Energy Outlook: A View to 2040 Nazeer Bhore Detroit Automotive Petroleum Forum Detroit, MI April 16, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Transcript
Energy Outlook:A View to 2040
Nazeer Bhore
Detroit Automotive Petroleum ForumDetroit, MI
April 16, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
100 countries
15 demandsectors
Residential
Commercial
Lt. Transportation
Hvy. Transportation
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Chemicals
Asphalt
Lubricants
Flaring
Energy Industry
Agriculture
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Motor Gasoline
Distillate
Naphtha
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
LPG
Lubes
Asphalt
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
20 fuel types
Solar
Wind
Bio-mogas
Bio-distillate
Electricity
Market Heat
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Technology & Policy
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Trade Flows
Energy Saved ~500
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUsEnergy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
1.0%
Global Progress Drives Demand
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Demand by SectorQuadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Energy Industry
Chemicals
Heavy Industry
Other
Percent Share
By Sector
Industrial Energy DemandBy Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
By FuelPercent Share
OtherOil
NGLsNaphthaOther
Electricity
Coal
Gas
Industrial Energy DemandBy Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
technologies for fuel productionshorter-term• energy efficiency• flare reduction• cogeneration
longer-term• second generation bio-fuels• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Technologies for Light Duty Transportwell-to-wheels basis
crude recovery
crude transportation
crude refining to products
product storage & transportation
retail site
gasoline vehicle
production of fuel20% GHG/mile
technologies for consumers’ use of fuelshorter-term • conventional vehicle technology improvements
− “HCCI” or “CAI”; fuel cell (e.g. on-board H2 generator)− plug-in hybrid and EV (e.g. lithium ion battery materials)
Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005
Consumers’ use of fuel80% GHG/mile
Range of Average Vehicle EfficiencyOn-Road Miles per Gallon
U.S.
Average Fleet
Europe
Light Duty Vehicle EfficiencyCar Fleet by TypeMillion Cars
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Mix by RegionAsia PacificMBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet FuelFuel Oil
Other
Natural Gas
North AmericaMBDOE
EuropeMBDOE
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
0
2
4
6
8
10
AP NA LA ME EU RC AF
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Natural Gas Into TransportationBy SectorBCFD
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
2040 by RegionBCFD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity generation
Electricity DemandGlobal Electrical Demand by SectorThousand TWh
Residential
Commercial
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Transportation
Global Electrical Demand by FuelThousand TWh
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2040
1000 KWh per Capita
Population (Billions)
Electricity Use
Electricity Use by Region
Growth in Electricity Demand
2010 – 2040~90%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CCS Onshore Wind
Gas
Coal
Gas
Plant Cost, Startup 20302013 cents/kWh
Coal Nuclear
$60/tonne of CO2
$0/tonne
Solar PV Utility
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
Economic Choices for U.S. ElectricityBaseload Intermittent
Reliability Cost*
Reliability Cost*
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CCS Use for Power GenerationLeast Cost Generation Technology Zones
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Gas Price, $/MBtu
CO
2 C
ost ,
$/T
Gas CCGT-CCS
Gas CCGT Supercritical Coal
Supercritical Coal-CCS
Source: Society of Petroleum Engineering, SPE-139716-PA
Emissions
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by RegionBillion Tonnes
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacific
North America
Russia/Caspian
Europe
2010
2040
Emissions per CapitaTonnes / Person
CO2 Emissions Plateau
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.7%
1.7%
0.0%
2.5% 0.4%
5.9% 2.0%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids SupplyLiquid Supply by TypeMBDOE
Other
Biofuels
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Tight OilOil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Crude and Condensate Resource*
Cumulative Production through 2040
Remaining Resource
Trillion barrels of oil
* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies
Thousand TCFGas Production by RegionRemaining Recoverable Resource*BCFD
Conventional
Unconventional
BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
ROW
Gas Production by Type
2012
* Source: IEA
AP
NA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Latin America
LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies
BCFDLNG in 2040
Asia Pacific
Other
2010 Pacific Basin
Europe
MiddleEast
AtlanticBasin
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade
North America
MBDOE
Net Exports
Net Imports
Latin America Africa
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Natural Gas Trade
North America
BCFD
Net Exports
Net Imports
Latin America Africa
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Technology Evolution Summary
Source: Bhore, N.A., US Association of Energy Economics, 2012 Annual Meeting.
• Technology development requires longer-term focus and is unpredictable– Benefits from a portfolio approach; Learning from failure advises future projects– May require business model innovation, especially in “new-to-world” applications– Sometimes driven by science and technology developments in other unrelated areas– Extent, pace, and source of future cost reduction cannot be precisely predicted
• Unconventional gas – current low costs were not expected a few years ago• Batteries – 5x energy density increase in two centuries – another 15x increase = gasoline
• Technologies are likely commercialized in higher value segments before they are used in lower value segments– Lithium ion batteries – cell phones > power tools > hybrids > electric vehicles– CCS – NG separation/EOR > Power plants/storage > Refineries/storage– Butanol: Bio-n-butanol – displaces chemical n-butanol > fuel additive > neat fuel
• Technology evolution typically crosses national boundaries but government funding is frequently driven by desire to create national competitive advantage, E.g. Li-ion battery– Lithium ion batteries concept, Whittingham, Exxon Corporate Lab, NJ in 1970s– Anode – Yazimi – France/ Cathode – Goodenough – Texas, USA in 1980s– Separator Film, Tonen in Japan in 1980s, former Exxon and Mobil Affiliate– Li-ion use in consumer devices, cell phone use, Sony in Japan in 1990s
• Global widespread technology adoption is driven by long-term economic fundamentals• Market driven selection of the solutions will ensure longer-term viability
