Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
Northeast
Gu 2011
17th August , 2011
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and
CooperationSDC
Information for Better Livelihoods
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except Alula district due to political unrest
Main Livelihood Groups
Seven Pastoral Livelihood Groups: Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal valley, Addun, East Golis, Karkaar Dharoor and Coastal Deeh
Main Sources of Food and Income for the poor HH: oPrimary sources of income is sale of livestock & livestock products (fishing & gums for Coastal and Golis)oPrimary source of food is purchase oPrimary livelihood assets are camel and sheep/goat
Overall statement: The overall performance of the season was near normal in Northeast, except pockets in Nugal, Coastal Deeh and east Golis.
Start of RainsStarted late in 3rd Dekad of April in all livelihood zones
Temporal and spatial distributionBari Region: delayed, localized with average intensity.
Nugal and Northern Mudug: Generally average with the exception of Coastal Deeh of Eyl, localized areas in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern Galkayo.
ClimateGu 2011 Seasonal Performance
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)
ClimateVegetation conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity
Overall situation: Predominantly stable security situation
Bossaso: Tension related with clan retaliation has renewed and escalated in Kobdhexaad of Bossaso district. Frankincense collection activities have been hampered in East Golis LZ
Galkayo towns: Shooting and killing of the prominent figures on political ground in the town. Trade disruptions caused by instability of security situation.
Presence of sea pirates in the water off the Coastal Deeh livelihood: Affects income to fishing communities as well as trade activities of local traders/merchants.
Cereal Flow MapGu 2011
Cereal inflow from Togdheer through Sool
and Sanaag regions
Pasture and Browse conditionGenerally pasture and rangeland condition is average with the exception of Coastal Deeh and adjacent areas of Sool Plateau, parts of East Golis (Qandala and of Bari region) and localized area in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern sector of Galkayo.
LivestockVegetation Conditions and Migration
Migration:Livestock migration in most regions are normal with exceptions of Coastal Deeh and East Golis pastoralists which migrated to Sool Plateau of Qardho and Dharoor Valley - Iskushuban
Water ConditionVery Poor: In Coastal DeehPoor: East GolisNormal: in elsewhere Water Prices: High (4,000SoSh/20 liter)
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11)
Milk production (Gu ‘11)
Expected calving/ kidding
Jul – Dec ’11Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)
Northeast Hawd Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: mediumSh/goat: low
Camel: averageSh/goat: poor
Camel : low to mediumSh/Goat: medium
Camel: increase ( As Baseline)Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
East Golis Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: lowSh/goat: low
poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: slight decrease (No baseline)Goats: Decrease
Karkaar/Dharoor Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium
Camel: mediumSheep/goat: low
Camel: averageSheep/goat: poor
Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: slight decreaseGoats: Decrease (No baseline)
Nugal Pastoral Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium
Camel: mediumSheep/goat: low
Camel: averageSheep/goat: poor
Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium
Camel: Increase (Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Sool Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: low
Camel: lowSh/goat: low
Camel: poorSh/goat: poor
Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: slight Increase (Below baseline) Sh/goats: significant decrease (Same as Baseline)
Addun Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium
Camel: mediumSh/goat: low
Camel: averageSh/goat: poor
Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: increase (As Baseline)
Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Coastal Camel : low Sh/Goat: low
Camel: lowSh/goat: low
Camel: poorSh/goat: poor
Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: Decrease
Goats: Decrease (No baseline)
LivestockLivestock Prices
ToT 1. Garowe 2. Bosasso 3. Galkayo
Jun’11 58 kg 62 kg 50 kg
Jun’10 66 kg 72 kg 46 kg
14% 8% 7%
LivestockTerms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice)
1 2
3
Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months)
Factors Affecting CommercialImport Prices:•Increased global food prices
• Increased fuel prices
•Sea closure due to monsoon winds
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate
Markets
Livestock Exports-Bossaso
Destitute Camps and Families in Coastal Deeh, Hawd & Sool Plateau LZs
Rahmo Camp, Beyla town, FSNAU, 2011
Kalabayr camp, FSNAU 2011 B/Beyla town, FSNAU 2011
New destitute camping in Galdogob, FSNAU, 2011
Gu 2011 Assessment PhotosPasture & livestock condition
Poor pasture Harfo N. Galkayo, FSNAU 2011
Dharoor Valley, FSNAU 2011Nugaal Valley FSNAU, 2011
Dried shallow well, Afdicin, Xaafuun, Iskushuban, FSNAU 2011
NORTHEASTNutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates,August 2011
Aggravating factors:AWD and cholera outbreak; Measles outbreak in Nugal and Bari regionsLow income and food access (low frankincense production, fishing and low milk production in Golis/Karkaar, Coastal Deeh in NEPoor infrastructure, hindering transportation of commodities, or access to humanitarian assistancePoor shelter in IDPs, high morbidity, inappropriate child feeding and care practicesPoor food access for IDPs
Mitigating factors : Humanitarian access in the Hawd in Northeast Improved coverage of health programmes (polio and Vit A) in most LZs as a result of CHDs. Active social support: limited kinship support
Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011
NORTHEASTSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)Urban Population: Bari 75% P-AFLC; Mudug 100% P AFLC; Nugaal 100% P AFLC Rural population: Hawd 100% P AFLC; Addun; 25% P HE; 75% P AFLC; Karkaar100% P AFLC; East Golis100% P AFLC; Sool Plateau 25% P HE; 75%P AFLC; Coastal Deeh 75%P HE; 25% P AFLC
• Acute malnutrition: Overall Serious to Very Critical in IDPs• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day• Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only)• Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with
increasing pastoral destitution in mainly Coastal Deeh and Sool Bari region
• Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water expenses during prolonged Jilaal season
• Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access
Main Contributing Factors: • Deteriorated rangeland and water conditions in Costal Deeh, East-Golis
and parts of Addun LHZs due to below average Gu ‘11 rainfall • Prolonged dry conditions leading to increased livestock asset loss
(sheep/goats) and miscarriages among camel in all livelihoods• Below average camel milk production in most livelihoods• Significant increase in local cereal prices following the crop failure in
southern Somalia• Moderate increase in imported cereal (rice) prices • Reduced terms of trade (27%): local quality goat to red sorghum
(65kg/head in Jun ’10 to 41kg/head in Jun ‘11)• Reduced fishing activities due to piracy in Coastal Deeh and Monsoon
season
MAP 1: IPC April 2011
MAP 2: IPC Gu 2011
NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods
NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by District
NORTHEAST Urban Population in Crisis
DistrictUNDP 2005
Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011
Acute Food &Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or
HE as % of Urban
population
Acute Food & Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC or HE
as % of Urban
populationBari
Bandarbayla 14,376 5,400 2,000 0 37 2,000 0 37Bossaso 164,906 107,181 36,000 0 34 36,000 0 34Caluula 40,002 13,000 4,000 0 31 4,000 0 31
Iskushuban 45,027 8,508 3,000 0 35 3,000 0 35Qandala 42,502 15,600 5,000 0 32 5,000 0 32Qardho 60,825 29,944 10,000 0 33 10,000 0 33
Sub-Total 367,638 179,633 60,000 0 33 60,000 0 33Nugaal
Burtinle 34,674 8,669 4,000 0 46 4,000 0 46Dan Gorayo 20,331 5,599 3,000 0 54 3,000 0 54
Eyl 32,345 7,086 3,000 0 42 3,000 0 42Garoowe 57,991 33,395 15,000 0 45 15,000 0 45
Sub-Total 145,341 54,749 25,000 0 46 25,000 0 46North Mudug
Galdogob 40,433 7,067 2,000 0 28 2,000 0 28Jariiban 39,207 6,341 2,000 0 32 2,000 0 32
Sub-Total 79,640 13,408 4,000 0 30 4,000 0 30Grand Total 592,619 247,790 89,000 0 36 89,000 0 36