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Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing Investor Presentation December 2019
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Page 1: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt RefinancingInvestor Presentation

December 2019

Page 2: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Outline

Executive Summary1

The Transaction Structure2

3

4

Amendment to the Programme5

At a Glance: “E.S.L.A.” & The Bond Market6

Summary of Financial Model Assumptions7

Summary of Financial Model Outputs8

Indicative Term Sheet9

Update on the “E.S.L.A.” Bond Programme

The Energy Sector Levy Act (“E.S.L.A.”)

Page 3: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Executive Summary

E.S.L.A. Plc is a public limited liability company established in 2017 as an independent Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)

primarily to issue debt securities to refinance the Energy Sector Debt. It was established by the Government of Ghana

acting through the Ministry of Finance, with the National Trust Holding Company (NTHC) as its sole nominee shareholder.

E.S.L.A. Plc is managed by KPMG as the Administrator.

In 2017, E.S.L.A. Plc successfully issued the first E.S.L.A. Bonds, Tranche E1 and Tranche E2 maturing in 2024 and 2027

respectively, and raising GHS 4.784 billion in total for the purpose indicated above. An additional GHS 880 million of

Tranche E2 was also raised in 2018. E.S.L.A. Plc has also issued Tranche E3, a GHS 1 billion 2029 maturity bond in 2019.

The Bonds are backed by the Energy Debt Recovery (EDR) Levy imposed under the Energy Sector Levy Act.

The current outstanding issuance is GHS 6 billion, representing a total issuance of GHS 6.664 billion, out of which GHS

664 million was redeemed in a buyback transaction financed with funds from the Lock Box account.

In the 2019 Mid-Year Budget Review, the Government of Ghana increased the EDRL for Petrol, Diesel, LPG and Marine

Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil

remained the same at GHp3 and GHp4 respectively.

E.S.L.A. Plc seeks the consent of bondholders to decrease the Debt Service Coverage Ratio from 2x to 1.25x under

Condition 12.3(c) of the Prospectus, in order to issue additional bonds to pay outstanding energy sector debts.

E.S.L.A. Bonds have seen satisfactory demand and liquidity. Data from the Central Securities Depository (September

2019) show that E.S.L.A. Bonds account for 6.26% of total bonds outstanding. The bondholder profile is as follows:

Domestic Investors, 99.51%; Offshore Investors, 0.49%. Domestic Investors include Banks 42.38%, Asset Managers

25.62%, Pensions 8.52%, Bank of Ghana Welfare 3.51%, SSNIT 3.18%, Insurance Companies 1.46% and Others

14.82%.

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The “E.S.L.A.” Bond Transaction Structure

Transaction structure is simple and straightforward with buffers built-in. SPV is totally ring fenced, no cash flows back to Sponsor until bonds are fully redeemed.

The Lock Box holds excess EDR Levy cash flows above the minimum debt service reserve amount.

Cash built up in Lock Box account can flow back to DSRA to meet any debt service shortfall.

MOF Capped Cash Commitment can be drawn on demand to support debt service funding shortfall, if any.

E.S.L.A. PLC repays energy sector lenders and suppliers directly with cash from bond proceeds.

Proceeds from Sales

of Petroleum

Products

EDRL

Payments

Debt Service Reserve Account (DSRA)

1.25x Cover

Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs)

(Issuer)

Energy Debt Recovery Levy

(EDRL)

Lock Box Account(excess flows above

DSRA minimum requirements)

Energy Sector Lenders and Suppliers

Minimum1.25x Debt Service Cover

Energy Bond

(Bondholders)

Debt Service Due

Proceeds ofEnergy Bond

Assignment of EDRL Flows by Government

Issues Energy Bonds

Capped MOF Commitment(GHS600mn)

Repayment of Energy Sector Debts

Excess cashflow above (or shortfall below) DSRA

Petroleum Product Consumers

Payable on

Demand

Page 5: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Total Issuance of GHS6.664 billion

Total Outstanding of GHS 6 billion

Update on the “E.S.L.A.” Programme

E.S.L.A. Plc was incorporated in September 2017 as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), sponsored by the Government of Ghana, to amongst others issue debt securities to refinance and repay energy sector debt.

Source: E.S.L.A Plc.

November

2017

7 Year Tranche (E1)GHS2.409 billionNovember 2017

10 Year Tranche (E2)

GHS2.375 billionNovember 2017

January

2018

Tap of 10 Year Tranche (E2- B)GHS615 millionJanuary 2018

August

2018

Tap of 10 Year Tranche (E2- C)GHS265 million

August 2018

June

2019

Buyback and cancellation of

2024s and 2027s totalling

GHS664 millionJune 2019

10 Year Tranche (E3)

GHS1 billionJune 2019

Page 6: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Update on the E.S.L.A. Programme

6,000.00

6,664.74

Investors by TypeE.S.L.A. Plc Bond Programme (GHS’ million)

Source: MOF, June 2019 E.S.L.A Management Accounts; CSD, September 2019

6,664.74

(664.74)6,000.00

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

Original Issue Buy Back Outstanding Amount

Bank of Ghana Welfare Fund

3.51%

Commercial Banks42.38%

Firms/Institutions25.62%

Insurance1.46%

Foreign Investors0.49%

Rural Banks0.02%

SSNIT3.18%

Pension8.52%

Others14.82%

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Energy Sector Levies Act (E.S.L.A.)

“E.S.L.A.” consolidates existing energy sector levies and redefines a framework to correct imbalances, promote financial viability of Energy Sector State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and facilitate investments into the sector. The levies imposed by the “E.S.L.A.” are derived from the sale of petrol, diesel, marine gas oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, and electricity within Ghana

Source: Energy Sector Levies (Amendment) Bill, 2017

No. Levy PurposeCollection

AgencyAccount Levy Components

1. EDR Levy To facilitate the debt recovery

of the TOR, downstream

petroleum sector foreign

exchange under-recoveries

and power generation and

infrastructure support

GRA 1. EDSA; and

2. PGISsA

Act 899

Ghp41/ltr on Petrol and

Diesel

Ghp3 /ltr on Marine Gas Oil

Ghp41 /ltr on Marine Gas Oil

– Foreign

Ghp4 /ltr on Fuel oil

Ghp37 /kg on LPG

Act 997

Ghp49/ltr on Petrol and

Diesel

Ghp3 /ltr on Marine Gas Oil –

Local

Ghp49 /ltr on Marine Gas Oil

– Foreign

Ghp4 /ltr on Fuel oil

Ghp41 /kg on LPG

2. Price Stabilisation

and Recovery Levy

To be used as a buffer for under-

recoveries or subsidies to stabilise

petroleum prices for consumers

NPA Price Stabilisation and

Recovery Levy

(“PSRL”)

Ghp12 per litre on Petrol

Ghp10 per litre on diesel

Ghp10 per kg on LPG

Ghp16 per litre on Petrol

Ghp14 per litre on diesel

Ghp14 per kg on LPG

3. Road Fund Levy To support road maintenance GRA Road Fund Ghp40 per litre on Petrol

Ghp40 per litre on diesel

Ghp48 per litre on Petrol

Ghp48 per litre on diesel

4. Energy Fund Levy To support the activities of the Energy

Commission as technical regulator

GRA Energy Commission

(“EC”)

Ghp1 per litre on Petrol

Ghp1 per litre on Diesel

Ghp1 per litre on Kerosene

Ghp1 per litre on Fuel Oil

5. Public Lighting

Levy

To support investment, maintenance and

payment of energy consumed by traffic

lights, street lights, public lights on

highways

ECG, NEDCo,

VRA and other

suppliers of

electricity

Ministry of Energy and

the Electricity

Distribution

Companies

3% per price of kWh charged on all categories of consumers

6. National

Electrification

Scheme Levy

To provide funding to support the

national electrification programme to

improve access to electricity across the

country

ECG, NEDCo,

VRA and other

suppliers of

electricity

National Electrification

Fund

2% per price of kWh charged on all categories of consumers

Page 8: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Energy Sector Levies Act (E.S.L.A.)

The “E.S.L.A.” (the Act), was passed into law in 2015 to address challenges in the energy sector, through collections made into the established “E.S.L.A.” accounts and other accounts. The Act underpins the EDR Levy, a levy on fuel sold to consumers at the pump to facilitate debt recovery, amongst others.

The Oil Marketing Companies (“OMCs”) who distribute the fuel are responsible for remitting the levies collected to Bank of Ghana (BoG) through the Ghana Revenue Authority’s (GRA) collection banks.

GHS 10 billion Bond Programme

Energy Debt Recovery Levy (EDRL)

Ghp49/ltr on Petrol and Diesel

Ghp3 /ltr on Marine Gas Oil (local)

GHp49/ltr on Marine Gas Oil (foreign)

Ghp4 /ltr on Fuel oil

Ghp41 /kg on LPG

Total EDR Levy collections in FY 2018 was GHS 1.35 billion

Programmed Collections

(P)

Actual Collections

(A)

Lodgement (L)

(A - P) %

(A/P) Change

(L-A) % Change

(L-A)

1Energy Debt Recovery Levy

1,765 1,614 1,600 (151) 91% (14) (0.88)%

2Price Stabilisation and Recovery levy

401 142 142 (259) 35% 0 0.00%

3 Public Lighting Levy 118 64 11 (54) 54% (53) (481.82)%

4National Electrification Scheme

157 88 70 (68) 56% (18) (25.71)%

5 Road Fund Levy 1,314 1,324 1,254 10 101% (70) (5.58)%

6 Energy Fund Levy 33 35 33 (2) 106% (2) (6.06)%

Total 3,788 3,267 3,110 (521) 86% (157) (5.05)%

Summary of “E.S.L.A.” levies’ audited collections for 2018 (GHS’ million)

Source: 2018 Annual Report on the E.S.L.A

100% of EDR Levy Assigned to the “E.S.L.A” Bond Programme

1,614

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Breakdown of the E.S.L.A. Collections

Source: 2018 Annual Report on the E.S.L.A

Composition of collections by products (GHS) (2018)

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

EDRL PSRL PLL NESL RFL EFL

2017 2018

2017/2018 “E.S.L.A” Collections (GHS’ billion)

41% 41%

3% 4%

37%

40% 40%

1% 1%

1%1%

12% 10%

10%

3%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Petrol (ppl) Diesel (ppl) MGO (ppl) Fuel Oil(ppl)

LPG (ppkg) Kerosine(ppl)

Electricity(ppkwh)

EDRL RFL EFL PSRL PLL NESL

Page 10: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Fuel Oil0.7%

Premium40.4%

Gas Oil41.4%

Gasoil Mines7.7%

Gasoil Rig2.6%

MGO Local0.6%

LPG (kg)6.5%

MGO foreign0.1%

Breakdown of the EDR Levy Collections

Source: MOF, NPA, Auditor General’s Office, EY Report

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Actuals Projected

EDR Levy collections as at September 2019 have exceeded full year collections for 2018. Collections efficiency on volumes declared is expected to be in the 90% area level, improving gradually since the inception of “E.S.L.A”, as escrow and reconciliation processes for the energy bond programme are better monitored.

Annual EDRL collections (actual and projections, billions)Jan – May 2019 EDRL Actual collection

volumes split

* 2019 actuals are annualized based on September figures

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Amendment to Bond Programme

Enhancement of EDR Levies to “E.S.L.A.” has necessitated changes to the “E.S.L.A.” Bond Programme Prospectus The Energy Sector Levy increments made by the Government of Ghana will increase inflows and enable “E.S.L.A.” Plc issue additional bonds

to pay down energy sector debt obligations

“E.S.L.A.” Plc will update the existing Prospectus dated 12 October 2017 (the Prospectus) by issuing a supplement to the Prospectus (theSupplement), to incorporate the proposed amendment which will be made available to bondholders.

The Supplement shall be supplemental to and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus. In the event of any conflict between theprovisions of the Prospectus and the provisions of the Supplement, the Supplement shall prevail.

The Supplement shall be reviewed and approved by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) in accordance with Section 3 of theSecurities Industries Act and SEC regulations and the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE).

“E.S.L.A.” Plc has no reason to believe that the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) required will not be met for the balance of the scheduled tenors of the outstanding bonds and the further indebtedness of borrowed money.

Proposed Amendment

Decrease the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

from 2x to 1.25x under Condition 12.3 (c)

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At a Glance: “E.S.L.A”. & The Bond Market

19.00%

19.50%

19.85%19.75%

19.00%

19.80%

18.4%

18.6%

18.8%

19.0%

19.2%

19.4%

19.6%

19.8%

20.0%

7 yr (2024) 10 yr (2027) 10 yr (2029)

ESLA GoG

18.90%19.50%

20.73%

20.10% 19.75% 20.10%

18.5%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

20.5%

21.0%

7 yr (2024) 10 yr (2027) 10 yr (2029)

ESLA GoG

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

7 Year (2024) 10 Year (2027) 10 Yr (2029)

2017 2018 2019*

Current Market Yields- E.S.L.A. vs GoGTrade Volumes of “E.S.L.A” (Oct’ 17- Sep’ 19, billions)

Security Coupons- E.S.L.A. vs GoG

*2019 figures represent trade volumes as at September, 2019

Source: CSD

*Yields shown are the latest yields traded by Oct’ 17th 2019

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At a Glance: “E.S.L.A.” & The Bond Market

41.07

12.81

5.48

0.58

6.08

00.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2 to 6 year 7- 10 year Above 10 year

GoG Coporate Firms

Corporate Bond Issuances- GHS’ billion (September 2019)Distribution of Securities Issued by GoG and Corporates

Source: CSD, September, 2019

6.00

0.67

E.S.L.A Bonds Other Corporate Bonds

Page 14: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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Summary of Financial Model Assumptions

Key Assumptions on Issuer’s Cash Flows

Petroleum Products Consumption Growth Rate (10 year CAGR)

Fuel oil 1.0%Premium 5.0%Gas oil 2.8%Gasoil Mines 8.0%Gasoil Rig 6.0%MGO Local -10.4%LPG 0.0%

MGO Foreign 5.0%EDRL Rate Levied Existing Levies New Levies

Fuel oil (GHS/ltr) 0.04 0.04Premium (GHS/ltr) 0.41 0.49Gas oil (GHS/ltr) 0.41 0.49Gasoil Mines (GHS/ltr) 0.41 0.49Gasoil Rig (GHS/ltr) 0.41 0.49MGO Local (GHS/ltr) 0.03 0.03LPG (GHS/kg) 0.37 0.41MGO Foreign (GHS/ltr) 0.41 0.49Expense and Efficiency Assumptions

Percentage of Realisable EDRL Flows 87.90%

WHT Rate for Gross-Up 8.00%

Annual Expense Reserve 0.50%

Minimum DSCR 1.25x

As E.S.L.A. Plc has successfully collected revenues over the last two years, a combination of historical actuals as well as projections from the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) have been used to forecast petroleum products’ consumption over a 10-year forecast period to 2029.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

DSCR Model Output (including MOF Capped Commitment) 2.46x 3.03x 2.38x 2.51x 2.93x 3.68x 4.50x 4.68x 12.05x 17.49x

DSCR Model Output (excluding MOF Capped Commitment) 1.99x 2.55x 2.07x 2.20x 2.59x 3.29x 4.09x 4.31x 11.21x 16.50x

Model DSCR Outputs on Outstanding GHS 6 Billion Bonds

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Summary of Financial Model Outputs

Debt Service Profile (millions)Debt Service Coverage Outputs

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029G

HS

Year

2029 (10-Year Maturity) Principal Amortisation

2027 (8-Year Maturity) Principal Amortisation

2024 (5-Year Maturity) Principal Amortisation

Total Coupon Payment

1.25x

2.46x3.03x

2.38x 2.51x2.93x

3.68x4.50x 4.68x

12.05x

17.49x

0.00x

5.00x

10.00x

15.00x

20.00x

25.00x

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Year

DSCR Required

DSCR Model Output (incl MOF Capped Commitment)

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16

Indicative Terms for Potential Issuance

E.S.L.A. Plc Cedi Bond Programme

Issuer E.S.L.A. Plc

Sponsor Republic of Ghana, acting through the Ministry of Finance

Programme Size GHS10 billion

Issuer/ Notes Rating Not rated

Total Size of Notes Amortizing Notes in the aggregate principal amount of up to GHS10,000,000,000

Minimum Denominations

GHS100,000 with integral multiples of GHS1,000

StatusSenior, unsecured Bonds backed by an Assignment of ESLA Receivables by the Sponsor to the Issuer under the Assignment Agreement dated 12th

October, 2017

Issue price 100.00 per cent of the principal amount of the notes

Issue Date TBD

Series TBD

Tenor 10 to 20 Years

Tranche Size 500,000,000 up to 4,000,000,000

Maturity Unless previously purchased and cancelled, the Notes will be repaid in a back end amortization as determined for each respective issuance.

Investors Eligible to domestic and foreign investors

Format Bond documentation as per GSE and SEC rules

Use of Proceeds Refinancing of Energy Sector debts and obligations

Governing Law English Law

Page 17: Consolidating Gains in Energy Sector Debt Refinancing · Gas Oil (Foreign) to GHp49, GHp49, GHp41 and GHp49 respectively, whereas Marine Gas Oil (Local) and Fuel Oil remained the

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