Demographic Change - RIETI · Demographic Change How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and...

Demographic ChangeDemographic Change

How the US is Coping with Aging, How the US is Coping with Aging, Immigration, and Other ChallengesImmigration, and Other Challenges

William H. FreyWilliam H. FreyBrookings InstitutionBrookings Institution

University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

www.freywww.frey--demographer.orgdemographer.org

US: Total and Age 65+ Growth, 1970- 2030

Source: William H. Frey analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Total Age 65+

US Immigrant Population, 1970 - 2005


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

mill

ions

Growing New Minorities, 2000- 30


0

5

10

15

20

25

Hispanics Asians

2000 2010 2020 2030

Shar

e of

Pop

ulat

ion

Total Fertility Rate

United StatesUnited States 2.052.05FranceFrance 1.891.89United KingdomUnited Kingdom 1.821.82ItalyItaly 1.381.38GermanyGermany 1.361.36JapanJapan 1.271.27

Source: United Nations

Life Expectancy

JapanJapan 82.682.6FranceFrance 80.780.7ItalyItaly 80.580.5GermanyGermany 79.479.4United KingdomUnited Kingdom 79.479.4United StatesUnited States 78.278.2


Immigration Rate (per 1000)

United StatesUnited States 3.93.9ItalyItaly 2.62.6United KingdomUnited Kingdom 2.12.1GermanyGermany 1.81.8FranceFrance 1.61.6JapanJapan 0.40.4


Projected Growth, 2006-2050

United StatesUnited States 40%40%United KingdomUnited Kingdom 14%14%FranceFrance 5%5%ItalyItaly --5%5%GermanyGermany --9%9%JapanJapan --21%21%


Percent Aged 65+

JapanJapan 20%20%GermanyGermany 19%19%ItalyItaly 19%19%FranceFrance 16%16%United KingdomUnited Kingdom 16%16%United StatesUnited States 12%12%


Population Growth

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.019

50-1

955

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2005

-201

0

2010

-201

5

2015

-202

0

2020

-202

5

2025

-203

0

2030

-203

5

2035

-204

0

2040

-204

5

2045

-205

0

US Japan


Labor Force Growth

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.019

50-1

955

1955

-196

0

1960

-196

5

1965

-197

0

1970

-197

5

1975

-198

0

1980

-198

5

1985

-199

0

1990

-199

5

1995

-200

0

2000

-200

5

2005

-201

0

2010

-201

5

2015

-202

0

2020

-202

5

2025

-203

0

2030

-203

5

2035

-204

0

2040

-204

5

2045

-205

0

US Japan


Age Dependency

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.019

50-

1960

-

1970

-

1980

-

1990

-

2000

-

2010

-

2020

-

2030

-

2040

-

2050

-

US Japan

Persons age 65+ per 100 persons age 16-64


US Growth by Age 2000US Growth by Age 2000--1010

Source: William H. Frey

310

4

-9

19

49

16 14

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 5 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Frey

Population Changes in the Population Changes in the Next 3 DecadesNext 3 Decades

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Young Elderly Old Elderly

2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030

(65 - 74) (75 +)


Frey

Population Changes in the Population Changes in the Next 3 DecadesNext 3 Decades

-8,000-6,000-4,000-2,000

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,000

Empty Nesters Pre-Elderly

2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030

(45 - 54) (55 - 64)


Boomers vs. Parents at MidlifeBoomers vs. Parents at Midlife

14%

23%

36%

30%

38%

50%

21%

55%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

% HS Dropout

%Women Not Working

% Not Married

% With 3+ Kids

Boomers Parents


Household Types: Older Age Groups


52.137.2

20.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+Female Head NonFamilies Male Head NonFamiliesFemale Head Families Male Head FamiliesMarried Couples

Growth by Age, 2000Growth by Age, 2000--1010

Source: William Frey,

-10

010

2030

40

5060

70

California Nevada Michigan

Under 2525-4445-6465+

20002000--10 Growth: Under Age 3510 Growth: Under Age 35


GT 7%

1% - 7%

LT 1%

Percent 65+ population for States, 2005


13.4% & above12% -13%11% -11.9%under 12%

Rates of Migration by Age


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

<5 5-910

-1415

-1920

-2425

-2930

-3435

-3940

-4445

-4950

-5455

-5960

-6465

-6970

-7475

-7980

-84 85+

Per 1

00

Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000-05

2005-10

2010-15

2015-20

2020-25

2025-30

2030-35

2035-40

Aging in Place Net Migration

perc

ent g

row

th

New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000-05

2005-10

2010-15

2015-20

2020-25

2025-30

2030-35

2035-40

Aging in Place Net Migration

perc

ent g

row

th

US Federal Budget Allocation as Percent of Projected Federal Revenue

Source: Dowell Myers, Boomers and Seniors

56 6191

121

5667

55

60

020406080

100120140160180200

2006 2010 2020 2030

Health Care and Social Security All Other Expenditures

Immigrants in the US, 1900 Immigrants in the US, 1900 --20052005

14.2

9.6

35.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

in millions

Source: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution

Immigrant Share of US Immigrant Share of US PopulationPopulation

4.7

12.1

14.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: US Census sources

Types of US Foreign Born, 2005

Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center

Legal Temporary

3%

Undocumented30%

Legal Permanent

67%

Legal Permanent Immigrants, 2003-05

Source: Population Reference Bureau

Other17%

FamilyTies64%

Employment19%

Immigrant Origins

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Pew Hispanic Center

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Legal Undocumented

Other Asia Latin America

Education: Immigrants vs Natives

Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

>8 Grade 9-12Grade

HSDiploma

SomeCollege

CollegeDiploma

PostCollege

foreign born native born

Immigrant Education: Mexican vs. Other Origins

Source: Congressional Budget Office Analysis

05

1015202530354045

>8 Grade 9-12Grade

HSDiploma

SomeCollege

CollegeDiploma

PostCollege

Mexican Rest of World

Hispanics: Less than High School


32%

54%

15%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Ist Generation 2nd Generation Total US

Hispanics: College Graduates


18%

10%

28%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%


Asians: College Graduates


53%51%

28%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%


Most Prevalent Jobs

Native Born Foreign Born

Admin Support ProductionManagement ConstructionSales Admin SupportEducation Sales

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Immigrants - Prevalent Jobs

Mexican Rest of World

Construction SalesProduction Admin SupportMaintenance ManagementTransportation Production

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Undocumented Prevalent Jobs

Cooks

Construction

Maids/Housekeeping

Maintenance

Agriculture

Source: Jeffrey Passel, Pew Hispanic Center

Long Term Fiscal Impact of One Migrant

Source: Population Reference Bureau

-$89

$105

-$30

$82$76$93

-$100

-$50

$0

$50

$100

$150

Not High School High School Some College

Immigrant Descendent

US dollars

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Immigrant Magnet States

State Immigrant Growth, 1990State Immigrant Growth, 1990--20052005

200% or more growthBtn 100% and 199% growthTraditional immigrant gatewayAll other states


Immigrants Immigrants vsvs Natives: 2005Natives: 2005

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Hispanics: BlueCollar Workers

Blue CollarWorkers*

Hispanics: Povertyand Near Poverty

Poverty and NearPoverty**

Immigrants in New Destinations.Immigrants in Traditional MagnetsUS Native Born


GT 40%Other

Where Undocumented Dominate Where Undocumented Dominate Foreign BornForeign Born

Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center

Desired US Immigration LevelsDesired US Immigration Levels

5.2 6.2

47.156.8

14.17.8

33.6 29.3

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Traditional MagnetStates

New DestinationStates

PresentIncreasedDecreasedDon't Know

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005

3 Year Work Permits for Illegal 3 Year Work Permits for Illegal Immigrants?Immigrants?

6.4 3.4

54.5 71.9

39.124.7

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

TraditionalMagnet States

New DestinationStates

Allowed

Not Allowed

Don't Know

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005

US RaceUS Race--EthnicityEthnicity


0.6

1.514.4

4.4

12.1

67.1

White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic

Natives and Recent ImmigrantsNatives and Recent Immigrants


Native Born

76.3

1.07.3

White Black Asian Am Indian Mixed Race Hispanic

Recent Foreign Born

15.9

20.4

55.8

US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2050

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

69.1%

50.1%


New Demographic RegionsNew Demographic Regions

Melting Pot AmericaMelting Pot America

The New SunbeltThe New Sunbelt

The HeartlandThe Heartland


New Sunbelt, Melting Pot, and Heartland States

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States


Demographic Components, 2000Demographic Components, 2000--20052005(Rates per 1000)(Rates per 1000)

Source: William Frey

19.5

10.1

-8.1

28.3

-6.6

32.7

-15-10

-505

101520253035

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

ImmigrationDomesticMigration

Race Composition of RegionsRace Composition of Regions

70%

15%

3%2%

10%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

80%

12%2%

2% 4%

New Sunbelt HeartlandMelting Pot


54%

11%

7%

2%

26%

25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0 to 9.9%

Under 5%

Hispanic Concentrations, 2005Hispanic Concentrations, 2005

Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Percent of County Population

White Concentrations, 2005White Concentrations, 2005

Percent of County Population

95% and above

85.0% to 94.9%

70.0% to 84.9%

Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Children Speaking Spanish at Children Speaking Spanish at HomeHome

Under 5%5% to 10%10% to 20%20% and Over

Source: William H. Frey, analysis of 2000 Census

Race Profiles for Race Profiles for Occupations Los AngelesOccupations Los Angeles

Source: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken InstituteSource: William Frey. Milken Institute

Professional& Mgrs

Clerical & Sales

Skilled Blue Collar

Unskilled & Services

Black Indian HispanicWhite Asian

Race for Age Groups: US


57.6 61.473.2 81.5

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+


Race for Age Groups: California


31.8 36.753.5

65.2

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+


Hispanics: 2004 Total Hispanics: 2004 Total vsvs Voter Voter SharesShares

4537

3329

23 20 19

34

2216

12 10 9 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NewMexico

Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida

TotalVoters

Source: William H.Frey

United StatesUnited StatesProjected Race Compositions, 2025Projected Race Compositions, 2025

Source: William H. Frey, Brookings InstitutionSource: William H. Frey, Brookings InstitutionSource: William H. Frey, Brookings Institution

Under Under AgeAge 1818

52 %

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

62 %

Age 18 Age 18 --6464

76 %

Age 65+Age 65+

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