Food Systems in the Coastal Zone: Food Systems in the Coastal Zone: A LOICZ PerspectiveA LOICZ Perspective

L. Talaue-McManusL. Talaue-McManusRosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science

University of MiamiUniversity of Miami

LOICZ StructureLOICZ Structure

ScientificSteering

Committee

InternationalProject Office

•External forcing or boundary conditions

•Coastal biogeomorphology

•Carbon fluxes & trace gas emmissions

•Economic & social impacts of global change

NationalPrograms

Regional/ Global Projects

International Network of 3000+ Scientists

<11-1010-2525-50

50-100

100-200

200-400

>400

Sediment Load (MT/yr)

Sediment Load at River Mouth (MT/yr) Syvitski and Morehead, 1999 (Natural)

Nile

Nutrient Budget

Modeling

Predictive relationships

TypologyTo discernRegional &

Global patterns

22002222200 sites

with nutrientbudgets

Using globalDatabases to

Scale up

Clustering& Visualization

tools

Nutrient fluxes

The LOICZ Typology Environmental Database

World gridded into 259,200 half-degree cells;

219 variables, of which 92 are “selected” – oceanic, atmospheric, geomorphic, terrestrial, ‘human dimension,’ special applications – all public domain, with global or near global coverage.

Developmental Partner – Biogeography of the Hexacorallia (www.kgs.ukans.edu/Hexacoral)

Relevant features:

• Selectable geographic regions;

• Internet links to Web-LOICZView clustering, Ocean Biogeographic Information System;

• Extensive and growing inventory of data characterization/manipulation tools;

Predictive relationshipsPredictive relationships (Smith et al., 2003)(Smith et al., 2003)

Log (mol DIP kmLog (mol DIP km-2 -2 yryr-1-1) =) =

2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km2.72 + 0.36 X log (persons km-2 -2 ) +) +

0.78 X log (runoff in m0.78 X log (runoff in m33 yr yr-1-1))

DIP load, DIP load, number of personsnumber of persons, and runoff , and runoff scaled to catchment basin areascaled to catchment basin area

N=168; rN=168; r22 = 0.58 = 0.58

Nutrients: Nutrients: Human-generated and LoadsHuman-generated and Loads

ParameterParameter

(mmol m(mmol m-2-2 yr yr-1-1))

RRD RRD

CNP=CNP=

1000:13:11000:13:1

Bandon Bay Bandon Bay CNP = CNP = 324:27:1324:27:1

Lingayen Lingayen Gulf CNP = Gulf CNP = 106:16:1106:16:1

Merbok Merbok Estuary CNP Estuary CNP = 1400:9:1= 1400:9:1

DIP generationDIP generationAgricultureAgricultureHouseholdHousehold

520520

78%78%

NANA

1010

21%21%

14%14%

9090

45%45%

53%53%

180180

31%31%

NANA

DIP loadDIP load 110110 2525 6565 2020

DIN DIN generationgenerationAgricultureAgricultureHouseholdHousehold

1,9401,940

76%76%

NANA

6060

21%21%

15%15%

800800

78%78%

20%20%

2,4802,480

28%28%

NANA

DIN loadDIN load 405405 11401140 425425 670670

Nutrient yield and load to the world oceanNutrient yield and load to the world ocean(Estimates for DIP)(Estimates for DIP)

Most of the world coastline Most of the world coastline stillstill has has low yield low yield

top blue (68% of coastal cells).top blue (68% of coastal cells). High yield is locally restrictedHigh yield is locally restricted

top red, yellow (1, 2% of coastal cells).top red, yellow (1, 2% of coastal cells). Most of the load comes from regions Most of the load comes from regions

with low to intermediate yield with low to intermediate yield bottom red, yellow and whitebottom red, yellow and white

(38, 34, 19% of load); (38, 34, 19% of load); top green, white, and bluetop green, white, and blue

(20, 9, 68% of coastline).(20, 9, 68% of coastline). Load will continue to grow with Load will continue to grow with

population and land usepopulation and land use change. change.

yield

load

LOICZ II: Main ChallengeLOICZ II: Main Challenge

Interacting changes in the global CZ are 3-fold:Interacting changes in the global CZ are 3-fold: Global Global Regional (transboundary & supra-national)Regional (transboundary & supra-national) Catchment level Catchment level

““Understanding & assisting in the management of Understanding & assisting in the management of these changes, to ensure the continuity of goods these changes, to ensure the continuity of goods and services provided by the CZ, IS THE MAIN and services provided by the CZ, IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF A FUTURE LOICZ”.CHALLENGE OF A FUTURE LOICZ”.

1. River basin deliveries to CZ1. River basin deliveries to CZ

DammingDamming Catchment modelling of nutrients and Catchment modelling of nutrients and

pollutantspollutants Local governance & resource Local governance & resource

managementmanagement Land use and cover change & critical Land use and cover change & critical

thresholds of mass transportthresholds of mass transport Sediment continuumSediment continuum

2. Coastal development & change2. Coastal development & change

Coastal urbanizationCoastal urbanization Modification of coastal habitatsModification of coastal habitats Changing deltaic coastsChanging deltaic coasts Changing sea use (e.g. large-scale Changing sea use (e.g. large-scale

engineering, aquaculture, supplemental engineering, aquaculture, supplemental energy sources)energy sources)

3. Fate & transformation of 3. Fate & transformation of materials in coastal & shelf watersmaterials in coastal & shelf waters

Interaction between changing coastal Interaction between changing coastal ecosystems and biogeochemical functionsecosystems and biogeochemical functions

Biogeochemical processes and the small Biogeochemical processes and the small food web food web

Trace and greenhouse gasses in the CZTrace and greenhouse gasses in the CZ Coastal zones as COCoastal zones as CO22 sink or source sink or source

Groundwater seepageGroundwater seepage

4. Vulnerability of coastal systems 4. Vulnerability of coastal systems & human safety& human safety

Hard vs. soft coastal defencesHard vs. soft coastal defences Natural hazards and quality of lifeNatural hazards and quality of life Climate forcing and harvestable Climate forcing and harvestable

productionproduction Future of coral reefsFuture of coral reefs Sea level rise: impacts & adaptationSea level rise: impacts & adaptation

< of land surface

Wilson et al in prep.

Major issues on food systems in the coastal zone

1. Agriculture and sewage Coastal eutrophication

2. Coastal habitat modification Compromised ecological functions

3. Overharvest Reduced resource base

4. Changing climate Changing resilience of coastal systems

LOICZ Wish ListLOICZ Wish List

Contribute its strengths Contribute its strengths Mobilize its network of scientistsMobilize its network of scientists Realize knowledge productsRealize knowledge products Assist local and regional scientific Assist local and regional scientific

networks to integrate global environmental networks to integrate global environmental change in their research agenda for the change in their research agenda for the coastal zonecoastal zone