Front Matter

Front MatterSource: Operations Research, Vol. 9, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 1961), pp. i-xPublished by: INFORMSStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/167044 .

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OPERATIONS

The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America

November-December, 1961 VOLUME 9, NUMBER 6 I -}

Pages 771-940 4

PUBLISHED BIMONTHLY BY THE

OPERATIONS RESEARCH SOCIETY OF AMERICA



OPERATIONS RESEARCH The Journal of the Operations Reseach Society of America

EDITOR

THOMAS E. CAYWOOD Caywood-Schiller, Associates

203 N. Wabash Ave., Chicago 1, Ill.

ASSOCIATE EDITORS

JOHN W. ABRAMS, Department of National Defence, Ottawa, Ontario RUSSELL L. ACKOFF, Case Institute of Technology, Cleveland, Ohio WILLIAM W. COOPER, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania GEORGE B. DANTZIG, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WALTER L. DEEMER, Operations Analysis Office, Hq., U.S.A.F., Washington, D. C. ROBERT DORFMAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts HERBERT P. GALLIHER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. CHARLES GOODEVE, British Iron & Steel Research Assn., London WI, England VAN COURT HARE, Analytical Associates, Inc., New York, New York JOSEPH 0. HARRISON, JR., Research Analysis Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland G. RONALD HERD, Booz, Allen Applied Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT HERMAN, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan DAVID B. HERTZ, Arthur Andersen & Co., New York, New York WILLIAM J. HORVATH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan JOHN F. MAGEE, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts DONALD G. MALCOLM, Operations Research Incorporated, Los Angeles California JOSEPH F. MCCLOSKEY, North American Aviation, Inc., Los Angeles, dalifornia THORNTON PAGE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut E. W. PAXSON, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California WILLIAM J. PLATT, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California THOMAS L. SAATY, Office of Naval Research, Washington, D. C. ANDREW SCHULTZ, JR., Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE SHORTLEY, Booz, Allen Applied Research, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland JACINTO STEINHARDT, O.E.G., M.I.T., Box 2176, Potomac Station, Alexandria, Va. ROBERT S. WEINBERG, International Business Machines Corp., New York, N. Y. PETER B. WILSON, Canadian National Railways, Montreal, Quebec

MANUSCRIPTS of papers and Letters to the Editor should be submitted to the Editor or to one of the Associate Editors. Submission of a manuscript is considered to be a representation that it has been neither copyrighted nor published, that it is not being submitted for publication elsewhere, and that, if the work results from a military contract, it has been released for open publication. Material for the Analyst's Bookshelf should be submitted to JOSEPH F. MCCLOSKEY, Analyst's Bookshelf Editor, at Department 859, North American Aviation, Inc., Los Angeles 9, California. Announcements should be sent to the Editor.

MANAGING EDITOR AND ADVERTISING MANAGER CHARLES P. CHADSEY

Research Analysis Corporation 6935 Arlington Road, Bethesda 14, Maryland

? 1961 by the Operations Research Society of America. Published bimonthly by the Operations Research Society of America at Mount

Royal and Guilford Avenues, Baltimore 2, Maryland. Second-class postage paid at the Post Office at Baltimore, Maryland. Subscriptions and orders for back issues should be addressed to the Business Manager,

NORVELL E. MILLER, III, Mount Royal and Guilford Aves., Baltimore 2, Md. Subscription Rate: $10.00 per volume (outside U. S. and Canada, $7.50 per volume).

Back volumes through 1959, $9.00. Single copies of back issues through 1959, $1.50; 1960, $2.00; per ssue.

Reprints of individual articles are not available from the SOCIETY.



Ho1"v to

besIr e

on" e e ^*It

Maybe you haven't told your children the story about the group of blind men who were encountering an elephant for the first time and trying to size it up by the sense of touch. Here's a short ver- sion of the old Hindu fable:

One blind man seized the elephant's tail. "This beast is shaped like a rope," he said. "No," said the man holding the elephant's trunk, "it's more like a snake !" The third man was embracing a leg, and he cried: "You're crazy, it's like a tree." And the fourth was patting the elephant's side. "You're all blind," he said. "This beast is like a wall !"1

Supply your own moral, while we supply a parallel: some people, even those who work for Technical Operations, have an equally hard time describing the Com- pany.

We have a good example here. This al- most turned out to be the only recruiting ad in history with five or more headlines.

One of our fellows wanted to headline this piece: "tech/ops is doing some fas- cinating work in computers." Another favored: "tech/ops is an operations research outfit." One suggested: "tech/ops

is heavily involved in physics and chemistry." A fourth said: "tech/ops is doing a great deal of work in systems engineering." And so on ...

Curiously enough, they're all good de- scriptions of Technical Operations, Inc. (most of our friends call us tech/ops for short). So we thought it might be time to try a short summary that would set us all straight.

PHYSICAL SCIENCES: Strong programs in the physical sciences and engineering are important to tech/ops. We mention these here briefly, mainly to round out the picture and to indicate that the specialized knowledge developed in these programs is often applicable to the OR projects we undertake. Quick summary:

* Experimental and theoretical physics: dynamics of hot rarefied gases, hydro- dynamics of hypervelocity impacts, applications of lasers and theory of partially coherent light.

* Chemistry: unconventional, non-gela- tin photographic materials, high reso- lution photographic processes, solar batteries, properties of solid propel- lants, etc.

i



* Systems engineering: digital transmis- sion systems, reliability and test design, digital display systems.

* Meteorology: analyses of weather systems, atmospheric absorption of radi- ation.

* Mapping and photogrammetry: military map-making, photo-interpreta- tion, among other areas.

OPERATIONS RESEARCHI: This is the area where our needs are greatest- though if you have background and capabilities in any of the areas we've sketched briefly above, we'd be happy to hear from you about them.

Broad experience in operations and systems analysis-for important military, government, business and industrial or- ganizations-these are among tech/ops' fortes. In somewhat more detail:

* Evaluation of large, complex weapons and communications systems, studies of logistic systems to increase operational efficiency.

* Mathematical analysis, and its application to operational problems; e.g., queueing theory, linear programming, inventory control analysis, equations describing combat operations.

COMPUTER APPLICATIONS and RESEARCH: Some of the most interesting work in the Company is being done in this field. A significant effort is underway in programming systems; as- semblers, compilers, translators, genera- tors, string handling packages, and the like. We have constructed and are using CL-I and are now ready to build a more powerful one. To touch briefly on other computer work being done at tech/ops:

* Simulation techniques: using high- speed computers to determine the im- pact of new operational procedures, plans or equipment, when direct ex- perimentation is too costly or other- wise impractical.

* Computer programming: tech/ops has a large staff skilled in the use of computer techniques and in computer programming.

We could (and will, if you like, under separate cover) list dozens of successful applications of these capabilities in ma- jor projects, past and present. Space being costly, let's talk about Company locations:

BURLINGTON, MASSACHUSETTS: This is the corporate headquarters of the Company and the Central Research Laboratory. No need to tell you about the Boston area.

FORT MONROE, VIRGINIA: This is where CORG (Combat Operations Re- search Group) conducts a variety of military operations, research studies including a considerable effort in the im- provement of war gaming. We've described it fully in this series. If you've forgotten, ask us to send you a reprint of that first, history-making, hair-raising recruiting piece.

WASHINGTON, D. C.: Two facilities here, one called OMEGA (Operations Model Evaluation Group, Air Force), which handles high-speed computer war gaming and operations research, and WRO, Washington Research Office. We described OMEGA pretty thoroughly in the second of this series (again, ask for a reprint if you missed it).

ii



This leaves the Washington Research Office, an interesting and somewhat typi- cal tech/ops facility we'd like to tell you more about ... partly because we haven't mentioned it before, partly because it's a good example of the kind of work we do.

WASHINGTON RESEARCH OF- FICE: This is in downtown Washington handy to everything worth mentioning in the Nation's Capital. A brief recital of some of our current WRO projects will describe it fairly completely:

* Navy technical development planning; data processing systems for command and control.

* Study of transit system scheduling and passenger loads, including development of techniques for instanta- neous counting of passengers to adjust scheduling.

* Design and analysis of command and control systems; communications net- work, potential target analysis, nature of weapons, extent of possible damage.

* Analysis of air traffic control systems, now being conducted for the Federal Aviation Agency: evaluations of alter- nate control systems on bases of cost, reliability, service; optimization of communications networks needed; analysis of special techniques for high altitude control.

For such programs, the tech/ops WRO has (and needs more of from time to time) political scientists, economists, systems engineers with knowledge of microwave propagation and technology, computer programmers; programming subsystems managers, and other appropriate people. If, in any of this (about WRO or the Company in general) you see a niche into which you think you might fit, we'd be happy to hear about it and to send you an application form so simple it'll gladden your eyes. Strict confidence, of course, and all qualified applicants receive consideration without regard to race, creed, color, or national origin. Best place to send a resume:

Robert L. Koller Technical Operations, Incorporated Burlington, Massachusetts

Technical Operations, Incorporated Central Research Laboratories Burlington, Massachusetts _

WASHINGTON, D. C. * FORT MONROE, VIRGINIA

iii



PROBLEM-SOLVING SIMPLIFIED

Here is a quality-in-depth data-processing and computer service that simplifies problem-solving for you in operations research projects. STATISTICAL provides the latest electronic equipment, computers and the 1401 Data-processing systems. These facilities are backed up by the skills of mathematicians, statisticians, methods engineers and programmers to help you find the better way. And you get the added benefit of long experience in problem-solving from this oldest and largest independent data-processing and computer service bureau.

Call our nearest office for details.

<_ 3 Established 1933

~34~6~ TABULATING CORPORATION NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS: * 104 Suth AMichigan? Avenuie, Chicago 3, Illinzois

OFFICES IN PRINCIPAL CITIES-COAST TO COAST

'K,/ STATISTICAL Mark of Excellence

To the Senior

OPERATIONS RESEARCH ANALYST who wants an unusual challenge

The U. S. Navy Bureau of Yards and NANCE AND REPAIR POLICIES, and Docks Laboratory at Port Hueneme, NUCLEAR DEFENSE ENGINEERING. California is applying Operations Re- search techniques to solve a wide Starting salary will be $10,635 with range of knotty problems. regularly scheduled increases, and Ca-

reer Civil Service benefits worth $2557. You are needed to initiate and conduct continuing studies on LOGISTICAL SUP- Send personal information to the Com- PORT SYSTEMS, OPTIMUM MAINTE- manding Officer and Director.

NT Y27TIUU, 7 Bureau of Yards & Docks TJ YolWfU.P'>N LABORATORY

Port Hueneme, California (On the Pacific coast between Santa Barbara and Los Angeles)

iV



The Applied Physics Laboratory of

The Johns Hopkins University

Ji"nounces Jppointments for

SENIOR SCIENTIFIC STAFF

The Assessment Division of The Applied Physics Labo- ratory has undertaken new responsibilities and is expanding its Senior Analytical Staff. Senior Scientists in such fields as Mathematics, Physics and Physical Chemistry have in the past proven very effective in solving the types of problems involved which include analyses of tactical situations, the employment of future weapon systems and the application of the most recent advances in science and technology.

Performance of the work requires close association with scientists of other laboratories, operations research personnel of all branches of the Armed Services, and with senior military and civilian personnel.

Studies undertaken by this group will provide guide lines for the hardware research of future years. Staff members are expected to initiate ideas in support of a broad program of National Defense needs and carry them through appropriate analyses with assurance that sound results will be given consideration by the responsible agencies.

The Laboratory's locale, equidistant between Baltimore and Washington, D. C., allows staff members to select urban, suburban or rural living and either of these two outstanding centers of culture as a focal point for fine living.

These appointments offer exceptional opportunities. For information and arrangements for interview, write in confidence to:

Dr. Charles F. Meyer Assessment Division Supervisor The Applied Physics Laboratory

The Johns Hopkins University 8621 Georgia Avenue

Silver Spring, Maryland

All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, creed, color or national origin.

V



OPERATIONS RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN

APPLIED MATHEMATICS OPERATIONS RESEARCH

STATISTICS

Opportunities at intermediate A need exists for men interested and senior levels in the in the application of operations

Washington Office of an research techniques to a wide

expanding scientific firm, with variety of industrial problems.

a challenging research program This need reflects expanding opportunities for experienced

ivligxeiea i, statisticians and mathematicians. simulation models, and We are located in a residential war gaming. Experience suburb of Chicago.

in practical applications required.

Apply to Apply to

George Shortley, Director, John H. Roseboom, Director, BOOZ-ALLEN BOOZ-ALLEN APPLIED RESEARCH, INC. APPLIED RESEARCH, INC. 4815 Rugby Avenue I - 1031 Waukegan Road Bethesda 14, Maryland Glenview, Illinois

We are an equal opportunity employer. We are an equal opportunity employer.

DOUGLAS has outstanding openings for:

RESEARCH ENGINEER OR EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGIST (M.A. in Engineering or Psychology required)

Applicant should be qualified in ception helpful but not a requisite. operations research and should have Assignments will involve analyses good background in statistical meth- of tactical operation of advanced ods and experimental design. Engi- aircraft in relation to the limitations neering background in electronics of the air crew. Cockpit displays and or aerodynamics, or psychological controls design will be evaluated interest in visual or auditory per- from a human factors point of view.

RESEARCH ENGINEER (COMPUTER SPECIALIST) (B.S. in Engineering or Mathematics with 3 to 5 years experience

in computer field required)

Applicant should be qualified in toring of sub-contract work in ad- computer logic design and fabrica- vanced computer research, and the tion, with training in electronics or assembly, checkout and maintenance an allied area. of simulation equipment involving

Assignments will involve computer computing devices. Simulation com- logic design, system analysis, moni- puter work is mainly advisory.

Please send complete resume to H. L. Wolbers, Chief Engineer

Equipment & Safety Research, DOUGLAS AIRCRAFT COMPANY, INC. 3000 Ocean Park Boulevard, Santa Monica, California

Douglas is an equal opportunity employer

vi



OPERATIONS ANALYSTS * MATHEMATICIANS * WEAPONS COST ANALYSTS

ENJOY WIDER HORIZONS IN

WITH REPUBLIC

The breadth and variety of Republic's expanding aerospace programs continue to provide new career opportunities in which skilled analysts can fully utilize their abilities. As members of Republic's Weapon System Analysis Group, they evaluate, compare, and establish requirements for a growing diversity of advanced aircraft, missile, and space weapon systems c Working in a stimu- lating professional environment, these specialists have the finest facilities available... Republic's new $14 million Paul Moore Research & Development Center... a centralized Computer Group with IBM 7090 and peripheral 1401 computers... plus extensive complex aerospace research facilities a Inquiries are invited from Operations Analysts, Mathematicians, and Weapons Cost Analysts of all levels of experience. Write in confidence to

Mr. George R. Hickman Technical Employment Manager

Dept. 30L

AVIATION CORPORATION FARMINGDALE, LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK

All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, creed, color, or national origin.

re-799

vii



* a

aviation

and operations

research The modernization of the nation's air traffic systems creates continuing

opportunities for qualified analysts, mathematicians, and researchers in the fields of aircraft operations, air traffic control, and airport analysis.

The Aviation Systems Research Department of Airborne Instruments Laboratory is seeking creative people to work on problems dealing with studies, analyses, and mathematical models of airports and advanced air traffic control system concepts. Projects include fixed-wing and heli- copter applications.

Applicants should be experienced in the use of operations research, in the application of mathematics to complex transportation problems, in war gaming, in simulation, and/or in Monte Carlo techniques. An aviation background would be useful.

Send a AIRBORNE INSTRUMENTS LABORATORY Complete Resume A/l

to the A Division of Cutler-Hammer Inc. Director of Comac Road Deer Park, Long Island, N.Y. Personnel An Equal Opportunity Employer

KDVV ISXON< McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc.

ELEMENTS OF QUEUING THEORY WITH APPLICATIONS By THOMAS L. SAATY, Office of Naval Research. 423 pages, $11.50 This book presents a variety of queuing ramifications, methods of treatment, and provides a broad account of the rapid development in this challenging field. Most of the fundamental ideas of queues are discussed and developed. Many applications are described and discussed, in addition to a dis- cussion of both Poisson and non-Poisson queues with different queuing disciplines.

STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY By LIONEL WEISS, Cornell University. McGraw-Hill Series in Probability and Statistics. 208 pages, $7.50 This text describes and develops modern statistical decision theory at an intermediate mathematical level, The first four chapters develop the necessary probability theory; the next four cover statistical decision theory, including linear programming as a computational tool and problems involving making a sequence of decisions over time. The final chapter develops the standard techniques of conventional statistical theory as special cases of statistical theory. Requires elementary calculus.

INTRODUCTION TO PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS By DONALD GREENSPAN, Purdue University. International Series in Pure and Applied Mathematics.

195 pages, $7.50 Designed for a one-semester course at an advanced level, this text is particularly suited for under- graduate and graduate students who do not have a previous knowledge of ordinary differential equations, Fourier series, and complex variables. Requiring only a facility with advanced calculus, the text emphasizes second order equations, and explores both practical methods of solution and the unifying theory underlying the mathematical superstructure.

Send for Approval Copies

McGRAW-HILL BOOK COMPANY, INC. 330 West 42nd Street New York 36, N. Y.

viii



PROFES?1OINAL APPOI[NTMENT$

CQhe Operations Evaluation Group of the Massachusetts Institute of TVechnology is seeking

to appoint scientists with advanced degrees and records of accomplishment to positions

of unique responsibility and challenge. You will provide the Chief of Naval Operations

and Fleet commanders with an analytical basis for decision making on matters of tactics, strategy,

composition of forces, employment of weapons and equipment, and research and development needs.

The appointments are permanent and well remunerated, and the peripheral

benefits are indeed worth exploring. All applicants will receive consideration

for employment without regard to race, creed, color or national origin.

Positions available in Cambridge. Direct your inquiry to:

Dr. Jacinto Steinhardt, Director.

OPERATIONS EVALUATION GROUP Washington 25, D. C.

292 Main St., Cambridge 42, Mass.

i

ix



Operations Research Society of America

1960-1961

OFFICERS OF THE SOCIETY

MARTIN L. ERNST, President THORNTON PAGE, Vice-President Arthur D. Little, Inc. Wesleyan University Cambridge 40, Massachusetts Middletown, Connecticut

HUGH J. MISER, Secretary DAVID A. KATCHER, Treasurer Applied Sci. Div., Opns. EB. Gp. Institute for Defense Analyses 292 Main Street 1710 H Street NW Cambridge 42, Massachusetts Washington 6, D. C.

COUNCIL OF THE SOCIETY

1959-61 Past President, JOHN B. LATHROP, Operations Research Division, Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, Burbank, California

1960-62 Past President, CHARLES J. HITCH, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California

1958-61 DAVID H. BLACKWELL CHARLES M. MOTTLEY University of California Stanford Research Institute Berkeley, California Menlo Park, California

1959-62 ROBERT DORFMAN JOHN F. MAGEE Department of Economics Arthur D. Little, Inc. Harvard University 35 Acorn Park Cambridge 38, Massachusetts Cambridge 40, Massachusetts

1960-63 GEORGE E. KIMBALL GEORGE SHORTLEY

Arthur D. Little, Inc. Booz-Allen Applied Research, Inc. Cambridge 40, Massachusetts Bethesda 14, Maryland

BUSINESS MANAGER

NORVELL E. MILLER, III, Mount Royal and Guilford Avenues, Baltimore 2, Md.

CHAIRMEN OF STANDING COMMITTEES

Membership Committee Nominating Committee GORDON D. SHELLARD WALTER E. CUSHEN

New York Life Insurance Co. Operations Research Office 51 Madison Avenue The Johns Hopkins University New York 10, New York Bethesda 14, Maryland

Publications Committee Education Committee GEORGE SHORTLEY CHARLES D. FLAGLE

Booz-Allen Applied Research, Inc. The Johns Hopkins University Bethesda 14, Maryland Baltimore 18, Maryland

CHAIRMEN OF OTHER COMMITTEES

Constitution and By-Laws Committee Lanchester Prize Committee CHARLES J. HITCH GILBERT W. KING

Program-Chairman Manual Committee Representatives to the AAAS JAMES H. BATCHELOR ROBERT DORFMAN

Representative to IFORS ROBERT F. RINEHART JOHN B. LATHROP

Investments Committee Representative to the NRC GEORGE E. KIMBALL THORNTON L. PAGE

x



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