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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 1 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo Start with Hans Rosling

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 3 Today Investigate the Demographic Transition Model Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 4 1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 5 Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 6 Crude Birth Rate CBR Number of live births per year = 3,180 Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000 CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 7 Crude Death Rate CDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860 Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000 CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000 CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 8 Rate of Natural Increase RNI CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10 RNI = (CBR CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = 0.66% growth per year

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 9 Infant Mortality Rate IM number of newborns dying under one year of age = 40 divided by the number of live births during one year = 5,300 Time 1,000 IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000 IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000 IM = 7.6 deaths per 1,000 births IM = 7.6 deaths per 1,000 births

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 10 Fertility Rate Average Number of child births Per woman Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents 2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the US of a Developed Country

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 11 Types of Diagrams Demographic Transition Model Population Pyramid Trend Diagrams Temporal (over time) Spatial (over space Survivorship Diagram

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 12 2. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 13 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 14 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. Our main concern has been growth Now in Industrial Countries it is decline

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 15 What is the Demographic Transition Model? It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 16 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is a model a scientific hypothesis Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 17 What is the Demographic Transition Model? The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, so we are continually experimenting with it and improving it In this class we will experiment with it in Mexico & Sweden

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 18 Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Four Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing Growth 4. Low Growth Some now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Factors That Change over the Stages Family Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates Family Economics Status of Kids Gender Roles Health Conditions Transportation Facilities Child Deaths Population Size

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 19 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializa tion: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Family Size -- planned Family Planning -- The general plan is to have many kids Family Planning -- The plan is to have fewer kids Trends stabilize with 2 kid families or less Infant Mortality Rate/ Fertility Rate Many children because few survive, high fertility rate Still many kids because expect few to survive high fertility Lower infant mortality rates -- less pressure to have children, fertility declines Small family size low fertility rate Family Economics Many children are needed to work the land Children are still useful for work Increased mechanization and industrialization means less need for labor/kids Women are working in great numbers

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 20 Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CBR High Birth rates Falling Birth rates Low Birth rates Status of Kids Children are a sign of virility & status and old age insurance Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families Kids are an expense & bling Gender roles Strong sex roles Emancipation of women

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 21 Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth CDR High Death Rates Falling Death Rates Death rates Low Health Conditi ons Poor Diet & Sanitation, Famine and Disease Improved diet, sanitation & medical care Slight improvement No change Transp ort Faciliti es Limited transport, trade & travel Improved transport to move food and doctors Slight Improvement Stable Child Deaths High child mortality before age 5 A decrease in child mortality Child mortality very low Stable After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 22 Stage 1 : Pre industrializ ation: Stable population growth Stage 2: Rapid population growth Stage 3: Continued and decreasing population growth Stage 4: Stable low population growth Rate Natural Increase Very Low Growth High Growth Slowing Growth Low Growth Population Size Small Population BiggerBigger Biggest After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 23 Examples Sweden Historic Industrial Country Mexico An Industrializing Country

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 24 Developed Country Example

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 25 Developing Country Example

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 26 Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 27 3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 28 Types of Diagrams These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact Survivorship Diagram Stabilization Ratio Diagram Population Pyramids Temporal Trends Spatial Trends

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 29 Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops Less then 10% reached 25yrs old Now 90% live past 55yrs old

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 30 Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 31 HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 1 billion in 1804 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later) Recent Exponential Growth of Worlds Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition About 6.8 bil. currently

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 32 Total Population of the World by Decade, 19502050 http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html (historical and projected) Year Total world population (mid-year figures) Ten-year growth rate (%) 1950 2,556,000,05318.9% 1960 3,039,451,02322.0 1970 3,706,618,16320.2 1980 4,453,831,71418.5 1990 5,278,639,78915.2 2000 6,082,966,42912.6 2010 1 6,848,932,92910.7 2020 1 7,584,821,1448.7 2030 1 8,246,619,3417.3 2040 1 8,850,045,8895.6 2050 1 9,346,399,468

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 33 Stabilization of Worlds population is still over a generation away

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 34 Population Pyramids Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort Also can see Demographic Stage Guatemala Stage 2 Mexico is going into Stage 3

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 35 Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age Stage 4: Sweden Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 36 USA what Stage would you say each of these are???

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Interactive Pop Pyramid for USA Demographic Transition Egeo 312 37 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/02/04/business/aging-population.html?ref=business

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 38 Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making?

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 39 Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates. Result is a decline in CBR This is a temporal trend diagram.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 40 Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 41 Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram What is occuring here? Speculate why.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 42 Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 43 Where is the Worlds Population Growing? Declining?

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 44 Declining World Mortality Rates Map At the end of the second and the beginning of the third stages of the demographic transition, death rates declined. Where did they first decline and where did they last decline? Created by Ingolf Vogeler on 1 February 1996 http://www.uwec.edu/geography/Ivogeler/w111/dempop.htm

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 45 ONE LAST CONCEPT

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 46 Dependency Ratio Ratio of non-working population to working age population Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees young are usually 15 yrs old and below retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 47 Pakistans High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly. However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 48 Dependency Ratio Woes A rising dependency ratio is also a concern in many countries that are facing aging populations, since it becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to retirees. Copyright 2006, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All Rights Reserved. This story may NOT be posted on any Internet web site without express written permission. Contact admin@copvcia.com. May be circulated, distributed or transmitted for non- profit purposes only. www.fromthewilderness.com admin@copvcia.com

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Demographic Transition Egeo 312 49 Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population lots of elderly (nearly black color) Working age population (purple color) few kids (dark purple color) Result is high Dependency Ratio

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Play time: Hans Rosling Demographic Transition Egeo 312 50 http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html

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Play time: gapminder.com Demographic Transition Egeo 312 51 http://www.gapminder.org/