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Energy news from new base 04 december 975

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 04 December 2016 - Issue No. 957 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: Dubai's ENOC says to build 54 service stations by 2020 Emirates National Oil Co kicks off expansion plan with opening of new gas statioin in Dubai International Academic City … By Arabian Business Emirates National Oil Co (ENOC) has announced plans to build 54 new service stations over the next four years. The expansion plan kicked off with the opening of a gas station in the Dubai International Academic City area, the company said in a statement. Saif Humaid Al Falasi, Group CEO of ENOC, said: “Our service station expansion programme is part of ENOC’s wider growth strategy over the next few years to cater to the growing demand of our valued customers. "We continue to innovate in implementing new technologies to promote sustainability, enhance customer experience and ensure the highest standards of health and safety." As part of the five-year strategy 2016-2021, ENOC said in August that it will focus its efforts and investments on fulfilling Dubai's energy needs through the expansion of its refinery and service station network, building terminals storage capacity, and increasing its market share in the marketing of diesel, jet fuel and LPG. The company said it will focus on expanding capacities in order to support domestic energy demand including a 50 percent capacity increase of its Jebel Ali refinery to reach 210,000 barrels per day, as well as the construction of Project Falcon's 19km jet fuel pipeline extension to Al Maktoum Airport by end of 2018. "The Academic City service station is a model of a sophisticated service station that makes our customers’ lives easier and minimises environmental impact,” added Al Falasi. Other retail facilities at the station include ZOOM convenience store with Pronto, Autopro, Papa Murphys Pizza, Popeyes Chicken and McDonald’s.
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Page 1: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 04 December 2016 - Issue No. 957 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE: Dubai's ENOC says to build 54 service stations by 2020 Emirates National Oil Co kicks off expansion plan with opening of new gas statioin in Dubai International Academic City … By Arabian Business

Emirates National Oil Co (ENOC) has announced plans to build 54 new service stations over the next four years. The expansion plan kicked off with the opening of a gas station in the Dubai International Academic City area, the company said in a statement.

Saif Humaid Al Falasi, Group CEO of ENOC, said: “Our service station expansion programme is part of ENOC’s wider growth strategy over the next few years to cater to the growing demand of our valued customers.

"We continue to innovate in implementing new technologies to promote sustainability, enhance customer experience and ensure the highest standards of health and safety."

As part of the five-year strategy 2016-2021, ENOC said in August that it will focus its efforts and investments on fulfilling Dubai's energy needs through the expansion of its refinery and service station network, building terminals storage capacity, and increasing its market share in the marketing of diesel, jet fuel and LPG.

The company said it will focus on expanding capacities in order to support domestic energy demand including a 50 percent capacity increase of its Jebel Ali refinery to reach 210,000 barrels per day, as well as the construction of Project Falcon's 19km jet fuel pipeline extension to Al Maktoum Airport by end of 2018.

"The Academic City service station is a model of a sophisticated service station that makes our customers’ lives easier and minimises environmental impact,” added Al Falasi.

Other retail facilities at the station include ZOOM convenience store with Pronto, Autopro, Papa Murphys Pizza, Popeyes Chicken and McDonald’s.

Page 2: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

Qatar Shell Partnerships with local businesses to foster entrepreneurship Gulf times

Qatar Shell said it will integrate four local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) into its supply chain as it stressed that partnerships with local businesses “foster entrepreneurship at all levels.”

The four SMEs will sign contracts with Qatar Shell and Qatar Development Bank (QDB) tomorrow in an awarding ceremony – the fourth one since QDB and Qatar Shell partnered to launch the ‘SME Business Opportunities’ programme.

“The impact of this initiative is far more valuable than the value of the contracts on their own,” Amro Ahmed, Qatar Shell Commercial Excellence & Local Content and SME Manager at Qatar Shell, told Gulf Times.

He added: “We provide local companies with access to specific business opportunities, while at the same time assisting them to raise their operating and quality standards to meet Shell’s global standards.

“This helps them compete globally, which diversifies and strengthens Qatar’s economy, in line with Qatar Shell’s goal of delivering sustainable impact in support of the Qatar National Vision 2030.”

The four contracts to be signed will bring the total number of agreements to 18 under the initiative. The 19th contract is slated to be signed in a few weeks, he said.

The four SMEs will have up to 18 months to raise their technical and quality assurance capabilities to Shell’s global standard. For its part, QDB offers access to funding, business advisory support, and local regulatory and support institutions, as well as links to potential strategic partners to enable the businesses to compete on a global level.

Page 3: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Ahmed said SMEs are “an increasingly visible part of Qatar’s growth,” contributing nearly 20% of the overall economy and employing nearly 100,000 people.

While the SME awarding ceremony rewards adult Qatari entrepreneurs, he said the Enterprise Challenge Qatar (ECQ) provides the next generation of local business leaders the opportunity to demonstrate their skills.

ECQ is a business simulation competition run in secondary schools and universities nationwide by Bedaya and Qatar Shell.

The programme consists of an ethical business challenge to test the participants’ ability to balance the economic, environmental, and social performance of their company; a business simulation element to familiarises students with general business such as finance, sales, and production; and the business pitch, a recent addition in which participants present their ideas to a panel of judges.

Last year, a team from Ahmed bin Hanbal Boys School won for a project that involved planting crops on school premises and selling them to the canteen as fresh ingredients. In the university competition, the winner from the College of the North Atlantic-Qatar (CNA-Q) created an online mobile application that connects amateur footballers with other players.

Ali Reyad al-Ansari, media relations manager at Qatar Shell, said: “At Qatar Shell, we recognise that cultivating and nurturing entrepreneurship begins with another kind of investment – in young minds.

“Therefore, providing students with business skills and the practical tools to ultimately succeed in a real business environment is of crucial importance to fulfil the goals of the Qatar National Vision 2030.”

Page 4: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Nigeria and Morocco sign gas pipeline deal to link Africa to Europe Source: Reuters

Nigeria and Morocco have signed a joint venture to construct a gas pipeline that will connect the two nations as well as some other African countries to Europe, Nigeria's minister of foreign affairs said on Saturday.

The agreement was reached during a visit by the Morocco's King Mohammed to the Nigerian capital Abuja, Geoffrey Onyema, the minister, said, adding that the pipeline project would be designed with the participation of all stakeholders.

'In this agreement both countries agreed to study and take concrete steps toward the promotion of a regional gas pipeline project that will connect Nigeria's gas resources, those of several West African countries and Morocco,' Onyema told reporters in Abuja.

Onyema said the project aimed to create a competitive regional electricity market with the potential to be connected to the European energy markets.

No timeline was given for when the pipeline construction work will start and how much it will cost.

Nigeria is rich in hydrocarbons but produces little electricity, making its industries uncompetitive. Its economy now faces a recession caused by a plunge in crude prices.

Militants in its oil producing heartland of the Niger Delta have also blown up pipelines in a quest for a bigger share of Nigeria's oil wealth, which has cut crude output this year.

'Nigeria and the Kingdom of Morocco also agreed to develop integrated industrial clusters in the sub-region in sectors such as manufacturing, Agro-business and fertilizers to attract foreign capital and improve export competitiveness' the foreign minister added.

Page 5: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

Saudi King Salman inaugurates mega-projects Sadara and Satorp http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_317503.html -- Tradearabia News service

The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has inaugurated the Sadara Chemical Company (Sadara) and the Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Co (Satorp).

The two projects are among the largest facilities in the refining and petrochemicals industries that support the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.

The Vision aims to create new industries that will help provide new job opportunities for Saudis, as well as attract foreign investment to the kingdom. Sadara and Satorp are aligned with these objectives and are the result of successful partnerships between Saudi Aramco and two global companies—The Dow Chemical Company and Total—which are leaders in their respective areas of business.

Khalid Al Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources and chairman of Saudi Aramco said: “Sadara and Satorp represents a bold undertaking for Saudi Aramco and its respective partners, Dow Chemical and Total. It is a major driver in achieving our goals of greater integration and value addition. Sadara and Satorp represents the concrete realization of our distinct yet complementary corporate visions - it is one way in which Saudi Aramco is helping to deliver on its abiding commitment to the kingdom.”

SADARA PROJECT

Page 6: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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The Sadara project is the largest integrated chemicals complex in the world to be built in one phase. It is a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and The Dow Chemical Company in Jubail Industrial City in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. The first phase commenced operations in 2015, and the remaining operating units are scheduled for completion by the end of 2016. The production capacity is more than three million tons of various plastics and chemicals product annually.

Amin Nasser, president & CEO of Saudi Aramco, said: “Sadara is a huge testament to the power of partnership. We have faced many challenges over the years – complex technological challenges, economic uncertainty - but both parent companies stood firm to make Sadara a reality. The Sadara project contributes to the development of the manufacturing and the technology industries in the kingdom, and will have a great impact on the economy, directly and indirectly.”

The foreign direct investment used to establish Sadara is the largest in the Saudi petrochemicals industry. The company is the cornerstone of Saudi Aramco’s strategy to achieve integration in processing and refining to produce high value chemicals and benefit all stakeholders.

The partnership with Dow Chemical allows Saudi Aramco to unleash its full potential in chemicals and to benefit from innovative technologies in producing high value chemicals never before produced in the kingdom.

The refining, processing and marketing projects will help Saudi Aramco achieve the maximum value possible from hydrocarbons in the kingdom and establish new industries to create more jobs for Saudis. Through 14 newly introduced technologies, the project ushers the kingdom into a new age of economic diversification, new products and job opportunities.

Sadara is the first chemicals complex in the GCC region that uses naphtha as feedstock. The complex has a unit to crack naphtha that can process 85 million standard square feet of ethane and 53,000 barrels per day of naphtha as a feedstock to produce three million tons of high value and high performance plastics annually.

Page 7: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Once fully operational at maximum capacity, the project will employ more than 4,000 people. In addition, the PlasChem Park, a world-class industrial park for chemical and conversion industries created by a collaboration between Sadara and the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu, will create 15,000 direct and indirect job opportunities for Saudis in Jubail alone.

SATORP PROJECT

The Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Co (Satorp), a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Total in Jubail, will support Saudi Aramco’s efforts to expand the value chain and achieve maximum value from the kingdom’s resources.

It can process 400,000 barrels of heavy Arabian crude daily into low-sulfur gasoline, diesel and jets fuel that comply with the standards in the United States, Europe and Japan. It also produces more than one million tonnes of paraxylene, benzene, sulphur and pure petroleum coke that fuels cement plants and electric power stations.

Nasser, stressed the importance of projects such as Satorp to further stimulate the kingdom’s economy. “The kingdom will benefit from the commercial activities of Satorp. It will have a kingdom-wide effect, and Satorp will provide the additional boost for Saudi Aramco to become a fully integrated energy and chemicals leader which augurs well for its larger portfolio diversification agenda.”

This joint venture will create approximately 5,700 new direct and indirect jobs and will serve Saudi Aramco’s vision to become among the world’s top three refiners. The venture showcases the positive impact of foreign direct investments on the Saudi economy. The construction of the project involved 45,000 workers with 80 per cent of the work performed by local subcontractors with a Saudisation rate of 65 per cent. --

Page 8: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

UK: Statoil starts production drilling on Mariner field in UK North Sea Source: Statoil

Production drilling has started on the Statoil operated Mariner fieldin the UK North Sea. Up to five wells will be drilled before the Mariner A platform hook up and commissioning activity starts next summer. First oil is expected to be produced from Mariner in 2018.

Hedda Felin, managing director, Statoil Production UK said, 'This is an exciting period for us as a UKCS operator as we transition from the planning phase to active offshore operations.'

'Predrilling enables production to reach plateau levels more quickly after the start of operations on Mariner A. It will also be an important learning period for us in terms of understanding the reservoir and identifying potential efficiencies for future wells, with safety and the protection of the environment being our fundamental priorities.'

The Noble Lloyd Noble, the largest jack-up rig in the world, is currently positioned over the Mariner jacket which was installed in 2015. The first production wells will be drilled through a well deck on the jacket. Up to five wells will be drilled before the platform topside modules arrive mid-2017. In total up to 100 reservoir targets could be drilled over the lifetime of the Mariner field, based on the current development strategy.

Statoil has worked closely with major contractors Noble Drilling and Schlumberger to ensure safe and cost-effective operations. The rig contract was awarded to Noble Drilling in 2013, followed by the contract award for integrated drilling and completion services to Schlumberger in 2014. The pre-drilling campaign will support around 500 jobs in the UKCS.

The Mariner topside modules are currently under construction at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., Ltd. (DSME) in South Korea and sailaway is expected in the first half of 2017. Mariner is one of the largest projects currently under development in the UKCS. Contracts worth over £1billion have been awarded to date to the UK supply chain by the project. Statoil (U.K.) is the operator of Mariner with 65.11% equity. Co-venturers are J.X. Nippon Exploration & Production (UK) (20 %), Siccar Point Energy(8.89%) and Dyas Mariner (6%).

Page 9: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

The Mariner field is located on the East Shetland Platform of the UK North Sea, approx. 95 miles or 150 kms east of the Shetland Isles. The heavy oil field has reserves estimated at more than 250 million barrels of oil with an average plateau production of around 55,000 barrels per day. Mariner facts

• The field will provide a long-term cash-flow over a 30-year field life. Production is expected to commence in 2018.

• The concept chosen includes a production, drilling and quarters (PDQ) platform based on a steel jacket, with a floating storage unit (FSU).

• The steel jacket for the Mariner A platform was completed on time and within budget at the Dragados Offshore S.A. yard in Spain, and safely installed in the field in September 2015.

• The Floating Storage Unit - Mariner B – is fully installed in the Mariner field with around 20 people on board.

• Noble Corporation’s «Noble Lloyd Noble» jack-up rig – which will assist the drilling of Mariner wells for the initial years – was constructed in Singapore and arrived in the Mariner field earlier in November.

• The rig, the largest jack up in the world, stands 215m tall.

• The pipelines are installed in the Mariner field, and other subsea, umbilical, risers and flowline (SURF) operations have been completed.

Page 10: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

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or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

US: BP approves Mad Dog P#2 project in the Deepwater GOM Source: BP

$9 billion project will bring second platform to the super-giant Mad Dog field at less than half of original cost. BP has sanctioned the Mad Dog Phase 2 project in the United States, highlighting its long-term commitment to the country despite the current low oil price environment.

Mad Dog Phase 2 will include a new floating production platform with the capacity to produce up to 140,000 gross barrels of crude oil per day from up to 14 production wells. Oil production is expected to begin in late 2021.

'This announcement shows that big deepwater projects can still be economic in a low price environment in the U.S. if they are designed in a smart and cost-effective way,' said Bob Dudley, BP Group Chief Executive. 'It also demonstrates the resilience of our strategy which is focused on building on incumbent positions in the world’s most prolific hydrocarbon basins while relentlessly focusing on value over volume.'

In 2013, BP (operator, with 60.5 percent working interest) and co-owners, BHP Billiton (23.9 percent) and Union Oil Company of California, an affiliate of Chevron U.S.A. Inc. (15.6 percent), decided to re-evaluate the Mad Dog Phase 2 project after an initial design proved too complex and costly. Since then, BP has worked with co-owners and contractors to simplify and standardize the platform’s design, reducing the overall project cost by about 60 percent. Today, the leaner $9 billion project, which also includes capacity for water injection, is projected to be profitable at or below current oil prices.

'Mad Dog Phase 2 has been one of the most anticipated projects in the U.S. deepwater and underscores our continued commitment to the Gulf of Mexico,' said Richard Morrison, president of BP’s Gulf of Mexico business. 'The project team showed tremendous discipline and arrived at a far better and more resilient concept that we expect to generate strong returns for years to come, even in a low oil price environment.'

While BP has reached a final investment decision (FID) on Mad Dog Phase 2, BHP Billiton and Chevron, for the Union Oil Company of California interest, are expected to make a final investment decision in the future.

BP discovered the Mad Dog field in 1998 and began production there with its first platform in 2005. Continued appraisal drilling in the field during 2009 and 2011 doubled the resource estimate of the Mad Dog field to more than 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, spurring the need for another platform at the field.

The second Mad Dog platform will be moored approx. six miles to the southwest of the existing Mad Dog platform, which is located in 4,500 feet of water about 190 miles south of New Orleans. The current Mad Dog platform has the capacity to produce up to 80,000 gross barrels of oil and 60 million gross cubic feet of natural gas per day.

BP plans to add approx. 800,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day of new production globally from projects starting up between 2016 and 2020.

Page 11: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

NewBase 04 December - 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil Prices settle at $51.68 & $54.35 posts biggest weekly gain since Feb 2011

Oil prices edged higher on Friday, with Brent crude on track for its biggest weekly rally since 2009, following OPEC's decision to cut crude output in order to rein in a global glut.

The market's focus now shifts to the implementation and impact of OPEC's first production agreement since 2008, which will be joined by non-OPEC producers.

Crude prices on Friday were pressured by data showing oil output in Russia rose in November to a post-Soviet high and news that Moscow would use its record November oil production as its baseline when it cuts output.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled up 62 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $51.68. The 5-day gain of 12.2 percent was the best weekly performance since February, 2011. Front-month Brent crude futures were up 41 cents at $54.35 per barrel by 2:37 p.m. ET (1937 GMT). The contract was up about 15 percent this week.

Traders said profit-taking ahead of the weekend kept a lid on any more significant price gains. A weak dollar, however, helped offset some of that pressure. The greenback slipped against a basket of currencies after the U.S. November jobs report.

Oil price special

coverage

Page 12: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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"The petroleum markets have settled into quieter mixed flows as the waves created by Wednesday's OPEC announcement gradually dissipate, with some light profit taking emerging in crude oil," said Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citigroup.

"A weaker U.S. dollar is typically supportive for commodity prices and may have helped steady crude oil from the lows in today's trade."

Also on Friday, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported the U.S. oil rig count rose by 3 to a total of 477. At this time last year, drillers were operating 545 oil rigs.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for a third of global oil supply, will reduce production starting in January by 1.2 million barrels per day, or over 3 percent, to 32.5 million bpd.

As part of the OPEC deal, Russia has promised to gradually cut its crude output by up to 300,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2017. Russia and other non-OPEC producer are set to meet with OPEC on Dec. 9.

"There are still several open questions regarding compliance and the role of so-called 'key non-OPEC countries' in deepening the OPEC cut by a further 600,000 barrels per day (bpd)," JBC Energy said in a note.

The worst is over: Opec deal marks a turning point

Late on Wednesday, Opec announced a deal more far reaching and with greater participation than anyone expected. Whereas Opec had targeted cuts of 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day in late September, the producers’ group pulled a 1.2 million bpd rabbit out of the hat. True, the increased cuts only put production back where the Saudis were hoping in September, but cobbling together such a programme constitutes both a major effort and shining achievement.

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Importantly, the agreement was largely balanced, with cuts of 4.6 per cent essentially across the board. As anticipated, Libya and Nigeria were exempt, as both are struggling with outages that are the result of war, sabotage and insurrection. Indonesia was sent packing, its membership in Opec suspended. An oil importer like Indonesia is going to feel out of place in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Iran also received special dispensation, winning permission to raise production to 3.8 million bpd. But otherwise, everyone else kicked in. Or was kicked around. Iraq took a few blows, as its claims for additional production to fight ISIL fell on deaf ears. Indeed, Iraq has been reclaimed by Opec from which it had been either excluded, under Saddam Hussein, or exempt as it tried to rebuild its economy and oil exports after the fall of the dictator. The go-go days of headlong Iraqi oil production growth may be over as Opec reasserts control over its production possibilities.

The second- and third-tier Opec countries – Algeria, Angola, Venezuela, Ecuador and Gabon – all promised to toe the line. Even more intriguing was the broad participation of non-Opec members. Russia, which had offered only a freeze, appeared to accept a cut of 300,000 bpd. This was a linchpin to the deal. Had the Russians held their recent high production levels, the Saudis would have felt cheated of market share and the deal could have died right there. But the Russians stepped up and joined Opec in a production cut. If Indonesia was sent home, Russia has all but become a member of the Opec club.

Participation did not stop there. Mexico, Oman and Kazakhstan have all offered cuts, probably in the 275,000 bpd range. Some of the cuts are self-serving. Mexico and Venezuela are struggling to hold current output and have simply offered expected declines as actual contributions to the effort. Still, a cut is a cut, even if involuntary.

Add it all up, and when the dust settles, supply reductions of 1.74 million bpd are on the cards. This is remarkable in scope and the most compelling Opec coordinated action since 1980.

That so many Opec and non-Opec countries took part speaks volumes to the travails of the oil exporters. As a group, they are ready to throw in the towel and work together to restore sanity to the market.

Will the deal work? Historically, actual compliance with agreed cuts has averaged about 70 per cent for Opec. Thus, pledges of 1.74 million bpd on paper might translate into cuts of 1.2 million bpd in practice. That’s still a big cut, and a substantial help in clearing the market. The oil cognoscenti believe this will clear global excess crude and product inventories – estimated at just under 400 million barrels – by mid-2017, with heavy draws continuing into the second half of next year. This may prove to be a bit optimistic but excess inventories could easily clear within a year.

As inventories clear, market dynamics will change markedly. If promised cuts stick, we will see a bit of a supply shock in late summer.

US shale output is unlikely to respond quickly enough to cover the emerging gap. How will Opec respond? The current deal lasts only six months and some analysts posit that production will surge as the agreement expires. On the other hand, Opec members may want to become accustomed to being other than broke and prefer to re-enter the market more gradually.

Assuming Middle East politics does not deteriorate, the success of this round may well encourage a coordinated response as Opec allocates the market, at one level, between itself and US shales, and on another among Opec members themselves. For example, if demand is to grow by 1.2 million bpd, Opec may decide to claim 800,000 bpd, which is then allocated among various members, with, say, Iran and Iraq collectively claiming perhaps 400,000 bpd of the total.

Page 14: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 04 Dec. 2016

Electric Cars Could Take an OPEC-Sized Bite From Oil Demand by Jessica Shankleman A boom in electric vehicles made by the likes of Tesla Motors Inc. could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand by 2035, according to the oil industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. While battery-powered cars and trucks today represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are expected to take off after 2025 as governments move to tackle pollution and costs fall, the Houston-based analyst said. By 2035 so-called EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market -- in the range of the production cut OPEC and its allies agreed this week in order to end a three-year crude surplus. “Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

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Wood Mackenzie’s view echoes the International Energy Agency, which last month forecast global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs. The agency expects total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035. That will rise to 13 million barrels a day by 2040, which amounts of about 14 percent of estimated crude oil demand in 2016, the London-based researcher said. Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, Wood Mackenzie said.

On Friday Athens, Madrid, Mexico City and Paris pledged to phase out diesel vehicles by 2025 in a battle against pollution, a move that could further stimulate demand for EVs that have zero tailpipe emissions. Regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs, Gelder said. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.” Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”

Page 16: Energy news from new base  04 december 975

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance

agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 04 December 2015 K. Al Awadi


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