From Trout Creek to the IPCC: From Trout Creek to the IPCC: Linking Climate Change Scenarios, Linking Climate Change Scenarios,

Adaptation and Sustainable Adaptation and Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

Stewart CohenAdaptation & Impacts Research Division (AIRD)Environment CanadaLocated at Dept. of Forest Resources ManagementUniversity of British Columbia

Participatory approach can help to build the science-policy bridge

Role of local experts (practitioners, stakeholders) in climate change impacts-adaptation research

– Local context (planning, decision-making)– Data, operational perspectives– Professional networks– Local governments

Experts become extension agents for local adaptationRole of research community changes from initiator of studies to resource for community-based assessments

Broadens base of investments in impacts-adaptation research

Potential for increased support for monitoring

Stakeholder Interest

•Regional development

•Jobs

•Liability

•Quality of life

Climate Information

•Forecasts

•Trends

•Scenarios

outreach

Climate change information flow to stakeholders?

Filter / Medium•Hydrograph•Crop Model

•Malaria Risk Model•Decision Support

Tool

Climate Information

•Forecasts

•Trends

•Scenarios

delivery

Translation; climate change science to climate change impacts

Climate information

•Forecasts•Trends•Scenarios

Filter / medium

•Hydrograph•Crop model•Malaria risk model•Decision support

tool

Practitioner interest

•Risk assessment•Design standards•Operating rules•Allocations

delivery translation

Climate Change: The Medium is the Message

……translation from climate science to practitioner interest

Filter / Medium•Hydrograph•Crop Model

•Malaria Risk Model•Decision Support

Tool

Stakeholder Interest

•Regional development

•Jobs

•Liability

•Quality of life

Practitioner Interest

•Risk Assessment

•Design Standards

•Allocations

Climate Information

•Forecasts

•Trends

•Scenarios delivery

tran

slat

ion

extension

policy

outreach

outreach

Participatory approach…link with practitioners (Cohen and Waddell, in press)

Building the science-policy bridge…

• Dialogue with local experts/practitioners as part of integration; beyond serving as an information source and outreach process

Okanagan climate change study team visit to Penticton Dam, June 2002

Okanagan Study Teams (1999-2007)• Stewart Cohen (P.I.) – Adaptation & Impacts

Research Division-EC, Institute for Resources Environment & Sustainability-UBC, Vancouver

• Denise Neilsen (P.I.2002-04), Scott Smith (P.I.2002-04), Grace Frank, Walter Koch – Pacific Agricultural Research Centre-AAFC, Summerland

• Younes Alila, Wendy Merritt* – Forest Resources Management, UBC (*now at Australian National University)

• Mark Barton, Roger McNeill, Bill Taylor, Dave Hutchinson, Wendy Avis – Pacific & Yukon Region-EC

• Tina Neale, Philippa Shepherd, James Tansey, Jeff Carmichael, Stacy Langsdale, Rachel Welbourn, Natasha Schorb, Jennifer Ardiel, Glen Hearns, Alex Russell, Aviva Savelson, Sharon Bennett, Charlie Wilson – IRES & SCARP, UBC

• Brian Symonds, B.C. MOE, Penticton• Bob Hrasko, Agua Consulting, Kelowna.• Barbara Lence, Civil Engineering, UBC• Craig Forster, U. Utah• Allyson Beall, Washington State University

Thanks to Andrew Reeder, RDOS (formerly City of Summerland); Toby Pike, Water Supply Association; Greg Armour, OBWB; Patrick Deakin, Town of Oliver; Phil Epp, BC MOE; Jillian Tamblyn, Okanagan Nations Alliance; Leah Hartley, RDCO; Peter Waterman, BC Fruit Growers Assoc. & City of Summerland; & many others.Supported by grants from the CCAF/CCIAP (#A206, A463/433, A846), Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa.

Study team (2002-04) & invited guests at team meeting,Summerland, June 2002

Okanagan Basin

•Area = 8200 km2

•Okanagan Valley = 160 km in length•80% of streams fully recorded •2003 drought – water shortage in Summerland

Population growth in Central Okanagan, North Okanagan and

Okanagan-Similkameen Regional Districts: 1941-2001(data from BC Stats and P.S. Ross & Partners; based on work by Shepherd)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

Popula

tio

n Central Okanagan

North Okanagan

Okanagan-Similkameen

Floating Bridge Completed

Coquihalla Connector Completed

Trout Creek

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2

Stream

flow S

cenarios for V

aseux C

reek (Merritt et

al.)

Trout Creek supply/demand CGCM2-B2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 50 100 150 200 250

Annual flow (m3 x 106)

Cro

p w

ate

r d

em

an

d (

m3x

10

6 ) Historic

2020s

2050s

2080s

Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 50 100 150 200 250

Annual flow (m3 x 106)

Cro

p w

ate

r d

em

an

d (

m3 x

10

6 ) Historic

2020s

2050s

2080s

Local defined drought – 30% average annual flow

Risks associated with water supply and demand in response to climate change (Neilsen et

al., 2004)

Maximum allowable demand – 2002 use

Costs of Adaptation Options in the Okanagan(McNeill, Hrasko, 2004)

Cost (CAN$/acre-ft.) Water saved or supplied

Irrigation scheduling: -large holdings $500 10%

-small holdings 835 10%

Trickle irrigation: -high demand areas 1500 30%

-medium demand areas 1666 30%

Metering: -lowest cost 1882 30%

-higher cost 2300-3400 20-30%

Public education: -large & medium communities 835 10%

Leak detection: -average 1567 10-15%

Storage: -lowest cost 600 limited

-medium-high cost 1000-1500 limited

Lake pumping: -lowest cost 648 0-100%

-low cost (no balancing) 1160 0-100%

-higher cost 2200-2700 0-100%

1 acre-ft. = 1233.5 m3; 1 m3 = 1000 litres

Demand Side Management Impact on Water DemandOliver, CGCM2 A2, Medium Population Growth

(Neale, 2006)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

800020

01

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

2029

2033

2037

2041

2045

2049

2053

2057

2061

2065

2069

Year

Wat

er D

eman

d (

ML

)

2001 Baseline

Current DSM

Education

Metering CUC

Metering IBR

XeriscapingHigh Eff Retrofit

Combined

Okanagan Inflows vs. Water Demands, HadCM3-A2 (source: Langsdale et al., 2006; in Cohen and Neale 2006)

30-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Historic 2020's 2050's

Simulation Period

Flo

w [

mcm

per

mo

nth

]

.

Total Inflow

Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)

Total Demand with Residential Adaptation

Dry-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Historic 2020's 2050's

Simulation Period

Flo

w [

mcm

per

mo

nth

] .

Total Inflow

Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)

Total Demand with Residential Adaptation

AVERAGE YEAR

DRY YEAR

• Incorporation of climate change into Trepanier Landscape Unit Water Management Plan

– Recommends demand management as first priority, along with supply augmentation, by 2050 if no climate change assumed, and by 2020 if climate change is assumed

Impact on Okanagan Water Management

Moving Beyond The Damage Report

an opportunity for participatory integrated assessment (PIA) & decision support….

+ =

Decision SupportModel

Technical Info & Data

Experience Based Knowledge &

Values

Preliminary sketch of decision model(Langsdale et al., 2006, 2007)

Okanagan

Surfacewater Supply

Precipitating on Lakes

Tributaries Inflowing Evaporating

Flowing Out of Basin

Human Use

DivertingAgricultural Demand

Residential Demand

C & I DemandU.S. Border

Input from some participants at Okanagan study model building workshop, April 2005 (Cohen & Neale, 2007)

2040-2069 case;Okanagan Lake stage; (1) No adaptation; (2) supplement with Okanagan Lake; no other adaptation

2040-2069 case;Okanagan Lake stage; (1) No adaptation;(2) agriculture & residential DSM adaptation, plus supplement with Okanagan Lake; no sockeye management

Columbia Basin highlighted among subregional cases from North America

(IPCC 2001; TAR, WG2, Ch. 15)

Okanagan Study Highlighted in IPCC 4AR

From Trout Creek to the IPCC, 1999-2007

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2

Trout Creek supply/demand HadCM3-A2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 50 100 150 200 250

Annual flow (m3 x 106)

Cro

p w

ate

r d

em

an

d (

m3 x

10

6 ) Historic

2020s

2050s

2080s

Dry-Year Aggregated Supply-Demand Scenarios

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Historic 2020's 2050's

Simulation Period

Flow

[mcm

per

mon

th]

.

Total Inflow

Total Demand (Ag + Res + Instream)

Total Demand with Residential Adaptation

Adaptation in the Okanagan and Columbia-Kootenay regions

• Okanagan Basin Water Board [www.obwb.ca]– Okanagan Watershed Stewardship Council– Okanagan Water Supply and Demand Study

• Columbia Basin Trust [www.cbt.org]– Communities Adapting to Climate Change

For further information on Okanagan climate change studies:

stewart.cohen@ec.gc.cascohen@forestry.ubc.caneilsend@agr.gc.ca tinan@interchange.ubc.caslangsdale@gmail.com

Model and model guide: http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/aird

Reports:http://www.forestry.ubc.ca/airdhttp://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca

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