NOVEMBER 2014

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited

ENTITY RATING REPORT

NEW [NOV-14]

PREVIOUS [JAN-13]

REPORT CONTENTS

1. RATING ANALYSES

Long-Term AA- A+

2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Short-Term A1+ A1

3. RATING SCALE

Outlook - Positive

4. REGULATORY AND SUPPLEMENTARY

DISCLOSURE

FATIMA FERTILIZER COMPANY

LIMITED

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited

FERTILIZER

FATIMA FERTILIZER COMPANY LIMITED (FATIMA)

November 2014 www.pacra.com

RATING ANALYSES

(NOVEMBER 2014)

FATIMA FERTILIZER COMPANY

LIMITED (FATIMA)

Industry: Pakistan’s fertilizer offtake declined by 2% to 3.5mln during 1H14 due to

relatively unfavorable weather conditions for Kharif crops causing delayed sowing.

Major decline witnessed in urea (5%) and DAP (4%). The decline was cushioned by

increase in CAN and NP. The urea market share of local producers continued to

increase (1H14: 86%, 1H13: 81%) as higher gas availability to a leading plant was

ensured and price differential with imported urea was not made. The reaffirmation of

long-term supply agreement with plants on SNGPL network is still pending. The

Supreme Court has declared the GIDC Act as unconstitutional. Although, GoP

promulgated GIDC Ordinance 2014, Industry players have obtained stay order from

Sindh High Court, under which, Mari and OGDC are restrained from charging GIDC

(on feedstock and fuelstock) in bills.

Performance: Fatima’s revenue, in 1H14, continued to be driven by diversified

fertilizer products; NP (41%), CAN (32%), and urea (26%). Geographically Fatima’s

market is relatively concentrated in Punjab (73%). The company’s revenue declined

by 1% YoY, in line with the most industry players. Despite increase in urea and

CAN prices, low volumes of urea and CAN (136K tons and 204K tons, respectively)

led the decline in revenue by 6% and 3%, respectively. NP sales improved by 3%

due to price softening (8%) and rise in volumes (12%). Margins have been sustained

at 56% YoY. The bottomline increased by 5%, benefiting from reduction in finance

cost.

Business Strategy: Fatima envisages the current mix of urea, CAN and NP to keep

margins afloat. However, the imposition of GIDC on feedstock would raise the

average cost of fertilizers by ~34%. In this regard, high court decision and ability to

pass on the effect, remains to be seen. The company has started debottlenecking of

its ammonia plant, enabling 7% efficiency gains by Oct-15, as phase-I completes.

Fatima Group is at advanced stage to initiate a greenfield project, costing USD

2.5bln, of fertilizer complex (2.6mln MTPA), owned by Midwest Fertilizer Corp

(MFC) based in Indiana state of the US. Out of total equity portion of USD840-

860mln (~35% of USD2.5bln), Fatima shall have ~35% shareholding; 5% by a

Chinese Firm - Sojitz Corporation - and 60% by US investors.

Cash Flows: The free cash flows (FCFO) of the company during 1H14 (PKR 8bln)

improved by 2% YoY. The finance cost though declined (5%), the mounting debt

repayments (up 40%), pushed the debt coverage ratio slightly down to 1.5x (1H13:

1.6x). Moreover, high inventory level, mid-season, entails high short term

borrowings at end-Jun14 and, hence, stretches the debt service coverage ratio down

to one. With anticipated pickup in sales during Nov-Dec14, the company is expected

to clear the short term borrowing; as demonstrated historically (Dec13: 1.7x, Jun13:

1.1x).

Capital Structure: At end-Jun14, FATIMA’s capital structure is leveraged at 50%.

Although long term debt declined by PKR ~3bln, a simultaneous increase in short

term borrowings reduced the benefit. Fatima’s plans of investment (approx PKR

30bln) in MFC’s Greenfield fertilizer complex would raise the debt level. In this

regard, Fatima envisages to issue 7-year US dollar denominated bonds with bullet

payment falling due in 2021 – three years after complete retirement of existing local

debt. This repayment arrangement would keep Fatima’s financial risk profile within

comfortable ranges.

Profile: Fatima Fertilizer, listed on all bourses of the country, is owned by Fatima

Group (45%) and Arif Habib Group (32%). Fatima owns a fertilizer complex with

nameplate capacity of 1.28mln MT p.a, located at Mukhtar Garh, Rahim Yar Khan.

The Fatima group owns another fertilizer company, Pakarab Fertilizers Limited

(PFL) in addition to having interests in textile and sugar sectors. Arif Habib Group is

a diversified conglomerate with interests in financial services, real estate, cement,

steel, energy and dairy sectors.

Governance and Management: Fatima’s BoDs comprises eight members,

including the CEO. The chairman of Arif Habib Group, Mr. Arif Habib, a reputed

business professional, chairs the company's board. Mr. Fawad Ahmed Mukhtar is the

CEO of Fatima Fertilizer as well as of PFL. The CEO is supported by a team of

experienced professionals.

RATING RATIONALE The ratings reflect strong business

performance of the company on the

back of diversified product mix with

improved market standing. Secure

supply of gas from Mari field

together with lower feedstock price,

providing higher margins,

represents inherent strengths of the

company compared to peers. The

strong fertilizer sector dynamics due

to stable demand and continuing

domestic supply deficit is a positive

consideration. Resultantly, the

company's business risk profile is

robust. Deleveraging, enabled by

strengthened internal cashflows, is

augmenting financial risk profile of

the company. Fatima intends to set

up a sizeable fertilizer complex in

the United States of America. The

investment would be financed

through foreign currency debt. This

would raise the leveraging.

However, the principal repayment

shall be in bullet form in 2021, three

years after complete retirement of

existing local debt (2018). By that

time, the continuation of current

pattern of Fatima’s internal

cashflows should provide potential

to repay/refinance entire debt.

Inflows from new project would add

to this.

KEY RATING DRIVERS The ratings are dependent on the

company’s ability to maintain its

cashflows. Imposition of GIDC on

Feedstock for 2001 Policy plants

may impact the margins, causing

material deterioration in debt-

service coverage ratio, hence

ratings. However, likelihood is

remote. Meanwhile, oversight of

foreign project from risk perspective

and improvement in governance

framework remain important.

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited

Fatima Fertilizer Company LimitedBALANCE SHEET 30-Jun-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-11

1HFY14 Annual Annual Annual

Non-Current Assets 68,902 67,641 67,591 68,221

Investments 3,085 3,085 85 -

Equity 85 85 85 -

Debt 3,000 3,000 - -

Current Assets 9,113 8,564 8,329 8,126

Inventory 3,369 2,702 2,508 1,215

Trade Receivables 232 99 138 196

Others 5,512 5,763 5,683 6,715

Total Assets 81,100 79,290 76,005 76,347

Debt 30,352 30,888 33,799 32,974

Short-term 4,554 2,303 2,690 -

Long-term (Inlc. Current Maturity of long-term debt) 25,798 28,586 31,109 32,974

Other shortterm liabilities 10,262 7,034 5,496 7,725

Other Longterm Liabilities 9,577 8,609 7,761 11,593

Shareholder's Equity 30,909 32,759 28,948 24,055

Total Liabilities & Equity 81,100 79,290 76,005 76,347

INCOME STATEMENT

Turnover 15,606 33,496 29,519 14,833

Gross Profit 8,762 19,783 17,266 10,052

Other Income - 158 46 63

Financial Charges (2,028) (4,169) (5,774) (3,063)

Net Income 3,400 8,022 6,111 4,117

Cashflow Statement

Free Cashflow from Operations (FCFO) 7,679 17,238 16,041 9,531

Net Cash changes in Working Capital (1,051) 859 (2,568) 1,100

Net Cash from Operating Activities 4,601 12,243 7,017 7,466

Net Cash from InvestingActivities (2,048) (4,543) (1,040) (3,637)

Net Cash from Financing Activities (2,438) (8,445) (8,832) (273)

Net Cash generated during the period 354 238 984 3,839

Ratio Analysis

Performance

Turnover Growth -1.2% 13.5% 99.0% n.a

Gross Margin 56.1% 59.1% 58.5% 67.8%

Net Margin 21.8% 23.9% 20.7% 27.8%

ROE 22.2% 25.0% 21.1% 17.9%

Coverages

Debt Service Coverage (X) (FCFO/Gross Interest+CMLTD+Uncovered STB) 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.0

Interest Coverage (X) (FCFO/Gross Interest) 3.8 4.1 2.7 2.8

Debt Payback (Years) (Total Debt (excluding Covered Short Term Borrowings) / FCFO) 1.9 1.7 2.1 4.7

Liquidity

Short Term Borrowings Coverage (Adjusted Quick Assets/Short Term Borrowings) 0.3 1.7 0.2 n.a.

Net Cash Cycle (Inventory Days + Receivable Days - Payable Days) 28.7 23.6 56.4 49.0

Capital Structure (Total Debt/Total Debt+Equity) 49.5% 48.5% 53.9% 63.3%

Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (Fatima)

Nov-14 www.pacra.com

FERTILIZER

Financials (Summary)

PKR mln

The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited

STANDARD RATING SCALE & DEFINITIONS

LONG TERM RATINGS SHORT TERM RATINGS AAA Highest credit quality. Lowest expectation of credit risk.

Indicate exceptionally strong capacity for timely payment of financial commitments. This capacity is highly unlikely to be adversely affected by foreseeable events.

A1+: The highest capacity for timely repayment.

A1:. A strong capacity for timely repayment.

A2: A satisfactory capacity for timely repayment. This may be susceptible to adverse changes in business, economic, or financial conditions.

A3: An adequate capacity for timely repayment. Such capacity is susceptible to adverse changes in business, economic, or financial conditions.

B: The capacity for timely repayment is more susceptible to adverse changes in business, economic, or financial conditions.

C: An inadequate capacity to ensure timely repayment.

AA+

AA

AA-

Very high credit quality. Very low expectation of credit risk. Indicate very strong capacity for timely payment of financial commitments. This capacity is not significantly vulnerable to foreseeable events.

A+

A

A-

High credit quality. Low expectation of credit risk. The capacity for timely payment of financial commitments is considered strong. This capacity may, nevertheless, be vulnerable to changes in circumstances or in economic conditions.

BBB+

BBB

BBB-

Good credit quality. Currently a low expectation of credit risk. The capacity for timely payment of financial commitments is considered adequate, but adverse changes in circumstances and in economic conditions are more likely to impair this capacity.

BB+

BB

BB-

Speculative. Possibility of credit risk developing. There is a possibility of credit risk developing, particularly as a result of adverse economic change over time; however, business or financial alternatives may be available to allow financial commitments to be met.

B+

B

B-

Highly speculative. Significant credit risk. A limited margin of safety remains against credit risk. Financial commitments are currently being met; however, capacity for continued payment is contingent upon a sustained, favorable business and economic environment.

CCC

CC

C

High default risk. Substantial credit risk “CCC” Default is a real possibility. Capacity for meeting financial commitments is solely reliant upon sustained, favorable business or economic developments. “CC” Rating indicates that default of some kind appears probable. “C” Ratings signal imminent default.

D Obligations are currently in default.

Rating Watch Alerts to the possibility of a rating change subsequent to, or in anticipation of, a) some material identifiable event and/or b) deviation from expected trend. But it does not mean that a rating change is inevitable. Rating Watch may carry designation – Positive (rating may be raised, negative (lowered), or developing (direction is unclear). A watch should be resolved with in foreseeable future, but may continue if underlying circumstances are not settled.

Outlook (Stable, Positive, Negative, Developing) Indicates the potential and direction of a rating over the intermediate term in response to trends in economic and/or fundamental business/financial conditions. It is not necessarily a precursor to a rating change. ‘Stable’ outlook means a rating is not likely to change. ‘Positive’ means it may be raised. ‘Negative’ means it may be lowered. Where the trends have conflicting elements, the outlook may be described as ‘Developing’.

Suspension It is not possible to update an opinion due to lack of requisite information. Opinion should be resumed in foreseeable future. However, if this does not happen within six (6) months, the rating should be considered withdrawn.

Disclaimer: PACRA's ratings are an assessment of the credit standing of entities/issues in Pakistan. They do not take into account the potential transfer / convertibility risk that may exist for foreign currency creditors. PACRA's opinion is not a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold a security, in as much as it does not comment on the security’s market price or suitability for a particular investor.

Withdrawn A rating is withdrawn on a) termination of rating mandate, b) cessation of underlying entity, c) the debt instrument is redeemed, d) the rating remains suspended for six months, or e) the entity/issuer defaults.

Credit rating reflects forward-looking opinion on credit worthiness of underlying entity or instrument; more specifically it covers relative ability to honor financial obligations. The primary factor being captured on the rating scale is relative likelihood of default.

Rated Entity

Name of Rated Entity Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited

Sector Fertilizer

Type of Relationship Solicited

Purpose of the Rating Independent Risk Assessment

Rating History Dissemination Date Long Term Short Term Outlook Rating Watch

27-Nov-14 AA- A1+ Stable -

28-Jan-13 A+ A1 Positive -

15-Dec-11 A+ A1 Stable -

8-Feb-11 A A1 Stable -

1-Feb-10 A A1 Stable -

Methodology: Corporate Rating Methodology

Research: Fertilizer Sector Overview - 2014

Rating Analysts Rabia Ahmed Amara S. Gondal

rabia.ahmed@pacra.com amara.gondal@pacra.com

(92-42-35869504) (92-42-35869504)

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