Deal on Iran's Nuclear Program

FUTURE DYNAMICS AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Authors: Shahzad Masood Roomi

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Its almost impossible for any expert to predict for the rapid changes we see in the Mid-dle East. They are rapid and they will continue for quite a while.

King Abdullah II

The interim deal between P5+1 (the United States, Unit-ed Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China) and Iran, signed in November, is a major development, in already complex geopolitics of Middle East with a potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region. The deal is being considered a step towards peace and stability as it has worn off the threat of an imminent military action against Iranian nuclear instal-lation, at least for next six months. Iranian spiritual leader and high council also have approved the deal. All the regional countries, except Israel and Saudi Arabia, have welcomed the deal. Islamabad also considers these developments satisfactory for regional stability and its own interests which are well connected with Iranian stability. But the said deal is copiously enfolded by complex questions. Answers to these questions are critical to assess if this deal is even practical or not in long run and if it is then to what extent this deal will affect the regional geopolitical dynamics of the region? What the deal means for Iranian nuclear aspirations and regional peace? What are the odds of regional instability or another military conflict in Middle East if it fails after initial six month agreement? Along with these questions, there exists a mist of confusion over the American and Iranian versions of the actual deal. According to Iranian version, Iran has and would continue to have a right to maintain a peaceful enrichment program allowed under NPT control regime. On the other hand, according to immediate release from the office of press secretary of White House, the P5+1 and Iran reached a set of initial understandings that halts the progress of Irans nuclear program and rolls it back in key respects. White House tried to sell the deal as a step forward in efforts to rollback Tehrans nuclear program completely but the text of the deal says that the final agreement will involve a a mutually defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters . This paints a very different picture, once again, vindicating Tehrans point of view. The panic is palpable within the US congress over this provision of the interim deal and Obama ad-ministration had to face some tough questions from various US lawmakers. All these issues have made follow up negotiations much more complex than what every party had expected initially.

Deal on Irans Nuclear ProgramFUTURE DYNAMICS AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Shahzad Masood Roomi

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As far as possible future discourse of talks over Tehrans nuclear program after the interim deal is concerned, there are four possible scenarios that could emerge depending upon how each party moves forward;

1. Both Parties would honor the interim agreement and would reach a comprehensive deal after six months. This will end Irans prolonged isolation in global economics and politics. Iran will end its nuclear program peacefully and would continue to protect its national interests in the region through its soft-power and other non-kinetic means. American would establish warmer relations with Tehran.

2. Iran would not be able to meet the own commitments of Interim deal and would eventually break off putting the entire negotiation process to an end. Americans would use Iranian inability to meet the com-mitments made in interim deal as an excuse to impose more harsh sanctions and threat of military conflict would continue to lurk around as well. Threat of Iran-Israel conflict would be more imminent.

3. Americans have lured Iran in a deal that they knew Tehran would not able to meet. It will provide an opportunity to hawkish Neocon and Israeli lobbies and interest groups in the US to launch campaign for a direct military attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

4. Iran, after showing years of defiance against the US pressure, has played a master stroke as the US Empire is crumbling after a colossal military failure in Afghanistan and economic failure at home. Iran has secured the long term strategic goal of enrich uranium after giving short term concessions to the US.

Amid convoluted and volatile geopolitics of the region nothing can be said with certainty as far as the future out-come of the deal is concerned but to make an initial assessment about the viability of the deal in long run and its potential implications on the region including Pakistan, the deal will has to be analyzed in context of the long term US and Iranian strategic policy goals in the region. In order to get the glimpse of larger picture, inclusion of geopolitical history of Iran-US relations in this analysis obviously becomes a critical imperative. But before doing that, lets take a closer look at the text of the deal to put the debate on this deal in a broader and clearer perspective.

Interim deal on Irans nuclear program was reached after prolonged negotiation in November 2013

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THE DEAL: WHAT IRAN AGREED TO LOSE?

According to White House website below are the main steps that Iran has agreed to take, in order to halting the progress of its nuclear program and rolling back its key elements

Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5%: Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%.

Iran has committed to neutralize its stockpile of near-20% uranium: Dilute below 5% or convert to a form not suitable for further enrichment its entire stockpile of near-

20% enriched uranium before the end of the initial phase.

Iran has committed to halt progress on its enrichment capacity: Not install additional centrifuges of any type.

Not install or use any next-generation centrifuges to enrich uranium.

Leave inoperable roughly half of installed centrifuges at Natanz and three-quarters of installed cen-trifuges at Fordow, so they cannot be used to enrich uranium.

Limit its centrifuge production to those needed to replace damaged machines, so Iran cannot use the six months to stockpile centrifuges.

Not construct additional enrichment facilities.Iran has committed to halt progress on the growth of its 3.5% stockpile:

Not to increase its stockpile of 3.5% low enriched uranium, so that the amount is not greater at the end of the six months than it is at the beginning, and any newly enriched 3.5% enriched uranium is converted into oxide.

Iran has committed to no further advances of its activities at Arak and to halt progress on its pluto-nium track. Iran has committed to:

Not commission the Arak reactor.

Not fuel the Arak reactor.

Halt the production of fuel for the Arak reactor.

No additional testing of fuel for the Arak reactor.

Not install any additional reactor components at Arak.

Not transfer fuel and heavy water to the reactor site.

Not construct a facility capable of reprocessing. Without reprocessing, Iran cannot separate pluto-nium from spent fuel.

1. Map of Iranian nuclear installations.2. An underconstruction nuclear reactor at undisclosed location.3. Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an Urinium enrichment plant.

Located at the sea-shore of Gulf of Oman, 1000 MW Bushehr nuclear reactor is first of 3 such planned reactors which will be built in the future. Its critical location on sea shore has made it the most critical national infrastrcture for Iran. The reactor was originally planned in 1975 during the Shahs regime but after 1979 Islamic revolution, the US imposed sancations on Iran and project was delayed till 1995 when

the reactor consrrcution commenced after delay of 2 decades and completed in 2011. After initial tests, the reactor started electrcity production on commercial basis in 2013 and became part of Irans national grid.

Iran has spent lots of resources to ensure the security of the site both against aeri-al and seaward threats posed by the US and Israel. Iranian billastic missile program of-fer strategic deterrence againt threat of an Israeli attack and apart from that, over the

years, Iran has spent lots of resocues to build a credible air defense system.

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Unprecedented transparency and intrusive monitoring of Irans nuclear program. Iran has commit-ted to:

Provide daily access by IAEA inspectors at Natanz and Fordow. This daily access will permit inspec-tors to review surveillance camera footage to ensure comprehensive monitoring. This access will provide even greater transparency into enrichment at these sites and shorten detection time for any non-compliance.

Provide IAEA access to centrifuge assembly facilities.

Provide IAEA access to centrifuge rotor component production and storage facilities.

Provide IAEA access to uranium mines and mills.

Provide long-sought design information for the Arak reactor. This will provide critical insight into the reactor that has not previously been available.

Provide more frequent inspector access to the Arak reactor.

Provide certain key data and information called for in the Additional Protocol to Irans IAEA Safe-guards Agreement and Modified Code 3.1.

THE DEAL: WHAT IRAN GOT IN RETURN?

Specifically the P5+1 has committed to:

Not impose new nuclear-related sanctions for six months, if Iran abides by its commitments under

Over the years Iran has focused on building its air defense sys-tem against any aerial threats from the US or Israel

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this deal, to the extent permissible within their political systems.

Suspend certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Irans auto sector, and Irans petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran approximately $1.5 billion in revenue.

License safety-related repairs and inspections inside Iran for certain Iranian airlines.

Allow purchases of Iranian oil to remain at their currently significantly reduced levels levels that are 60% less than two years ago. $4.2 billion from these sales will be allowed to be transferred in installments if, and as, Iran fulfills its commitments.

Allow $400 million in governmental tuition assistance to be transferred from restricted Iranian funds directly to recognized educational institutions in third countries to defray the tuition costs of Iranian students.

Analysis:

This deal is being taken as a diplomatic victory by Washington and Tehran both. For Obama administration, it is a diplomatic success with results which would have difficult to come by even through a military action. For Iran, it is a success as the deal as ensured Iran its right to enrich uranium in any long term agreement after six months. And this provision has infuriated Israel, KSA and hardcore Neocons within the US. After 6 months, Iran would be free to enter into comprehensive dialog with strong case for its right to enrich Uranium within allowed limits of NPT control regime.

Both the US and Iran gave each other some diplomatic concessions. But underneath these concessions, both rivals are preparing for a prolonged, ruthless and cut throat non-kinetic war where both countries would try to outplay each other on regional geopolitical chessboard in order to protect their respective long-term strategic interests! Latest developments in Washington and Tehran are clearest manifestation of this brutal reality of complex Middle Eastern geopolitics.

A new bill of more harsh sanctions against Iran, landed in the US congress few days back, has further imped-ed the progress and right now there prevails a deadlock in current phase of negotiations with a probability of complete breakdown of talks. The bill seeks to impose new sanctions on Iran if talks on its nuclear program fail despite a White House veto threat. This bill is an extremely provocative move by the US senators as it not only demands to put more sanctions on Iran if she violates the interim agreement but also demands the same in case Iran fails to reach a final comprehensive agreement as well; a dangerous attempt to dictate the terms. The said bill has provoked Iran to respond in kind where 100 hardcore members of Iranian parliament have moved their own bill requiring the government to enrich uranium to near bomb-grade levels . These developments have created the current deadlock in ongoing negotiations. Obama administration is faced with a real crisis now as it tirelessly sold the interim deal to local masses as a victory for American interests in the Middle East.

The deal is a critical development for regional peace and stability as well because irrespective of how both sides will proceed with what they have committed in this interim deal and whether they would be able to reach a comprehensive agreement or not, the potential outcome, in either case, will be not very pleasant one for regional peace. There are two possibilities as far as the deals future is concerned;

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ers Possible outcomes:

1. Interim deal works and a comprehensive agreement is reached after 6 months with uranium en-richment, for energy production, accepted as Irans legitimate right under NPT control regime.

Iran will emerge a new sign of defiance within Muslim heartland. Shia sentiment will be boosted all across the Arabian Gulf.

Saudi influence will be reduced. KSA is in process of getting isolated on Iran, Syrian, Egyptian crises.

Iran will get more influence in geo-economic dynamics of international oil market.

Iranian diplomatic and economic isolation will end. Economy will be booming once the sanctions removed.

Iran will emerge strong military player in conventional arena with a very strong non-kinetic power in the region. Emergence of Iran with proactive strategy to extend its political-sectarian influence would result in quivering of existing sectarian fault lines within Arab world.

Iranian role in Afghanistan will not hurt American interests there as it is doing right now. It will help US to maintain a prolonged stay in Afghanistan. Iran would be new route for the US supplies for Afghanistan.

An end to trade sanctions on Iranian oil export will play an important role in amplifying Irans geo-economic significance in the region as Russia, China and India would reach Tehran for more energy imports like they were doing before current sanctions.

2. Interim deal fails and Iran comes under more sanctions with a possible attack on its nuclear installations.

American and International community would have a legitimate case against Iran for a direct military action against her nuclear infrastructure.

Iranian economy would suffer more under the extreme sanctions. Bill for these sanctions has already been moved in the US congress in case Iran break-off from the deal. Breaking the deal would mean Iran back-ing off from her commitment she promised to fulfill under the NPT regime.

Iranian political, diplomatic and sectarian influence in the region would be reduced as well.

Failure of deal would push Arab-Israel in the same anti-Iran camp. Initial reaction of both KSA and Israel on the deal was similar. This is why this deal is considered a harbinger of major strategic shifts in Mid-dle Eastern geopolitics.

WHY WILL IT WORK?

Iran is the only Shia state within Muslim world and Tehran is well aware that in order to protect its sectarian-political interests it will have to rely on its soft-power and non-kinetic tactics. Ensuring territorial integrity and economic viability as a functional nation state are the primary objectives of Iranian regime right now. On the

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other hand, it is well known fact that Americans have a long term strategic agenda in the region but it is also a fact that the US empire is no longer in a position to wield her political-military influence through another prolonged conflict in the region.

Ironically, in a bizarre way, the respective interests of Washington and Tehran have become mutually aligned, so the US and Iran would like this deal to work and this is not the first time when it has happened. In post-revolution Iranian history, there has been numerous occurrence of such events when both the US and Iran positioned themself very cleverly on diplomatic chessboard to use military and diplomatic actions of each other to their maximum advantage. Lest we forget, below is a brief summary of geopolitical history where Tehran used its diplomatic soft-power to protect and further Iranian interests.

During the Iran-Iraq war, despite sanctions and arm embargo US origin weapons were covertly pro-vided to Iran via Israel, with the US consent, against Iraq in early 1980s. The purpose of Iran-Contra scandal was to delay early Iraqi victory and maximum Muslim bloodshed. Later on, this conflict was portrayed as a Sunni-Shia conflict to deepen the sectarian divide among Muslim lands.

Iran supported anti-Taliban factions in Afghanistan and helped the US to bring down Taliban regime after 9/11. But after years of fighting when the US got weaker, same Iran was accused for helping Taliban against the US.

In 2003, just after weeks of American attack on the Iraq, Iranian government of president Khatmi

Any Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear installations would engulf the entire ME in a new war!

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ers presented Grand Bargain proposal to Bush administration through Swiss ambassador in Tehran to resolve

outstanding issues between the United States and Iran, including Irans nuclear program and support for Ha-mas and Hezbollah . This was an attempt by Tehran to exert her influence in Iraq where the fate of Saddam was sealed by the US forces.

Two biggest enemies of Iran, Afghan Taliban and Saddam Hussain, were eliminated by the US. In Second Gulf War, Tehran emerged as single winner and extended her political-sectarian influence from Iraq to Lebanon to Syria.

In post Saddam Iraq, Iran was the first country to establish diplomatic ties with new Shia regime of Iraq installed by the US. Noteworthy fact is that Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqi Prime Minister, has spent his years of exile in Tehran during the 1980s when he fled from Iraq to avoid death sentence by Saddam regime and worked closely with Iranian intelligence officials.

With active Iranian support, American CIA raised many Shia militant groups within occupied Muslim heartlands to further divide Muslim countries on sectarian basis.

An analysis of current deal in context of long term stra-tegic interest of Iran and the US proves that it is just another addition to the list of such events. Apart from covert diplomatic maneuvering by Washington and Teh-ran, there are wide ranging complex issues that need to be analyzed in context of conflict of mutual inter-ests to reach a conclusive analysis of this deal in the long run. The current interim deal will address only one aspect of regional geopolitical complexity where Iran has agreed to ensure again that it has no intentions to develop a nuclear bomb but in result of this conditional reassurance, Tehran would be in a position to deploy her soft-power to reshape the geopolitics in the region to challenge American interests on many other issues. Issues like Syrian crisis, Tehrans backing of Hezbollah in Lebanon, support to Shiite militants in Iraq, support to Shiite activists in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain, Pa-kistan and Afghanistan would remain a bone of conten-

tion in US-Iran relations. So far, Iran has not lost anything significant in this deal. The narrative that Iran has agreed to completely roll back its nuclear program in order to safe her economy is not correct as the interim deal ensured the Irans right to enrichment along with promise of elimination of harsh sanctions which have crippled Iranian economy within last two years. As far as Washingtons intentions are concerned, agnosticism and antagonism shrouding the entire deal still remains a concerning factor. To assess this otherwise hidden dimension of this entire deal episode, we will have to evaluate the deal in context of long term US strategic interests in the region and impact of interim deal on Irans internal political and economic dynamics would further clarify why Iran would like to make this deal a success!

Iraqi primeminster Nouri Al-Maliki with for-mer Iranian Prsident, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

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US STRATEGY IN 21st CENTURY AND IMPACT OF DEAL ON IRANS INTERNAL DYNAMICS:

Long-term issues will be real problem and it is the outcome of these issues which will have profound impact on not only on Irans internal political and economic dynamics but also on regional stability and future un-dercurrents of this politically complex and volatile geography of the world where the US is pursuing a multi-faceted long term strategy to ensure her global political-military hegemony in 21st century.

American strategy for turning 21st century into another American Century revolves around the following vertexes:

1. Defense of Israel2. Destroying Political Islam3. Capturing energy sources and energy transportation networks in the region.4. Capturing critical trade routes, corridors and choke-points in Indian Ocean.5. Encirclement of China6. Encirclement of Russia

The interim nuclear deal served many of these policy objectives.

Americans would be net looser as well in case the deal fails as right now the US and NATO are in no position to launch another war against a country as big as Iran with far smaller fault lines. The US exploited sectarian, linguistic and ethnic fault lines in Iraq and Afghanistan to establish firm military footprint in both these countries but in Iran the US would not have such facilitating factors. US forces would be faced with severe challenges on ground and a regime change operation would be near impossible. Furthermore, the spillover effect of a direct US-Iran conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan would put American interests in complete jeopardy. A scenario both Tehran and Washington would like to avoid.

Israel may try to take advantage of the situation and an Osirak like attempt will remain probable. But on the other hand, Iranian missile program has advanced well enough to engage Israeli targets in case Tel Aviv decides to carry out another surgical strike against Iranian nuclear installations. Tehran will be more confident about their missile deterrent after the failure of Israeli Iron-Dome anti-missile system in Israel-Lebanon war, 2009. It must be kept in mind that protection of Israel is the prime US strategic objective in 21st century and this scenario would put this strategic objective in peril zone. Failure of the deal would be yet another crisis for regional stability.

Americans would never like to eliminate Iranian influence all together as it will enable Sunni Arab regimes to crush Shia sentiment ruthlessly, at least within these Arab societies. This will end sectarian wars within Muslim heartlands something the US would never like as destroying political Islam by presenting it as a violent ideology is also among top US strategic objective in the 21st century. Americans needs Iran just like pre-revolution times so that they can control sectarian factions both in Sunni Arabs and Shia Iran by decep-tion, psy-ops and propaganda.

Iranian geography is critical in context of encirclement of Russia and China. Iran controls the Strait of Hurmoz, an important chokepoint in Persian Gulf from where major Chinese oil imports pass through. Iran

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an ally again would focus on curtailing Chinese and Russian geo-economic interests in this region.

Now it is really interesting to see how the same deal would ensure the safety of many Iranian interests tempting both Iran and the US to make this deal work.

Impact of Irans internal politics

Apart from securing lrans long term uranium enrichment right, this deal is a success for Iranian regime as well, as far as its own survival is concerned. The deal amounts to a grand victory for it has considerably lifted the threat of war and to some extent neutralized domestic defiance to Irans strict supreme council as well. This is why the ruling regime in Iran has declared this deal as a grand victory for Iranians.

Impact on Iranian Nuclear ProgramImpact of the interim deal on the nuclear program is the most debated issue within Iran and on International level as well. Initially, White House tried to spread disinformation that Iran has agreed to rollback its nuclear infrastructure completely but the actually text of signed deal cleared the fog of uncertainty. It states;

Involve a mutually defined enrichment programme with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practi-cal needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon

Undoubtedly, the interim deal has included harsh provisions of limiting Irans ability to produce nuclear weap-ons which has never remained Iranian goal in the first place. Irans supreme council had issued Fatwa against weapons of mass destruction. But interim deal has also made sure that in future Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes including advancing her R&D for the same. And the fact that 20% enrichment is within the allowed limit of NPT control regime also support Irans stance that her nuclear program has always been for peaceful purposes. This is an ideal situation for Iran which ensured safety of its nuclear pro-

After the deal, Hassan Rouhani has become one of the most popular Iranian leader in recent history

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gram within allowed parameters of NPT, which Iran is a member of, and on the other hand it will eliminate sanctions from Tehran to allow Iran to assert his influence in the Middle East more aggressively. Impact on Iranian Economics

What made Iran sign this deal? Answer is very obvious; imminent economic collapse along with a possible military strike on its nuclear installations. 34 years of stinging economic sanctions have forced Iran to reas-sess the benefits of nuclear program vis--vis cost of pursuing the path which put Iran on compromising position in the first place. After 9/11 Iranian leadership of President Khatmi had reached the conclusion that prolonged economic sanctions along with political isolation due to Tehrans insistence on keeping nuclear enrichment capability without giving details of these activities as required under NPT have damaged Iranian interests more than furthering them at any level. Thus the interim deal was reached which, apparently, looks like as if Tehran has agreed to rollback its nuclear program after decades of stubborn stance on its legitimate right to acquire peaceful nuclear energy but if analyzed in context of Tehrans growing economic strains the dynamics which made this deal possible are not difficult to fathom. This is why some experts see the interim deal not as if Iran capitulated by merely signing an interim deal with the P5+1. The Iranian regime stands to win much by subordinating the nuclear program to the imperatives of averting an imminent economic col-lapse.

Though this deal is not in favor of Iranian economic interests in its current form because of this deal Iran would lose roughly $30 billion in oil revenue over the next six months, far more than it stands to gain as part of the agreement., according to the words of same US officials, Iran will actually be worse off at the end of this six month deal than it is today and below mentioned analysis, done by White House experts explains why.

In total, the approximately $7 billion in relief is a fraction of the costs that Iran will continue to incur during this first phase under the sanctions that will remain in place. The vast majority of Irans approximately $100 billion in foreign exchange holdings are inaccessible or restricted by sanctions.

In the next six months, Irans crude oil sales cannot increase. Oil sanctions alone will result in approximately $30 billion in lost revenues to Iran or roughly $5 billion per month compared to what Iran earned in a six month period in 2011, before these sanctions took effect. While Iran will be allowed access to $4.2 billion of its oil sales, nearly $15 billion of its revenues during this period will go into restricted overseas accounts. In summary, we expect the balance of Irans money in restricted accounts overseas will actually increase, not decrease, under the terms of this deal.

Despite this precarious economic scenario, the US would force to relax some of the more sanctions on Iran particularly for Iranian petrochemical exports to China, India and Japan. It must not be assumed that Iran would go for a comprehensive agreement with current economic sanctions emplaced.

Impact on regional stability & Geopolitics

War threat has certainly vanished due to the interim deal. Israel will not able to conduct unilateral military strike on Iranian installation as it will rupture Tel Avivs relations with China, Russia and most of the Europe. Despite his sheer dislike, Israeli Prime Minster will have to give 6 months to the interim deal. The deal is a suc-cess as far as the peace and regional stability is concerned for the next 6 months and there is lot of optimism

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ers being shown for the same by everyone. But amid all this optimism for the success of this deal as a precursor

of peace, there remains a very grave aspect of Middle Eastern geopolitics which cannot be ignored and that is if the deal is really meant for peace or it is just a trap set for Iran to discredit its soft power and diplomacy just like the US has done to so many countries.

Many analysts, both in Iran and the US, believe that this interim deal is nothing more than a pre-war phase to win local support for another possible US war in the Middle East. Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at the Independent Institute, Dr. Ivan Eland has analyzed this pre-war US strategy which was adopted in Iraq back in 2003 and which according to Dr. Ivan is being deployed against Iran. He noted; In both America and Israel, politicians customarily need to pretend to avoid war, even though intentions are otherwise. For example, before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, President George W. Bush blamed Saddam Hussein for kicking out international weapons inspectors trying to find what turned out to be nonexistent weapons of mass destructiona hostile actwhen the inspectors really exited that country because of the imminent U.S. attack. So the hawks have claimed falsely that the interim agreement rolls back no part of Irans nuclear program and have vehemently opposed the deal because it is not tough enough.

Albeit, this potential challenge also has a flipside as well as it will enable Iran to use its soft-power, through media and diplomatic arms, against the nuclear program of the only nuclear state (Israel) in the region that, with astonishing colonialist arrogance of the yore, simply refuses even to admit it has nuclear warheads, let alone allow the inspections of its nuclear facilities. This perhaps is the main reason why Israelis are so fierce over this deal which otherwise has effectively put the Iranian potential nuclear weapon development program to an end.

Current phase and development of negotiations hints that Iran and the P5+1 both are playing their cards very carefully and the way future dynamics of this deal would be unfolded remains to be seen. Russian are also proactively trying to form a loose union of Central Asian states on the model of European Union as a countermove to prevent American influence in the region.

LESSONS FOR PAKISTAN:

The way Iranian leadership has handled the issue of uranium enrichment so far, a number of critical lessons are hidden for Pakistani leadership in it.

21st century is an era of soft-power and perception management through media and psy-ops.

Defense and diplomacy go side by side in modern statecraft and no single state organ can ensure the safety of vital national interests.

Non-Kinetic means yields more results than wars when deployed skillfully through diplomacy and clearly identified and defined national interests.

The priorities of national interests can be altered except national security interests; conversely put, national security interests dictate every other aspect of national interest. People in Pakistan, advising a rollback of our nuclear program in order to gain economic survival, must be ignored as our nuclear program is the

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ultimate deterrence against both conventional and non-conventional external threats!

Only strong and patriotic regimes are capable to use non-kinetic soft-power through diplomatic en-gagements. Political governments formed through NROs can never be capable to undertake such delicate job.

Understanding the fast changing dynamics of regional geopolitics and continuously repositioning ac-cordingly to protect long term national security interests are the hallmarks of real leadership.

Under a collective regional security setup, Pakistans nuclear program can ensure the security of entire Muslim World. Pakistan cannot allow Iran to fall in the US hands like old times of Shahs regime and at the same time, Anglo-American influence will have to be eliminated from the Middle East as well. Pakistan can put an end to the sense of insecurity prevailing within Arab world from Iran by launching its own media offensive against artificially created bogy of Iranian threat by Western psy-ops and media. Sooner we do this, better it would be for our own survival.

FINAL WORDS:

The interim deal on Irans nuclear program has added to the existing complexity of Middle Eastern geopoli-tics. The final outcome is not very clear as of yet but what is clear is the fact that any potential outcome of this deal has far reaching consequences for regional peace and stability including Pakistan. Considering the US policy goals for 21st century, Middle East must be the most important region for Pakistan in its foreign policy. Why? Reason is too obvious! Being an ideological Islamic state, protecting the political vision of Islam must be among the top priority of Pakistani governments and military leadership. Amid prevailing political realities of Pakistan, this indeed is not an easy task and demands a visionary leadership. Historically, Pakistan has enjoyed warm relations with both Iran and Arab world and now after becoming the only nuclear Muslim state holds the key to bring both together. Current regional political environment is conducive for any such overture which in the long run can eliminate the century old Anglo-American influence from Muslim heart-land for the collective good of all Muslim countries and bring them together.

There are number of internal challenges which Pakistani state is faced with, but none of these challenges must prevent Pakistan from launching an aggressive diplomacy towards Middle East. Searching common security and economic grounds among Pakistan, Iran and Arab World must be the pivot of such an endeavor. In pre-sent times, when attacked from multiple fronts in complex non-kinetic wars, Pakistan needs friends in inter-national community particularly within Muslim world. Pakistan must engage China and Russia in this regard as well. US strategic goals in the region are common threat to Beijing and Moscow as well. Pakistan must also learn from the Iranian diplomacy, a country showing defiance against all major superpowers against all odds and finally able to secure her interest as well.

Its time to devise and implement our homegrown, independent and honorable strategic and national security policies as a Muslim state and as a leader of Islamic world, rather than as a subservient client state of the West and US. These are decisive moments for Pakistan to take this initiative aggressively at national, regional and global level. For the Pakistani nation, its now or never! The time for change has arrived. Failure is not an option here!

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ers END NOTES:

1. Fact Sheet: First Step Understandings Regarding the Islamic Republic of Irans Nuclear Program, White House, Statements and Releases, 23rd November 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-of-fice/2013/11/23/fact-sheet-first-step-understandings-regarding-islamic-republic-iran-s-n

2. Washington Post, White House Omitting Facts About Iran Nuclear Deal, 29th November 2013,

3. Reuters, U.S. Senate makes move toward vote on new Iran sanctions bill, 20th December 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/20/us-iran-nuclear-congress-idUSBRE9BJ1DC20131220

4. Ben Armbruster, Iranian MPs Propose Bill To Enrich Near Weapons-Grade Uranium After Congresss Sanc-tions Push, Thinkprogress, 26th December 2013, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/12/26/3104251/iran-parliament-uranium-enrichment/#

5. The Iran-Contra Affair 20 Years On, The National Security Archive (George Washington University), 24th November 2006, http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB210/

6. CBS News, Iran gave US help on Al-Qaeda After 9/11,7th October 2008, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-gave-us-help-on-al-qaeda-after-9-11/

7. PBS, Showdown with Iran, Grand Bargain Fax: A Missed Opportunity? , http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/showdown/themes/grandbargain.html

8. Wikipedia, Nouri Al Maliki, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouri_al-Maliki

9. Joint Plan of Action (Text of Iran nuclear deal), 24th November 2013, http://i.alalam.ir/news/Image/original/2013/11/24/agreement.pdf

10. Robert Collier, Nuclear Weapon unholy, San Francisco Chronicle, 31st October 2003, http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Nuclear-weapons-unholy-Iran-says-Islam-forbids-2580018.php 11. Hassan Barari, No Breakthrough In Iran Nuke Deal Yet, Eurasia Review, 2nd December 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/02122013-breakthrough-iran-nuke-deal-yet-oped/

12. Yochi Dreazen, Deal Reached to Halt Iran Nuclear Program, Foreign Policy, 14th November 2013, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/11/24/deal_reached_to_halt_irans_nuclear_program?wp_login_redirect=0

13. Hamid Dabashi, The Big Deal about the Iran Nuclear Deal, AlJazeera, 26th November 2013, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/11/iran-nuclear-deal-battle-spin-201311255301531860.html

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14. Ivan Eland, The Real Reason Hawks Are Trying to Kill Interim Nuclear Agreement With Iran, Euraisa Review, 2nd December 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/02122013-real-reason-hawks-trying-kill-inter-im-nuclear-agreement-iran-oped/ 15. Ibid