"Why are Iran's nuclear technology efforts of critical concern to Israel's security?”

Mike Natelson

Facts

• Uranium Enrichment

• Transmutation U238 -> Pu239• Fission bomb design• Israel's geography

Speculation

• Iranian governance• Israeli intelligence and defense capability

Uranium Isotopes

Natural Uranium -- 0.7% U235 , 99.3% U238

Power reactor enrichment -- 3.5- 5.5% U235

Fission bomb enrichment -- ~ 90% U235

Enrichment Methods

Calutron (mass spectrometer)

Gaseous Diffusion

Centrifuge Cascade

Separation of Isotopes by Laser Excitation (SILEX)

Feed Nf

Take Out of Enriched Uranium

Take Out of Depleted Uranium

Product Np

Tails Nt

Separation ofU235 and U238

Enrichment Method EffectivenessSeparative Work Unit (SWO)

SWOs needed for various applications

Iranian Centrifuge Inventory

NR-1 (.7-1 SWU/a)9,000 operational6,420 installed15,420 total

NR-2 (3.5-5 SWU/a)1000 installed

Ref. IAEA 10/14

Amount of highly enriched Uranium or Plutonium for a 20KT-yield Atomic (fission) bomb

• Hiroshima Bomb (little boy): – 64kgs 80%U235

• Modern Uranium designs: – Low tech. 16kgs 90%U235 – High tech. 5kgs 90%U235

• Modern Plutonium designs: – Low tech. 6kgs Pu239 – High tech. 3kgs Pu239

• Ref. Nation Resources Defense Council 1995 paper by Cochran and Paine.

SWOs needed to provide:Yearly 3.6% enriched U for a 1000MWe Power Reactor, 150,000SWUs (e.g. Iran’s Bushelr PWR)

One “low tech.” Fission (90% enriched U) bomb.

1119SWUs

(starting with 3.6% enriched U)

Plutonium Creation

Hiroshima (fission) Bomb

Richard Rhodes The making of the Atomic Bomb

Implosion Bomb Polonium-Beryllium Initiator

Uranium 235

Conventional Explosives

Israel

Area ~ New Jersey

Population 7.8 million 76% Jews

Jewish population centers Tel Aviv Haifa West Jerusalem

Speculation

• Iranian governance

• Israeli intelligence and defense capability

Iran’s Nuclear Objective(s)?

Support electric power generation

Provide security/deterrence

Destroy Israel

Israel's Wars

1948 Independence1956 Sinai Campaign1967 Six Day War1973 Yom Kippur War1982 First Lebanon War1987 First Intifada2000 Second Intifada2006 Second Lebanon War (Hezbollah)2008, 2012 and 2014 Gaza (Hamas)