Future ScenariosMany different scenarios could be considered, but for illustrative purposes we are content with four, see Figure 18.
1 High Case: Demand increases at 3% a year until production reaches the world midpoint, when resource constraints cause it to decline at the then depletion rate
2 Low Case: Demand is flat, and production stays level until the world midpoint, when it declines. 3 Base Case: Demand rises at 1.5% a year until production reaches the world midpoint when it
declines. 4 Swing Case: As the Base Case, save that price rises, when the swing share exceeds 30%, curb
further demand increases, leading to a production plateau that lasts, not until the world midpoint, but until the swing producers reach their midpoint.
C. Campbell's scenarios in 1996; source: http://www.oilcrisis.com/campbell/cen21.htmThis graph is similar to the one shown in: “The World’s Oil Supply 1930-2050” by Petroconsultants in 1995, page 60, Fig. 7.1
Presentation to a House of Commons All-Party Committeeon July 7th 1999
The title of my talk is The Imminent Peak of World Oil Production. I would like to provide the evidence. It is of course a very large subject. There are colossal economic and political consequences. Indeed the very future of our subspecies – Hydrocarbon Man – is at stake. But I think that you are better qualified than I to assess these matters. I will therefore concentrate on the technical assessment.
My qualifications for taking up your time are that I have spent the last 45 years studying the subject both directly and indirectly. I have evaluated hundreds of oil prospects around the world. I have drilled many dry holes and even made a few discoveries. I have observed the oil industry from many angles, including its senior management. I have published two books and several papers on oil depletion.
I will start by giving you a short explanation of petroleum geology.
If you go to the coast near the village of Kimmeridge in Dorset, you will find a black clay which smells petroliferous and sometimes even catches fire. It was deposited 140 million years ago near the end of the Jurassic Period.
Chemical analysis shows that it contains up to 10% organic material, which itself contains various compounds characteristic of plankton and algae.
It is a truly remarkable clay, only about 100 metres thick, which was responsible for almost all the oil in the North Sea. It was deposited under unique conditions not found before or since in NW Europe over 600 million years of recorded history.
Geochemical and geological advances over the past 20 years have made it possible to understand the origin of hydrocarbon source rocks such as this Kimmeridge Clay. It was deposited in warm sunlit waters that allowed prolific blooms of algae. The Jurassic was a period of global warming. Britain was then closer to the tropics than now, due to plate tectonic movements.Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm
BJ Fleay B Eng, M Eng Sc, MIEAust, MAWWAAssociate of the Institute for Science and Technology Policy
Murdoch University, Western Australia
Chartered Institute of Transport in AustraliaNational Symposium, Launceston Tasmania 6-7 November 1998
BEYOND OIL: TRANSPORT AND FUEL FOR THE FUTURE
BACKGROUND1.1 Historical context1.2 Outline of the paper
4.5 Oil production forecasts4.6 Conventional natural gas
ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS
CONSEQUENCES FOR TRANSPORT
ENERGY AND ECONOMICS2.1 Background2.2 Energy profit ratio2.3 All fuels are not equivalent2.4 Conclusion
FROM SURPLUS TO OIL SHORTAGE5.1 Supply overhang ending5.2 Meeting growth AND depletion
7.1 Criteria for alternative fuels 7.2 Some alternative fuels 7.3 Hydrogen7.4 Natural gas 7.5 Liquid petroleum gas (LPG)
9.1 Four stages for oil9.2 The climax of fossil fuels9.3 Asian growth was driven by petroleum9.4 Whither the global economy
WORLD OIL AND GAS3.1 Origins and rare occurrence3.2 Uncertain forecasts3.3 Conventional and non-conventional oil3.4 Standards, criteria and statistics
5.3 Vertical integration ends5.4 Exploration and development constraints5.5 The Persian Gulf5.6 An investment cliff5.7 USA on a supply knife-edge
7.6 Electric vehicles7.7 Hybrid vehicles7.8 Railways 7.9 Marine7.10 Commercial aviation7.11 Bicycles and walking7.12 Manage demand as well as supply7.13 Water utilities and demand management
9.5 Australia9.6 Road versus rail9.7 Aviation9.8 Tourism
WORLD PETROLEUM DISCOVERY AND PRODUCTION4.1 Background4.2 Declining discovery and giant oil fields4.3 Enhanced recovery4.4 Production profiles - Hubbert curves
AUSTRALIAN OIL AND GAS6.1 Background6.2 Oil and condensate6.3 Diesel, lubricating oil and bitumen supply is critical6.4 Australia's natural gas6.5 New frontiers
AGRICULTURE AND POPULATION 8.1 World8.2 Australia8.3 Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq
SOME COMMENTS ON NEO-CLASSICAL ECONOMICS10.1 Foundations10.2 New values, new beginnings
published on the cyberconference of the WEC on May 19, 2000
http://energyresource2000.com/
The United States Geological Survey has made periodic assessments of the world’s conventional oil and gas endowment since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Its last study was presented at the World Petroleum Congress in Stavanger in 1994 (1) and the next is due to be presented in Calgary in June of this year. The full study is awaited but indications of its contents are becoming available through a press release (2) issued on the eve of a critical OPEC meeting, on the Internet (3) and in the Oil & Gas Journal (4). These indications suggest that there are serious flaws in the study. It is a matter of grave concern because the world is now approaching the peak of conventional oil production. It is important therefore that the claims of the USGS be subject to close scrutiny, lest they be given an undeserved credibility in the formulation of government policy. Demand and price are influenced by the belief in the availability of future oil and gas.
General CommentsThe study gives estimates for the undiscovered amounts of conventional oil, gas and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), using a probabilistic approach, but the United States is treated differently from the rest of the world. For the United States, maxi ( P95), mini ( P5) and mean cases are quoted, whereas for the rest of the world, P95, P50, P5 (5) and mean cases are given by region, being in turn aggregated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Oil and NGL are combined for the USA, but distinguished elsewhere. The proposed mean value of undiscovered liquids is 939 Gb (billion barrels) for the world’s Undiscovered, made up of 649 Gb oil, 207 Gb NGL outside the USA, and 83 Gb for the USA. A further 730 Gb is proposed for what is termed Reserve Growth, being made up of 612 Gb oil, 42 Gb NGL, and 76 for the USA. It is claimed that the numbers relate to what may be discovered and added to the reserve base between 1996 and 2025, taking into account economic and technological factors (6). Such a claim of adding more than 50 Gb/a is however very difficult to accept in relation to the past discovery trend, which has fallen from a peak in the 1960s to less 10 Gb a year for the 1990s (7). The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented. Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects. It conflicts with the industry viewpoint as expressed by the CEO for Arco who commented (8) "We've embarked on the beginning of the Last Days of the Age of Oil". Some of the many points of detail, on which the study displays flawed judgment and procedure, are discussed below.
Aggregation of data It is absurd to imagine that every field, basin or country will find only the minimum estimate. The sum of the minimum values (such as P95) will give a number smaller than the minimum value of the total. Statistical theory requires that only mean probability values may be summed.
Hubbert’s PeakThe Impending World Oil ShortageKenneth S. Deffeyes; Princeton University Press, 2001Paperback ISBN 0-691-11625-3
Kenneth S. Deffeyes conducted research at the Shell Oil research laboratory in Houston and taught at the University of Minnesota and Oregon State University. He joined the Princeton faculty in 1967 and is now Professor Emeritus.
This is a book for those who want to understand the principles of oil & gas geology. You will learn how oil geologists have developed their understanding of when, how much and where oil and gas were formed in the past (oil & gas windows) and how oil engineers improved technology over the last decades to find and produce oil and, even as importantly, where not to expect any oil. You will gain respect for those risking time and money when drilling wells and come to value oil as a precious, finite resource.
Deffeyes plots oil production (solid dots) and discoveries (open circles) in a graph showing annual percent growth versus cumulative oil production (page 157, right). After 1983, a straight-line trend appears, pointing at a total future production of 2,000 billion barrels. Anomalous OPEC reserve additions in the 80s have been removed.
On the same page, Deffeyes writes:“So when does world oil production peak and start downward? That’s the big enchilada. You can use the spacing between the recent production dots and see that two or three more dots will carry us to the plus sign that marks the midpoint. Once we draw that straight line through the year 2002 dot, the logistic curve is fully defined. The mathematical peak falls at the year 2004.7; call it 2005. However, I’m not betting the farm that the actual year is 2005 and not 2003 or 2006. The top of the mathematical distribution is smoothly curved, and there is a fair amount of jitter in the year to year production. Remember, the center of the best-fit US curve was 1975 and the actual single peak year was 1970. Similarly, the year 2000 may be the year of maximum world production, and the mathematical midpoint will be 2004 or 2005. There is nothing plausible that could postpone the peak until 2009. Get used to it.”
