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Definition
Expression of attitudes concerning government and politics
Many “publics” Influenced by political socialization
and demography
How is public opinion measured? Polls: person, PHONE, internet, mail Concerns? What are focus groups? Interactive
group setting Gallup poll (1932) – scientific method Others: Pew Research, Zogbys, etc.
Polling in elections
Tracking polls Exit polls-only way we know how
demographic groups voted since ballots are secret
Key poll terms to know
Sample: representative of universe Universe: group to be measured Random sample: crucial to validity,
equal probability of being selected Accurate representation is key---
quality not quantity Sampling error: margin of error +/- 3
points is considered accurate
What are the pros of polling in public office? More democratic More efficient than waiting for next
election Political participation
What are the cons of polling? Discourages bold leadership since
candidate follows polls too much Bandwagon effect among voters Horserace coverage by media Exit polls (most criticized) Wording can get a specific result
Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East?
Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East no matter what the cost?
Undecided voters can affect poll results
How does polling affect policy? Public opinion polls are a way to link the public with
elected officials. Members of Congress often use polls to understand the views of their constituents, but they must also pay attention to other political considerations. a. Identify two characteristics of a valid, scientific,
public opinion poll. b. Explain why each of the following enhances the
influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress. Strong public opinion as expressed in polling results Competitive re-elections
c. Explain why each of the following limits the influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress. Legislators’ voting records Party leadership
Political Efficacy Belief that one can make a difference in politics
by expressing an opinion and acting politically
Turnout
Percentage of voting age public who actually vote
See handout 2000 Census-97 million people DID
NOT vote General elections v. Off-year
elections Primaries and caucuses?
Factors that Influence Voting Age: Younger demographics are less likely to
vote Education: College graduates are more likely to
vote than less educated citizens Religion: Jewish voters tend to vote Democratic;
Protestant voters tend to be more conservative on economic issues
Location: Rural voters are more likely to support Republican candidates while urban voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates
Ethnicity: African Americans tend to support more liberal candidates within their party
Why do people not vote?
Most common reason is APATHY Political scientists give other reasons
for non-voting that may contribute to apathy among American voters
Divided into 3 categories Demographic Psychological Institutional
Demographic Reasons for Non-Voting
Sociological reasons Income Age Educational level Race or ethnicity Religion
All contribute to a sense of no political efficacy
Psychological Reasons For Non-Voting
Candidate appeal Issues Weak Party identification
Party Identification (Partisanship)- #1 indicator of how a person will vote on election day
Voters have increasingly become more focused on individual candidates
Negative campaigning
Institutional Reasons for Non-Voting
Governmental reasons for non voting Registration and residency requirements Felons denied the right to vote Large number of elections Absentee process is too complicated Ballots are too complex and long Weekday voting Citizenship requirement Independents in closed primary states
Expansion of Voting
Even after amendments expanding voting rights past that of the original electorate, the majority of the current electorate does not vote in most elections
Which amendments expanded voting rights?
15th
19th
23rd
26th
Voting Rights Act of 1965 Major instrument for increasing the
number of African Americans and other minority voters What did the act do in addition to already
established voting amendments? Suspended literacy tests Federal examiners to order registration
where fewer than %50 Criminal penalties for interfering with the
right to vote
Motor Voter Act (1990s)
Law requiring states and federal agencies to register voters (DMV, SSA)
Impact? Increase voter registration and remove barriers to voting
Help America Vote Act (2002)
Law to correct irregularities in the election of 2000
No punchcard machines, federal grants to improve voter education and poll worker training
Statewide voter registration system Submit a state plan in order to receive funding Impact? Decrease fraud, more accurate record
of voting, transparency in the process
Current Voter Issues
Identification requirements in Alabama Politics in registration (registering where
they sell hunting licenses in FL) In areas with significant populations of
linguistic minorities, voting materials must be made available in the preferred languages of the population
Continually declining turnout among young people