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Draft Poway: EDSP Appendix B Opportunity Site Analysis

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Poway EDSP Task 4.0 - Opportunity Site Analysis DRAFT Prepared for: The City of Poway Prepared by: Applied Development Economics, Inc. 255 Ygnacio Valley Road, #200, Walnut Creek, CA 94596 925.934.8712 99 Pacific Street, #200 J, Monterey, CA 93940 831.324.4896 www.adeusa.com May 5, 2016
Transcript

Poway EDSP

Task 4.0 - Opportunity Site Analysis

DRAFT

Prepared for:

The City of Poway

Prepared by:

Applied Development Economics, Inc.

255 Ygnacio Valley Road, #200, Walnut Creek, CA 94596 925.934.8712

99 Pacific Street, #200 J, Monterey, CA 93940 831.324.4896

www.adeusa.com

May 5, 2016

{Intentionally Left Blank}

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s , I n c .

TTAABBLLEE OOFF CCOONNTTEENNTTSS

Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1

Methodology for Determining Opportunity Sites .......................................................... 1

Summary of Potential Opportunity Sites .................................................................... 2

Employment Opportunity Sites (E1-E16) ................................................................... 4

Poway Road Commercial-Retail/Mixed Use Sites (Area 4, Sites C1-C36) ...................... 19

Other Commercial Opportunity Sites (C26, C37-C39) ................................................ 25

Recreation/Entertainment Sites .............................................................................. 35

{Intentionally Left Blank}

P a g e 1 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

INTRODUCTION

In consultation with City staff and based on data from interviews, previous and current city studies,

ADE identified and evaluated major existing and potential development sites in Poway, with a view to

identifying suitable locations to develop the business opportunities identified in the market analysis.

This analysis mainly addresses employment generating opportunities, as the Poway Rd. Corridor Study

will be evaluating major retail and commercial development opportunities along Poway Rd. The site

analysis utilizes real estate market characteristics of the sites, infrastructure constraints, and other

criteria as outlined below to determine the relative opportunity to the City of Poway.

METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING OPPORTUNITY SITES

The analysis provided in this component of the EDSP utilizes the following outline:

1. Focus is primarily on sites for target employment; commercial and mixed use sites are identified

by Poway Rd Corridor Study. Residential is not reviewed, with the exception of potential mixed

use sites in the Poway Rd corridor.

2. Identifies potential supply of vacant, underutilized sites (From Corridor Study, interviews, ADE

research)

3. Surveys market for demand trends favorable for expansion/attraction of uses/development

a. Target employment – identifies key industry clusters and likely business types (from ADE

market and economic analysis)

b. Commercial – identifies sales tax generators to fill leakage; identify hotel demand; identify

entertainment and restaurant demand (relies on Poway Rd Corridor Study, broker/developer

Interviews)

c. Mixed use – identifies key retail/entertainment or employment zones or nodes to support

commercial/residential mix (relies on Poway Rd Corridor Study, broker/developer interviews,

market data research)

d. Identifies current real estate financial and other metrics in market - vacancy rates, rents,

sales, absorption, etc. (From Poway Rd Corridor Study, ADE market data research,

interviews with brokers/developers)

4. Match demand opportunities with potential sites

a. For each opportunity area above, identifies potential industry uses or businesses for specific

vacant or underutilized sites

b. Identifies metrics to ensure market transaction for development is within reasonable range,

i.e., sales price, rents, etc., and where current gaps may exist

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 2

SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES

Provided in Table 4.1 below, is a summary of the potential opportunity sites throughout the

community, and includes key information about each site. The column labeled “Economic Development

Objective” relates to benefits of development of the property toward general economic development

objectives, namely, will it generate jobs, revenue, commercial revitalization, or recreation/community

amenity.

TABLE 4.1

SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES

OPP SITE #

GENERAL

LOCATION CURRENT LAND

USE/ZONING PROPOSED

LAND USE/ZONING ED OBJECTIVE1 ACRES

E1-E2 South Poway Business Park

Vacant – zoned Light Industrial

Business park zoning – Light Industrial

Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales

6.12

E3-E12 South Poway Business Park

Vacant – zoned Light Industrial

Business park zoning – Light Industrial

Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales

7.37

E13 South Poway Business Park – east end

Vacant – zoned Industrial Park – Known as Parkway Summit

Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility

Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales

TBD

E14 South Poway Business Park

Vacant – zoned Industrial Park – Known as Ridge View

Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility

Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales

TBD

E15 South Poway Business Park

Automobile Storage Lot

Light Industrial zoning; automobile storage; long term – manufacturing, office, distribution or other active business park use

Revenue, Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales

TBD

E16 South Poway Business Park

Vacant – east end of Park up to Sycamore Canyon Rd. Light Industrial, South Poway Commercial, and Open Space/1 Dwelling unit zoning

Commercial, Light Industrial, Open Space

Employment Generation, Business to Business Sales, Recreation/Community Attraction

103.76

Area 4 Poway Road Corridor

Varies Varies Commercial revitalization, revenue generation

TBD

C26

North Poway – near Pomerado Hospital

Vacant - currently zoned Commercial Office

Commercial; Medical office or patient/employee housing; hotel

Commercial revitalization, revenue generation

2.06

C37 South Poway Business Park

Vacant; adjacent to Hampton Inn; zoning is South Poway Commercial

Restaurant; Commercial Commercial revitalization, revenue generation

1.23

C38 Old Poway Park

Vacant; Open space, recreation

Commercial, restaurant, hotel

Visitor Serving Commercial

1.08

C39 South Poway Commercial; general Institutional, medical, residential

Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue generations

1.7

South Poway Mining Site

South Poway Mineral Resource Extraction

Open space, recreation, conservation, light industrial

Recreation/ community attraction/ entertainment

TBD

P a g e 3 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

TABLE 4.1

SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES

OPP SITE #

GENERAL

LOCATION CURRENT LAND

USE/ZONING PROPOSED

LAND USE/ZONING ED OBJECTIVE1 ACRES

Stone Ridge Country Club

North Poway Open space, recreation

Open space, recreation, restaurants,

Recreation/ community attraction TBD

Lake Poway

North Central Poway

Open space, recreation

Open space, recreation, restaurants, entertainment

Recreation/ community attraction/ entertainment TBD

1 Refers to overall ED strategy, (i.e., revenue generation, business to business sales, commercial revitalization,

employment generation, and recreation/community attraction)

Below, illustrated in Figure 4.1, is a map that that identifies these sites throughout the community,

concentrated primarily in three areas: South Poway Business Park; Poway Road; North Poway.

FIGURE 4.1 CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

SUMMARY OF SITES

Commercial Sites Commercial Sites

Employment Sites

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 4

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY SITES (E1-E16)

Following is a description of each potential opportunity site for Poway, utilized primarily for

employment generating uses, such as manufacturing, sales, distribution, general office, etc. These

sites are ideally drawn from the target industries as identified in the previous Market and Economic

Analysis.

It is helpful to preface this section with a brief summary of the overall market dynamics for these

product types in Poway, primarily at the South Poway Business Park. This information comes from

interviews with local brokers supplemented by market data and information from other recent market

reports conducted for the City2:

Overall in San Diego County, the market for industrial, flex R&D and office is improving,

particularly in comparison to previous years after the recession. In Poway, supply for light

industrial, flex R&D, and office use is limited compared to other business parks competing with

the South Poway Business Park, such as Mira Mesa, Kearney Mesa, Rancho Bernardo, Escondido,

Sorrento Valley, Sorrento Mesa, Scripps Ranch, and more distantly Carlsbad and Torrey Pines.

Many of these parks, however, are also building out their lot inventory as demand increases

across San Diego County, creating opportunities for Poway, particularly in industrial or offices

uses that complement existing businesses (such as defense and aerospace, insurance/financial

services, or engineering/ contracting);

Net absorption has been positive and growing in the County across the industrial, flex R&D,

and office product types. For Poway, there is very little absorption in any of the three categories,

given the little new construction or inventory to come on line.

Vacancy rates for industrial product across the county continues to be at 15-year low levels,

though First Quarter 2016 saw a little increase from the previous quarter; for Flex R&D, vacancy

rates are declining across the San Diego Region; for Office, vacancy rates are down, with

Rancho Bernardo posting the lowest rate (8.07%) of any office submarket. For Poway, vacancy

rates are low overall compared to the general market for these three uses, most notably for

industrial space with Poway having the lowest vacancy rates in the I-15 corridor, particularly

compared to Rancho Bernardo and Scripps Ranch.

Construction throughout the region has picked up in all asset categories, with Flex R&D seeing

its largest square footage under construction in 10 years, and with office building less but

recording four consecutive year over year increases in office square feet delivered, mostly in

Class A office product. For Poway, there has been little construction recently in any of these

categories, though an approximate 86,000 square feet of new product is coming on line soon in

industrial in the South Poway Business Park on Community Road.

2 Existing Conditions Assessment, Poway Road Corridor Study; VOIT Real Estate Services – San Diego, First

Quarter 2016; Cushman Wakefield.

P a g e 5 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

Rental and lease rates are up in all categories, and in the case of office, are reaching new

highs for the San Diego region, particularly when comparing first quarter 2015 to first quarter

2016. For Poway, warehousing lease rates are starting to trend up; office rates are comparable

to some surrounding areas, higher than Rancho Bernardo, but lower than the average for San

Diego County, and down some from first quarter 2015 but are trending up.

Land values/prices overall in San Diego County across all three product types continue to

increase. For Poway, land prices may be higher than the market can support with current rent

levels for office and industrial, though some new projects coming on line may push levels lower

to the point where leasing prices may be coming in line with levels to justify construction costs.

Much of the land inventory in the South Poway Business Park is controlled by a few owners,

which may put upward pressure on land pricing. Relatively few sales over the last several year

may also contribute to land price levels.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 6

Below, in Table 4.2, is a summary of some relevant market information for the City of Poway and

San Diego County:

TABLE 4.2

SUMMARY OF POWAY OFFICE, INDUSTRIAL/R&D FLEX MARKET TRENDS

POWAY VS. SAN DIEGO COUNTY

1Q2016 VS. 1Q2015

POWAY

1Q2016 POWAY

1Q2015

% CHANGE

1Q2016

VS

1Q2015

SAN DIEGO

COUNTY

1Q2016

SAN DIEGO

COUNTY

1Q2015

% CHANGE

1Q2016 VS

1Q2015

Vacancy Rates

Industrial 3.88% 2.42% 6.03% 4.10% 4.92% (16.67%)

Office 6.13% 7.66% (19.97%) 11.69% 11.98% (2.42%)

Flex R&D 2.34% 2.17% (7.08%) 8.75% 10.61% (17.53%)

Square Feet Vacant

Industrial 286,355 177,765 61.08% 5,900,958 7,235,795 (18.45%)

Office 79,977 99,863 (19.91%) 11,920,130 11,557,495 3.14%

Flex R&D 30,591 27,311 12.00% 3,981,528 4,605,025 (13.54%)

Lease Rates (average asking rate/month)

Industrial $.90 $.89 1.12% $.82 $.72 13.89%

Office $1.80 $1.85 (2.70%) $2.64 $2.43 8.64%

Flex R&D $1.36 $.80 70.00% $1.47 $1.37 7.30%

Under Construction (sf)

Industrial 0 70,918 - 499,939 127,780 291%

Office 0 0 - 524,652 919,731 (42.96%)

Flex R&D 0 0 - 1,032,350 618,000 67.05%

Net Rentable Square Feet

Industrial 7,372,384 7,341,577 .42% 143,934,011 144,346,986 (.29%)

Office 1,304,758 1,303,146 .12% 102,003,470 100,816,675 1.18%

Flex R&D 1,305,907 1,260,718 3.58% 45,527,581 45,415,202 .25%

Net Absorption

Industrial 119,801 131,679 N/A 13,373* 689,648 N/A

Office 8,875 (14,743) N/A 532,307 192,247 N/A

Flex R&D (8,742) (1,491) N/A 338,942 147,166 N/A

Source: Existing Conditions Assessment, Poway Road Corridor Study; VOIT Real Estate Services – San Diego, First Quarter 2016;

Cushman Wakefield.

*4Q2015 net absorption was over 600,000sf.

Following each opportunity site described below, is a site specific aerial map.

P a g e 7 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

E1 AND E2

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning Vacant – zoned Light Industrial

Proposed Use/Zoning Business park zoning – Light Industrial

ED Objective Employment generation, business to business sales

Owner Tech Business Center Ventures

Acres E1 - 3.53 ac; E2 – 2.59 ac

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals,

Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices,

Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and

Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments,

Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Market Dynamics These are likely key parcels for future business and employment

given current plans for development on E1 and parcels to the west

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints Small lot sizes may limit size of building/businesses who occupy

Summary: These two parcels off of Community Road and Kirkham Rd in the South Poway Business

Park are suited for business park/light industrial uses, particularly for those target industries and

business types noted above, as identified in the Market and Economic Analysis. The size of the parcels

could be a constraint to any larger development footprint, which does limit the square footage and

thus the size of business occupying the site.

Site E1 is currently planned to be incorporated into a property development application for 86,000 sf

of light industrial/business park buildings utilizing this property. This will provide some of the newest

business park space available in Poway and is being built essentially without pre-leasing

commitments.

E2 is currently vacant and would be suitable for a smaller business park use. Given current

development standards, it is estimated this site would accommodate approximately 50,000 square

feet of building (lot coverage requirement is 50% of net lot area) 3

3 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 8

FIGURE 4.2

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E1 AND E2

P a g e 9 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITES

E3 – E12

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning Vacant – zoned Light Industrial

Proposed Use/Zoning Business park zoning – Light Industrial

ED Objective Employment generation, business to business sales

Owner Tech Business Center Ventures

Acres 7.37 ac total for all parcels

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals,

Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices,

Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and

Packaging, Information Technology and Analytical Instruments,

Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Market Dynamics

Bundled together as a campus may provide an opportunity for sale

or lease. Smaller pads, however, could be attractive to growth

firms who supply major business park users (i.e., General Atomics)

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints Access is off side street (Paine) and not fronting major arterial

(i.e., Scripps Poway Parkway or Kirkham)

Summary: The advantage to this site is that it is one of the remaining vacant property within the

business park that is available, and could be bundled together to form a campus for a single user.

There may also be an opportunity to plan this site for smaller floor plates for emerging businesses that

are suppliers to the key industries in the business park, such as General Atomics. This site sits behind

the existing buildings on Gregg St. which may be an advantage to some users if they partner or are

tied to the businesses occupying that portion of the South Poway Business Park.

Given current development standards, it is estimated these sites collectively would accommodate

approximately 140,000 square feet of building (lot coverage requirement is 50% of net lot area) 4

Previous planning for the site anticipated ten separate parcels, though some lots appear to be fairly

small in size.

4 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 10

FIGURE 4.3

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E3 – E12

P a g e 11 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

E13

General Location South Poway Business Park – east end

Current Use/Zoning Vacant – zoned Industrial Park – Known as Parkway Summit

Proposed Use/Zoning Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility

ED Objective Employment generation, business to business sales

Owner HCP

Acres TBD

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals,

Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices,

Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and

Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments,

Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Market Dynamics Large, flexible lot is advantageous; current market sales pricing

may be a disadvantage

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints None

Summary: This lot is owned by HCP and has been planned for potential development scenarios

varying from three buildings to nine buildings, and from 330,000 sf to 450,000 sf depending on

various site configurations. This is one of the premier lots for economic development in the City

adjacent to General Atomics. There has been interest in this site in the past for a potential expansion

of existing or complementary uses. The lot size, flexibility, and location provide an advantage over

other sites in the South Poway Business Park, particularly for a single large user in need of a business

park campus. Another distinct advantage of this site is the potential to create a secured facility for

defense contracting.

In discussion with brokers and developers of property with familiarity of the San Diego region and the

South Poway Business Park, one potential disadvantage has been the marketing of the site at current

price levels. This price may be above current market levels for the surrounding region for this type of

property, and may be too high for current lease rates to justify this with construction costs.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 12

FIGURE 4.4

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E13

P a g e 13 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

E14

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning Vacant – zoned Industrial Park – Known as Ridge View

Proposed Use/Zoning Industrial Park zoning; potential for secured facility

ED Objective Employment generation, business to business sales

Owner HCP

Acres TBD

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals,

Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices,

Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and

Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments,

Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Market Dynamics Current market sales pricing may be a disadvantage

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints Site is long and narrow, which could constrain flexibility of use as

a campus versus individual building use. No access from the south

Summary: This property is a collection of four parcels and is owned by HCP and is currently being

marketed for site users. It has been planned for development with four buildings with a total building

footprint of approximately 395,000 sq ft. The far west parcel has been developed with an approximate

115,000 sf building that is leased out, leaving a total of 280,000 sf for future development. This

property is similar in its advantage as a potential secured campus for defense contracting or high tech

manufacturing, particularly with the southerly edge buffered by slopes and undevelopable property.

The disadvantage of the site, however, is that it is narrow, which could constrain flexibility of use as a

campus versus individual building use. In discussion with brokers and developers of property with

familiarity of the San Diego region and the South Poway Business Park, one potential disadvantage

has been the marketing of the site at current price levels. This price may be above current market

levels, compared with other properties found in the immediate region of the I-15 corridor or other

similar business parks in North and Central San Diego County.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 14

FIGURE 4.5

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E14

P a g e 15 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

E-15

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning Automobile Storage Lot

Proposed Use/Zoning

Light Industrial zoning; automobile storage; long term –

manufacturing, office, distribution or other active business park

use

ED Objective Employment generation, business to business sales

Owner City of Poway Successor Agency

Acres TBD

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

If no longer needed as automobile storage, Aerospace Vehicles

and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals, Communication Equipment and

Services, Medical Devices, Insurance Services, Education and

Knowledge Creation, Paper and Packaging; Information

Technology and Analytical Instruments, Business Services,

Distribution and Electronic Commerce

Market Dynamics City will receive 21% of sale proceeds, and could market the

property in the future to attract businesses

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints No southerly access, but site is large and flexible as to

configuration of buildings

Summary: The Successor Agency’s Long Range Property Management Plan requires this property be

sold. This property is a good candidate for acquisition by the City for continued use as a vehicle

storage lot. The vehicle storage lot plays a unique role by providing automobile dealerships with space

for vehicle storage. The current tenant is an association of dealerships and is not structured to own

land. Other buyers may be dissuaded by the fact that the property is encumbered by a lease which

could potentially (with the exercise of an option) be in place an additional ten years. Furthermore, as a

taxing entity entitled to a portion of the Successor Agency’s property sales, the City will receive 21%

of the sales proceeds. Should the vehicle storage lot no longer be needed, the property could be

utilized as a City facility, to attract business(es), or be sold.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 16

FIGURE 4.6

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E15

P a g e 17 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

E-16

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning

Vacant – east end of Park up to Sycamore Canyon Rd

Light Industrial, South Poway Commercial, and Open Space/1

Dwelling unit zoning;

Proposed Use/Zoning Undetermined

ED Objective Undetermined

Owner K&M Investments LP

Acres 103.76 ac

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types

Aerospace Vehicles and Defense, Biopharmaceuticals,

Communication Equipment and Services, Medical Devices,

Insurance Services, Education and Knowledge Creation, Paper and

Packaging; Information Technology and Analytical Instruments,

Business Services, Distribution and Electronic Commerce;

Commercial on Scripps Poway Parkway; Open space

Market Dynamics On eastern edge of business park with developable land in

between; likely later phases of business park development

Infrastructure Constraints Some of the developable portions of the site not served by utilities

yet

Site Constraints Canyon slopes cover most of the property; western end is likely

developable portion

Summary: Interesting longer term phase of Business Park. Slope constraints of the site likely

provide long term open space opportunity, whereas, western portion adjacent to opportunity site E-13

is likely developable area. This portion of site would likely come forward in the market as E-13

develops, and is best suited for a complementary business park use to E-13, plus a portion for

commercial as the zoning allows along Scripps Poway Parkway.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 18

FIGURE 4.7

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

E16

P a g e 19 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

POWAY ROAD COMMERCIAL-RETAIL/MIXED USE SITES

(AREA 4, SITES C1-C36)

In general, from review of the Poway Rd Corridor study material, discussions with brokers, and review

of market metrics, it appears there are a variety of opportunities for commercial revitalization along

Poway Rd. Such opportunities may require the assembly or combination of parcels, and rezoning.

The primary economic development objective of these sites would be commercial revitalization, and

land uses may include retail, service commercial including restaurants, entertainment, office, and

housing in a mixed-use setting. Some of these sites may be for expansion or relocation of existing

businesses, such as automobile dealerships. Accordingly, it is recommended that land use along

Poway Road allow flexibility to allow large commercial tenants, should such businesses expansion,

attraction, or retention opportunities arise. The Poway Road Corridor study notes sales leakage in

retail categories where some of this revitalization may address.

If review of the Poway Corridor study and from other sources, a comprehensive list of properties along

Poway Road can be identified for potential revitalization (either singularly or in combination). Figures

4.8 through 4.12 on the following pages, illustrate these potential sites. These sites are all contained

within Opportunity Area 4 as noted on the opportunity site map in Figure 4.1 at the beginning of this

section. Among the various Opportunity Areas identified by the Poway Rd Corridor Study, Area 4 one

stands out as a top prospect for private and public investment to achieve the goals of commercial

revitalization. As several of these properties are owned by the Successor Agency, Housing Authority

and City, this area represents an opportunity for City to utilize property with adjacent properties, or

alone to incentivize private development.

As noted in the Poway Rd. Corridor Study, development of many of these sites face a number of

challenges, including multiple owners, tenant leaseholds, aging facilities, and market dynamics where

rent levels may not justify investment in development. Also, there are properties where current cash

flows are positive, despite lower rent and discount oriented tenants, which can create a disincentive

for owners to invest in upgrades and redevelopment of the site despite higher rents and utilization.

POWAY ROAD CORRIDOR STUDY OPPORTUNITY AREA 4

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 20

1

FIGURE 4.8

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C 1 – C6

P a g e 21 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

FIGURE 4.9

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C7 – C10

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 22

FIGURE 4.10

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C11 – C21

P a g e 23 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

FIGURE 4.11

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C22 – C25

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 24

FIGURE 4.12

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C27 – C36

P a g e 25 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OTHER COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY SITES (C26, C37-C39)

In addition to employment generating sites, and areas along the Poway Rd Corridor, there are

additional sites that may be suitable for other commercial uses, including office and hotels. The

demand for such use is characterized in the Poway Rd Corridor Study documents and indicates there

could be some demand for specialty office (such as medical), demand for recreational uses and

amenities, but a lesser demand for hotel. Through interviews with brokers/developers, city staff, and

general market research, including review of the Poway Rd Corridor Study documents, three potential

properties have been identified by ADE as opportunity sites for commercial development (in addition

to other sites noted in the Poway Rd Corridor Study). These sites are described below.

OPPORTUNITY SITE

C26

General Location North Poway – near Pomerado Hospital

Current Use/Zoning Vacant - currently zoned Commercial Office

Proposed Use/Zoning Medical office or patient/employee housing; hotel

ED Objective Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue

generation

Owner City of Poway Housing Authority

Acres 2.06

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types medical offices; employee or patient housing; hotel

Market Dynamics

Owned by City Housing Authority so options exist for utilizing value

in land to stimulate investment; location to hospital is attractive

for medical related uses (either office or housing) or hotel

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints None

Summary: This lot may be ideal for a medical related use with adjacency to the hospital. Medical

offices, including primary and specialty care may be in demand. Also, the site could be suitable as

housing for employees of the hospital as more nurses and doctors are sharing duties throughout

medical systems and locations, and/or for patient housing for long term patient care, or family of

patients in longer term care procedures at the hospital. It is our understanding, however, that the

hospital does currently have vacant space within the main hospital buildings, so careful review of this

opportunity with the hospital administration would be prudent to determining its use as a medical

related purpose. According to the City’s adopted Housing Element, the Monte Vista site is targeted for

low Income affordable housing dwelling units.5 This site may also be suitable for a hotel use to serve

the hospital and north Poway (see further discussion below on hotels).

5 City of Poway, General Plan Housing Element, updated 2014

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 26

FIGURE 4.15

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C26

P a g e 27 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

Summary: As depicted in Figure 4.16, above, Poway is essentially in the I-15/Kearney Mesa trade

area for hotels, encompassing a 6 mile radius around Poway.6 The City’s three existing hotels are

economy and limited service. There may be an opportunity for an additional limited service hotel

(typically 3 star) in the sites noted above, namely, in the South Poway Business Park to capture

business users (within proximity to the Hampton Inn, see C-37), on Poway Rd in the Town Center area

to help revitalize that area, or adjacent to the hospital, to serve north Poway and families of hospital

patients and employees of the hospital (Opportunity Site C-26). There may be an opportunity for a

hotel on Poway Rd to be more boutique in nature, smaller and of higher service than a standard

limited service brand name hotel.

6 Poway Rd Corridor Study Draft 2015; PKF 2015.

FIGURE 4.16

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

HOTEL MARKET

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 28

TRADE AREA HOTELS

MAP ID NAME CITY RATING

1 Hilton Garden Inn San Diego/Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel

2 La Quinta Inn San Diego Rancho Penasquitos San Diego 2-star hotel

3 Spring Hill Suites by Marriott San Diego-Scripps Poway

San Diego 2-star hotel

4 Residence Inn by Marriott Scripps Poway Parkway San Diego 3-star hotel

5 Best Western Country Inn- San Diego, Poway Poway 3-star hotel

6 Rancho Valencia Resort and Spa S.D.

County 5-star hotel

7 Country Inn & Suites by Carlson-San Diego North San Diego 3-star hotel

8 Residence Inn By Marriott Sorrento Mesa San Diego 3-star hotel

9 Courtyard by Marriott San Diego / Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel

10 San Diego Ramada Poway Poway 2-star hotel

11 The Inn At Rancho Santa Fe S.D. County

4-star hotel

12 Morgan Run Resort & Club S.D.

County 3-star hotel

13 Best Western Inn Miramar San Diego 3-star hotel

14 Rancho Bernardo Inn San Diego - A Golf and Spa

Resort San Diego 4-star hotel

15 Residence Inn by Marriott Rancho Bernardo Carmel

Mt. Ranch San Diego 3-star hotel

16 Courtyard by Marriott San Diego Sorrento Mesa San Diego 3-star hotel

17 Radisson Suite Hotel Rancho Bernardo San Diego 3-star hotel

18 Quality Suites San Diego - Miramar San Diego 2-star hotel

19 Doubletree Golf Resort San Diego San Diego 3-star hotel

20 Homestead San Diego - Sorrento San Diego 2-star hotel

21 Four Points by Sheraton - San Diego San Diego 3-star hotel

22 Rancho Bernardo Inn San Diego 4-star hotel

23 Hampton Inn & Suites San Diego-Poway Poway 2-star hotel

P a g e 29 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

C37

General Location South Poway Business Park

Current Use/Zoning Site C-37 – Vacant; adjacent to Hampton Inn; zoning is South

Poway Commercial

Proposed Use/Zoning Restaurant

ED Objective Commercial revitalization, revenue generation

Owner City of Poway Successor Agency

Acres 1.23 ac

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types Commercial; restaurant

Market Dynamics Adjacency to Hampton Inn, and corner location makes it attract

for commercial use

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints None

Summary: This site seems best suited for a commercial use, such as a restaurant or gas station to

service the business park employees and guests of the Hampton Inn. It location on a corner of Scripps

Poway Parkway allows it good site visibility, which may make the gas station more viable. A gas

station would require a CUP under the zoning. The retail leakage study in the Poway Rd Corridor

study, however, does not indicate leakage demand in this retail sector, but it appears there are few

gas stations on Scripps Poway Parkway. Given the ownership by the Successor Agency, there is an

opportunity to utilize the land value as an incentive in the private investment for development, if

warranted. Below is the aerial map for C-37.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 30

FIGURE 4.17

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C37

P a g e 31 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

C38

General Location Old Poway Park

Current Use/Zoning Vacant - Open Space Recreation

Proposed Use/Zoning Commercial; restaurant; hotel

ED Objective Visitor Serving Commercial

Owner City of Poway

Acres 1.08

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types boutique hotel; specialty restaurant

Market Dynamics Owned by City, weekend destination for weddings, Farmer's

Market, and special events.

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints Open space designation

Summary: Old Poway Park was built to create the ambiance of the “turn-of-the-twentieth-century”

setting. It includes historic Poway buildings and a train barn to house a classic 1938 Fairmont Speeder

steam engine, ore cars, and an 1894 L.A. Yellow Trolley. Each year, more than 23,000 people

participate in special events at Old Poway Park. Annually, nearly 55,000 riders enjoy the train and

more than 11,000 visitors attend the museum. Park facilities are rented for more than 500 events. In

addition, the City leads more than 1,500 schoolchildren through historical tours. Besides high daily

use, the park is a favorite spot for weddings and hosts special community events including Old

Fashioned Fourth of July, Summer Concert Series, Once Upon a Hallowe’en, Tour de Poway,

Rendezvous in Poway, Veterans Day, Christmas in the Park, Standard Flower Show, Train Song

Festival, Community Band Festival, and the Sam Hinton Folk Festival. The Poway Farmers Market is

located on Midland Road every Saturday, creating a pedestrian-friendly shopping and entertainment

experience in the Old Poway Park area.

A public parking lot located across Midland Road, to the east of Old Poway Park, presents an

opportunity to enhance the range of activities, services, and accommodations at Old Poway

Park. Examples include themed restaurants and Victorian themed boutique hotel. The graded parking

lot consists of five parcels and is improved with asphalt grindings, box trees, and minor drainage. This

lot accommodates day use parking for Old Poway Park and parking for community events, the weekly

Farmers Market, and the Midland Road Street Fair.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 32

FIGURE 4.13

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C38

P a g e 33 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

OPPORTUNITY SITE

C39

General Location South Poway

Current Use/Zoning Commercial General

Proposed Use/Zoning Institutional, medical, residential

ED Objective Commercial revitalization, employment generation, revenue

generation

Owner City of Poway

Acres 1.7

Potential Target

Industries/Business Types medical offices, employee or patient housing

Market Dynamics Owned by City

Infrastructure Constraints None

Site Constraints Historic designation

The Historic Big Stone Lodge, located at 12237 Old Pomerado Rd. consists of a former restaurant

known as Topsy’s Roost, and a former gas station/residence, all of which are over 75 years

old. Pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act, buildings over 50 years old are considered

potentially historic and the City designated the Big Stone Lodge site as locally historic in May

1991. The site includes many mature oak and sycamore trees; some that date back to the

construction of the Lodge. To preserve and enhance the historic character of the area, and provide an

additional recreational amenity through which to portray the site’s history, the City designated Big

Stone Lodge as a passive historic park.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 34

FIGURE 4.14

CITY OF POWAY, EDSP, OPPORTUNITY SITE ANALYSIS

C39

P a g e 35 | A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s

RECREATION/ENTERTAINMENT SITES

There are several sites in Poway where reutilization or further revitalization may create opportunities

to meet economic development and community development objectives, particularly around

enhancing recreation and entertainment opportunities and uses in Poway. Below is a description of

those sites.

South Poway Mining Site

It is our understanding that the current mineral resource extraction site south of the South

Poway Business Park in Beeler Canyon may be ceasing operations in the near future. If this is

the case, it may be advantageous for the City to discuss with the property owners potential

future uses as contemplated in the Vulcan Materials Reclamation Plan and CUP, with a focus as

recreation site to complement Lake Poway as regional destination recreation. It is our further

understanding that some planning concepts have been discussed before for this property,

including restoration of Beeler Creek as a recreation corridor, and creation of a larger open

space in the center of the mining pit area once reclamation is completed and designated as

Natural Open Space.7

These recreation uses could be passive or active, depending on the demand for additional soccer

or baseball fields in the region. Another form of active recreation could be an outdoor climbing

wall or venue, which is fairly unique in southern California, and could be developed here on a

larger scale than most. Given the topography, this may be a location for an outdoor

amphitheater for entertainment. These uses, though may require zoning and/or general plan

amendments. Development concepts for this site also anticipate potential light industrial pads

just south of Kirkham Way, above this recreation area. Depending on their depth and size, these

could create additional site inventory for industrial uses, to help alleviate Poway’s shortage in

employment related sites.

Stone Ridge Country Club

It is also our understanding that there may be an opportunity for change or modification of use

at the Stone ridge Country Club. This is a significant piece of property in the northern part of

Poway, currently zoned open space/recreation. It is often difficult for golf course/country club

parcels to transform into other uses once housing has developed around them and the open

space designation in the general plan or specific plans has been provided and enjoyed by the

community. It has been suggested, however, the facilities may be used as a craft brewery,

winery, restaurants and/or an entertainment venue on the property to compliment open space

or golf uses. Such uses would help meet the desire of the community for further upscale

restaurants and entertainment venues.

Lake Poway

Lake Poway is a unique recreational asset for the City, and a strong regional draw. Similar to

the discussion above for Stone Ridge Country Club, there may be an opportunity at this location

to add a restaurant and/or other venue. An upscale restaurant, standing alone or with a winery

7 South Poway Specific Plan, Development Standards, Volume 2, Updated April 2014.

A p p l i e d D e v e l o p m e n t E c o n o m i c s | P a g e 36

or brewery use would add a complementary use to the recreation components of the lake, trails,

and open space. An entertainment venue, including an outdoor amphitheater is another

possibility. It would be advantageous as well to have any of these uses oriented on the property

with views of Lake Poway, if possible. As this property is owned by the City, the ability to

structure favorable concession leases, ground leases, or property sales exists to help incentivize

private investment.


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