Electric Commercial Vehicle Market

Strategic Analysis of the North American and European Electric

Commercial Vehicle Market

Sandeep Kar

Global Program Manager, Commercial Vehicle Research

Vishnu Muralidharan

Senior Research Analyst

With Special Guest

Jonathan M. Randall

Director, Sales & Marketing

Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation

June 16, 2010

22

1950s Urbanization

2000s Suburbanization

2015s Network City

2020s : Branded Cities

� Hybrid/electric LCVs deliver peak efficiency and cost benefits in intra-city

areas.

�HCVs, long-haul vehicles, and inter-modal transportation centers support

hub-and-spoke logistics infrastructure.

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

Creation of the historic centre and districts

Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the

urban sprawl

Ring Road Motorway, Living

Areas growing

outside the ring

road as seen in London

In the Developed World: Increasing Trend of De-Urbanization - Polarization of Commercial Vehicle Classes and Rising Demand for Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles

Source: Frost & Sullivan

33

Smart Cities - Replacing “GREEN” with “SMART”

These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ Mobility of the future

44

Basic

Small

High Medium

MAV & SUV

Van

Others

Low Medium

0

2

4

6

8

10

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Volume Share in 2009

Vehicle Purchase Cost Index for a CSO

Low

Medium

High

More space and comfort. Ideal for neighborhood

residential

Brand image for business customers

Ideal of city driving

Bubble Size: 2009 Carsharing Vehicles Volumes

Market for Carsharing: Market Share of Carsharing Fleet Segments (Europe), 2009

531

3,470

2009 2016

Vans in Carsharing Fleet (EU)

• Vansharing is a growing trend within carsharing, catering to business goods and household transportation.

• Mobility of goods for urban delivery are successfully partnered within Vansharing (Examples in Turin, Bologna and London)

• Vansharing encompasses the same benefits offered to carsharing such as parking areas, monetary support as the vans always belong to the same carsharing organisations (CSO)

Smart Cities Will Feature Smart Companies Offering Smart Commercial Vehicle Mobility Options

Vansharing is a niche marketMobility Car Sharing Mercedes

Vito

Streetcar VW Transporter

CarCityClub FiatDoblò

5M3A1-18

Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: 1.5 Tonnes Payload in Return-to-Depot

Applications Driving First Wave of Penetration

GCW / GVW 1*

(ton)

Load

Capacity

(ton) Typical Application

Pure Electric

Attractiveness

3.5 1.5 Urban distribution

7.5 4 Urban distribution

12 7.2 Urban distribution

18 11 Inter Urban

distribution

26 17 Long distance

40 25 Long distance

Best Fit for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Depot-based urban delivery fleets cover known routes (typically under 100 miles) and they return to base every night where they can be recharged

Without Government funds EV do not have a future, as initial cost is very high

6

End-user Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of

Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles as Solutions

Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies

(N=109)

59%

17%

5%

5%

6%

17%

19%

20%

9%

6%

6%

6%

6%

12%

18%

22%

10%

10%

8%

8%

5%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel Efficiency

Reliability

Reduced Maintenance Requirement

Longer Lifecycle

Attractive Lifecycle Costs

Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions

Residual Value

Reduce Idling

Lower Weight Penalty

Low Level Emissions

Acces to Powertrain Support Infrastructure

#1 ranking #2 ranking #3 ranking

Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart.

Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most

important to your fleet from the following list below?

Hybrid /Electric Commercial

Vehicles- Offer Solutions But Pose Challenges Too!!

Solutions

Fuel Efficiency, Reduced

Maintenance, Low

Emissions, Reduce Idling,

Residual Value

Challenges

Reliability, Lifecycle Costs,

Effectiveness Under All

Operating Conditions,

Weight Penalty


7

Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Advancements in battery technology will

determine widespread acceptance of electric vehicles in commercial sector as return on

investment is a key decision factor


Electric Vehicles Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles (Europe), 2009-2016

Performance

Battery

Motor

Infrastructure Fast Charging

Permanent Magnets

In-Wheel Motors

Driving distance / Charge up to 90 kms

Charge time 6 ~ 8 hours

Zebra (Sodium Nickel Chloride)

Lead Acid Batteries

2009 2015 ~ 2017

On-Board Charging

~ 200 kms

Battery Swapping

2011 ~ 2013

Lithium Ion

~ 300 kms

~ 1 hour < 15 minutes

Battery Capacity up to 16 kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh and more

Ultra capacitors

8

EU and NA Electric CV Market: Battery Price Reduction Key for Volume Growth

Jury is Out on the Optimal Li-ion

Technology for Sustainable Growth

one thing is certain…But the Future

is Li-ion…Pricing Trends Shows

South-bound Slide

9

List of Major Electric Light Commercial Vehicles in Europe: Rapid Proliferation of OEMs

in both Sub and Plus 1 Ton Categories

European electric-LCV market mostly consists of conversions today

The sub 1 ton category payload consists mainly of regional manufacturers, new entrants such as Tata or Mahindra could compete in this sector with their low cost platform capabilities

10

List of Major Electric Light and Medium Commercial Vehicles: Ford has the advantage of

being an early entrant in the North American LCV market.

2010 expectedn2000*150

Freightliner Custom Chassis

(MT-45 walk in van chassis)

�nn7384150Smith Electric(Based on Avia D75 )

2011 expectedn

Passenger version of Transit Connect

Ford(Tourneo Connect)

2012 expectedn1500*100*Daimler

(Sprinter Electric)

2011 expectedn2041100*Boulder Electric

�n2000*65 ~ 75Electrorides(Based on Isuzu N series)

2010 expectedn2000*100Modec - Navistar

2010 expectednn2000*115

EVI(Based on Freightliner

Chassis)

2012 expectedn700*100*Fiat / Chrysler

(Fiat Doblo)

2010 expectedn750*80Ford

(Transit Connect)

Market StatusClass

2-3

Vehicle Weight Class

Class 4

Class 5

Payload(kg)

Range (miles)Manufacturer

Note: Where ever applicable payloads are taken from medium wheelbase panel van / box van body style *Estimated Figures � Available in market currently

11

European Electric LCV Market: Production Forecast – OEMs Keen to Learn from Early

Adopters’ Experience, 2013-2016 Expected to Emerge as Period of Rapid Proliferation

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unit S

hip

ments

(T

housand)

Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative

Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: Unit Shipment Forecasts for Electric LCV (Europe), 2009-2016

•The European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market is

expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivan scenario) with a total of 165,201 units sold in 2016

at a CAGR of 110%

•Supermarket, parcel delivery, local municipals are likely be

the first adopters of these e-LCV.

•The above forecasts includes only car derived vans, Vans and Light Trucks that have a GVW of 3.5* tonnes

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Ford


Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: OEM Model timeline for e-LCV (Europe), 2009

Daimler

e-LCV Model Timeline

0 10025 50 75

2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe)

2010 20142011 2012 2013

Transit

Connect

0 10025 50 75


2010 20142011 2012 2013

Sprinter


Vito

Renault

0 10025 50 75



2010 20142011 2012 2013

Kangoo

12

North American Electric MCV Market: Class 4, seem very attractive for electrification

as intra city logistics distribution application perfectly suit electric vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unit S

hip

ments

(T

housand)

Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative

North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Unit

Shipment Forecasts for Electric MCV (2009 ~ 2016)

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

•The North American Electric Medium Commercial Vehicle Market is

expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivanscenario) with a total of 26,635 units sold in 2016 at a CAGR of 154%

•The above forecasts includes only Class 4,5 & 6 vehicles comprising

mainly of utility and logistics and delivery vehicles. The NA market is

likely to see a large share of e-MCV as most of the vehicles in this

class are best suited for electrification with their deployment in urban

distribution

Boulder Electric

Freightliner

North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: OEM Market

Share for e-MCV (2009)

Navistar

0 10025 50 75

2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America)


2010 20142011 2012 2013

x

0 10025 50 75



2010 20142011 2012 2013

Boulder

van

0 10025 50 75



2010 20142011 2012 2013

Mt-45 chassis

13

Since EV is going to be leasedtelematics can be bundled as standard

product and included in lease plan (hidden)

EV will resemble commercial vehicle modelwhere OEMs and fleet owners will use

RVD / prognostics to better manage vehicles

Services like state of charge, bookingcharging station requires new telematics

through connectivity – critical services

Electricity usage needs to be monitoredand EV drivers need to be billed – telematics

is going to be instrumental

Telematics is still an option and the high

cost of systems and services are transferred

to end consumer in open manner

Remote vehicle diagnostics including

elements like remote supervision and Pro-active maintanence are still niche

Real time services require connectivity

and conventional users are not ready to pay

for such services as they see little value

Low degree of applicability of real-time 2 way

communication for billing and payments

Impact of New Business Models like Leasing and

Rentals

Need for Diagnostics for

Better Maintenance

Enabling Real Time Financial Transactions

Need for New Types of Services

Conventional Vehicle Electric VehicleKey Factors

Overall FitLow High

1 52 3 4

Low High

1 52 3 4

Overall Fit of Telematics and Connectivity Within Electric Vehicles is Driven by Solid Use Cases Largely Absent for Conventional Vehicles

14

Three studies were conducted simultaneously for both Europe and North America, providing a holistic view of Customers Requirements from EV CVs

Fleet Drivers Fleet Managers• Driving Habits (including distance

travelled, number of trips per day,

parking location, parking duration, weight

carried etc)

• The influence that drivers have in the

purchase of their fleet vehicle and their

attitudes and needs in relation to EVs

• Key decision makers in the choice of

their business fleet vehicles

• Understanding of the factors they

used to choose fleet vehicles and their

views and attitudes towards EVs

• Forecast EV uptake within businesses

and analysis of key elements such as

price, range and charging sensitivity

Fleet Drivers & Fleet Managers – Businesses of Focus:Building & Maintenance Public Sector Postal / Courier Car Rental Business Delivery Utility & Telecoms

Consumers

• Driving habits, priorities

for new vehicle purchase,

interest in EVs, and

response to Business

Models

European Study

1982 interviews, over 50% in

London, Berlin, Paris & Milan European Study248 Interviews: 50%

Passenger Vehicles, 25%

Small LCVs, 25% Large

LCVs

European Study

95 Fleet ManagersNorth American Study

1769 interviews, equal split

between Northeast, Midwest,

South and West regions.

North American Study – in progress

153 interviewsNorth American Study – in progress

80 Fleet Managers

15

Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Fleet Profiles and Interest in Electric Vehicles in

Europe – Government Fleets and Public Fleets Showing Highest Degree of Interest in Electric

Sector

16

Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Summary of LCV Customer Profiles United Kingdom –Customers Willing to Bear Additional 10-15% Price Premium to Obtain Electric LCVs.

LCV Fleet Customers(Interviewed for Consumer Study)

Current Fleet Size�% of EV’s in Fleet

Customer Brand preference

for e-LCVsInputs on Business Model

Vehicle Spec. Requirement

TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles�<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)

�e-LCV= ~30-60

Business Delivery Services

Government

Government


Postal & Courier Services

Utility

Weight Requirements

Normal Load carried is around 760-860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter

TOTAL: ~320 vehicles�e-LCV= 2%

NO BRAND

PREFERENCE

Height : 1950 mm

Width : 1850 mmLength : 4100 mm

Capacity : 13 to 15 m3

• Business case review

needed

• Ready to spend ~10% more

than standard diesel

version

Height : 1950 mm

Width : 1850 mm

Length : 4100 mm


TOTAL: ~700 vehicles�e-LCV= 2.8%


needed

• Ready to spend ~10%-15%

more than standard diesel

versionFord Transit

TOTAL: 12 vehicles�e-LCV= 2 Vehicles



version

Capacity and load carrying

capacity is critical.

TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers

is required

• Likely to shift towards H2

Fuel cell vehicle

NO BRAND

PREFERENCE

TOTAL: ~3,000 vehiclesCapacity and weight requirements

Passenger Cars = min 4

seats, 4 door

CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes

Essential to buy from a

leading brandNA

NA

LCV Fleet Customers(Interviewed for Consumer Study)

Current Fleet Size�% of EV’s in Fleet

Customer Brand preference

for e-LCVsInputs on Business Model

Vehicle Spec. Requirement

TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles�<1% (below 2.5Tonnes)

�e-LCV= ~30-60


Government

Government


Postal & Courier Services

Utility

Weight Requirements

Normal Load carried is around 760-860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter

TOTAL: ~320 vehicles�e-LCV= 2%

NO BRAND

PREFERENCE

Height : 1950 mm

Width : 1850 mmLength : 4100 mm



needed



version

Height : 1950 mm

Width : 1850 mm

Length : 4100 mm


TOTAL: ~700 vehicles�e-LCV= 2.8%


needed

• Ready to spend ~10%-15%

more than standard diesel

versionFord Transit

TOTAL: 12 vehicles�e-LCV= 2 Vehicles



version

Capacity and load carrying

capacity is critical.

TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers

is required

• Likely to shift towards H2

Fuel cell vehicle

NO BRAND

PREFERENCE

TOTAL: ~3,000 vehiclesCapacity and weight requirements

Passenger Cars = min 4

seats, 4 door

CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes

Essential to buy from a

leading brandNA

NA

17

39%

14%

0% 4%

63%

18%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Basic purchase

price

Cost of

ownership

across service

life of vehicle

Cost per mile

driven

Resale value Other

Consumer Analysis: U.S. Light Vehicle Fleet Market: “Cost of Ownership Across Service

Life of a Vehicle” is the primary basis for comparing vehicles

39%

Perc

en

tag

e o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

With respect to costs, how

do you normally calculate and compare vehicles?

Within how many years would you expect to recover the purchase/lease premium

of an EV from savings in operating costs?

• Based on 80 interviews with fleet

managers.• Other indicates all other financial

models that fleet managers may be using; Further information on these models is not available.

• Percentages may not add to 100 since they have been rounded off.

4.3

4.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Mean

Median

Number of Years

• Based on 80 interviews with

fleet managers.

• Based on interviews with 80 fleet managers

18

Yes

47%

No

53%

All Respondents

Question 34. When purchasing your current fleet did you consider and EV- LCV Fleet Managers

Building and

Maintenance

3%

Business

Delivery

Services

16%

Government

24%

Postal and

Courier

19%

Taxi or

private hire

19%

Utility or

Telecoms

19%Building and

Maintenance

31%

Business

Delivery

Services

19%

Government

11%

Postal and

Courier

14%

Taxi or

private hire

6%

Utility or

Telecoms

19%

� From the sample of LCV Fleet

Managers who said they had

considered an EV in their fleet- it is

the Government and the Utility & Telecoms sectors that have been

the most responsive to EVs

� It can be seen that the Building &

Maintenance industry have been

the most resistant to choosing EVs

as part of their fleet

Consumer Analysis: About half of the LCV managers interviewed have already considered EVs

as part of their fleet. With further models tailored to fleets, this number will increase.

* Based on 68 Fleet Manager interviews (those who have LCV vehicles n their fleet)

19

In the End…………………………..It is All About the Box!!!!!

20

Electric Technology

21

FCCC is the leading chassis manufacturer of alt-fuel products, offering the widest array in all markets in which it operates

Compressed Natural Gas:

• Production since Mid-nineties

• Over 3,000 in service

• Current Program to replace Cummins B5.9G Engine for future product offering

FCCC: Walk-In Van Hybrid – Alternate Fuels History

Hybrid Electric:

• Introduction in 2001 with joint development project with FedEx, Eaton, and Environmental Defense

• Over 600 currently operating in revenue producing service and recently surpassed the 5,000,000 mile milestone

• Released new features including: Low-Profile Transmission, Parking Pawl, Engine Idle-Off, Auxiliary Power Generators, and E-PTO.

Hydraulic Hybrid:

• Development of Advanced Engine Off hydraulic hybrid technology

• Joint development project with Parker Hannifin.

• Initial field and Dynamometer testing complete to validate 70% - 90% increase in fuel economy and customer technology acceptance.

• Initial orders received from several national fleets, including numerous orders through the Clean Cities initiative.

• Start of Production Q1 2011

22

• Powered by Enova’s 120 kW Plug-In Electric Drive System Technology and Tesla Lithium-Ion 55.5kWh Batteries (3 Packs) (Battery pack same as Daimler Smart Car program)

• Driving Range 100-150 miles (vehicle duty cycle /application dependant)

• Supports driver comfort and safety features such as AC, heating, ABS braking, and power steering

• 6 to 8 hours for a full charge with 220-volt Single Phase System from zero state of charge

● Vehicle tailored for applications with a daily route of 100+ miles per day in a urban delivery vocation.

● Continuing work with suppliers to lower costs, improving the ROI.

●Current energy costs with current diesel fuel prices can realize a $15,000 / year savings

•$0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas walk-in van

•Target ROI of 3-4 years

Electric vehicle development plans include new body features to add to aerodynamic – composite body to provide a complete vehicle to the customer.

FCCC: Walk-In Van Electric Vehicle

23

• External drivers like CO2 legislation, regulations by mega cities and customer requirements promote the topic of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs).

• Today the market potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is not yet assessable but could amount to significant volumes.

• Today, the major markets for battery electric trucks and vans are Europe and NAFTA. In Asia low activities are observable. China is expected to become an important market in the future as the government is strongly pushing the topic.

• The BEV market is a new, fragmented, fast growing market with many small niche players. A real consolidation of the market has not yet taken place.

• Battery electric trucks and vans cover nearly all short-distance applications

(daily mileage <125 Miles).

• Vehicle performances are considered acceptable despite 2-3 times higher

pricing compared to diesel motels.

• The battery technology is the most important driver for performances and

pricing.

Market

Overview

Technology

Status

FCCC’s Perspective

24

• Small companies dominate the market, also entering cooperation with

conventional OEMs.

• Most players are system integrators. Some non-conventional OEMs

produce their own base vehicles.

• A few of the key players in the market have already entered partnerships

with conventional OEMs.

• New suppliers are entering the market. Nearly all suppliers are non-

typical automotive suppliers with no global presence.

• There is no consolidation of the BEV suppliers but price pressure and

technology advancement will change the situation in the future.

BEV

OEMs

BEV

Suppliers

FCCC’s Perspective

25

Next Steps

� Register for the next The “GIL” (A Growth Driven CEO:

Critical Elements to the CEO's Partnership Strategy), (July

6, 2010) (http://www.frost.com/growth)

� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity

Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth

opportunities

(www.frost.com/news)

26

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For Additional Information

Johanna Haynes

Corporate Communications

Automotive & Transportation

(210) 247-3870

[email protected]

Craig HaysSales ManagerAutomotive & [email protected]

Sandeep KarGlobal Program ManagerAutomotive & [email protected]

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Electric Commercial Vehicle Market

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