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Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future
Stéphan Vincent-LancrinOECD
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education
• Trends analysis
– Demography– Technology– Globalisation – Academic research– Labour market
• Futures scenarios
Outline
• Why does demography matter?
• What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes?
• What are the qualitative challenges?
• What will it take to address them?
Why does demography matter?
Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments
Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100)
Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)
Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under
scenario 2 (GDP points)
Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography
GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)
Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population
Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population
Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments
Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States
Source: US Censur Bureau
Social inequity over time (father’s education)
Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)
Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100)
Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women
Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group
No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?
Addressing the quality access challenges
On your memory stick
Higher Education 2030
– Volume 1: Demography
Forthcoming:– Volume 2: Technology– Volume 3: Globalisation– Volume 4: Scenarios
