Population Change in England and Wales 1700-

2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total Population

Population Change

Births

Immigrants

Deaths

Emigrants

TotalPopulation

Natural Increase

Migration

The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration

Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates

Inputs Outputs

World Population Changes

Global Natural Increase

Doubling TimeThis map shows how long it will take for countries to double

their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

NaturalIncreaseIn Population

NaturalDecreaseIn Population

Stage 5 ?

Stage 1High Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 1• Low population

– Increasing very slowly

• High birth rate

• High death rate

• Tribes (Amazonia)

• UK: pre-1780

Stage 2Early Expanding

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate

• High but decreasing birth rate

• Decreasing death rate

• Sri Lanka/Bolivia• UK: 1780-1880

Stage 3Late Expanding

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 3 • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down

• Decreasing birth rate• Low death rate• Uruguay/China• UK: 1880-1940

Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 4• High population,

almost stable

• Low birth rate

• Low death rate

• Canada/USA

• UK: post-1940

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Ethiopia/NigerUK: pre-1780

NaturalIncreaseIn Population

NaturalDecreaseIn Population

Sri Lanka/BoliviaUK: 1780-1880

Uruguay/ChinaUK: 1880-1940

Canada/USAUK: Post-1940

Reasons

What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 1

• Little access to birth control• Many children die in infancy

so parents have more to compensate

• Children are needed to work on the land

• Some religions encourage large families

• Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care

• Improvements in sanitation and water supply

• Quality and quantity of food produced improves

• Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies

• Decrease in infant mortality

Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception

• Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families

• Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required

• As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families

• Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 4• Rates fluctuate with ‘baby

booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases

• Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises

Is there a Stage 5?

?

??

Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population

Limitations

What limitations do you think there could be with the model?

• It does not include the influences of migration• It assumes that all countries will go through the

same pattern• There is no time scale• Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very

different in different countries• And finally, is there a stage 5?

The End?