Do Arms Races Lead to Wars?

LSE40016 January 2015

Sir Edward Grey, 1926

• ‘The enormous growth of armaments in Europe, the sense of insecurity and fear caused by them – it was these that made war inevitable. This, it seems to me, is the truest reading of history, and the lesson that the present should be learning from the past, in the interests of future peace, the warning to be handed on to those who come after us.’

PRC/US Military Balance

Richardson Model

dx/dt = ay – mx + r

dy/dt = bx – ny + s

dx/y = defence spending by country x/y over time

a and b = fear

m and n = economic fatigue/restraint

r and s = grievance/ambition/revenge

Definition

• ‘…intense competition between Powers or groups of Powers, each trying to obtain an advantage in military power by increasing the quantity or improving the quality of its armaments or armed forces…’

• (Hedley Bull, 1961)

Causes and Consequences

• Causes/Drivers: - technological imperative - domestic (military-industrial complex) - external threat (action-reaction)

• Termination: - agreement (tacit/explicit); diversion; exhaustion - violence (especially if linked to power transition)

Defense Expenditures by the European Powers, 1870-1913

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1870

1872

1874

1876

1878

1880

1882

1884

1886

1888

1890

1892

1894

1896

1898

1900

1902

1904

1906

1908

1910

1912

Year

£ m

illi

on

Britain

Italy

Germany

Russia

USA

France

Austria

Anglo-German Naval Race

Naval Construction of the European Powers, 1900-1913 (£mn, current prices)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913

Year

£ m

illio

ns

Britain

France

Russia

Austria-Hungary

Germany

Italy

Naval Race Timeline

• 1898/1900 German Navy Laws• 1904/05 British Naval Redeployment• 1906 HMS Dreadnought• 1908 German Dreadnought Law• 1908/1909 Acceleration Crisis• 1912 German Reorientation

Land Arms Race, 1910-14

Europe in 1914

Land Race Timeline

• 1910 Russian Military Reorganization• 1912 German and Austrian Army Laws• 1913 German Army Law; French Three-Year

Law• 1913 Franco-Russian Railway Agreement• 1914 Russian ‘Great Programme’

Europe, 1933-39

Europe in 1939

Cold War

US and Soviet Spending

Cold War Delivery Systems

Chinese D21 Missiles

Post-Cold War Arms Spending (SIPRI - $mn constant, 2011)

• US 1990: 527,174; 2000: 394,155; 2003: 507,781; 2010: 720,282; 2013: 618,681

• PRC 1990: 19,820; 2000: 37,040; 2003: 57,390; 2010: 136,239; 2013: 171,831

• SU/Russia 1990: 291,082; 1998: 20,800; 2003: 39,100; 2010: 65,807; 2013: 84,864

• UK 1990: 58,824; 1999: 46,775; 2003: 57,005; 2009: 64,297; 2013: 56,231

Post- Cold War Armaments