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Role of Renewable Energyin De-growth Future
Frano BarbirFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical
Engineering and Naval ArchitectureUniversity of Split
Split, [email protected]
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AbstractIt is relatively easy to envision a future based on renewable energy. Present day
renewable energy technologies could technically replace the existing fossil fuel
based technologies. Electricity could be produced by solar and wind power plants.
Fuels could be produced from biomass or from electricity. Heat could be producedby solar panels or from electricity. There would be no pollutants and greenhouse
gases emissions. However, energy in such a future would be far more expensive
than it is today. This would have dramatic effects on global economy, social order
and everyday life, and therefore on the patterns of energy use. The question is
whether such a system would be still better than the clearly unsustainable present
system continuing in the future with all its problems (such as volatile prices, globalwarming and climate change, wars over remaining scarce resources, etc.) which in
the future would only get worse. Such a question could only be answered with a
help of complex energy and economic models that attempt to simulate the future,
and only with a great deal of uncertainty associated with such a complex task.
Even if the results indicate that such a system would be better it would be
impossible to impose and implement the transition to an energy system that shouldhave such dramatic and unforeseeable consequences. This paper will evaluate the
use of renewable energy technologies in a future where they do not simply replace
the existing technologies in both quantity of energy and the type of services they
provide, but in a future where they satisfy the basic needs of individuals and
sustainable communities. Transition to such a system would be possible but only
on individual and local levels.
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coal
natural
gas
petroleum usefulenergy
energy lossesrenewable
nuclear
electricity
transport
residential
industri a
l
non-energy
heat
electricity
transport
powerp
lants
Present Global Energy System
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usefulene
rgy
transport
residential
industrial
heat
electricity
transport
Renewableen
ergy:so
lar,wind,hydr o
,biom
ass
energ
y
storage
e
lectrici t
y
heat
fuels
Hypothetical Future Energy SystemBased on Renewable Energy
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100% Solar insolation at the
edge of atmosphere (1,367 kW/m2)
70% Solar insolation
at Earth surface (max. 1 kW/m2
average
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Annual electricity Potential electricity Energy returnproduced (TWh) production (TWh) on investment
Nuclear 2626 5300 1.1 to 15:1
Hydropower 2894 8680 11 to 267:1Wind 160 83000 18:1Biomass power 218 NA NASolar PV 8 2000 3.75 to 10:1Solar Thermal 1 100000 1.6:1Geothermal 63 1000 2 to 13:1
Tidal 0.6 450 6:1Wave ~0 750 15:1
Fossil fuels 11455 Coal 50:1Oil 19:1Natural gas 10:1
Comparison of Energy Sources
EROI Energy Return on Investment
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The Key Problem with Renewable Energy Sources
Net Energy is high!
Fossil FuelsUseful Energy
High Quality Feedback
Net energy is low?!RenewableEnergy
Sources
Useful Energy
High Quality Feedback
EROI Energy Return on Investment
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Fossil fuels enabled tremendous growth of economy!This growth would have been impossible if it was basedon renewable energy
Continuous growth is impossible on limited resources!
What are the alternatives to growth:- Steady state- Fall- Pulsing
Fossil Fuel Era A Short Interlude BetweenSolar Energy Past and Solar Energy Future?
1860
DifferentScenarios
W
orldEn
ergyCo ns
umption
2010
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Can the economy be maintained at a certain(hopefully high) level on renewable energy?
Or is the way down unavoidable?
Can we make a prosperous way down?Is introduction of renewable energy going tohelp or hurt?
Questions with no easy answersQuestions with no easy answers
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Assets
FossilFuels
Solar
CO2
AA Global Energy ModelGlobal Energy Model
Assets
Pollution
CO2
GWP
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Modeling Results:Modeling Results: The effects of timing
The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2008)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GrossWo
rldProduct(trillionU.S.$
)
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
CO2in
atmosphere(ppm)
Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)
CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)
Renewables in 2000
business
as usual
in 2025
renewablesin 2000
business as usual
in 2025
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The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2008)
Modeling Results:Modeling Results: The effects of cost ratio
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GrossWorldPro
duct(trillionU.S.$
)CR = 1.33
CR = 2.0
CR = 3.0
CR = 4.0
Baseline
(business
as usual)
Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)
CR = cost ratio =EROI fossil fuels
EROI renewables
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There should be no competition there should be transition- Insisting on short term economic competitiveness favors "status quo,"(especially without internalization of all (past, present and future)
external costs)
Transition requires vision and commitment- Massive use of renewable energy sources (and their carriers)
could cause major disturbances in global economy
- Those disturbances may be smaller than those that will be caused by
continuing with present fossil fuels energy system
Shift to renewable energy sources will require a major shiftin our mind sets, priorities, culture and life style- shift from the goals of continuous growth to the goals of
sustainable development !- promote energy and resources conservation !- give priorities to the protection of the environment !- new operational system Capitalism 3.0 !
Transition will take a long time
How to change an entire energy system?How to change an entire energy system?
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1576753611/ref=sib_dp_pt8/6/2019 Frano Barbir Role of Renewable Energy
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During expansion:
growth is progress
Now:
sustainable is good
In economy that is stagnating or shrinking:
smaller, more efficient, cooperation
Values in Society are Changing!Values in Society are Changing!
In economy that is growing: bigger, faster, competition
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Shelter
Reliable Food Supply (
Reliable Energy Supply (only locally produced will be reliable)
Reliable Water Supply (
Local governance responsive to local populations needs
Focus on SELF-SUFFICIENCY and RESILIENCE
Big urban conglomerations are likely to be most vulnerable
We have no other options but to reorganize our communitys life
to a more simple, more self-sufficient and more local way
What makes life bearable in times of crises?
SUBSISTENCE MINIMUM
If a way down is unavoidableIf a way down is unavoidable
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Basic energy needs:
Comfort (heating and cooling)Hygiene
Cooking
Refrigeration
Some gadgets and tools
Some transportation
How to satisfy basic energy needs:
Passive solar architectureEnergy conservation measures
Renewable energy sources
Energy storage
Patterns of energy use
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http://aiacolorado.org/awards/ http://trendsupdates.com
Visions of self-sufficient sustainable communities
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But it is running out of
Cheap oil
Environmental capacityTolerance for inequity
Money for better options
Time for a smooth transition
Leadership to do what is required
The World is NOT Running out of Energy
ConclusionsConclusions
Transition to sustainabile energy may be possible
But only on individual and local levels.
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Acknowledgment
This work has been partially supported by CroatianMinistry of Science, Education and Sports
(project No. 177-0000000-1931)