SNR 104- Climate in Crisis?Spring 2010

FAQClimate change: a primer

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

SNR 104- Climate in Crisis?

Is this really a crisis?crisis- Etymology: Middle English, from Latin, from Greek krisis,literally, decision, from krinein to decide.

1 a: the turning point for better or worse in an acute disease or fever b: an emotionally significant event or radical change of status in a

person's life <a midlife crisis>

2: the decisive moment (as in a literary plot)

3 a: an unstable or crucial time or state of affairs in which a decisive change is impending ; especially : one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome <a financial crisis>

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

www.ipcc.ch/

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

* Governments participate in plenary Sessions of the IPCC where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. They also participate the review of IPCC Reports.

* The scientists: hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers.

www.ipcc.ch/

The Big PictureIs the planet really warming up? 1 deg C = 1.8 deg F

Base Period = 1951-1980 NASA-GISS

The decade 2000-2009 was the warmest decade on record!

The Big PictureIs the planet really warming up? 1 deg C = 1.8 deg F

Base Period = 1951-1980 NASA-GISS

The Big Picture

IPCC 2007 Fig FAQ3.1.1

The Big Picture

IPCC 2007 Fig FAQ3.1.1

Global temperature trends from 1979-2005

(10 km)

The Big Picture

What’s the big deal about a degree or so of warming?

We are talking about a global average

It’s not uniform

Urban Heat-Island effects

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/dec/global.html

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/dec/global.html

Spatial distribution of global temperature changes

Base Period = 1951-1980 NASA-GISS

December 2009 and JJA 2009 are the 4th and 2nd warmest globally for those periods.

The Big Picture

Summer temperatures in Switzerland from 1864-2003

IPCC 2007 FAQ 9.1 Fig 1

The Big PictureIs the planet really warming up? ICE

National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic sea ice extent 1953-2009

http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html

Global Glacier Changes: facts and figures

Glacier length changes; advancing (blue) and retreating (red) glaciers.

The Big Picture

Isn’t the science of climate change and global warming uncertain?

Yes- but it is confused on a much higher plane than it used to be

The Big Picture

How can humans change the whole world’s climate?

The Greenhouse Effect - as real as gravity

Atmospheric gases: some gases tend to “trap” heat which is radiated from the Earth

Earth’s average surface Temp= 57° F

Without any trapping Earth would be 57° F cooler and would have no liquid water at surface (an icehouse world)

Residence Time and Sources of Greenhouse gases (excluding water vapor)

The Hadley Centre 2005

The Greenhouse Effect - as real as gravity

Annual energy flow to Earth from the Sun

The Big Picture

IPCC 2007 FAQ 2.1 Fig 1

The Big Picture

Human contribution to greenhouse gases

IPCC 2007 Fig 2-1

The Big Picture

What is Radiative Forcing?

Radiative forcing is a measure of how the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when factors that affect climate are altered. The word radiative arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation within the Earth’s atmosphere.

Radiative forcing is usually quantified as the ‘rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere’, and is expressed in units of ‘Watts per square metre’ (see Figure 2).

Radiative forcing can be positive (leading to warming) or negative (leading to cooling

FAQ 2.1, Box 1

The Big PictureNatural vs human causes – detection and attribution studies

IPCC 2007 FAQ 2.1 Fig 2

Natural forcings do not fully explain observed late 20th

century warming

Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley, and C. Tebaldi, 2004: J. Climate, 17, 3721-3727.

And global cooling in 1940’s to 70’s ?

The Big Picture

There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.

Other regions appear to have experienced increased hurricane intensity as well, but there are concerns about the quality of data in these other regions.

It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.

IPCC, 2007

Hurricanes:

The OutlookWhat’s so bad about a warm climate?

IPCC 2007 FAQ 3.2 Fig 1Trend of the monthly PDSI 1900-2002

The OutlookWhat’s so bad about a warm climate?

IPCC 2007 FAQ 3.2 Fig 1

Trend of the monthly PDSI 1900-2002

IPCC (2007) Working Group II

Model projections for global land precipitation

April, 2007

Anomaly in cm

The OutlookHow about sea-level rise?

IPCC 2007 FAQ 5.1 Fig 1

What can we do about it?The Kyoto Protocol

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kyoto_Protocol_participation_map_2005.png

The objective is to achieve "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." As of 2008, 183 countries have ratified the protocol.

Earth Summit- Brazil, June 1992

What can we do about it?

“This is a challenge that requires a 100% effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People's Republic of China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol ...

America's unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change ... “

President George W. Bush June 11, 2001

The Kyoto Protocol

What can we do about it?

“Reducing GHG emissions by a few percent over time is akin to overspending your household budget by a decreasing amount each year: your debt still piles up, if only at a slower pace.”

Robert Henson, 2008

The Kyoto Protocol

Will Kyoto make a difference?

Only a small one but it is a start and taking it serious would have sent a message of cooperation to the rest of the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_Emission_by_Region.png

Which countries emit the most GHGs?

What can we do about it?How about China and India?

How about China and India?

China uses coal to power over 3/4ths of its electricity generation

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2008/01/chinese-greenge.html

What can we do about it?

How about China and India?

Tata Mundra, the largest coal-fired energy plant built in decades, is going up in India's port city of Mundra with the help of a $450-million loan from the World Bank (total cost - $4.2-billion). The 4,000-megawatt coal plant will use modern, efficient technologies to produce enough electricity for 16 million people, but will emit only 13 percent less carbon than a conventional coal-fired facility.

www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news

Experts predict that up to 20 percent of the power generated will be lost to India’s poorly maintained electricity grid, negating any benefits of the plant’s technology.

What can we do about it?

What can we do about global warming -now that the “debate” regarding humans causing

the warming is over?

There are two basic types of response to climate change.

Mitigation is reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for climate change, so that less change occurs.

Adaptation is dealing with the consequences of warming and other aspects of climate change, such as changes in extreme weather events. We have to “avoid the unadaptable and adapt to the unavoidable”

What can we do about global warming -

And Suffering- There are three basic types of response

Ximinez: NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope...

And who will be doing most of the suffering?