Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Total Population

Hanel, Germany

J. Gathorpe-Hardy

What do you think these cartoons are saying?

Stage 1High Fluctuating

Low population Increasing very slowly

High birth rateHigh death rateUK: pre-1780Now? –tribes in remote Africa and Amazon - SudanTotal

Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 1

Stage 2Early Expanding

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate

• High but decreasing birth rate

• Decreasing death rate

• Sri Lanka/Kenya• UK: 1780-1880

Stage 3Late Expanding

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 3 • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down

• Decreasing birth rate• Low death rate• China• UK: 1880-1940

Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 4• High population,

almost stable• Low birth rate• Low death rate• UK, • UK: post-1940

Is there a Stage 5?

?

??

Stage 5: Depleting PopulationSweden?

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Ethiopia/NigerUK: pre-1780

NaturalIncreaseIn Population

NaturalDecreaseIn Population

Bangladesh/KenyaUK: 1780-1880

Brazil/ChinaUK: 1880-1940

Japan/USAUK: Post-1940

Demographic Transition Model and the Pyramids?

Reasons

What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?

Reasons for Stage 1High Fluctuating

Little access to birth controlMany children die in infancy so parents have more to compensateChildren are needed to work on the landSome religions encourage large familiesDeath rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 1

Reasons for Stage 2Early Expanding

Total Population

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care• Improvements in sanitation and water

supply• Quality and quantity of food produced

improves• Transport and communications

improve movements of food and medical supplies

• Decrease in infant mortality

Reasons for Stage 3Late Expanding

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception

• Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families

• Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required

• As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families

• Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home

Reasons for Stage 4Low Fluctuating

Total Population

Birth RateDeath Rate

Stage 4 • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases

• Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises

DTM of India

Stage 1High Birth and Death rates

High BR:Lack of knowledge of birth controlChildren as workers and investmentTo counter the impact of high IMRMale heir

High DR:Poor health careLack of hygienePoor living condition46/1000 in 1921

Stage 2Population Explosion

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 2 1920-1985 • Population growing at faster rate • (population explosion)• BR still high • Decreasing death rate• India became a British colony which

brought improved medicines, health care, water and sanitation services

• IMR and DR fell• 50% were below 15 yrs old when they

reach child bearing age, population growth will still continued to grow rapidly

Stage 3Late Expanding

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Stage 3 • Since 1985• DR- levelling off

(9/1000)• Not many ageing

population – low 4%• BR decline 28/1000• Natural increase still

high 1.9%

Can the DTM be applied anywhere?

NONot all countries have steady development / stages of developmentSome countries have no proper censusDTM based on British Countries Eurocentric – a very European perspectivesStage of development is pretty much slowerSome LEDCs have no history of DTM until recentlyChina – government is adopting ANTI-NATALIST POLICY therefore change the DTM

Problems /Limitations:Only considered BR, DR & NIIt does not include the influences of migration (immigration, emigration)It assumes that all countries will go through the same patternThere is no time scaleReasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countriesAnd finally, is there a stage 5?

Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:

1. Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.

2. The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.

3. The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine.

The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage

3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘onechild’ policy.

The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries.

4. Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

The End?

Source:http://www.slideshare.net/reservoirgeogs/demographic-transition-presentation