| Date post: | 22-Jan-2018 |
| Category: |
Science |
| Author: | future-earth |
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Side Event, COP23, Bonn 15 November 2017
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050
Side Event, COP23, Bonn 15 November 2017
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
The World in 2050: Grand Transformation Toward Sustainable Future for All
2017 #3Nakicenovic
Limiting global
warming to
well below
2 degrees celsius
Achieving net-zero
GHG emissions by mid of
the 21st century
Regular review and
improvement of nationally
determined contributions
Mobilizing $100
billion a year in
support by 2020
through 2025
TheParisAgreement
Bildq
uelle
: http
s://w
ww.w
mo.in
t/med
ia/
Source: Schellnhuber, 2016
Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
Carbon Law
Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
Carbon Law
Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
Carbon Law
Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
Carbon Law
Rockstrm,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017
Carbon Law
IUCN, 2017 #9Nakicenovic Rockstrm
Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
Wood for Cooking
IUCN, 2017 #10Nakicenovic Rockstrm
Source: Modi, 2011
Mobile Phones Charging
2017 #11
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
OnlyEnergySecurity OnlyAirPollutionandHealth OnlyClimateChange AllThreeObjectives
TotalG
lobalPolicyC
osts(201
0-2030)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
2017 #12Nakicenovic
2017 #13
Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free
2017 #14Nakicenovic
Vision: Sustainable Future
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Source: After WBGU, 2011
The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries
2030 2050
Target space 2050+
Target space 2030
One backcasting storyline and many transformational pathways
2017 #15Nakicenovic 15
1850 19501900 2000 2050
Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013
Transformational Change
2017 #16Nakicenovic 2017 #16Nakicenovic 16
Darum geht zu allen Vlkern [] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.
Disruptive Change
Source: Campanale, Carobntracker
THANK YOU
