Exploring the Uncertainty of BECCS in the Future UK Low-Carbon Energy System
Dr. Pei-Hao Li ([email protected]) UCL Energy Institute
ETSAP Meeting, Stuttgart, Germany 7th-9th Nov, 2018
Assess-BECCS
mailto:[email protected]
Outline
• Introduction
• UK TIMES (UKTM)
• BECCS in UKTM
• Scenarios
• Results
• Conclusions and Future Works
2
Introduction• 2008 UK Climate Change Act: 80% reduction by 2050
Five carbon budgets (up to 2032) so far
• Paris Agreement (12th Dec, 2015) “The Paris Agreement, in seeking to strengthen the global response to
climate change, reaffirms the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.”
• IPCC 1.5 degree special report (8th Oct, 2018): only 12 years left to limit climate change catastrophe
• UK government (15th Oct, 2018) requested the CCC: Evaluate when and how to achieve net zero GHG emissions
• Negative emission technologies (including BECCS) are crucial
• But BECCS is highly uncertain!!
3
• Developed by UCL Energy Institute with BEIS in wholeSEM project• A whole energy systems model• Technology-rich, Minimum cost• Adopted by UK government (BEIS, CCC) for policy making (5th Carbon Budget,
Clean Growth Strategy), National Grid (Future Energy Scenarios), consultancies, universities
UK TIMES (UTKM)
4
• Bioenergy resource: import, domestic production, transformation and transport (supply chain)
• BECCS: majorly for electricity generation and hydrogen production
BECCS in UKTM
5
Scenarios for uncertain BECCS• Bioenergy availability (low and high)
– According to AEA Ricardo report on UK biomass feedstock availability
• GHG targets:– The Climate Change Act 2008: 80% reduction on 1990 level by 2050– 5th Carbon Budget: 57% reduction on 1990 levels by 2030– Constraint on cumulative GHG emissions during 2032~2050– For net zero scenarios, net GHG emissions should be 0 in 2050
GHG targetsLow bio
CCS from 2021Low bio
CCS from 2040High bio
CCS from 2021High bio
CCS from 2040
80%reductionby 2050
GHG80_BIOL(Reference)
GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOHGHG80_BIOH
_CCS2040
Net zero by 2050
Infeasible Infeasible GHG100_BIOHGHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
6
Results: GHG Emissions• Higher BIO: Much lower emissions from ELC generation and H2 production
• GHG80 + higher BIO: More emissions from residential and transport sectors
• Delay of CCS: less emissions from H2 production
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-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2eq
)
GHG Emissions
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Mt
CO
2eq
Difference of Sectoral GHG Emissions in 2050
Agriculture & Land Use Services Electricity
Industry Residential Transport
Hydrogen Processing Upstream
Non-energy use Net difference
Results: Elc Supply & Demand• Higher BECCS: negative emissions• Extreme cases: more nuclear power, higher electrification in the
industrial and residential sectors
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-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
TWh
Difference of Electricity Generation by Fuel in 2050
Biomass Biomass CCS Wind
Nuclear Storage output Net difference
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
TWh
Difference of Sectoral Electricity Consumption in 2050
Agriculture Services Industry
Residential Transport Process
Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
Net difference
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
PJ
Difference of Final Energy Consumption in 2050
Biomass and biofuels Coal ElectricityNatural Gas Hydrogen Oil ProductsOther Renewables Manufactured fuels Net difference
Results: Final Energy Consumption• Delay of CCS: less hydrogen• GHG80 + high BIO: more fossil fuels, less electricity, less hydrogen• GHG100: higher electrification levels
9
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Final Energy Consumption (GHG80_BIOL)
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
Results: Costs• Higher costs
– Lower availability of bioenergy– Stricter GHG targets and delay of CCS
• GHG100_BIOH: sharp increase of levels of electrification in final years
10
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Car
bo
n p
rice
(£
/t C
O2
)
Carbon Price
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Un
dis
cou
nte
d a
nn
ual
co
sts
(M£
)
Energy System Costs
GHG80_BIOL GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040
GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040
GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
Results: Net Zero
11
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
Biomass and biofuels Coal Electricity
Natural Gas Hydrogen Oil Products
Other Renewables Manufactured fuels
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH
Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport
Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
Agriculture Services Industry Residential Transport
Process Hydrogen Upstream Storage input
Final Energy Consumption
Sectoral Electricity Consumption
Conclusions and Future Works• Influences on decarbonisation costs
– GHG targets > Bio availability > delay of CCS
• BECCS– Especially important to decarbonise the Elc sector– Create rooms for other sectors
• Usage of bioenergy is flexible• Net zero by 2050
– Impossible without BECCS (or CCS after 2040)– Delay of CCS:
• Extremely high level of electrification (esp. industrial sector)• Bioenergy is required in the transport sector before 2050
– Consumers’ participation becomes extremely critical12
GHG80_BIOL_CCS2040 GHG80_BIOH GHG80_BIOH_CCS2040 GHG100_BIOH GHG100_BIOH_CCS2040
1.4% -6.2% -3.6% 4.4% 6%
Difference of undiscounted costs in 2050 (GHG80_BIOL as base)
Conclusions and Future Works
• Link with global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) to explore the availability of bioenergy from international trades for the UK
• Evaluate the environmental impacts of high bioenergy production
• Incorporate consumers’ technology choice into account (UK nationwide survey carried out for H2020 REEEM project)
– Heating technologies
– Vehicle technologies
• Consider other NETs
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Thanks for your attention!
Dr. Pei-Hao LiUCL Energy [email protected]
14
Assess-BECCS
mailto:[email protected]
