Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange 09 March 2013 TASI 6,999.53 Volume Value Trades Market Commentary Global market drifted higher The major US indices ended Friday’s session in p with the Dow Jones once again closing at a new r initial strength on the Wall Street came after bett expected job data had been released. Non-farm p employment rose by 236,000 jobs in February co market expectation of 171,000. Moreover, the un rate also dipped to 7.7 % in February from 7.9% i falling to its lowest level since December of 2008 European markets ended higher as investors reac positive trade data and an upbeat US jobs report. exports surged more than 20% in February on Y- despite the Lunar New Year holiday, showing ano recovery for the world’s second-largest economy. European stock markets had already posted shar Thursday after the ECB and Bank of England hel rates. TASI gains but remains a tad below 7,000 • TASI gained by 0.7% to end the session at 6,999 fifteen sectors ended the session in green. Banki Petrochemical sectors were the major gainers, r 0.9% respectively. Trading turnover grew by 5.6 Tuesday to SAR3.8bn on Wednesday. • Market breadth was positive as 100 stocks gaine stocks ended the session in red. Market heavywe and Al Rajhi gained 0.3% and 0.8% respectively • On a weekly basis, Kuwait and Bahrain were the among the GCC markets rising 1.7% and 0.9% re while TASI remained unchanged. Outlook We expect TASI to open on a positive note, amid global markets. Technically too, the index is look with immediate resistance of 7,025. GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD% Saudi Arabia 6,999.5 0.7 0.0 Qatar 8,506.2 0.1 -0.3 Dubai 1,882.1 0.4 -2.3 Abu Dhabi 2,970.6 -1.0 -2.4 Kuwait 6,574.8 0.3 1.7 Oman 5,993.4 -0.1 0.3 Bahrain 1,099.8 0.2 0.9 Global Indices Performance Close 1D% DJ Industrial 14397.07 0.5 S&P 500 1551.18 0.4 Nikkei 225 12283.62 2.6 Hang Seng 23091.95 1.4 FTSE 100 6483.58 0.7 CAC 40 3840.15 1.2 0.67% 155.8mn Tel: +966 1 SAR3,832.1mn 89,222 TASI Intra-day Movement positive territory record high. The ter than payroll ompared to nemployment in January, 8. Major cted on China’s . China’s -o-Y basis other sign of . Moreover, the rp gains on ld their key 9.5. All of the ing and rising 0.4% and 6% from ed, while only 31 eight SABIC y. e major gainers espectively, strength in king positive, Source: Bloomberg Saudi Market Indices Index Close C Tadawul All Share Index 6,999.5 Banks & Financial Services 15,112.9 Petrochemical Industries 5,986.0 Cement 6,279.8 Retail 7,760.8 Energy & Utilities 4,924.9 Agriculture & Food Ind. 6,708.9 Telecom & IT 2,281.1 Insurance 1,232.6 Multi-Investment 3,627.8 Industrial Investment 6,466.3 Building & Construction 2,924.9 Real Estate Development 3,541.8 Transport 5,080.8 Media and Publishing 2,946.3 Hotel & Tourism 9,462.9 Source: Tadawul MTD% YTD% Value Traded (USD mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. (USD mn) 0.0 2.9 1,021.6 382,458.9 -0.3 1.8 50.0 100,146.8 -2.3 16.0 55.0 37,374.0 -2.4 12.9 64.9 78,569.2 1.7 10.8 191.5 104,415.9 0.3 4.0 12.2 16,053.9 0.9 3.2 0.4 15,804.2 6,952 6,967 6,982 6,997 11:00 12:00 13:00 WTD % YTD% Asset/Currency Performance C 2.2 9.9 Gold(US$) 1,57 2.2 8.8 Silver(US$) 2 5.8 18.2 Crude Oil (Brent)(US$) 11 0.9 1.9 Euro(US$) 1.6 9.9 USD Index 8 3.8 5.5 JPY(US$) 9 Research Department [email protected]1 2119319/ Fax: +966 1 2119422 Change (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) 0.7 0.0 2.9 0.4 -1.7 3.2 0.9 1.2 2.2 0.4 0.5 3.6 0.6 1.0 3.4 0.3 0.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 1.8 1.3 2.0 5.4 0.3 -0.1 -9.5 0.2 -1.2 -1.9 0.2 0.1 2.4 0.5 -0.7 3.7 0.8 -0.6 5.9 0.2 -0.1 4.4 1.7 2.5 1.3 1.8 -0.9 30.5 P/E P/B Dividend Yield% 14.7 1.8 3.6 11.1 1.6 4.7 12.2 0.8 3.5 9.2 1.1 5.2 27.3 1.2 2.8 10.9 1.5 4.2 10.2 0.8 3.9 14:00 15:00 Close 1D% WTD% YTD% 78.80 0.0 0.2 -5.8 28.99 0.3 1.4 -4.5 11.97 0.0 0.5 -0.8 1.30 -0.8 -0.1 -1.4 82.70 0.7 0.5 3.7 96.00 1.2 2.6 10.7
Transcript
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
TASI 6,999.53
Volume
Value
Trades
Market Commentary
Global market drifted higher
The major US indices ended Friday’s session in positive territorywith the Dow Jones once again closing at a new record highinitial strength on the Wall Street came after bettexpected job data had been released. Non-farm payroll employment rose by 236,000 jobs in February compared to market expectation of 171,000. Moreover, the unemployment rate also dipped to 7.7 % in February from 7.9% in January, falling to its lowest level since December of 2008.European markets ended higher as investors reacted on positive trade data and an upbeat US jobs report. exports surged more than 20% in February on Y-despite the Lunar New Year holiday, showing anorecovery for the world’s second-largest economy.European stock markets had already posted sharp gains on Thursday after the ECB and Bank of England held their key rates.
TASI gains but remains a tad below 7,000
• TASI gained by 0.7% to end the session at 6,999fifteen sectors ended the session in green. BankingPetrochemical sectors were the major gainers, rising0.9% respectively. Trading turnover grew by 5.6Tuesday to SAR3.8bn on Wednesday.
• Market breadth was positive as 100 stocks gained, while only 3stocks ended the session in red. Market heavyweight SABIC and Al Rajhi gained 0.3% and 0.8% respectively
• On a weekly basis, Kuwait and Bahrain were the major gainers among the GCC markets rising 1.7% and 0.9% respectivelywhile TASI remained unchanged.
Outlook
We expect TASI to open on a positive note, amid
global markets. Technically too, the index is looking
with immediate resistance of 7,025.
GCC Indices Close 1D% WTD%
Saudi Arabia 6,999.5 0.7 0.0
Qatar 8,506.2 0.1 -0.3
Dubai 1,882.1 0.4 -2.3
Abu Dhabi 2,970.6 -1.0 -2.4
Kuwait 6,574.8 0.3 1.7
Oman 5,993.4 -0.1 0.3
Bahrain 1,099.8 0.2 0.9
Global Indices Performance Close 1D%
DJ Industrial 14397.07 0.5
S&P 500 1551.18 0.4
Nikkei 225 12283.62 2.6
Hang Seng 23091.95 1.4
FTSE 100 6483.58 0.7
CAC 40 3840.15 1.2
0.67%
155.8mn
Tel: +966 1 2119319
SAR3,832.1mn
89,222
TASI Intra-day Movement
in positive territory a new record high. The
better than farm payroll
employment rose by 236,000 jobs in February compared to unemployment
in January, el since December of 2008. Major
reacted on China’s . China’s -o-Y basis
another sign of largest economy. Moreover, the
European stock markets had already posted sharp gains on Thursday after the ECB and Bank of England held their key
Stocks Closest to Resistance Stocks Closest to Support
Company Closing Price
(SAR) R1 R2 PP Company
Closing Price (SAR)
S1 S2 PP
SAFCO 155.00 155.17 155.33 154.83
Abdullah A.M. Al-Khodari Sons Co. 25.00 24.97 24.93 25.03
Jarir Marketing Co. 154.75 154.92 155.08 154.58
Abdullah Al Othaim Markets 81.50 81.42 81.33 81.58
Tabuk Cement 24.30 24.33 24.37 24.27
Taiba Holding Co. 23.50 23.47 23.43 23.53
Riyad Bank 23.35 23.38 23.42 23.32 United International
Transportation Co. 57.25 57.17 57.08 57.33
Saudi Chemical Co. 41.80 41.87 41.93 41.83 Makkah Construction and
Development Co. 41.00 40.93 40.87 41.07
Southern Province Cement Co. 103.75 103.92 104.08 103.83
Fitaihi Holding Group 15.10 15.07 15.03 15.13
Saudi Arabian Mining Co-Ma'aden 33.40 33.47 33.53 33.33
Co for Cooperative Insurance 43.00 42.90 42.80 43.00
Saudi Advanced Industries Co. 14.85 14.88 14.92 14.82
National Shipping Co of Saudi Arabia 20.60 20.55 20.50 20.65
National Industrialization Co. 29.00 29.07 29.13 28.93
Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipe Co Ltd 67.00 66.83 66.67 67.17
Source: Tadawul
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
` 4
Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook SABIC
SABIC gained marginally as
the stock remained above its
12-day moving average
(SAR92.35). However, the
gains were limited as the
stock failed to breach its
horizontal resistance of
SAR93.0 and declined to end
its session below its 21-day
moving average. However,
the RSI is in rising mode and
is pointing upwards, while
the MACD line is about to
make positive crossover. We
expect SABIC to gain
further, if it moves above its
resistance of SAR93.0.
Conversely, failure of this
resistance level would
increase selling pressure in
the stock.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
93.50 93.00 92.75 92.25 92.00
Saudi Basic Industries Corp.
Technical Outlook STC
STC gained on Wednesday,
as the stock breached its
immediate horizontal
resistance of SAR39.90.
Moreover, the stock has also
moved above its 12-day
moving average (SAR40.07).
However, the gains were
limited as the stock failed to
breach its 21-day moving
average (SAR40.16).
Moreover, the RSI is rising
and is pointing upwards,
while the MACD line is
diverging away from the
signal line. We expect STC to
gain further, if it decisively
breaches its 21-day moving
average on a closing basis.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
40.43 40.27 40.03 39.87 39.63
Saudi Telecom Co.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
` 5
Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook Al Rajhi
Al Rajhi gained marginally
on Wednesday, as the stock
remained above its
horizontal support of
SAR65.0. However, the gains
were limited as the stock
failed to move above its
immediate resistance of
SAR66.50. Moreover, the
RSI is making lower tops,
while the MACD line is
diverging away from the
signal line on the downside.
We expect Al Rajhi to decline
further, if it remains below
its resistance of SAR66.50.
Yet, a move above this
resistance level would attract
buying interest in the stock.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
66.83 66.67 66.33 66.17 65.83
Al Rajhi Bank
Technical Outlook KAYAN
Kayan gained, as the stock
remained above its
horizontal support of 52-
week low (SAR11.20).
However, the gains were
limited as the stock failed to
move above its horizontal
resistance of SAR11.40.
Moreover, 12-day moving
average (SAR11.40) is also
acting as a crucial resistance
for the stock. The RSI is
making higher tops and
breached its over-sold zone,
while the MACD line is
oscillating around signal
line. We expect Kayan to
gain further, if it decisively
breaches its 12-day moving
average on closing basis.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
11.45 11.40 11.35 11.30 11.25
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
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Tadawul Technical Watch
Technical Outlook MA’ADEN
MA’ADEN remained
unchanged on Wednesday,
as the stock failed to breach
its 55-day moving average
(SAR33.45) on a closing
basis. Moreover, both the
indicators RSI and MACD
are in consolidation mode,
thus not presenting any clear
picture about its next move.
However, we expect
MA’ADEN to gain further, if
it moves above its 55-day
moving average.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
33.53 33.47 33.33 33.27 33.13
Saudi Arabian Mining Co.
Major GCC Companies
Technical Outlook EMAAR – Dubai Financial Market
Emaar gained as the stock
remained above its
immediate horizontal
support of AED5.35. The
RSI is stalling near its over-
bough zone, while the MACD
line is indicating
consolidation in the stock.
We expect Emaar to
consolidate further, if it
remains above its support of
AED5.35. However, a decline
below this support level with
significant volume would be
decisive for its near-term
outlook.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
5.47 5.43 5.39 5.35 5.31
Emaar Properties
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
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GCC Technical Watch
Technical Outlook ARTC
Arabtec gained on Thursday,
as the stock broke its seven-
days losing streak and
attracted buying interest
near its support of 52-week
low (AED1.99). However, the
stock declined in early trade
but witnessed buying
interest that pushed the
stock to end its session at
day’s high price, indicating
further strength in price
movement. Moreover, both
the indicators are in
rebounding stage thus
supporting our bullish
stance. We expect Arabtec to
witness more buying
interest, if it moves above its
resistance of AED2.15.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
2.19 2.16 2.08 2.05 1.97
Arabtec Holding Co.
Technical Outlook DANA
Dana Gas declined as the
stock moved below its
horizontal support of
AED0.48. Moreover, the RSI
is making lower tops, while
the MACD line is diverging
away from signal line on the
downside, indicating further
weakness in the stock. We
expect Dana Gas to decline
further, if it remains below
its resistance of AED0.48.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46
Dana Gas
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
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GCC Technical Watch
Technical Outlook IQCD
Industries Qatar gained as
the stock remained above its
horizontal support of
QR168.50. However, the
gains were limited as the
stock failed to move above
its 21-day moving average
(QR169.79). Moreover both
the indicators are
consolidating, thus signaling
further sideways movement
in the stock. We expect
Industries Qatar to continue
with its sideways movement,
if it remains below its near-
term resistance of QR170.80.
However a move below its
support of QR168.50 would
increase selling pressure in
the stock.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
170.10 169.70 169.10 168.70 168.10
Industries Qatar
Technical Outlook KFIN
Kuwait Finance declined on
Thursday, as the stock failed
to move above its 12-day
moving average (KD816.32)
and declined to end its
session near its day’s open
price. Moreover, the stock
continued to trade within its
rectangular chart pattern
KD810.0 – KD830.0. Both
the indicators are in
consolidation mode, thus not
presenting any clear
indication about its next
move. We expect Kuwait
finance to consolidate
further, if it continues to
trade between its rectangular
chart pattern. However, the
breach of these levels on
either side would be decisive
for its near-term outlook.
R2 R1 PP S1 S2
823.33 816.67 813.33 806.67 803.33
Kuwait Finance House
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
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Definition - Technical Indicators
Candlestick Patterns, Doji
Doji is a form of candlestick pattern. It normally suggests major up and down movements. Trading above the Doji is positive for the market. Trading below the Doji value
indicates bearish momentum.
Hammer
A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. This indicates a bullish pattern during a downtrend.
Inverse-black-hammer: A bottom reversal signal with confirmation the next trading day.
Moving Average, SMA (Simple Moving Average)
Normally we use the 10, 20, 50 and 125 day SMA to identify the trend. A cross-over of the short-term moving average with the long-term moving average is positive for
the market. The reverse is the case on the negative side.
DEMA - Double-smoothed Exponential Moving Average
We use the 10, 20 and 40 DEMA to identify a trend. A cross-over of the 10 and 20 DEMA gives a positive indication. A cross-over of the 20 and 10 DEMA gives a negative
indication. As long as a stock or index trades above the 40 DEMA, this gives a positive indication for the stock or index. Trading below the 40 DEMA may create downside
for a short time.
MACD - Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
The MACD has its own line period and another signal line; the dotted line indicates the signal line. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above
it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
RSI - Relative Strength Index
When the RSI remains below 30, it indicates that a market or stock is in oversold territory. When the RSI is above 70, it indicates that the market/stock is in an
overbought level.
Price ROC
When the Price ROC is above zero it gives positive signals for an index or stock. When the price ROC is below zero, it gives a negative signal for the index or stock.
Stochastic Oscillators
When Stochastic Oscillators are below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone and some bounce back is expected. When Stochastic Oscillators are above zero, the stock is in
an overbought zone and some correction is expected.
Williams’ %R
When Williams’ %R is above zero, the stock is in an overbought zone and some correction is expected. When Williams’ %R is below zero, the stock is in an oversold zone
and some bounce back is expected.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
While the CCI was originally designed for commodities, the indicator also works very well with stocks and mutual funds.
There are two methods of interpreting the CCI:
1. Looking for divergences: A popular method of analyzing the CCI is to look for divergences in which the underlying security is making new highs while the CCI is failing
to surpass its previous highs. This classic divergence is usually followed by a correction in the security's price.
2. As an overbought/oversold indicator: The CCI usually oscillates between +/-100. Readings outside these ranges imply an overbought/oversold condition.
Fibonacci Retracements
Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trend line that we draw between a significant trough and peak. If the trend line is rising, the retracement lines will project
downward; if the trend line is falling, the retracement lines will project upward. The number of Fibonacci Retracement levels appearing on the chart depends on the
range of the y-axis. If we want to see all nine retracement levels, we may need to manually adjust the minimum and maximum values of the y-axis. Major Fibonacci
Levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
Whipsaw
A whipsaw is a situation in which a share price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. The origin of the term is the
push and pull action used by lumberjacks to cut wood with a type of saw of the same name.
Gravestone Doji
In a Japanese Candle Stick chart, this is a Doji candle where prices rallied but came back and closed at the level they started; the open and close are equal.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
` 10
Inside Bar
An inside bar is a bar, which is completely within the range of the preceding bar, i.e. it has a higher low and lower high than the bar immediately before it. An inside bar
indicates a time of indecision or consolidation. On a smaller time frame, it will look like a triangle. Inside bars often occur at tops and bottoms, in continuation flags, and
at key decision points like major support/resistance levels and consolidation breakouts.
Big Bar
A big bar is a bar, which is bigger than the preceding bar, i.e. it has a lower low and higher high than the bar immediately before it. Normally, after, forming a big bar, for
a coming few sessions, the stock may move in the range of the high and low of the big bar. Breaking out or breaking down will give a fresh bullish or bearish pattern.
Higher High
This implies that today’s intra-day high is higher than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).
Lower High
This implies that today’s intra-day high is lower than the intra-day high(s) of the previous session(s).
Higher Low
This implies that today’s intra-day low is higher than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).
Lower Low
This implies that today’s intra-day low is lower than the intra-day low(s) of the previous session(s).
Triangle
This is a technical analysis pattern created by drawing trend lines along a price range that gets narrower over time because of lower tops and higher bottoms. Variations
of a triangle include ascending and descending triangles. Technical analysts see a breakout of this triangular pattern as either bullish (on a breakout above the upper line)
or bearish (on a breakout below the lower line).
Standard Error Channel
Parallel lines drawn higher and lower from the Linear Regression Trend-line form Standard Error Channels. The distance at which they are traced is a certain
number of standard errors over or above the linear regression trend-line. The characteristic of the price fluctuations is its movement from one extreme to another and it
depends on the traders' common opinion. Prices trend up in the optimistic market whether a pessimistic one causes prices reduction. The prices are drawn to a certain
equilibrium point existing for each issue. The location of such point can be found out by using the Linear Regression analysis whether Standard Error Channel analysis
presents the data about the cyclic direction of the prices as well as the forecasts for possible trend changes.
Long Headed Doji Pattern
This is a bullish signal, particularly when around price support levels.
Double Tops / Double Bottoms
A double top is simply two peaks. After the second peak is formed a breakout through the base is a signal of a possible reversal of the trend in prices. In the case of a
double bottom, two troughs form and an expectation follow for the possibility of a trend reversal if the market price rises through the base. Waiting for confirmation is
important for trading double tops or double bottoms.
Daily Market Report Saudi Arabia Stock Exchange
09 March 2013
` 11
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