Energy at IIASA Overview & Highlights
Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General and Deputy CEO International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology
2014 #2 Nakicenovic
1986 1988
Energy, Climate and Sustainability Building on Past Successes
1981 1998 1978
2014 #3 Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
2014 #4 Nakicenovic
GEA Presentation to UNSG
2014 #5 Nakicenovic
Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air Pollution Health Impacts
2014 #6 Nakicenovic
Two Faces of the Athropocene
>3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity
>3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity
Internet Router Density (sample of 564,521 routers)
Data: Mark Crovella, Boston University, 2007
2014 #8 Nakicenovic
Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
>3 billion without access to clean cooking 1.5 billion without access to electricity
2014 #9 Nakicenovic
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3
GEA approach: Emissions inventories (GAINS) Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE) Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE) Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC)
SO2, NOx and PM2.5 Concentrations 2005
WHO health guidelines
2014 #10 Nakicenovic
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030
~2.6 million lives saved each year
Policies can contribute toward reaching WHO guidelines
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013)
(e)
2014 #11 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Microchip Commercial
aviation
television
Vacuum tube Otto engine
Electric engine Steam
engine
Nuclear- energy
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Global Primary Energy Historical Evolution
2014 #12 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway
2014 #13 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Global Primary Energy A Transformational Pathway
2014 #14 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 Baseline Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water Withdrawals A Transformational Pathway
2014 #15 Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals ●Universal Access to Modern Energy
●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2014 #16 Nakicenovic Source: DI Analysis, 2014
2014 #17 Nakicenovic
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
2014 #18 Nakicenovic
Modeling of Uncertainty and Risk
Source: Krey, Riahi, 2009
2014 #19 Nakicenovic
●Random walk model of invention discovery and stochastic combination with other technologies into energy chains and systems
●Evolutionary selection environment - uncertain increasing returns - market share gains f (rel. advantage) - externalities (stochastic C-tax)
●Evolution of complexity is function of learning rate and innovation impatience
●Complexity lock-in requires “gales of creative destruction”
The Evolution of Technological Complexity – Agent-based Approach Tieju Ma, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and W. Brian Arthur
2014 #20 Nakicenovic
Annual Energy Investments
Innovation RD&D
[billion US$2005]
Markets Formation
[billion US$2005]
Present Investments [billion US$2005]
Future Investments [billion US$2005]
2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030
Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 300-800
Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 300-1000
Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60
Total > 50 < 150 1250 1750–2200
Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011
Global Energy Investments
2014 #21 Nakicenovic
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
) Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
2014 #22 Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
● Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity
● Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs
Interactive Policy Tools (GEF) IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012
2014 #23 Nakicenovic
Climate Change
Maximum Fufillment Minimum Fufillment
Energy Security
Energy Affordability
Health / Air Pollution
Ancilliary Risks
Energy Access
GEA Pathway Analysis
Policy Tools for Decision Making
2014 #24 Nakicenovic
GEA-Database www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb
