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Nebojsa Nakicenovic

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Side Event, COP23, Bonn – 15 November 2017 Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology The World in 2050
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  • Side Event, COP23, Bonn 15 November 2017

    Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

    Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

    The World in 2050

  • Side Event, COP23, Bonn 15 November 2017

    Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

    Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

    The World in 2050: Grand Transformation Toward Sustainable Future for All

  • 2017 #3Nakicenovic

    Limiting global

    warming to

    well below

    2 degrees celsius

    Achieving net-zero

    GHG emissions by mid of

    the 21st century

    Regular review and

    improvement of nationally

    determined contributions

    Mobilizing $100

    billion a year in

    support by 2020

    through 2025

    TheParisAgreement

    Bildq

    uelle

    : http

    s://w

    ww.w

    mo.in

    t/med

    ia/

    Source: Schellnhuber, 2016

  • Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

    Carbon Law

  • Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

    Carbon Law

  • Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

    Carbon Law

  • Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

    Carbon Law

  • Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

    Carbon Law

  • IUCN, 2017 #9Nakicenovic Rockstrm

    Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013

    Wood for Cooking

  • IUCN, 2017 #10Nakicenovic Rockstrm

    Source: Modi, 2011

    Mobile Phones Charging

  • 2017 #11

    0.0%

    0.2%

    0.4%

    0.6%

    0.8%

    1.0%

    1.2%

    OnlyEnergySecurity OnlyAirPollutionandHealth OnlyClimateChange AllThreeObjectives

    TotalG

    lobalPolicyC

    osts(201

    0-2030)

    Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014

    Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

  • 2017 #12Nakicenovic

  • 2017 #13

    Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free

  • 2017 #14Nakicenovic

    Vision: Sustainable Future

    Tran

    sfor

    mat

    ion

    Diff

    usio

    n

    Legitimacy of BAU eroding

    Source: After WBGU, 2011

    The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries

    2030 2050

    Target space 2050+

    Target space 2030

    One backcasting storyline and many transformational pathways

  • 2017 #15Nakicenovic 15

    1850 19501900 2000 2050

    Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013

    Transformational Change

  • 2017 #16Nakicenovic 2017 #16Nakicenovic 16

    Darum geht zu allen Vlkern [] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

    Disruptive Change

    Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

  • THANK YOU

    [email protected]


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