillate Others

Source: KBC estimates as of 18/05/2016

Europe fuels (mbpd)

14.714.514.214.414.615.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

201620152014201320122011

-3% -2% -1% +2%Growth 1%

Page 24: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17

FCC

Hydrocracking

Recent Industry developmentsImprovement in European refining environment mainly on supply dynamics

Med complex margins - $/bbl

Med FCC margins:

2.6

$/bbl

3.3 6.5

23(*) Data updated as of 28/05/2017

5.0

• Crude supply in the region, being the key driver of resilient margins, sustained despite following

OPEC decision

• Weak crude prices and stronger USD positive for refiners, despite one-off inventory impact

6.2

Page 25: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Contents

• Hellenic Petroleum Overview

• Investment Highlights

• Industry Update & Market developments

• 1Q17 Results

• Appendix

24

Page 26: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

1Q17 Key Highlights

25

Markets: Strong refining environment sustained

• Benchmark margins 3% up vs 1Q16; stronger USD supports core business profitability

• Higher crude oil leads to increased reported gains and affects working capital

• Increased domestic market demand, mainly driven by heating gasoil

Operations: Improved performance

• Increased over-performance vs benchmarks

• Production up by 11%

• Higher exports (+18%), accounting for 55% of total ex-refinery sales

• Exploration works in Greek assets in progress

Financial Results: Consistent delivery on results and cashflow

• 1Q17 Adj. EBITDA at €229m (+35%) Adj. Net Income at €126m (+80%):

• IFRS Net Income at €124m in 1Q17 (€32m LY)

• Positive operating cashflow with 1Q17 Adj. EBITDA – Capex at €211m

• Net Debt at €1.8bn, flat q-o-q, with D/E gearing at 0.8

Page 27: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

FY € million, IFRS 1Q

2016 2016 2017 Δ%

Income Statement

15,618 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 3,443 4,009 16%

4,668 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 995 1,201 21%

6,680 Net Sales 1,247 2,078 67%

Segmental EBITDA

536 - Refining, Supply & Trading 137 190 39%

100 - Petrochemicals 25 28 12%

101 - Marketing 12 13 15%

-6 - Other -4 -2 32%

731 Adjusted EBITDA * 169 229 35%

29 Share of operating profit of associates ** 9 31 -

551 Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) 129 215 67%

-201 Finance costs - net -48 -46 4%

265 Adjusted Net Income * 70 126 80%

836 IFRS Reported EBITDA 129 226 75%

329 IFRS Reported Net Income 32 124 -

Balance Sheet / Cash Flow

3,903 Capital Employed 4,321 4,039 -7%

1,759 Net Debt 2,504 1,783 -29%

126 Capital Expenditure 26 18 -30%

1Q17 Group Key Financials

(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items

(**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group adjusted for one-off items•26

IFRS Net Income (€m)

Adj. EBITDA (€m)

Refining sales volumes (m MT)

4.0

3.4

1Q16 1Q17

+16%

229

169

1Q17

+35%

1Q16

124

32

1Q16 1Q17

Page 28: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Product Cracks* ($/bbl)

Hydrocracking & FXC

Industry EnvironmentCrude spreads and record high FO crack resulted in improved benchmark margins for HELPE

refining system y-o-y

•27

Med benchmark margins** ($/bbl)

(*) Brent based.

(**) Revised benchmark margins set post-upgrades and secondary feedstock pricing adjustment

FCC

5.9

5.05.4

4.64.7

5.5

6.5

+8%

1Q1720164Q163Q162Q161Q162015

5.15.05.5

4.0

5.15.4

6.5

4Q163Q16

-7%

2015 1Q1720162Q161Q16

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17

$/bbl

Naphtha Gasoline ULSD HSFO

Page 29: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Domestic Market EnvironmentHGO led fuels demand higher on colder weather, with auto-fuels consumption marginally down

•28

(*) Does not include PPC and armed forces

Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy

Domestic Market demand* 1Q

(MT ‘000)

+11%

-5%

+1%

532 507

532 535

541

185197

599

1,838

1Q16

1,790

+3%

MOGAS

Diesel

HGO

LPG & Others

1Q17

Aviation & Bunkers demand* 1Q

(MT ‘000)

+4%

+35%

101 112

384

517

9995

+26%

Aviation

Bunkers Gasoil

Bunkers FO

1Q17

728

1Q16

580

+10%

+7%

Page 30: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

-3 -2

137

190

25

28

11

503

11

13

3

1Q16 Benchmark RefiningMargins

FX Sales volumes /Asset utilisation /operations, S&T

Others 1Q17

Causal Track & Segmental Results Overview 1Q17Improved refining operations, crude supply optimization and industry economics drive results

•29

Adjusted EBITDA causal track 1Q17 vs 1Q16 (€m)

229

169

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Refining,

S&T

MK

Chems

Other

(incl. E&P)

Environment Performance

Other

(incl. E&P)

ER 1Q16

Hydrocracker S/D

Sales: +0.56m MT

Page 31: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Contents

• Hellenic Petroleum post upgrade

• Investment Highlights

• Industry Update & Market developments

• 1Q17 Results

• Appendix

30

Page 32: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Assets overviewCore business around downstream assets with activities across the energy value chain

DESCRIPTION METRICS

• Exploration assets in Greece

• 50% (operator) in W.

Patraikos

• Exploration rights in 4

more areas

• Complex (recently upgraded) refining system:

– Aspropyrgos (FCC, 148kbpd)

– Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd)

– Thessaloniki (HS, 93kbpd)

• Pipeline fed refinery/terminal in FYROM

• Capacity: 16MT

• NCI: 9.6

• Market share: 65%

• Tankage: 7m M3

• Basel technology PP production (integrated with

refining) and trading

• > 60% exports in the Med basin

• Capacity (PP): 220 kt

• Leading position in all market channels (Retail,

Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering) through EKO and

HF (BP branded network)

• c.1,740 petrol stations

• >30% market share

• Sales volumes: 3.5MT

• Strong position in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia,

Bulgaria, FYROM

• Advantage on supply chain/vertical integration

• c.300 petrol stations

• Sales volumes: 1.1MT

• ELPEDISON: Second largest IPP in Greece (JV with

Edison/EdF)

• Capacity: 810 MW

(CCGT)

• DEPA/DESFA GROUP: 35% in Greece’s incumbent

NatGas supply company (DESFA in sale process)• Volumes (2016): 4.0bcm

Refining, Supply

& Trading

Exploration &

Production

Domestic

Marketing

International

Marketing

Petrochemicals

Power & Gas

31

Page 33: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Aviation &

Bunkering

C&I (Construction,

wholesale)

Retail

Greek petroleum market overview and route to marketLeading domestic market position through vertical integration and competitive logistics assets

3rd party

Imports

60-65% 30-35%

0-10%

Greek Refining capacity: 25MT

Domestic market: 11.5MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 3.5MT

(30%)

MOH Group

subsidiaries: 2MT

(20%)

Independent

marketing

companies: 4.5MT

(35%)

ELPE exports: 6-8MT

3rd party exports:

5MT

16MT

ELPE Group

subsidiaries: 1-2MT

8%

9%6%

20%

12%

24%

21%

Fuel Oil

Greek market product breakdown

Specialty markets

(PPC, public sector):

1.5MT (15%)

Gasoline

Diesel

GasoilJet

Bunkers

Other

32

Page 34: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Exploration & ProductionExploration activity focused on Greece

33

Patraikos Gulf (offshore)

• Hellenic Petroleum W. Patraikos 50% (operator)

• Edison International S.p.A 50%.

Major 3D double azimuth/2D seismic data acquisition

completed in February; processing ongoing

Sea of Thrace Concession (offshore)

• Hellenic Petroleum 25%,

• Calfrac Well Services 75%.

Prospective area surrounding the Prinos oilfield and

Kavala gas field

NW Peloponnese and Arta-Preveza Blocks (onshore)

Declared by the Ministry of Environment and Energy as

“Preferred Bidder”; Lease Agreement signed, expected to

be ratified by Ministry of Energy

Block 2 offshore W. Greece

Total 50% (operator), Hellenic Petroleum 25% and Edison International 25% awarded block, Lease agreement in final

form, expecting signing of agreement

Block 1 and Block 10 offshore W. Greece

Hellenic Petroleum has submitted bids for Block 1 and Block 10. Awarded rights for block 10

Page 35: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Power: second largest IPP in Greece; development of a renewable energy portfolio

Thisvi 420MW CCGT power plant

Consolidated as Associate

• Elpedison BV, is a 50/50 JV between Hellenic

Petroleum and Edison, Italy’s 2nd largest electricity

producer and gas distributor (EdF Group)

– Owns 75% of 810MW of installed CCGT capacity:

a 390MW plant in Thessaloniki and a 420MW in

Thisvi

– Increasing power trading & marketing, considering

credit exposure; 2nd largest independent supplier

• Energy market in Greece under restructuring; delays

in capacity certificates regulatory framework;

developments expected on current transitional regime

• Renewables portfolio target > 100MW (wind, PV,

biomass) subject to fiscal environment and market

developments

34

Page 36: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Gas: 35% participation in DEPA, Greece’s incumbent gas company

DEPA

– Long-term contracts on pipe gas (Russian & Azeri) and

capacity rights on two in-bound interconnecting pipelines

– Long-term contracts with power generators, eligible industrial

customers and existing EPAs

– Owns 51% of the local supply (EPAs) and distribution (EDAs)

companies, following unbundling

– International pipelines: Participation in Greece-Bulgaria

Interconnector

DESFA (RAB)

– Greece’s gas grid and LNG import terminal owner and

operator

– Owners reviewing strategic alternatives

DEPA snapshot financials (€m)2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 2014 2015* 2016

EBITDA 166 211 288 287 196 126 125 255

Net Income 61 91 191 197 147 83 66 128

* 2012 Adjusted for settlement with PPC; 2015 adjusted for settlement with BOTAS

Natural gas transmission network

DEPA Volumes 2009-2016 (bcm)

Consolidated as Associate

2015

3.0

2014

3.0

2013

3.8

2012

4.2

2011

4.3

2010

3.33.6

2009

35

2016

4.0

Page 37: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Glossary of Key Terms

Adjusted EBITDA Reported EBITDA adjusted by inventory effect (impact of the fluctuation of crude prices on BS inventories and on the

value of products sold during the related period) and other one-off non recurring items

ADO Auto Diesel Oil

CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

COMO Company Owned Manager Operated

DCM Debt Capital Markets

FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracking

HDC Hydrocracking

HGO Heating Gasoil

HS Hydroskimming

HSFO High Sulfur Fuel Oil

IPP Independent Power Producer

MOGAS Motor Gasoline

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

NatGas Natural Gas

Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) Index assessing the refinery conversion capacity by relating each processing unit capacity against the crude distillation

capacity and applying a weighting factor.

POIH Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings

PP Polypropylene

Solomon Complexity Index Compares the relative refining configuration apart from throughput capacity. It is the total of EDC (Equivalent Distillation

Capacity) divided by the sum of the crude unit stream-day capacities.

ULSD Ultra-low-sulphur Diesel

36

Page 38: Company update - helpe · 2017-06-09 · Marketing 13% Refining, Supply & Trading 74% Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria FYROM Greece Cyprus Elefsina Aspropyrgos Thessaloniki ... 2013-18

Disclaimer

Forward looking statements

Hellenic Petroleum do not in general publish forecasts regarding their future financial

results. The financial forecasts contained in this document are based on a series of

assumptions, which are subject to the occurrence of events that can neither be reasonably

foreseen by Hellenic Petroleum, nor are within Hellenic Petroleum's control. The said

forecasts represent management's estimates, and should be treated as mere estimates.

There is no certainty that the actual financial results of Hellenic Petroleum will be in line

with the forecasted ones.

In particular, the actual results may differ (even materially) from the forecasted ones due

to, among other reasons, changes in the financial conditions within Greece, fluctuations in

the prices of crude oil and oil products in general, as well as fluctuations in foreign

currencies rates, international petrochemicals prices, changes in supply and demand and

changes of weather conditions. Consequently, it should be stressed that Hellenic

Petroleum do not, and could not reasonably be expected to, provide any representation or

guarantee, with respect to the creditworthiness of the forecasts.

This presentation also contains certain financial information and key performance

indicators which are primarily focused at providing a “business” perspective and as a

consequence may not be presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting

Standards (IFRS).

37


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