Creating Jobs Through Infrastructure Investment

National League of Cities

March 13, 2012

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SCAG Quick Facts

Ventura

Orange

Los Angele

s

San Bernardino

Riverside

Imperial

Nation’s largest Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) and Council of Governments (COG)

6 counties, 191 cities and over 18 million residents

Governed by a Regional Council of 84 local elected officials

15th largest economy in the world

9,000 lane miles of freeway

4 major airports

Nation’s global gateway for trade

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SCAG undertakes a variety of planning and policy initiatives to encourage a more

sustainable Southern California now and in the future.

Planning For The Future

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Regional Challenges

CONGESTION

AGING INFRASTRUCTURE

CLIMATE CHANGE

ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

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Our Vision for the Future of Southern California

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Mobility

Economy

Sustainability

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RTP/SCS Bottom-Up Development Process

Data gathering sessions & planning workshops in 2011

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Regional Council and Joint Policy Committee Meetingsin 2011

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Cities met withto update and develop land use and SED forecasts

175

Policy Committee and Subcommittee Meetingsin 2011, including CEHD, EEC, TC, RTP Subcommittee, High-Speed Rail Subcommittee

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Technical Committee Meetingsin 2011, including Aviation TAC, P&P TAC, Transit TAC, Subregional Coordinators, Transportation Conformity Working Group

406

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• Over $525 billion in investments to improve the SCAG region’s transportation system through 2035

• $263 billion in capital investments

• $217 billion in system operations, preservation, and maintenance

• $45 billion in debt service to advance construction of projects

What is included in the Plan?

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Highways

Capital: $72.3 bil

Gap ClosuresHOV networkHOT networkToll facilities

Provide access to hard-to-reach areas of the region

Highways

Capital: $22.1 bil

Signal prioritizationBicycle lanesOther design featuresLightingLandscapingParkingSidewalks

Arterials

O&M: $56.7 bil O&M: $20.9 bil

Image courtesy Metro © 2011 LACMTA

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Goods Movement

$47.9 billion

Port access

Freight rail capacity

Grade separations

Truck mobility improvements

Intermodal facilities

Emission reduction strategies

Grade Separations and Goods Movement

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Transportation Demand ManagementActive Transportation

$6 billion

Bikeways increase from4,615 to10,422 miles

Other strategies and safety improvements

Active Transportation

$4 billion

Reduce solo drivingIncentive carpooling, transit, biking, walking, flexible work schedules, telecommuting, First Mile/Last Mile strategies

TDM

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Transit and Passenger Rail

$49.7 billion

New BRT Light Rail Heavy Rail Busroutes, extensions, and service enhancements

Capital(Transit)

$51.6 billion

Metrolink extensions & speed improvements

LOSSAN speed improvements

California HST Phase 1

Capital(Passenger Rail)

Operations & Maintenance: $139.3 billion

Image courtesy Metrolink

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Land Use

Utilize local growth input

Compass Blueprint Demonstration projects

Emphasize growth in High-Quality Transit Opportunity Areas

Emphasize growth along main streets, downtowns and other appropriate locations

Shift development from single-family towards multi-family residential development to refl ect recent trends

Image courtesy MVE & Partners, Irvine, CA

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$524.7 billion (nominal dollars)

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What are the funding challenges and how are they addressed?

Core Federal$33.0 (6%)

Additional Federal$84.3 (16%)

Core State$46.8 (9%)

Additional State$83.2 (16%) Core Local

$225.5 (43%)

Additional Local$51.9 (10%)

Capital Projects$262.8 (50%)

Debt Ser-vice

$45.1 (9%)

O&M Highway$56.7 (11%)

O&M Transit$139.3 (27%)

O&M Local Roads

$20.9 (4%)

Revenues Expenditures

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Year TargetDraft 2012 RTP/SCS Results

2020 8% 8%

2035 13% 16%

Benefits of the Draft 2012-2035 RTP/SCS

State MandateSB 375 GHG Reduction

The Draft 2012 RTP/SCSmeets all air quality

conformity requirements,

including:Fiscal constraint

Pollutant budgets

Federal MandateAir Quality Conformity

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Economic and Job Creation Analysis

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• Economic Times required More Comprehensive Analysis of Impact and Benefits of Infrastructure Expenditures

• SCAG Retained Team of Leading Economists

o Wallace Walrod, Ph.D., Orange County Business Council

o Marlon Boarnet, Ph.D., University of Southern California

o Christine Cooper, Ph.D., LA Economic Development Corporation

o John Husing, Ph.D., Economics & Politics

• Team Used Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI Model) to assess impacts

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Economic and Job Creation Analysis

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• Components of Economic Analysis

o Cost/Benefit of Investments

o Economic Benefits of Construction Spending

o Economic Benefits of an Improved Transportation System

o Impacts of Fees

Cost/Benefit of Investments

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$2.90return for every $1

spent

Cost/Benefit Analysis

74%

22%4%

Travel Time Savings Veh. Op. Cost Savings Emission Cost Savings

Includes:

• Total 2012 RTP/SCS Cost in Constant Dollars

• Annualize Costs

• Translate into per day (365)

• Adjust for per capita (Average of 20 million)

2012–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Cost

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Cost is Less than

$2 per dayper capita

$4.16

$1.23$0.21

Travel Time Savings Veh. Op. Cost Savings Emission Cost Savings

2012–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Benefit

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Over

$5 per day

per capita

Summary of ResultsEmployment and Economic Benefits Types

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Construction

Network Benefits• Commuting• Accessibility• Transportation

174,500Annual Jobs

196,000-512,000

Mid-point Estimate 354,000

Annual Jobs

2121

Job Creation Benefits(Thousands of Average Annual Jobs)

 

2011-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

2026-2030

2031-2035

Annual Average

CONSTRUCTION 176 157 166 180 154 166

ALL NETWORK BENEFITS 21 71 263 543 852 354

AMENITY & OPERATIONS 17 40 65 88 108 64

Draft 2012-2035 RTP/SCS 214 268 494 811 1,114 584

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User Fee Impacts(Thousands of Average Annual Jobs)

New jobs and their resulting local, state and federal revenues not reflected

Impacts of revenue options with no reinvestment

 2011-2015

2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 Average

SALES TAX -34.1 -34 -34.2 -35.3 -35.7 -34.6

HIGHWAY TOLLS 0 0 0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1

FREIGHT FEE 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1

GAS TAX 0 -6.4 -5.4 -0.9 -1.6 -2.9

VMT FEE 0 0 -14.8 -72.9 -63.1 -29

All Revenue Options

-34.1 -40.4 -54.4 -109.6 -101.1 -66.8

Conclusion

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- Per Capita Cost is less than $2 per day - Per Capita Benefit is greater than $5 per day

Construction Benefits — 174,500 annual jobs

Network Benefits — 354,000 annual jobs

User Fee Impacts — 67,000 annual jobs

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View the Draft 2012-2035 RTP/SCS at

www.scagrtp.net

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