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ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
COORDINATING PROFESSOR:
DANIELA SERBAN
ENACHE RALUCA
Group 1212, series B
Second year
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INTRODUCTION
The present work paper has as objective the quantification of
tourist circulation in Romania in the last decade. In order to do this, both
monetary and non-monetary (physical) indicators will be used, as well as
indicators of the labour force.
Monetary indicators:
The contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants branch to
the GDP (1989-2004);
Investments of the Hotels and Restaurants branch (1990-
2003);
The Tourism-Travelling Chapter from the Balance of
Payments (1988-2004);
Romanian tourists expenditures concerning travelling
(2003-2004);
Labour force indicators:
Population employed in the Hotels and Restaurants branch
(1990-2003);
The average number of employees engaged in the Hotels and
Restaurants branch (1990-2003);
Non-monetary indicators:
Indicators of accommodation capacity (1988-2004):
Existing accommodation capacity.
Functional accommodation capacity.
Indexes of net use of functional capacity.
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Indicators of inbound tourism:
Arrivals of foreign tourists.
Overnight stays of foreign tourists in accommodation
units.
The most important tourists emitting countries (for
Romania).
Indicators of domestic tourism.
Distributions of the indicators by areas (for 2004).
I. MONETARY INDICATORS:
Monetary (value) indicators give the best image that tourism as an
area of activity has in the economy of one country. Of highest relevance
is the contribution of the HOTELS and RESTAURANTS branch to the
GDP, as well as the investment level in this branch (as percentage from
the total investments in the national economy). Of most importance are
also the data provided by the Balance of Payments developed by the
National Bank of Romania, but also, more recently, expenditure
regarding tourist trips made by Romanian residents.
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I.1 The contribution of the HOTELS and
RESTAURANTS branch to the GDP between 1989 and
2004:
In the interval 1989-2003, an oscillatory of the contribution of the
Hotels and Restaurants branch to the GDP can be observed: from
1.07% in 1989 to 2.13% in 2003, with a maximum of 2.54% reached in
1998. The lack of an efficient and effective strategic vision of Romanian
tourism is very well reflected in the oscillations of the most important
macroeconomic tourism indicator.
1.071.34
1.912.17
1.81
1.39
1.84
2.52 2.39 2.54 2.51 2.372.11 2.13 2.13
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
YEARS
%
Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data)
In 2004 the contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants branch
to the GDP rose to 3.5% and the estimated value for 2005 is 2.9%.
As far as methodology is concerned it should be mentioned that
theese values have been obtained by dividing the Brute Added Value
corresponding to this branch, to the GDP value for each year.
Contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants
branch to the GDP between 1989 and 2003
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I.2 Investments of the HOTELS and
RESTAURANTS branch between 1990 and 2003:
In this case we also have an oscillatory evolution of the weight of
investments in this branch in the total investments in the Romanian
economy. The figures range from 0.59% in 1990 to 1.35% in 2003 with
maximum value of 1.68% reached in 1995.
The weight of investments in Hotels and Restaurants branch
from the total investments in economy between 1990 and 2003:
0.59
0.96
1.52
1.051.05
1.68
1.15
0.91
1.18
1.41
0.88
1.351.22
1.35
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
YEARS
%
Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data)
The predicted weighted of investments in tourism from the total
value of investments in Romanian economy for 2004 is 1.25% and for
2005 1.26%.
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I.3 The Tourism- Travelling Chapter from the Balance of
Payments between 1988 and 2004:
This chapter of the Balance of Payments is important for the
acknowledgement of cash inflows and outflows from international
tourism. Thus, under CREDIT the recorded values represent the
expenditure of foreign tourists in Romania, under DEBIT we have the
expenditure of Romanian tourists abroad and under BALANCE the
difference between the two.
Under these circumstances, it can be observed that until 1993 the
balance was positive (indicating that Romania was a tourist-receiver
state), but beginning with 1994 the balance becomes negative.
Source: National Bank of Romania
It needs to be mentioned that the high values , for both credit and
debit, between 1995 and 1997, are explained by the methodology used
then (which included the monetary exchange done by tourism agents).
Balance of payments-Travelling chapter
YEARS
CREDIT DEBIT BALANCE
Millions of
Dollars
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Also, it seems that in the last years the balance has incurred a
decreasing trend.
I.4 Romanian tourists expenditures concerning
travelling between 2003-2004:
This indicator computed by the Enquiry of Resident Tourists
Demand is the only indicator regarding tourist demand (this enquiry is
realised as an response to Romanian statistics alignment to EU
requests).
It can be observed that in 2004 there were no major changes
encountered (both for expenditures inside Romania and abroad). An
increase of 10.8% is registered in the total travelling expenditures, but
this slight increase is annulled by the rate of inflation (which has a close
value). In the structure, a higher increase is recorded for travelling
abroad (16.8%) compared to those inside the country (8.5%). Despite
this weight of the increase, the chart clearly states that the average
Romanian tourist travels mostly inside the country.
22,634 25,095
16,150 17,526
6,483 7,570
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004
ABROAD
INSIDE
TOTAL
Expenditures concerning resident tourists travelling
2003-2004
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Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data).
II. LABOUR FORCE INDICATORS:
The work force indicator very well represents the social
side of the tourist phenomenon. In order to ensure a correct comparison
of data between 1990 and 2003, indicators used will be engaged
population and average number of employed people from the Hotels
and Restaurants branch.
II.1 Population employed in the Hotels and
Restaurants branch between 1990 and 2003:
The analysis of the population employed in the Hotels
and Restaurants branch between 1990 and 2003, underlines the general
tendency: decreasing number of people employed in this branch(also
stated by the decreasing moving averages trend). This decrease comes as
a confirmation of the involution of tourist circulation and of the
difficulties that Romania faces both in economic and social area.
The total number of people engaged in this branch in 2003
represents 56.4% for the same indicator in 1990.
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Population employed in the ''Hotels and Restaurants'' branch 1990-
2003
186
213
175
131 136123
116130
98 100 9379
95105
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
YEAR
ThousandPeople
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
Despite this decreasing trend, it can be observed that in
the past two years there is a slight increase in this indicator, although in
2001 the lowest level was registered (79 000 employees- 42% of the 1990
value).
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II.2 The average number of employees engaged in
the Hotels and Restaurants branch between 1990 and
2003:
In the case of this indicator the situation is similar to the
one of the previous one (population employed in this branch), the two
indicators being highly correlated. This general decreasing tendency is
the result of several factors such as the decrease of number of tourists in
the investigated period, as well as the shutting down of several tourist
units.
Average number of employees employed in the ''Hotels abd
Restaurants'' branch 1990-2003
195172
122 112 124 115 109 11894 91 84
68 76 81
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
YEAR
Thousand
Peopl
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
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III. NON-MONETARY INDICATORS:
Non-monetary indicators are not less important then
monetary ones; they are considered to be key elements in the analysis of
tourism as a sector of activity that helps with the interpretation of
monetary information.
III.1. Indicators of accommodation capacity
between 1988 and 2004:
III.1.1 Existingaccommodation capacity:
The number of tourist units hasnt encountered high
variations between 1988 and 2004, except for 1993 when a more
dramatic decrease is registered (18.2% as for the previous year). After a
decreasing trend between 1988 and 1993, an increasing period follows,
excepting 2000. More interesting is the increase with 9.2% of the value in
2004 compared to 2003.
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Number of tourists units 1988-2004
3365 3490 3213 3329 32772682 2840 2905
2965 3049 3127 3250 3121 3266 33383569
3900
1000
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
YEARS
Source: National Institute of Statistics (data provide in 2004).
The situation is slightly different as far as number of
accommodation places is concerned. Here, after a rapid decrease
registered between 1989 and 1991,the indicator enters a trend of slow
decrease (almost unobservable on the graph). In this case a slight
increase( under 1%) is also seen.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
thousand
places
1988 1995 2002
YEARS
Number of accomodation places 1988-
2004
Source: National Institute of Statistics (data provide in 2004).
The analysis of the structure ofnumber of touristunits on
tourist areas is also interesting. For more relevance, the data analysed is
for the last available year, 2004.
Danube
Delta
3%
Seaside
22%
Other
locations
28%
Balneal
9%
Mountains
22%County
capital
16%
Here we have a relatively proportionate distribution
between the categories Other locations( 28%), Mountains(22%) and
Seaside (22%). County capital city can also be registered in this line.
Although, for the Danube Delta a smaller value is recorded( 3%).
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As far as touristaccommodation places are concerned, the
same situation is encountered: a high concentration of places on the sea-
side (42%).
Sea-side
42%
Mountains
12%Balneo
15%
Danube Delta
1%
County capital
city
17%
Other
locations
13%
The other areas have relatively similar weights: the county
capital area (17%), the balneal area (15%) and the mountains (12%). In
this case the Danube Delta has an even smaller weight 1%.
Source:National
Institute of
Statistics
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III.1.2 Functionalaccommodation capacity:
An evolution similar to the one for existing accommodation
capacity can be observed for functional accommodation capacity. After a
descending trend at the beginning of the 1990s, a stagnation period
follows, with low oscillations from one year to the other between 1994 and
2004. In other words, the accommodation available for tourists is more or
less the same as 10 years ago.
Functional accomodation capacity 1988-2004
7390
679
458
7702
2
6412
4
5587
0
5743
4
5325
5
5354
0
5363
9
5202
7
5316
4
5127
5
50197
5188
2
5075
2
5163
2
5398
9
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
YEARS
Thous
andplaces-day
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
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Compared to available accommodation capacity, functional
accommodation capacity has a somewhat different distribution, the
seaside having only 19.2% from the total value of functional
accommodation, situation that might be explained by the seasonality of the
tourist activity in this area. Higher weights are registered for the Balneal
area (21.2%) and county capital cities (27.7%), this areas not being
affected by seasonality. Another are affected by seasonality is the
mountain area with a weight of only 16.9%. The Danube Delta area has
the same small eight, here of only 0.8%.
Distribution of functional accomodation
capacity in 2004
19%
17%
28%
21%
1%14%
Seaside Mountains County capital
Balneal Danube Delta Other locations
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
III.1.3 Indexes of net use of functional capacity:
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The occupancy degree is highly correlated with the other
indicators, so it also registered an involution. In fact, this involution is
similar to the one of the functional accommodation capacity. An
interesting observation is that in the first studied year (1988) the
occupancy degree had a value double than the one in the last few years.
It has to be underlined that this indicators values are
annual averages, and its values oscillate from one month to another as a
result of the seasonality phenomenon. It can also be mentioned that, at an
international level, the values of this indicators are situated between 40
and 60%.
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
Indexes of net usage of functional capacity
1988-2004
YEARS
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If the distribution of this indicator on geographic areas is to
be analysed, it can be observed that values above the national average are
registered in the balneal are (48.6%) and in the seaside are (41.8%),
situation explained by the concentration of tourist activities in these areas.
A rather small value is registered in the mountain area 22.6%, value that
is under the potential that this area has. The same situation is encountered
in the Danube Delta (28.3%).
Index of net usage of functional capacity in tourist areas
2004
41.848.6
22.628.3
32.9
19.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Seaside
Balneal
Mountains
Danube
Delta
County
capitals
Other
locations
AREA
%
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
III.2. Indicators of inbound tourism:
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The analysis of inbound tourism (foreign tourists that visit
Romania ) is based on two categories of statistics: statistics from the
frontier (where information obtained regards the number of foreign
tourists based on country of origin and means of transportation ) and
statistics from the accommodation units.
III.2.1. Arrivals of foreign tourists:
Between 1988 and 2004 the arrivals of foreign tourists has
oscillated between 5.5 million in 1988 and 6.6 in 2004, with a minimum
value of 4.8 million registered in 1998 and 2002. Worth mentioning is the
increase of the number of tourists with over 1 million from 2003 to
2004,which, in structure, was almost entirely due to the increase of
number of tourists from Hungary.
Arrivals of foreign tourists (at fronteer) 1988-2004
5.54.9
6.55.4
6.45.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.2
5.3 4.9 4.85.6
6.6
0
2
4
6
8
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
YEARS
Millionpeople
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in Romania
in 2004.
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At a closer analysis of the country of origin of foreign
tourists visiting Romania, it can be seen that neighbour countries have an
important weight (71.5% from the total number of arrivals). Hungary is by
far the most important country from which tourists come to Romania
(39.44%). A relatively important weight is held by the Moldavian Republic
(18.4%).
Distribution of tourist arrivals by origin
countries in 2004
38%
18%
6%
5%
5%
4%3%
21%
Hungary Moldavia
Bulgaria UcrainGermany ItalySerbia&Montenegro Other Countries
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in Romania
in 2004.
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The evolution of tourist arrivals taking into consideration
means of transportation, between 1988-2004, shows that the most
frequently used means of transportation is road, with a more obvious
dynamic in the last period. Also, it should be mentioned that railway
transportation has registered a dramatic decrease: in 1988 it had almost
the same value as road transportation, but in 2004 it came to merely 4.7%.
Another interesting observation is that since 2000 transportation by air
increased rapidly, outrunning railway transportation.
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism inRomania
Tourist arrivals by means of transportation 1988-2004
ROAD
RAILWAY
AIR
NAVAL
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III.2.2. Overnight stays of foreign tourists in
accommodation units in Romania:
As far overnight stays of foreign tourists are concerned, the
situation is similar to that of arrivals in Romania, with slight differences:
the maximum level is reached in 1989 with 5.3 million and the minimum
level in 1999 with just 1.9 million stays. Another difference is that the
level of 2004 is not as impressive as in the case of arrivals (3.3 million- a
value similar to that of 1991).
Overnight stays of foreign tourists in accommodation
units
5137
5316
4238
3269
3141
2744
2758
2381
2288
2506
2207
1981
2149
2391
2534
2766
3333
0
2000
4000
6000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
YEARS
Thousand
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in
Romania
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Of high importance is also the distribution of overnight stays of
foreign tourists on areas. In this case, the urban area (county capital
cities) holds the leading position with a weight of 60.1%. The seaside
area has a weight of 17.8%. The balneal, mountain and other areas have
close values 5.5%, 8.1% and respectively 7.6%.
Distribution of overnight stays of foreign torists by areas in
200418%
59%
6%
8% 1%8%
Seaside County Capital Balneal
Mountain Danube Delta Other locations
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in
Romania
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First emittingcountry
Second emittentcountry
Third emittentcountry
Forth emittentcountry
Fifth emittent country Top 5emittentcountries
Years Country % Country % Country % Country % Country % %
1991 USSR 41,16 UK 8,01 Germany 6,99 Italy 6,00 Israel 4,40 66,55
1992 Moldavia 17,91 Russia 10,50 Germany 10,24 Israel 7,71 UK 7,50 53,85
1993 Germany 14,84 Israel 10,01 UK 9,87 Moldavia 8,69 Italy 8,46 51,88
1994 Germany 17,01 Moldavia 10,81 Israel 10,38 Italy 8,36 UK 7,59 54,15
1995 Germaniy 15,57 Israel 11,00 Moldavia 9,10 Italy 7,80 France 6,60 50,07
1996 Germany 13,66 Moldavia 12,88 Israel 11,72 Italy 7,78 Russia 5,83 51,87
1997 Germany 14,84 Israel 11,03 Moldavia 10,26 Italy 7,47 France 6,77 50,36
1998 Germany 15,72 Israel 10,68 Italy 8,91 MoldaviA 7,26 France 7,21 49,79
1999 Germany 15,63 Italy 10,93 Israel 10,02 France 6,84 UK 5,84 49,27
2000 Germany 16,69 Italy 11,74 Israel 9,62 France 7,41 USA 5,68 51,15
2001 Germany 18,87 Italy 11,70 Israel 9,99 France 7,61 USA 5,51 53,68
2002 Germany 19,64 Italy 12,50 France 7,80 Israel 7,38 USA 5,67 52,99
2003 Germany 19,31 Italy 12,68 France 7,91 Israel 6,34 Hungary 6,11 52,35
2004 Germany 15,76 Italy 12,63 France 7,50 Hungary 6,38 USA 6,04 48,31
The most important tourist emitting countries for
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Between 1991 and 2004, the most important tourist emitting
countries have been Germany, Israel, Italy, France, Moldavia, Russia,
USSR (1991), UK, USA and Hungary.
Germany is the irrefutable leader in this domain, starting with
1993, having a market share of 13.66% in 1996 and 19.64% in 2002,
going down in 2004 to 15.76%. this is after the first position had been
held by the USSR with 41.16% in 1991 and by the Republic of Moldavia
in 1992 with 17.91%.
The second position (challenger) is held by Italy, with a market
share that has registered a continuous increase from 1999 to 2004, from
10.93% to 12.63%. Israel- a traditional market for Romania even before
1989, has held the second position in 1993, 1995, 1997 and 1998 with
market shares ranging from 10 to 11%. Moldavia occupied this position
in 1994 and 1996.
France holds the third position in the last couple of years, with a
market share of over 7%. Israel held this position between 1999-2001
with market shares between 9 and 10% and between 1994 and 1996 with
over 10%.
Hungary, as tourists emitting country for Romania , had a
spectacular evolution, managing to occupy the forth position in 2004
with 6.38% (considering that before 2002 Hungary wasnt in the top 5
emitting countries).USA represents the fifth emitting country between 200 and 2004
(except2003), with a market share around 6%.
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III.3. Indicators of domestic tourism:
III.3.1. Overnight stays in accommodation units of
Romanian tourists:
The number of the overnight stays of Romanian tourists in the
accommodation units has registered a decreasing trend, with more
dramatic changes in the early 1990s and less dramatic in the last few
years. The exception is found in 2001 and 2003 when increases of 1.5%
and 2.8% registered. The maximum value was encountered in 1989 (4.8
million) and the minimum value in 2004(1.5 million).
Overnight stayts in accomodation units of Romanian tourists
457
41
48061
4031
4
28658
22935
22025
20538
21730
19550
17105
16076
15686
15498
15731
14743
15168
15079
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
YEARS
Thousands
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism inRomania
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The distribution of overnight stays of Romanian tourists by areas
in 2004 has the following characteristics: the highest weight is held by
the county capital cities (38.7%), the other options are divided among the
mountain area-16.8% , the seaside- 15.7%, balneal area 14.9% and
other locations 12.6%. a very small weight is held by the Danube Delta
1.3%.
Distribution of Romanian tourists' overnight
stays by areas in 2004
38%
17%
15%
16%
1%
13%
County Capital Mountains
Balneal Seaside
Danube Delta Other locations
Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism inRomania
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III.3.2.Number of trips of residents, in Romania:
The total number of trips rose to 8.7 million in 2003 and 10.5
million in 2004- meaning a 20% increase was registered. An slightly
higher increase was encountered for holiday trips, while business trips
registered a decrease of more than 20% in comparison to the previous
year.
8.78.1
0.6
10.510
0.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
MIL
LIONS
2003 2004
YEARS
Number of trips inside Romania made by
residents
TOTAL
HOLIDAY TRIPS
BUSINESS TRIPS
The evolution of overnight stays due to trips is similar to that of
trips, with the difference that the decrease regarding business trips is
more visible- 37%.
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CONCLUSIONS:
As a conclusion, a comparative analysis of inbound tourism
versus domestic tourism is necessary. Thus, between 1988 and
2004 a prevalence of domestic tourism is observed: from 90% in
19888 to 76% in 2004. In other words, in 2004, from the total
number of tourists arriving in Romanian accommodation units, 3
tourists out of 4 were Romanian. The general tendency was of
slight decrease of the weight of resident tourists, excepting the
years 1993 and 1995.
On the other hand, a positive remark can be made regarding
inbound tourism: the trend has been ascending (although slightly),
rising from 10% n 1988 to 24% in 2004.
Arrivals of residents and non-residents as % from the total
arrivals 1988-2004
89.689
.488
.486
.585
.288
.887
.889
.288
.4
85.585
.484
.482
.481
.279
.478
.175
.9
10.4
11.613
.514
.811
.212
.210
.8
14.514
.615
.617
.618
.820
.621
.924
.111.6
10.6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
YEARS
%
Residents Foreign tourists
Source: National Institute of statistics, Statistics Yearbooks.
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A higher relevance is obtained if taking into
consideration the number of overnight stays of residents and non-
residents in tourist units. In this case also, it can be said that
domestic tourism is dominant during the entire period (1988-
2004), with weights varying from 80 to 90%. The highest value
was registered in 1990 (90.5%) and the lowest in 2004 (82%).
As far as inbound tourism is concerned, it has a
lower weight, situation that can be explained by the smaller duration
of the stay of foreign tourists. In average, this value has oscillated
around the value of 10-11% between 19988 and 1999. After this
period it entered a slightly ascending trend, reaching the maximum
value (18%) in 2004.
Source: National Institute of statistics, Statistics Yearbooks.
Over-night stays of residents and non-residents as % of the
-
Residents
Non-
residents
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As compared to other European countries, Romania has a
low weight of inbound tourism. The average of the EU
countries was of 49% in 2003, whereas Romania had a level
of only 15.5%. Lower weights are generally registered in
countries which are tourist emitting, such as Germany
(14%), Finland (27%), Sweden (22%), but Romania
shouldnt register in this category.
The geographic position, the territorial configuration variation,
the rich history of the Romanian people and the socio-economic
contemporary development are the premises of the existence of a great
and diverse tourist potential, of resources of great value and complexity.
The Romanian tourist offer is characterised by appeal, diversity,
and complexity, with many opportunities of practicing various activities
by all kinds of tourists.
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