The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

• A descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’ development from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond

• Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth

• Based on known facts rather than general assumption

The Demographic Transition Model

As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?

Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition

• High birth rate and high death rate• Two rates are nearly equal • Death rate fluctuating likely due to war

and disease• Involves a low-income agricultural

economy• Children are less of an expense and

more of an asset• Population growth is very slow• Population resides in rural areas• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-

periphery?

Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition

• Birth rate remains high

• Death rate begins to fall rapidly

• Results in population explosion

• Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances

• Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases

• This stage characterizes nations in early development

• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition

• Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives• Increased standards of living • Rate of Natural Increase is falling• The cost of children is increasing • Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate• Population still increasing relatively quickly • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition

• Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate• Rate of Natural Increase is low• Population growth is low and stable • Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought• Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’ • Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

• The population is declining• Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries• Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Relationship to Population Pyramids

• By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that that particular country is in and vice versa

• In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted

• Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline

Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable

Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition

Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition

Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

Statistics (2007)

• Canada: BR 11; DR 7; IMR 5; LE 80; DT 84.3• United States: BR 14; DR 8; IMR 7; LE 78; DT 79.2• China: BR 12; DR 7; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 111.28• India: BR 24; DR 8; IMR 58; LE 64; DT 44.35• Indonesia: BR 21; DR 7; IMR 34; LE 69; DT 59.57• Brazil: BR 21; DR 6; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 57• Mexico: BR 21; DR 5; IMR 21; LE 75; DT 61.29• United Arab Emirates: BR 17; DR 2; IMR 9; LE 79; DT 18.26 • Australia: BR 13; DR 6; IMR 5; LE 81; DT 57.33• Afghanistan: BR 47; DR 21; IMR 166; LE 42; DT 26.65