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Monitoring exports A new approach
Floris van Ruth & Daan Zult
Statistics Netherlands
EU/OECD Annual Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys:
Brussels, 17-18 November 2011
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Why we need better trade monitoring? • Unforeseen behavior
– ‘An analysis shows that when the Dutch bureau of policy analysis would have
foreseen the magnitude of shrink in world trade, the GDP forecast for 2009 would
have been quite accurate. However, we did not foresee this shrinkage. Here, we
were not alone.’ (Dutch bureau of policy analysis , May 2010)
• It matters – In 2009 total Dutch exports was equal to 54.1% of total Dutch GDP while total
Dutch imports was equal to 47.9%.
• Its connects the financial and real economy – ‘For most countries in the world, this is not a financial crisis – it is a trade crisis.
In 2009, for the first time since 1982, global trade flows will not grow. The latest
IMF projections expect global trade in goods and services to drop by 11% this
year and stagnate next year.’ (World Bank, August 2009)
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And trade is of increasing importance
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Meaningful monitoring, ok, but how?
Fore(now)casting? Present loads of data?
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From data to insight, some principles
• Economic meaning
– Aim for statistical story telling and interpretation
• Stick to the data
– Use existing data, there is enough
• Use simple techniques
– Complex techniques can mystify users
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Export Demand-Pull Approach
• Step 1: Construct export
portfolio
• Step 2: Select the major sub-
flows
Country SITC code Description Share*
Germany 7 Machinery and transport equipment 6,9%
Belgium 3 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 4,6%
France 7 Machinery and transport equipment 3,4%
Germany 5 Chemicals and related products n.e.s. 3,4%
Germany 0 Food and live animals 3,3%
Germany 6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material 3,3%
United Kingdom 7 Machinery and transport equipment 2,9%
Germany 3 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 2,9%
Germany 8 Miscellaneous manufactured aticles 2,6%
Belgium 7 Machinery and transport equipment 2,3%
Belgium 5 Chemicals and related products n.e.s. 2,0%
Italy 7 Machinery and transport equipment 1,8%
Germany 2 Crude materials inedible except fuels 1,8%
France 5 Chemicals and related products n.e.s. 1,4%
Spain 7 Machinery and transport equipment 1,4%
Belgium 6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material 1,4%
United Kingdom 5 Chemicals and related products n.e.s. 1,3%
United Kingdom 0 Food and live animals 1,3%
Belgium 0 Food and live animals 1,3%
United States 7 Machinery and transport equipment 1,3%
France 0 Food and live animals 1,1%
France 8 Miscellaneous manufactured aticles 1,0%
Belgium 8 Miscellaneous manufactured aticles 1,0%
France 6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material 1,0%
Italy 5 Chemicals and related products n.e.s. 1,0%
Total 55,7%
*Equal for export value and volume
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Table 1: Result of step 1 and 2, the country-SITC combinations and their share of total.
Link the export portfolio to sentiments
• Step 3: Look in use-tables to find the ‘consumers’ of the sub-flows
• Step 4: Collect appropriate sentiment indicators
Example: Dutch – German subflow
Users represent 51.6% of total Dutch export inflow
Major 'users' sentiments
German consumer sentiment
German industry sentiment
German manufacturers of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers sentiment
Manufacturers of machinery and equipment sentiment
Construction sentiment
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Data analysis, 3 types of sentiments:
We tested:
• General confidence
• Order book Assessment
• Production expectations
General confidence Question/indicator
Industry General confidence
Services General confidence
Consumers General confidence
Retail General confidence
Construction General confidence
Order assessment Question/indicator
Industry Assessment of order-book levels
Services Expectation of the demand over the next 3 months
Consumers Financial situation over next 12 months
Retail Orders expectations over the next 3 months
Construction Evolution of your current overall order books
Production expectation Question/indicator
Industry Production expectations for the months ahead
Services Expectation of the demand over the next 3 months
Consumers Major purchases at present
Retail Business activity expectations over the next 3 months
Construction Evolution of your current overall order books
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Graphical representation
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Comparing some properties
Indicator Max correlation Lead/lag
Confidence indicator 0,80 Coincidal
Order assessment 0,78 3 months lag
Production expectation 0,82 2 months lead
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From data to insight: a visualisation during crisis
• Green is strong demand
• Red is weak demand
• Orange is a warning in good times
• Yellow is hope in bad times
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2006 – 2008, rise in US subprime mortgage delinquencies
and foreclosures increases pressure
First signals of weakening
Grumpy consumers
Negative vibe in UK
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First half of 2008, Negative signals persist
Negativity spreads
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November 2008, first real decline
Negativity
remains
widespread
Some light
in the dark
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March 2009, first sign of recovery
Widespread recovery
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April 2009, bottom reached
Widespread
strong demand
November 2009, good prospects
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December 2009, real recovery Positive conditions persist
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Today?
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Bonus sheet: A comparison with the unrevised
OECD leading indicator
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Thank you for your attention
Questions?
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